Updated throughout the day with quick takes from staff.
The bout, however, is not being contested at 160 but rather a catch-weight of 170, a bit of a disappointment for this fan, because if this was for Pavlik’s middleweight belts, it would write some drama into an event that is severely lacking in it otherwise. Hopkins, as you may be aware, lost his belts at 160 to Jermain Taylor in two hotly disputed decisions. Pavlik subsequently knocked Taylor out and then soundly decisioned him in a rematch. So if BHop were to return and take back the middleweight crown from Pavlik at this stage of the game, it would add quite a bit of emphasis to his claim of never actually having lost it in the first place.
Instead we have a fight at 170 pounds with absolutely nothing at stake for either man. Pavlik, of course, wants to protect his pristine record, but even Bernard does him hand his first loss, it’s doubtful that will interrupt his momentum very much. The only way that could happen is if Hopkins knocks Pavlik out, and that ain’t happening (the “Hopkins by KO or TKO” prop at Bodog right now is 17/2). Kelly Pavlik has eaten gigundous bombs from heavy punchers like Edison Miranda and Jermain. Bernard’s sneaky right-hand lead might surprise him a few times, but it sure as hell won’t put him on his ass, let alone hurt him.
No, the only way Bernard wins this fight is by decision, and a lackluster one at that, the kind of decision that comes after an ugly, foul-filled chess match of a fight where at the end it sort of feels like nobody won. If Pavlik happens to lose a fight like that, no one is going to hold it against him in the long run. Bernard is a wily old codger in there and he’s very difficult to hit. Even at 43, he could probably make Ray Robinson look bad.
As for Bernard and what he has at stake in this fight, it’s zero, bupkiss. If he wins, he’ll be roundly hailed as an ageless genius, and if he loses, well, everyone and their mother expects him to lose, so big whoop. Sadly, the only drama involved in this fight is seeing whether a punisher like Pavlik can hurt Bernard for the first time in his career and finish him off in brutal fashion. Usually, I confess, I would be rooting for such a finish, but in this case I can’t quite bring myself to it because Bernard is straight up Philly and even though he’s an megalomaniacal idiot I love him. So I’m hoping that he loses a UD while getting just enough of a beating in there to convince him that he should hang up the gloves. And honestly, that’s how I see it going down.
Margarito/Mosley?
Robert Morales of Boxing Scene reported this week that negotiations for a matchup between Shane Mosley and Antonio Margarito have stalled because HBO doesn’t have the money in their budget to stage the fight in February. Evidently Richard Schaefer, CEO of Golden Boy (Mosley’s promoter) and Bob Arum (Margo’s promoter) are going to sit down and try to hash it out this weekend during the festivities surrounding another Golden Boy/Arum showdown, Hopkins v. Pavlik.
The fact that a Margo/Sugar Shane bout is even on the table for February is something of a revelation, because previously the thinking had been that Margarito and Miguel Cotto would both fight tune-up fights on the same night sometime in February or March and then hold their much-anticipated rematch sometime next summer. Obviously, if Margs fights Mosley in February, that plan can still go forward, but Sugar Shane is not exactly a tune-up. One would think that with a potential huge money rematch with Cotto lying in the balance, Bob Arum would be keeping his man away from a threat as dangerous as Mosley.
This post originally appeared on the Sporting Blog. For more, see The Sporting Blog Archives.
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