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Shoals Unlimited: In Search of Breakout NBA Players and X-Ray Time Machines

Welcome to Shoals Unlimited, where Bethlehem will post a long-form piece on basketball once a week.

The 2008-09 NBA season is less than two months away. Depending on how you look at it, that's either reason to whip out obscure rankings because there's nothing else to do, or get started on the margins of preseason analysis.

So today, it's about the breakout players, the guys who will either come out of nowhere and contend for Most Improved Player or who, after a season or two of up-and-down play, solidify their place in the league. In alphabetical order, here's my top five picks to excel, or maybe even become household names. And no, Andrew Bynum picking up where he left off last winter doesn't count. Nor does Greg Oden's rookie year that feels like a sophomore season.

David Lee, New York Knicks: In the days of Isiah, Lee was a ball of energy who could rebound in bunches and, according to his cult of fans, badly needed more minutes to turn hustle play into greatness. Ironically, it was not so unlike Zach Randolph during his first season or two in Portland. But take those same aspirations, and set them into motion at Mike D'Antoni speed, and all of a sudden David Lee goes from worker bee extraordinaire to brawny photon particle. In fact, this might be one of the first places we see D'Antoni put his stamp on New York's rotation.

Rodney Stuckey, Detroit Pistons: Anyone watching the Eastern Conference playoffs knows Rodney Stuckey can play. The Pistons rookie performed so strongly, whether starting for the injured guard Chauncey Billups or providing scoring punch off the bench, that over the summer there were rumors of both Billups and backcourt mate Rip Hamilton leaving town in a trade. Claims that Billups and Hamilton were now expendable proved premature, but Stuckey could fill in at either slot, and showed the potential to grow into the point guard role like Mr. Big Shot himself had to. While he could use some range, Stuckey can get to the rim like no one's business, which should secure him his fair share of minutes as the Pistons gradually hand the team over to its youthful bench.

Marvin Williams, Atlanta Hawks: Not because Williams is primed to explode, but because, in his quiet, smooth, deceptive way, it's just that time. Between the surprise showing against Boston, Josh Smith's new contract and Al Horford's strong rookie year, the Hawks are movin' on up. The loss of Josh Childress means more minutes for Marvin, and the North Carolina product -- who is only 22 years old -- is more than capable of scoring, boarding and finding his way around the floor. He can fill the classic three role with panache and is very likely emerging as a bigger, more orderly, Richard Jefferson.

Julian Wright, New Orleans Hornets: Wright is kind of like a poor man's version of Josh Howard before the fall. That is, if Howard had been reared as a point guard, had a higher basketball IQ and was so scrappy it bordered on ragged. Needless to say, he was a non-factor for much of the year, both because Byron Scott doesn't like rookies unless they're Chris Paul, and because weird things always happened when he went in the game. Then, during the playoffs, Wright kind of showed a jumper, calmed down a little, and developed some chemistry with Paul around the basket. In New Orleans's uptempo game, that's the makings of a potent X-factor.

Thaddeus Young, Philadelphia 76ers: Young is a natural in the Sixers' ballhawking defense and transition offense thanks to his hyper-athletic, efficient style. As a small forward forced into a power forward's role, he exceeded all expectations last season. Maybe it was some small-ball experimentation on the part of coach Maurice Cheeks, but there is no doubt everyone is feeling more confident now that Elton Brand is holding down the four, which moved Andre Iguodala to the two and allows Young to get the starting nod at the three. The Memphis native turned 20 over the summer, and between his youth, intelligence, and determination, his 2008-09 could surprise us every bit as much as his maiden voyage.

P.S. I would show you the X-Ray Time Machine that I found, but it's stranded in 2013, where J.R. Smith is Vice President of Alaska and Amir Johnson owns B.E.T. They won't give it back, and we are all the poorer for it. But you should know those two guys will do well this year, too.

This post originally appeared on the Sporting Blog. For more, see The Sporting Blog Archives.

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As a Wizards blogger, I would’ve liked to see Andray Blatche make this list….but that’s just my biased hopes.

by Truth About It Dot Net on Sep 11, 2008 3:56 PM EDT reply actions  

An Amir Johnson-ran BET is change we can truly believe in.

by StetSportsBlog on Sep 11, 2008 4:38 PM EDT reply actions  

He will never be able to break out because there is nothing in him that wants to break out.He is a good player but not out of the ordinary.

by servaschris on Sep 11, 2008 10:44 PM EDT reply actions  

Marvin Williams forget about him ,there was a mike bibby and a josh smith that is why the defense forgot about him.He will forever stay as a role player in the nba.He is a future overpaid player which reminds me of a hotrod williams.servaschris@yahoo.com

by servaschris on Sep 11, 2008 10:48 PM EDT reply actions  

Marvin Williams forget about him ,there was a mike bibby and a josh smith that is why the defense forgot about him.He will forever stay as a role player in the nba.He is a future overpaid player which reminds me of a hotrod williams.  servaschris@yahoo.com

by servaschris on Sep 11, 2008 10:48 PM EDT reply actions  

Thadeus Young and Rodney Stuckey,their names alone do not ring a bell.Again these players seemed good because they have great teammates.But the truth is despite their energy and entheusiasm the lack of brain wave activity limits their capacity to overcome the odds that are before them this coming season.

by servaschris on Sep 11, 2008 10:55 PM EDT reply actions  

Julian Wright ,POOR is the word that best describes his game,and if he doesnt work hard enough he is up for POVERTY.You can also mark an X to his basketball i.q. because thats the main factor of him being not in the floor.

by servaschris on Sep 11, 2008 11:00 PM EDT reply actions  

Servachris, why don’t you just write your own blog, then.

by rope21 on Sep 12, 2008 7:14 AM EDT reply actions  

servaschris,
i can’t put you down for having an opinion, its your view and you deserve to have it, but i gotta disagree. Did you watch the Atlanta- Boston series? Marvin Williams may be the main reason that series went seven games. By game four the Celtic defense adjusted to try to hold Williams and concentrated on Bibby less. Thadeus Young was a major part of Philly’s success. I would like to know who these great teammates are the Young has because Iggy-Pop is a long way from being great and Miller does what he always does which is be consistent no where near great. Stuckey had a very good rookie year but a rookie is not going to take playing time from Billups/Hamilton one because these guys can handle heavy minuets and two they have been to how many conference finals? And as far as Wright goes NO is kind of deep at his position with vets so him hitting the court is probably hard to do. David Lee has good bench play whose to say with more minuets his numbers can’t double.

by biv10 on Sep 12, 2008 9:07 AM EDT reply actions  

Stukey, Lee and Williams are not exactly sleepers but I like the list. I also think that Lee could possibly become one of those guys that becomes overrated by being underrated.

by ChiAdam on Sep 12, 2008 10:09 AM EDT reply actions  

Man, you don’t want to see my real sleepers list.

by bethlehemshoals.tsn on Sep 12, 2008 10:49 AM EDT reply actions  

I think so highly of Stuckey and his potential that I would have traded Billups. Stuckey can flat out play and he, in my opinion, will be better player wise than Billups eventually. Billups is still way ahead in the leadership catagory, but by seasons end, if Stuckey was the Starting PG he would have grown into a leader just from his position on the team. They could have received two decent players for Billups probably and I don’t think they would have lost a step as far as being a competitive team.

by slim.sweetness on Sep 12, 2008 11:45 AM EDT reply actions  

Stuck and Amir… Good stuff for Pistons fans…

Heck we still got Aaron Afflalo as well who was showing off his new improved Jumper during summer league action, and Jason "I eat babies" Maxiell on the roster…

But Detroit sports another REAL sleeper, his name is Cheick Samb, and he’s going to be a monster, 7 feet tall, blocks shots in bunches (of course fouls in bunches as well) and sports a money baseline jumper, no joke, he’ll can that 12 footer on the base 8 of 10 times and has approximately 4 years experience playing basketball and is 22 years old…

Watch out for Cheick, Dumars is quoted as saying he’s light years ahead of schedule to see real live minutes…

P.S. Thanx Mr. Shoals for the web address for the Maxiell T-shirt, people adore my Jason Maxiell eats babies T-shirt…

by bwstapleton on Sep 15, 2008 3:17 PM EDT reply actions  

I haven’t seen Thad Young play, however, comparing Marvin Williams to Richard Jefferson is more than a leap, that’s like trying to jump over the grand canyon.  Richie Rich is a complete basketball player and Marvin is a player with a lot of potential that has never been fullfilled and I suspect will never be fullfilled.  Derek Lee is too one dimensional to be considered a break out player, however, I do love the way he plays. 

by sportsguru on Sep 15, 2008 5:33 PM EDT reply actions  

I haven’t seen Thad Young play, however, comparing Marvin Williams to Richard Jefferson is more than a leap, that’s like trying to jump over the grand canyon.  Richie Rich is a complete basketball player and Marvin is a player with a lot of potential that has never been fullfilled and I suspect will never be fullfilled.  Derek Lee is too one dimensional to be considered a break out player, however, I do love the way he plays. 

by sportsguru on Sep 15, 2008 5:33 PM EDT reply actions  

the only time im going to see stuckey play and make a big impact fantasy wise is to see billups or rip pack up and move to another team.

by bywee on Sep 15, 2008 9:47 PM EDT reply actions  

Some advice, SG: Try only posting your comments once. Servachsis, please consider consolidating yours—though I like that it inflates the attention this post gets.

About Williams: No, he’s not there yet. But the whole definition of breakout players is that they’ll capitalize on their potential. If you’ve watched Williams, you’ve seen he’s capable of big quarters, big games, and more often than not just happens to get submerged by the Hawks’ haphazard gameplan. Having Jason Kidd around, as Jefferson did, would certainly help him get on track faster. Seriously though, when he’s shown he can do it for spells, and is partly the victim of a chaotic team, I don’t know how you can act like the PREDICTION he’ll move forward is totally irrational.

It’s not like I predicted he’d become Jason Kidd by year’s end.

by bethlehemshoals.tsn on Sep 16, 2008 11:15 AM EDT reply actions  

Shoal -

I had no issue with you indicating Marvin Williams will move forward or even breakout as you put it.  My issue was with the comparison to Richard Jefferson, Marvin Williams game does not even come close to comparing to RJ’s game.  RJ has 3 pt range, can handle the ball, can get his own shot, assist, rebound and can get to the rim off of the bounce for a good shot or draw a foul. 

RJ has first option type game, I don’t see Marvin coming close to doing the type of things offensively that RJ has been doing for a while now, especially by his third year in the league before he started getting hurt.  RJ is a star, Marvin is still trying to find his game and probably still doesn’t know exactly what that is yet. 

With Bibby being a shoot first point guard, Joe Johnson being the go to guy, Josh Smith and the emergence of Al Horford, I just can’t see how anything is going to change for him, specifically as drastic as being a bigger Richard Jefferson type.  I sense a little tone in your post, are you upset with me for not agreeing with you?  You got to have thicker skin, you should know that us poster’s are crazy and love to disagree and think we know it all ( me especially).  Peace

by sportsguru on Sep 17, 2008 1:37 AM EDT reply actions  

In all your infinite sports wisdom, could explain how xrays and time machines are related?

by tech 99 on Sep 20, 2008 1:00 PM EDT reply actions  

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