Week 4 Start/Sit: Use Your Head, Not Your Hope

- Article by Ken Meringolo

By week 4, we know a lot about the teams and players in the NFL. We know which receivers are getting targeted the most, which running backs are getting the most yards per carry and where defenses are weakest, among other things. Our start and sit decisions therefore, become more and more calculated as opposed to relying on a belief that a guy should be able to get it done. Of course there will always be a fantasy owner who looks like a genius for drafting Glen Coffee and starting him in Week 4 (ohboyohboyohboyohboy….I can’t wait to collect those points this week). But around the league there are plenty of easy decisions to make, and if you pass up an easy decision for a hunch or a hope, you are decreasing your chances of cashing in at the end of the season.

Start of the Week

Jay Cutler, QB CHI - Cutler will get his chance to explode this week against the third worst defense in overall passing yards allowed. The Lions have also allowed the most passing touchdowns and with Forte yet to impress, I see Jay Cutler going for it all in the air. Like many of you, I see that the interweb is jammed with people telling you to start Bears players this week. Don’t outsmart yourself. If you have a Bears offensive player this week, play them, especially:

Devin Hester, WR CHI/Greg Olsen, TE CHI – These two should benefit from a very weak secondary that even the Redskins were able to dominate (in a loss). The Lions have not done a great job against the tight end and Devin Hester is every bit as fast and dangerous as Santana Moss—who just dropped 178 yards on the Lions.

Start

Carson Palmer, QB CIN – Carson has yet to blow up this year for his patient fantasy owners. But you have to remember that he sat out the majority of the preseason so he lost some time to get his rhythm. Three weeks and in and he looks confident and comfortable. I predict the first breakout game of Carson Palmer’s comeback will come against the Browns. Palmer has had some epic fantasy days against Cleveland, including the 400+ yard, 6 TD performance in 2007. He might not get to 400 this week, but I definitely see 300+ yards and 3 TD’s.

Darren McFadden, RB OAK - I know…his fumbling issues and lack of scoring don’t necessarily warrant a lot of consideration. but his talent is undeniable and the Houston Texans are the worst run defense in the league. The Raiders do a great job of committing to the run so you know they will be handing off to McFadden plenty. Consider this as his last chance to prove early in the season that he is going to anchor your battery of running backs.

Mike Sims-Walker, WR JAX - As I wrote earlier this week in the Fantasy Mailbag, David Garrard is starting to develop a nice rhythm with MSW. The Jacksonville passing attack has been depressing for a long time now, but this week they face the porous Titans’ passing defense. Keep in mind also: MSW is in that magical “third year” for wide receivers. A third-year wide receiver always makes some noise, and MSW stands an excellent chance to become the next to do so.

Chris Cooley, TE WAS – You didn’t think I would roll with zero Redskins this week did you? They get the 0-3 Bucs and Jason Campbell has been helping Cooley put together yet another Pro Bowl resume early this season. With Clinton Portis banged up and Jim Zorn loading up on the passing game, I expect screens and dumpoffs to Cooley to replace the running plays that Zorn would otherwise call.

San Francisco, DEF – Last week I urged owners to reserve Adrian Peterson (sacrilege!) out of the respect I have for Singletary’s impact on this defensive unit. The 85 yards AP got on the ground were more than I thought he would get, but still nothing special. This week against St. Louis, the 49ers will stuff Steven Jackson and have their best overall defensive performance of the season. Something I always think about when it comes to defense: stopping the run is not about talent or coaching—though both certainly help. Stopping the run is about heart and effort. You have to want to put your nose into the line of scrimmage. You have to be willing to sell out against lead blockers and set up your teammates for tackles. Mike Singletary knows this as well as anyone alive. And his attitude is sinking in with his young team.

Sit

Matt Cassel, QB KC – He faces the #1 ranked pass defense this week in the Giants and he doesn’t have Randy Moss or Wes Welker to bail him out. It’s going to be a long day for Cassel…it’s going to be a long year for Cassel.

Derrick Ward, RB TB – He is not even getting 40 yards a game on the ground to begin with, but you have to believe Washington is going to sit on the run and make Josh Johnson beat them in the air if he can. Sorry Tampa fans, but there is not a single matchup that favors you in this game…except of course the fact that Redskins have proven generous enough to let other teams get their first win of the season against them.

Derrick Mason, WR BAL – Not many Derricks I like this week. The New England passing defense has not allowed an opposing wide receiver to score a touchdown yet this season and at some point Joe Flacco has to down to earth anyway, right?

Benjamin Watson, TE NE – Wes Welker’s absence has hurt Watson this season, as he has drawn some underneath attention that may have otherwise been paid to Welker. Not to mention Watson put up a nice chunk of his numbers at the end of the Buffalo game anyway. Against the Ravens, Watson should have a very long, quiet day.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, DEF – Do I have that much respect for the Redskins? No. But whenever an otherwise bad team gives a quarterback his first start, you have to believe that defense is going to be on the field all day long.

Frontline Player to Reserve This Week—If You Dare

Aaron Rodgers, QB GB – I know some people are already suggesting he won’t have a huge game against the Vikings so it may not be as shocking as me advising you to sit Adrian Peterson last week. But if you have Aaron Rodgers on your fantasy team, chances are you have him cemented in your starting lineup regardless of matchup or news. The Brett Favre factor should be minimal, as I think Rodgers has been dealing with that all along anyway. But the Vikings defense has looked great against the pass this year, allowing under 170 yards per game and they will be chasing down Rodgers all night long due to his banged up offensive line. If you can stomach putting a guy who you probably drafted as your top quarterback on the bench, you should do it this week.

This Start/Sit was authored by Ken Meringolo.