We’ve already covered, with simple standard stats, why Edwards might not bring all that much value to the Jets. Jets fans will be glad to know that more advanced metrics don’t rate Edwards’ last few seasons very highly, either:
The advanced stats on Football Outsiders, though, say Edwards wasn’t particularly valuable even in 2007. His Defense-adjusted Value Over Average was just 3.3%, good for 40th in the NFL. That can be explained partly by his paltry catch rate of 52%. Last year, his value dropped along with his basic numbers — to -16.8%, which ranked 73rd in the league. And so far this year, Edwards’s DVOA stood at -6.6%, 47th in the NFL.
The Jets already have a better receiver: Jerricho Cotchery. He ranked higher than Edwards in each of the last three seasons, and this year is having a career season, ranking 12th in the NFL in DVOA.
Of course, anyone with eyes can see that Edwards is a talented guy; he’s big and strong and fast and all that. Maybe a change of scenery is just the change he needs. But in so far as Edwards’ production the past few seasons is independent of context, this is bad news for the Jets.