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The Cavs, and Everyone Else: Your 2009 Central Division Preview

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Update: Scott Skiles on Brandon Jennings, Bogut's Health, and More

Somehow, the Milwaukee Bucks keep popping up in these discussions. Hmm. In any case, Milwaukee coach Scott Skiles spoke to a local radio station recently, and Sports Radio Interviews provides us with a transcript:

On what they are teaching Brandon Jennings:

"I don’t know that it’s that difficult, but teaching the pro game. The NBA game, by nature of the rules, the skill sets and athleticism of the players is very difficult. You want your point guard to be a person that can relax, play, show all his talents, and at the same time think and know all the situations and direct the team. There’s a lot to learn. He’s making great progress. He pretty much dominated practice today and he’s starting to come on. I feel like Chicago was his best game. He and I looked at a lot of tape this morning of that game and I really feel like he’s making a lot of progress." […]

On the injuries of Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut:

"I leave that kind of stuff up to the medical staff. If guys are 100 percent cleared, ready to go, we’re going to play that given night to win the game. I think that’s the only way you can go about it. If I get word during the day that somebody, somehow has to have limited minutes because they’re sore or something, then we take that into account. Michael’s been great, he’s moved very well, had another good day today, looks 100 percent, his knee is testing out even stronger than it was before. And Bogs (Andrew Bogut) we’re being a little bit more cautious with because he’s seven feet tall and he’s 24 years old. He’s cleared to go, but I held him out of a game, a couple of practices I’ve held him out because you want to be smart during exhibition. We want to try and have him for 82 regular season games."

On replacing Richard Jefferson:

"We know for a fact, its been proven already, that Luc (Richard) Mbah a Moute could start at the three, be a really nice defensive presence for us, rebound the ball and his offense game is growing and coming around. We also know though because he can guard four different positions that he’s valuable coming off the bench. Carlos (Delfino) has played very well so far in exhibition, we like him as well there as a starter. Anytime Charlie Bell can play a little bit there, Michael Redd could play a little bit there, we could go small and we feel like we have some pretty good options and pretty good depth there."

Interesting stuff, there, particularly with respect to Jennings, who I’ve already explained is a favorite of mine. But also, in replacing Jefferson with Mbah a Moute, the Bucks may not find themselves losing as much as they thought. They’ll get plenty of scoring elsewhere on their roster—if Michael Redd gets healthy, it’s a whole new ballgame for them—but in Mbah a Moute, they get a lockdown defender who’ll take on the best swingman in the lead on a nightly basis. And that type of player, while not necessarily spectacular, is a guy that can really help a team.

And since I just touted the virtues of Luc Mbah a Moute, I think I’m probably reading too deeply into the Bucks’ fortunes. Let’s talk about Lebron!

Update: The Joys of Deflated Expectations in the NBA

It may sound strange to be envious of the Milwaukee Bucks and their fans, but in a weird way, I sort of am. It's fun to be a team with absolutely no expectations. Like, if Milwaukee won 40 games this year, that'd be considered quite a coup, and everyone would feel good about themselves, fans included.

If they lose 60 games, on the other hand, I doubt anyone would be surprised, or even that disappointed. Basically, fans going to the games don't have to worry about wins, and maybe this stems from the way I was reared (as a diehard Wizards fan, veteran of many losing campaigns), but sometimes that can be more fun.

Teams like the Pistons and Bulls have slightly above-average rotations and nary a dream of winning a title, yet because of past success and pressure on the respective front offices, each squad is expected to make the playoffs. Hence, there's pressure with each game, and tension that extends to the fans. With a bad team like the Bucks, fans don't have to worry about any of that, and can instead focus their energy on soaking in all the aesthetic pleasures of a pro basketball game--highlight dunks, no-look passes, or the goofy 10th man that blatantly watches the jumbotron during each timeout.

Seriously. When you're caught up in the heat of the moment, you miss those things. Like watching the interplay between a couple of old college teammates, or trash talk that slowly escalates from "fun," to "kinda serious," to "uh-oh, that guy just got kneed in the groin." It's all fun. The peripheral aspects of the game provide every bit the theater that a good game does.

None of which is to say that NBA basketball isn't good enough to sell itself--there's nothing that beats the tense atmosphere of a fourth quarter game between two great teams. But absent that--and believe me, those games aren't particularly in the NBA regular season--it's sometimes kind of liberating to just go to a game and hang out, detached from the suspense of the outcome, and relaxed. So enjoy it, Bucks fans, because before long you're going to be battling it out for the sixth playoff spot in the East--too stressed to notice something like Andrew Bogut ogling groupies during the timeout, or worse, too invested to find it hilarious.

(P.S. Um, does Milwaukee have groupies?)

Update: Is Indiana's Larry Bird on the Way Out?

The New York Post's Peter Vescey emerged over the weekend with a report that Larry Bird is set to retire as GM of the Pacers at the end of the season. As he wrote yesterday:

Agreed, it's hard to imagine Larry Bird walking away from a multi-million contract that has one year remaining after this one. Nevertheless, two NBA management sources, one inside the Pacers organization and one former employee whose initials are not D.W., contend the team president will call it quits at the season's conclusion -- citing health and lack-of-enjoyment issues.

That eventuality seemingly explains why Jim O'Brien recently was given a contract extension. It's reasonable Bird would take financial care of his coach because a new boss probably would look to make an immediate change, the way Bird did when he fired Isiah Thomas and hired Rick Carlisle.

To which SBN's Pacers blog, Indy Cornrows, issued a two-part response. Their initial reaction came yesterday:

Vecsey has obviously had a checkered past with writing and printing rumors that swirl around the NBA. I don't doubt for a second that Bird wonders if he should return or is burned out by the lack of success in recent years...but, does Bird seem like the guy who would consistently, in interview after interview after interview, say that he's staying in Indiana until he gets the job done and then not go through with it? After reading his three books, following his career as a coach and a team president, I'd be hard pressed to find times when Bird consistently and unequivocally says one thing and does another. Obviously, people change their minds. And maybe this is that occasion. But, I'm going to guess that the Indianapolis Star's Mike Wells, and others, will find plenty of sources who dispute Vescey's claims.

And a more extensive response came today:

For this story you have to consider the source. And I don't mean consider the source in the manner of blowing off the information because the writer is known for stating facts before the fact but rarely retracts when they don't hold up.

No, I mean seriously consider the source and his track record with the Pacers and Larry Bird. One thing I've noticed from Vecsey of late is that he seems stuck in the NBA golden age of the '90's when money was no object and all of his key sources weren't so old. He also seems to have a beef with Bird, so probably relished the chance to drop this headline in the Post. Whenever Bird steps down it won't surprise me and I'm sure his departure will be abrupt and final when it happens, but the overall picture Vecsey paints seems a little sketchy. [...]

Also, Vecsey took Bird to task for whatever role he played in letting a few long-time front office employees go. They were great people who did outstanding work for the Pacers and Vecsey was distraught over the lack of loyalty shown. The problem is, the franchise is hurting financially which has been widely reported. Corporate America is a cruel world when the bottom line is in play and trimming bloated areas of the payroll is standard operating procedure.

No one is happy about it, but this is a business after all. I guarantee, if you surveyed the current staff at the Fieldhouse they'd admit to doing several jobs and working like crazy to keep up with less support.

Which brings me to Vecsey's charge that JOB's contract was extended to make sure he was paid a big bonus in anticipation of his firing upon Bird's departure. With the franchise trying to save every nickel possible, this would be gross negligence on Bird's part and there's no way Herb Simon would sign off on such a deal. Can you imagine after all of the financial doom and gloom we've heard from Simon and the front office? At least publicly, according to a Mike Wells tweet, Simon has responded that he expects Bird to remain as team president after this season.

Also, Bird has done a ton of heavy lifting to break down the salary cap and get the roster in order to truly rebuild over the next two years. Seems like he'd want to see it through. Now if there are health issues then that changes everything which is always possible considering his past issues with his back and atrial fibrillation. Plus, Bird doesn't seem to care whether he's lauded or chided for his front office work, so again, his walking away would be a shock.

Check out their full posts on the matter here, and here.

As with most of what Vescey reports these days, this is pure speculation, couched with "anonymous sources" and "off-the-records" and all other sorts of qualifying nonsense. People forget, of course, that for all the struggles Indiana's endured in the wake of the Artest brawl--it's almost as if the franchise has been cursed since then--Bird's track record as both a coach and GM has been exceptional when considered in full. It's rare for an ex-superstar to experience that much success in a front office position (Elgin Baylor, Michael Jordan, Isaiah Thomas... the list of failed experiments is long and distinguished), and it'd be somewhat shocking to see someone like Bird, with his indomitable will and oft-cited committment to building a winner in Indianapolis, just walk away because of "health concerns and lack-of-enjoyment issues."

Ah, does Vescey know who he's talking about? Yes, that Larry Bird, the same man who played through excruciating back pain for the better part of two years toward the end of his career, and probably would have sacrificed a limb if it meant winning another championship. Leaving now would be a glaring shift in character for Bird, and a considerable reversal from everything he's said publicly to this point.

(And besides, I think it's important that Vescey's speculation doesn't obscure the real suspense in all of this: Can Larry Bird, NBA demigod and Indiana royalty, finally field the modern NBA's first-ever all-white lineup? All it takes is a Danny Granger trade and Travis Diener starting at point guard. Come on, guys, let's keep our eye on the ball. This could be history!)

Update: Examining the Chicago Bulls

The heading on SBN's excellent Blog-a-Bull reads, "Step 1: Cut Payroll, Step 2: Profit, Step 3: There's Supposed to be Another Step?" And while it's obviously toungue-in-cheek, it probes at a deeper frustration within the Chicago fanbase that I wasn't aware of until this summer, when the Bulls let Ben Gordon walk. At the time, the team's failure to re-sign its best player--regardless of Derrick Rose's promise, Gordon was still the assassain on that team--spoke to a strategy that, as the Blog-a-Bull headline suggests, cares far more about profits than wins. As Blog-a-Bull wrote then:

Gordon's contract is for his prime seasons. There is a fairly high floor as to how he'll perform during that time. Say he's really a $9m player in terms of production. He's then overpaid a bit. He'd be on a Bulls team with other guys who are likely overpaid a bit under that standard. But on the court it's a lot of talent. And that's how you win a title, by having the best team. Not by having the least overpaid players. 

All indications were that the basketball people in the Organization wanted to keep Gordon. It was the guy signing the checks who wasn't so sure. So what Jerry Reinsdorf's team (I should say his investment. The White Sox are his team) gets for 'not overpaying' Ben Gordon is...being worse. Not having a player to trade in a future move for a frontcourt star. Not having a player remaining after they package multiple players for that star. Let him go with nothing to show for themselves. No matter how they compensate with the current group it won't be as good as if they kept everybody.

And I can't see them doing anything the rest of this offseason if it means going over the tax, as then why not just keep Ben Gordon? What this non-move means is that the Bulls do not care about winning. Not this year. Likely not for several years. They are far away from contention, and it's simply amazing that they think they're in any position to let talent walk, let alone their best player of the past 5 years. They're signalling that they're content to take one shot in Derrick Rose's prime, which means we can't really give a care about anyone else on the roster. Maybe Luol Deng? Joakim Noah? They're already starting to do with Tyrus Thomas what happened with Gordon years ago. Everyone else is going to be gone by the time this team is going for a title. Not winning one, or competing for one, but merely having a plan to try and go for one.

Indeed, for what seems like the past decade, the Bulls have been a rudderless franchise, operating in some weird continuum between potential and reality, trotting a roster full of underpaid young players and overpaid "gritty" veterans like Andres Nocioni, Kirk Hinrich, and Ben Wallace. It'd never occurred to me that this was by design.

Perhaps it was my NBA naivete, but I always figured the Bulls, one of the NBA's truly glamorous franchises, were one step away from entering the annual championship discussion. Just one more player, one more trade, or one more year of development, and they'd be there.

In reality, though, when you really take a second to look at the moves they've made over the course of the decade, it becomes apparent that Jerry Reinsdorf and the Bulls management are in this for money, not rings. Jordan satiated the appetite for the latter, and Reinsdorf's a baseball guy anyway. And had the Bulls not lucked out in the NBA lottery and stumbled onto the Derrick Rose Experience, we'd be talking about a team revolving around Kirk Hinrich, Tyrus Thomas, and Luol Deng.

Because make no mistake, they wouldn't have re-signed Gordon with or without Rose--the presence of a basketball prodigy just lets the Bulls cover their tracks, as they're ostensibly "building for the future." But in reality, Ben Gordon as a player had far greater value to the Bulls than the Pistons, and he was lost not because of basketball rationale, but because the ownership has no interest in exceeding the luxury tax. That's okay, but it illuminates a depressing truth: the Chicago Bulls are an investment to Jerry Reinsdorf, and they've been a lucrative one the past few years, as his fans have been duped into waiting for the future.

It's a shame, though; because the Bulls have some pieces that would form an excellent foundation for a championship team. Had they not been outbid last year for the services of Mike D'Antoni, the pairing of D'Antoni's system and Derrick Rose would have been basketball ecstasy. Instead, they got the goofy neophyte Vinny Del Negro, and the basketball world was robbed of what should have been a revelation. And instead of Ben Gordon and Derrick Rose teaming for years to come, the Bulls are now left with Derrick Rose and Kirk Hinrich manning the backcourt, a definite anti-climax.

The Bulls may manage to win some games this year, and it's still realistic to call them an up-and-coming team in the NBA. But to clarify, that's based solely on the strength of a player they lucked into in spite of themselves (Rose), and likewise, it seems that any future success will come despite the ineptitude and apathy of their front office. It shouldn't be this way, though; the fans of Chicago deserve better, Derrick Rose deserves better, and basketball deserves better.

(End of melodramatic rant.)

Update: Quick Hits from Around the Central Division

Responsibilities elsewhere on SBNation.com have made it difficult to give the previews their full attention today, but rest assured, we’ll get there. In the meantime, some thoughts from around the central division.

Indy Cornrows
would like to see the Pacers get out and run this year:

Pressure and pace are going to be two keys to gathering W’s this year for the Pacers. Preferably applying pressure at the defensive end leading to fast, easy buckets at the offensive end, keeping opponents in chase mode. The Pacers exemplified this strategy perfectly in their win over the Nuggets in Taipei.

Of course, it could happen in the reverse order where pushing the offensive pace will take a more deliberate offensive team, like say Detroit, out of their comfort zone allowing the pressure at the defensive end to be more effective as the opponent tries to keep up. I’d prefer defensive pressure leading to offense but either way the Pacers need to keep the pace up.

The mighty, mighty Mike Wells ponders the idea of slowing down the offensive pace in order to leave more energy for the defensive end. The slow-down-for-defense argument makes sense but I’d much rather add a player or two to the rotation for a few minutes to keep fresh bodies running up and down the floor. If the team slows down the tempo to help at the defensive end it eliminates an advantage, thus creating a straight matchup with the opponent and on most nights the Pacers would be at a talent deficit trying to match up toe-to-toe with other teams around the league.

Plus, it’s way more fun to watch and I’m selfish like that.

Meanwhile, in Cleveland, Lebron James will give 1 million dollars to anyone that can prove he’s ever said anything bad about Cleveland:

I have never said anything bad about Cleveland. If anybody can find one article in which LeBron James says something bad about Cleveland, then please bring it to me and they get a million dollars, cash.

While elsewhere on the internet, Need4Sheed offers a preview of tonight’s Pistons-Mavericks preseason game.

And Blog-a-Bull recaps the Bulls’ most recent preseason game, a win over the T-Wolves, and offers some quick thoughts.

More to come on the Central Division later this weekend.

Update: Player to Watch: Brandon Jennings

The thing about Brandon Jennings is, you truly couldn’t come up with a better foil for college basketball purists looking to tout the importance of a college education. He’s cocky, he’s loud, his entrance at the NBA Draft was unintentionally hilarious, he got into all kinds of trouble with social media, and when he “blazed a trail” and skipped college to go to Europe, he did so with undeniably mixed results (or at least statistics). He’s a ready-made cautionary tale for what happens when hubris goes unchecked, or, to put it in modern terms, when swagger gets too crazy.

There’s only one problem: his game doesn’t fit the mold. If Brandon Jennings were Tyreke Evans on the basketball court, then maybe. But he’s not; if anything, he’s Ricky Rubio from Compton, with a fade instead of a floppy hair. He’s impossibly quick and long, but matches those skills with natural passing instincts that most point guards just don’t possess. He’s so creative with the ball it’s ridiculous, and while his game’s still rough around the edges, he still has the chance to help a team.

And ironically enough, where many critics point to his decision to bypass the NCAA as a sign of immaturity (he’d failed to qualify for Arizona), it’s actually indicative of what makes him so intriguing. As I wrote back in June:

Let’s reiterate: this is a kid who left Compton, where he was lionized by everyone around him, and went to Rome, where he was likely subject to all sorts of resentment and added scrutiny from opponents, fans, teammates, and even coaches. At 18 years old, that’s pretty f’ing impressive. There’s just no other way to say it—and to remain levelheaded through it all and play well enough to garner NBA interest is even more so.

I wished the Wizards had drafted him back then, and while there will certainly be some ups-and-downs in Milwaukee this year, I have a feeling that Bucks fans will be pleasantly surprised. Again, he fulfills every aspect of the flashy teenager stereotype—except his game. Someone to keep an eye on.

The Cavs, and Everyone Else: Your 2009 Central Division Preview

We're back, and the previews are really starting to pick up around here, as the it's time to take a look at the Central Division. First, we'll start with some of the stated goals for '09 from SBN's bloggers.

From SBN's Detroit Piston's blog, Motown String Music:

For any team, the goal should be winning a championship.  Call it cheesy, PC, unrealistic, etc., whatever you want.  I don't think Detroit is going to win a championship in 2009-2010, but they need to continue working toward that goal.  They need to work hard to create the right team chemistry and play hungry on a gamely basis.  Ultimately, after Joe Dumars makes that one or two final moves, this team is hopefully going to be a legitimate contender for the NBA Championship, as they were for seven of the last eight seasons.

From SBN's Indiana Pacers blog, Indy Cornows:

After back-to-back 36 win seasons, the Pacers are looking to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. That's the goal this team talks about at every opportunity and when you look at all of the close games the team dropped last year it doesn't take long to find a few more wins which would've put them in the playoffs.

Only problem is that there are several more teams in the mix in the Eastern Conference this year. Once you skim the cream off the top you could make the case that every team in the EC could make the playoffs if they stay healthy and play well. That alone exposes a mediocre middle of the conference, but the opportunity is there. Some teams don't necessarily have to stay healthy nor play exceedingly well, but the Pacers are one of the teams that will indeed need good health and must come together to play better than the sum of their parts in order to make the playoffs.

From our Milwaulkee Bucks blog, Brew Hoop:

Media, fans, players – certainly they all have different ideas, though all can agree that after five straight last-place finishes in the Central, escaping the division basement would provide a long overdue baby step in the right direction and toward respectability. If that doesn’t happen, well, don’t count the national media among those surprised – they have lower expectations for Milwaukee this year than their usual, remarkably low expectations. Most who follow the team closely however probably peg the Bucks as a similarly capable side to last year. The offseason headlines naturally tilt toward actual player transactions, but if the team’s two most important chips (Redd and Bogut) return to health, the Bucks should be a mildly competitive team.

So, what should Redd and Bogut aim for, realistically? They are mainstays on these last-place finishers, but the last time either played 80 games, they both did - and the Bucks won 40 games and made the playoffs (2005-06). The chances the Bucks do the same this year are probably the same as the odds Redd and Bogut both stay on the floor without a scrape. Likely? No. Possible? Possible.

"Likely? No. Possible? Possible." Now that sounds like an NBA preview. I'm pretty sure I said those exact words when my girlfriend (who just moved to D.C.) asked whether the Wizards could win the NBA Title this year. Likely? Ehhh... Not so much. But possible. In October, anything's possible. Even...

AAANNNNNNNNYTHINGGG'S POSSSSSIIIBBBBBBBLLLLLLLLLE!

(Sorry, it was obligatory.)

Back to the previews, where Matt from Blog-a-Bull is keeping things realistic:

Seeing how a first-round playoff loss to a team missing its best player was seemingly treated with such extreme excitement and praise, no doubt it will be important for the Bulls to at least look like a team on the rise, whether it's true or not. And to do that they have to make the playoffs again, entering 2010 free agency as an attractive destination for players looking for a competitive team with the cap space to pay up. 

A season where the playoffs are missed could bring a repeat of Bulls free agency past, where Jerry Krause had a league-worst roster and whiffed on plan A through plan Ron Mercer.

And finally, from our Cavs blog, Fear the Sword:

Easy - Win the NBA Championship.  Anything else for this group would be considered a letdown.  I don't know if winning the title, or not winning it, will have any affect on what LeBron James does next summer, but this group was put together to win this season.

Doesn't get much simpler than that: win everything, or it's a letdown. Be sure to check back throughout the day on Friday for various thoughts on the Central Division, and check out all the previews, as our blogger's have done some tremendous work with these.