Dissecting The BCS Standings

For college football fans, there are many running jokes we all know and love. Joe Paterno is old. When in doubt, Florida State is probably cheating. Tim Tebow will circumcise you. Most anything will make for a better quarterback than Jonathan Crompton (including a catfish).  Another common refrain is that the Big 10, as a whole, is a bad conference.

They play slow, muddy, boring football, the teams are incapable of scoring points and when they get their shot on the national stage, they blow it (see: Ohio State). But is it all just a case of their reputation sullying their good name? The Rivalry, Esq. presents their case that, if you look at the BCS standings, the Big 10 isn't having a down year. In fact, they're only getting better.

So far, it would seem that the Big 10 is actually having a year identical to last year - and an improvement over the 2006-2007 era. Of the major conferences, the one conference with a significant down year appears to be the Big 12. This intuitively makes sense. Sam Bradford's injury woes at Oklahoma along with the mediocrity of former representatives such as Texas Tech, Missouri, Nebraska, and Texas A&M has contributed to the decline in their overall conference representation.

They go on to point out -- with the aid of some snazzy graphs -- that for the second year in a row, the Big 10 has four teams in the Week 1 BCS rankings and that it is in fact the Big 12 that has suffered the biggest drop of schools in the top 10 from 2008 to 2009. So why all the Big 10 hatred?

First, the ascendancy of the SEC over the last several years and the great year that the Big 12 had in 2008 seems to have pushed those two conferences to the forefront of commentators and voters thoughts when evaluating the conferences relative power among the BCS, regardless if this is matched by play on the field or not. [...]

Finally, while the middle schools of the SEC, the Big 12, and the Pac-10 are mediocre and the bottom schools truely rotten, the dominance of the conference power houses (Florida, Alabama, Texas, Oklahoma, and USC) casts a halo around the rest of the conference that makes their conference look stronger as a whole.

SBN's Texas blog, Burnt Orange Nation has their own thoughts on the newly-released rankings and for Texas, Florida, and Alabama, it all starts with a simple task:

Despite the fact that none of the top three teams brought their "A" games on Saturday, all three survived and advanced. For Florida, Alabama, and Texas that is all it's about-survival. The top three in all polls don't need to worry about style points; all they need to do is win. The potential collision of an undefeated SEC champion vs. Texas for the national championship remains a possibility.

It's true; amidst all the crowing about fairness when discussing the BCS system, that one, simple truth too often goes overlooked. Among the favorites, more often than not, if you win, you're in. And for this year's crop of college football heavyweights, that's certainly true. If Texas runs the table, they'll make the title game; if Florida and Alabama do the same, whichever team emerges victorious from the title will be their opponent. It's that simple.

If that doesn't happen... Then things get a little complicated. As they take a look at some of the other dark horses:

The Contenders:

1. USC (5-1; BCS 7): The Trojans escaped South Bend and appear to be in excellent position to back into the national title game should the top teams stumble. I say appear because I'm not so sure that they don't need more than a little help. Should Texas lose, USC is in decent shape but would they be more deserving than an undefeated Big 10 champion or an undefeated Big East champion? I'm not so sure. Should Florida and / or Alabama lose, wouldn't a one-loss SEC champion still be higher ranked and more appreciated by the computers than a one-loss USC? I think so. In my opinion, the Trojans need to start worrying about style points and impressive wins over Oregon State and Oregon in the next two weekends would be a good place to start.

Next Games:, 10/24 Oregon State; 10/31 @ Oregon, 11/7 @ Arizona St

2. Cincinnati (6-0; BCS 5): The Bearcats are the surprise of the season. Cincinnati wasn't even ranked in the pre-season and after less than two months are ranked in the top five of the first BCS standings. Tony Pike's injury doesn't appear to be serious and even without him, Cincy should have no trouble over the next couple of games. College football has been crazy already...with wins over West Virginia and Pittsburgh and an undefeated campaign, who knows.

Next Games: 10/24 Louisville, 10/31 @ Syracuse, 11/7 Connecticut

Need Help:

1. Boise State (6-0; BCS 4): Why so low? Cause they're Boise State. As BZ mentioned last week, this may be as high as they can get. Major conferences teams like Cincinnati, Iowa, and USC are all likely to jump the Broncos in the weeks ahead.

Next Games: 10/24 @ Hawaii, 10/31 San Jose State, 11/6 @ La Tech

2. Iowa (7-0; BCS 6): Vegas may not believe in the Hawkeyes but they don't have to. Road trips to East Lansing and to Columbus are all that really stand in the way of an improbable undefeated season. I think Iowa will have no trouble jumping Boise State and Cincinnati in the weeks ahead, as long as they keep winning.

Next Games: 10/24 @ Michigan State, 10/31 Indiana, 11/7 Northwestern

Check out their extensive analysis here, as it's all excellent, and they examine the favorites in more depth, as well as highlighting some dark horses like LSU and Penn State as potential BCS party-crashers. November should be a very exciting month for college football fans everywhere.

The Nittany Lions’ loss to Iowa is not getting much respect around college football. Penn State ranks No. 13 in the first BCS poll as the sixth-highest one-loss team.

Penn State blog Black Shoe Diaries notes that the Nittany Lions’ weak strength of schedule is holding them back in the computer rankings:

Stumbles by some of the top teams bumped Penn State up to 11th in both the Coaches’ and Harris poll, but the team was roughed up by the computers and end up with a final BCS rank of 13.

The SOS is absolutely brutal from the machines, and it shows in the rankings they spit out:

A&H 14
Bill. 16
Colley 15
Massey 16
Sagarin NR
Wolfe 25
Average 17

That average of 17 is below two-loss teams Virginia Tech, Wisconsin and Arizona and one-loss Utah.

The Nittany Lions only have themselves to blame for the weak strength of schedule hurting their BCS ranking. When Syracuse is the highlight of your out of conference schedule, don’t expect the computers to help you out very much.

Even with the currently high BCS ranking, the outlook from BSD remains bleak for the rest of the season:

For you dreamers, Penn State is still mostly behind the 8-ball after that loss to Iowa. A Big Ten title means Iowa has to somehow lose to both Michigan State and Ohio State.

Considering the SEC bloc at the top and Big Ten computer hate, an MNC hope is mostly for the insane.

With Ohio State’s face-plant this week, the realistic ceiling is probably a BCS game against Miami in the Orange Bowl, but there is still an awful lot to improve upon before you can consider that in any way likely.

The folks over at Black Heart Gold Pants aren’t getting too excited yet over their No. 6 ranking in the BCS poll. Everybody in the country knows the Big Ten is down this season, but if Iowa keeps winning, they very well could end up in the title game to get smacked down by the SEC like recent Ohio State teams.

Here are their thoughts:

The initial BCS rankings are out, and 7-0 Iowa comes in sixth. They place behind Florida, Alabama, Texas, Boise State, and Cincinnati. It is Iowa’s highest BCS ranking since the last week of the 2002 regular season. This comes despite the fact that the Hawkeyes are ranked seventh in the Harris Poll and eighth by the coaches. The bump to sixth comes as a result of the computers, where (contrary to the Bleacher Report’s unhinged ramblings) the Hawkeyes are shown much love: Iowa averages third in the six BCS computer rankings, with Colley placing them first and only Billingsley leaving them out of the top 3.

I can find only one serious quarrel with the teams ranked ahead of Iowa: Boise State, which has played exactly two teams with a winning record — Oregon and Tulsa — and has just one left on its remaining schedule. It’s far too early to start gaming out the scenarios, but if Iowa’s BCS standing actually matters at the end of the year — essentially, if they run the table — the strength of their schedule should be enough to overtake the Broncos. Same goes for #5 Cincinnati, which has a legitimate shot at going undefeated in the Big East, but had an otherwise strong non-conference slate weakened by Fresno State’s meh performance and Illinois’ implosion.

I’m frankly more surprised at teams ranked behind Iowa: Southern Cal, who are ranked fourth by both polls but hated by the computers for their mediocre schedule, and Texas Christian, who ranked ahead of Iowa in the polls prior to this week but again loses points with the machines.

As said above, it’s far too early to seriously consider the implications of the BCS rankings. As Hlas points out, less than half the teams ranked in the top two of the initial standings have made the championship. Just once has #1 and #2 made it to the finish unscathed. There is a lot of football left to be played, folks. Try to stay calm.

From the SEC’s reaction to the other side of the spectrum… We head over to SBN’s Mountain West Connection, who take a look at some of the implications from this week’s rankings, as well as what the TCU-BYU game might mean:

The first official BCS standings are out and not too many surprise from where the teams are ranked, but there are with the computer polls. Before we get into that TCU is 7th, BYU 16th, and Utah at a surprise 18th. With so much football left to be played it is hard to go game by game and see who will be ranked where.

The computers are a bit surprising, because undefeated Iowa and Cincinnati are getting love by being ranked third and fourth. USC is a distant 11th by the compters, but should make ground with games against Oregon and Arizona who is not ranked in either the coaches or Harris poll, but is 22nd in the BCS polls because of more computer love.

Boise State who’s schedule gets weaker by week is getting a solid computer ranking at five mostly from the Oregon win, but expect that number to drop some as the weeks go by. BYU is getting nothing from the computers where three of them do not even have BYU ranked and average out to 25th; while the Utes who have a better loss are 14th compared to the Cougars. Looks like that Florida State loss will haunt BYU even more then expected.

All that could change with the TCU/BYU matchup this week, and with GameDay coming to Provo the tilt is getting much more hype. TCU is eighth in the computers and if BYU were to win that game they certainly would get a big boost from all the rankings and move closer to the coveted top 12 spot that could guarantee them an auto bid; however Boise State would still need to lose.

SB Nation’s excellent SEC football blog, Team Speed Kills, kicks off what’s sure to be a long and entertaining discussion of the BCS Rankings this week.

Boise State can never complain about the polls again, as the only reason I can see for them being fourth in the country is the “they won, move them up” philosophy that non-traditional powers have decried for years. And, no, the computer rankings don’t “fix” that because they can’t take into account things like MOV and the fact that Boise State barely defeated Tulsa.

Iowa is one of the biggest gaps between humans and the robots in the Top 10, which have the Hawkeyes at No. 3 while the flesh-and-blood voters put them at Nos. 7 and 8. Another notable is Southern Cal, which hasn’t done much but is No. 4 in both human polls and No. 11 according to the chips. (Win to the computers on both points.)

Houston is behind Oklahoma State — again the blame goes to those who are supposedly able to recognize things like head-to-head — and Ohio State is only in the poll at all because the humans inexplicably decided to keep the Buckeyes in the Top 25 after losing to Purdue.

Note: The inane BCS system and computer polls are maddening, but they got nothin’ on the fools that think Boise State’s a top 5 team.