Fantasy RB Stock Watch

Two months ago the fantasy "experts" drafted up their lists of the expected top performers at each position. As the first few games of the season unfolded, there was perhaps no position more in upheaval than running backs. Five or six top 10 picks were cellar-dwellers after two weeks. This week, as the first quarter comes to a close, it is time to take stock of player performances and evaluate what the rest of the season may offer in terms of value and production. Here are the top twenty RB picks in most drafts.

--Bust or Trust--

Adrian Peterson, MIN - Purple Jesus has been lights out just as fantasy owners expected when they drafted him first over all in 99% of fantasy leagues. He's the top RB fantasy producer through three games. He plays the Pack on MNF, so his 4th game stats are absent. Trust.

Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX - I pushed for MJD as a first overall pick ahead of Adrian Peterson, and so far he has not disappointed. Apples to apples through 3 games they are neck and neck. Both had 4 TDs. MJD picked up yet another today, though he didn't get much yardage, as QB Garrard torched the Titans through the air. Trust

Matt Forte, CHI - The sophomore stud was expected to pick up right where he left off last year but he struggled through his first couple of weeks with only 150 yards through 3 games. Owners started to panic. Not to fear, despite those numbers he had the 4th most rushing attempts and was tied for 6th most receptions among RBs. The tide will turn. That turn started in week 4 where he ran for 121 yards and a score, with a 10.2 yards per carry. He should still end the season as a top 10 pick. Buy him or hold him. Do not trade him. Trust

Michael Turner, ATL - I pegged Turner as a bust in the preseason, and so far he's done nothing to disprove my argument. Through 3 weeks (he's on bye this week), he's run for 226 yards at 3.47 YPC. Certainly not earth shattering, but also not overly alarming. Things only get rougher from here. He faces the 49ers next, who shut down Adrian Peterson last week, and Steven Jackson this week. If you can get value for him as a high first round pick, trade him. Bust

Steven Jackson, STL - Jackson got off to a slow start as well, but quickly got the ball moving for the Rams. He struggled this week against the 49ers, but hey, so did Purple Jesus. The road for the Rams remains ugly, so Jackson will be the team's offensive catalyst week after week. He is especially valuable in PPR leagues. Trust

Chris Johnson, TEN - Johnson was a mid-first round pick in most drafts. Rather surprising since Lendale White steals his TDs. Yet, through 4 games White has been almost invisible and Johnson has been right there with MJD and A.P. in terms of fantasy production. While the Titans continue to struggle through the air, Johnson will be the offensive front. Trust

DeAngelo Williams, CAR - After last season's massive performance, just about anything he does this season will seem like a letdown. Williams is another I pegged as a first round bust this season. He's on bye this week, so it's only been 3 games, but what I have seen has been pedestrian, which was pretty much how I valued him prior to last season; as a low end number 2 or high end number 3 RB. He will certainly not put up first round fantasy production in 2009, making him a, Bust.

Clinton Portis, WAS - Portis was a monster out the gate last season, then he faded. I predicted in the preseason he would not be worthy of a first or even second round pick this year. Through one quarter of play, he's not even in the top 40 at his position. He will struggle all season. Unload him if you can find a believer. Bust

Frank Gore, SFO - Fab Frankie exploded like Kevin Federline's waistline this season, then once again he got hurt. When he gets back on the field in the next couple of weeks he should be fine. He was drafted to be a late first rounder in most leagues. Barring a serious injury he should end up no worse than an early second round pick. Trust

LaDainian Tomlinson, SDC - This is a tough one to call. The experts were divided before the season started on how much L.T. had left in the tank. In the Chargers opening game against the Raiders, #21 looked average, before he got hurt. He missed weeks two and three, and against the Steelers in week four he looked simply tragic. He could always turn it on, and rocket back to fantasy production, but it seems unlikely at this point. If you drafted him you're stuck with him. If he strings a great game or two together, sell him. Bust

Brandon Jacobs, NYG - Fifteen TDs last season, at least one per game on average, considering he never plays a full season. He was drafted in the very late first to late second round of most drafts. He went especially high in TD leagues. Through one quarter he's ranked outside the top 25, and he has only 1 touchdown. I don't believe he'll live up to his 1st to 2nd round draft rank. Ahmad Bradshaw will continue to take carries away, and his inevitable injury is still ahead. Sell him if you can get value. Bust

Steve Slaton, HOU - Owners drafted Slaton at the end of the first round in most drafts (higher in PPR formats) with the expectation that he'd do even greater things in his sophomore season than he did as a rookie. The team has had him involved every week, it simply has not translated to fantasy points until week 4, when he found the endzone twice, by air and by land. This is the type of performance owners drafted him for. He should continue to be a pivot in the Texans game, and we should see more games like this, rather than what we saw in the first couple of contests. Trust

Brian Westbrook, PHI - This is where I give my how the mighty have fallen speech. He performs when he's healthy, but he has a more difficult time each season staying healthy. This year though, the Eagles have a more than capable replacement in rookie LeSean McCoy. This is the season Westbrook finally fails to end up in the top dozen at his position. Bust

Ronnie Brown, MIA - I don't know why, but I just never trust this guy on my fantasy teams, and each year he seems to prove me wrong. Once again this year he's a top 10 performer through the first quarter. I still don't want him on my teams, but this is one time to ignore my judgment, and follow the statistics. Trust

Marion Barber, DAL - Barber is has already lost time to injury and he's splitting carries pretty evenly with Felix Jones. And then there's Tashard Choice as well. Despite all this he is still in the top dozen RBs in fantasy scoring, so it seems safe to assume he will continue to be the Cowboy's go to back. Trust

Marshawn Lynch, BUF - This is going to be interesting to watch in the second quarter. Fred Jackson filled in while Lynch served his three game suspension and was 6th in RB scoring during that stretch. Lynch started Sunday against Miami and rushed 8 times for 4 yards. That's right, 1/2 a yard per carry average. Fred Jackson ran 9 times for 42 yards and had about another 30 in receiving yards. Oh what will the Bills do with this mess? I'd rather have Jackson. Bust

Pierre Thomas NOS - Thomas was hurt throughout the preseason and did not get into game action until week 3. He looked good again Sunday against the Patriots, and has quickly reestablished himself as the team's number one RB. Trust

Kevin Smith, DET - Smith has been right on target through 4 games in terms of taking the next step in his development on the field and in fantasy. He was expected to miss week 4 with an injury and showed up to score twice. The Lions need him to move the chains, and he is their guy. Back up Maurice Morris cannot get that job done. Trust

Ryan Grant, GBP - Fantasy owners where not sure which Grant would show up in 2009. 2007's stud, or 2008's dud. So far he's looking like the 2007 version of himself and should easily surpass his 4th round draft expectations. Trust

Thomas Jones, NYJ - Last season's breakout stud is off to a mediocre start this year. Many savvy owners predicted as much and he was not drafted very high in most leagues. So far he's living down to expectations. His numbers are solid for how late he ended up being drafted despite his high ranking. On that basis alone he should perform decently for where he was actually taken. Trust

--Hostile Takeovers--

Willis McGahee, BAL - The preseason hype was all about Ray Rice being the stud RB for the Ravens. Rice has certainly been no disappointment except in the TD department, where he only has one. Oft-maligned and written-off McGahee has received the redzone nods, and has turned that into 7 touchdowns in 4 games. More interesting is that until Sunday's tilt against the Pats, he and Rice were sharing carries at about a 50/50 ratio. Rice finally broke free in week 4 for 100 yards, but it was still Willy M. who took it to the house. His current rank puts him in the top 5. 

Fred Jackson, BUF - As mentioned above, fleet-foot Fred looked dynamic in his first three weeks of play, and the return of Marshawn Lynch did nothing to slow him down. The team is committed to Lynch, but Jackson will continue to produce all season, perhaps becoming the Reggie Bush to Lynch's Pierre Thomas.

Jerome Harrison, CLE - Cleveland has plenty of hostile takeovers going on. Harrison was seemingly the odd man out of the RB mix for the Browns, with Jamal Lewis the starter, and rookie James Davis the likely successor. Now Lewis is hurt and Davis is on the IR. Harrison is making the most of his opportunity. This could get ugly as the season wears on and Lewis continues to wear down.