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2 months ago: Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger takes the field between his teammates before an NFL football game against the San Diego Chargers in Pittsburgh, Sunday, Oct. 4, 2009. (AP AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)
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As we noted earlier this week, we have finished what amounts to a third of most fantasy football regular seasons. If you are looking strong so far, don't get cute with your roster decisions. Go with the odds. If you need to make a move in your league, take a risk or two. Here are some of the better bets (and risks) this week:
Start
Ben Roethlisberger, QB PIT - Nobody has given up more passing touchdowns than the Detroit Lions. Mike Tomlin has been known to turn Big Ben loose and this week is the perfect time to do it. Look for Roethlisberger to have his best stats of the season.
Marshawn Lynch, RB BUF - This one is a risk, but I like it because of the matchup and because Lynch still has some fresh legs. Fred Jackson will of course get his share of touches, but Marshawn will make the most of his carries against a weak Cleveland defense.
Mike Sims-Walker, WR JAC - Wow...talk about a guy you can't escape when you read and write about fantasy football. But you can't deny that this guy is one of the hottest fantasy players right now out there. Over the last three games, he has 19 catches, 3 touchdowns and almost 300 yards. Against the Seahawks this week, the Jaguars should be able to put some points on the board. Look for Sims-Walker to continue his assault on fantasy leagues.
Vernon Davis, TE SF - I have been waiting to call his number all year. The guy is too good to be considered a back-up fantasy tight end, yet that is what he has been relegated to in most leagues. He has woken up a bit in the last two games, with 10 catches, a touchdown and just under 150 yards. Shaun Hill is learning to rely on him at different spots of the field and this week against the Falcons, I expect him to have a very productive day.
New York Jets, DEF - They have been solid all year. Rex Ryan has truly injected his personality and philosophy into this unit. They draw the Dolphins this week and if they can control Miami's rushing attack, they should be in line to post great stats in total points allowed and total yards allowed. I am predicting Darrelle Revis will have two turnovers.
Sit
Jake Delhomme, QB CAR - If you were counting on him at all, your team has some serious issues. The Redskins pass defense has only allowed four passing touchdowns this season. Delhomme has been pretty generous with turnovers as well, which should be welcome to a Redskins team that has yet to get many.
Michael Turner, RB ATL - I have basically been following the 49ers defense each week and picking the opposing running back as a sit. Only two teams have yet to allow a rushing touchdown this season: the Vikings and the 49ers. San Fran bottled up Adrian Peterson and Steven Jackson the last couple weeks. Turner is coming off of a bye, which makes him fresher and therefore a bit of a risk to sit, but now is the time to buy into Mike Singletary and that 49er defense.
Braylon Edwards, WR NYJ - The guy is a huge talent, but he has a history of inconsistency. On national television, and in a new offense, I expect Edwards to contribute very little to Sanchez and Rex Ryan.
Kevin Boss, TE NYG - You have to expect that with Eli Manning banged up, Tom Coughlin is going to lean heavily on the running game. Whether it is Manning or David Carr, look for a lot of handoffs. Boss is battling an ankle injury and the Oakland Raiders do a good job against the tight end. Keep Boss reserved.
Tennessee Titans, DEF - This is simply a no-brainer. They can't stop the pass and Peyton Manning is coming to town. 'Nuff said.
Front Line Player To Sit If You Dare
Tony Romo, QB DAL - This is a risky sit. He has a great matchup against a porous Kansas City pass defense this weekend. But with Roy Williams questionable, and Romo feeling the heat, I am thinking go in a different direction if you have another guy on your bench. Kansas City is getting better and more confident each week. Romo historically gets worse as the season wears on anyway. If you are looking to shake up your roster this week, consider giving Romo the week off.
Start 'Em!
Quarterbacks
Tony Romo: You might be worrying that Romo isn't going to be the fantasy quarterback you wanted him to be. And on certain days that may be true, but not against teams like KC. Remember his game against Tampa Bay? Well, this could be similar.
Ben Roethlisberger: The Steelers are a pass first team. They pass so they can run and Detroit can be passed on and passed on and passed on some more. He probably won't need to pass for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns, but he should be good for 250 and a pair of touchdowns.
Matt Hasselbeck: His status is still uncertain, but looking better everyday. If it looks like he'll play he has a great matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags are the worst pass defense in the league and Seattle loves playing at home. Even if Hasselbeck doesn't go, Seneca Wallace would be a decent start against this poor defense.
Running Backs
Marshawn Lynch: Fred Jackson isn't going away, but the Cleveland Browns have enough rushing yards to go around. Lynch has now had a couple weeks of practice and will be in Beast Mode! The Bills need a little heart because they seem pretty soft. Lynch will give that to them this week.
Rashard Mendenhall: Well, you saw what he could do when he ran over the Chargers on Sunday night. This weekend against an even worse rushing defense in Detroit there is no reason to think he won't put up big numbers.
Marion Barber: The Chiefs run defense at it's best is poor. Marion Barber has practiced fully and should be the main back this week. Feel good about putting him in your lineup.
Wide Receivers
Calvin Johnson: If the Steelers have a weakness it is their pass defense, especially with Troy Polamalu out once again. Matthew Stafford probably won't play, but Daunte Culpepper fared well last year when he tossed it to Johnson. Detroit should be losing and will need to throw the ball. Megatron can catch about anything thrown to him and he should have ample opportunity.
Kevin Walter: The Cardinals weakness is their pass defense. Walter is healthy again and should get plenty of targets in what could be a high scoring affair.
Jason Avant: The Tampa Bay pass defense has been giving up big plays and Avant is looking more and more like the best option after Desean Jackson and Brent Celek. He should be a good bye-week filler.
Sit Down!
Quarterbacks
Jason Campbell: Chris Gamble should shut down the streaky Santana Moss and Campbell will really only have Chris Cooley to pass to. If they succeed at all it will be with Portis on the ground. The Redskins just aren't a good offense and Campbell needs to be going against extremely bad pass defenses to produce any fantasy numbers.
Kerry Collins: The Colts pass defense is tough. The only chance the Titans have of winning this game is keeping Peyton Manning off the field by running, running and running some more.
Eli Manning: If he plays there is a chance that he re-aggravates his plantar fascia and even if he doesn't there's a good chance they'll run the ball down Oakland's throat and break their will to continue on.
Running Backs
Steven Jackson: SJax is a stud. A stud on a team with a bunch of duds. This week he gets the Vikings' Williams Wall to run into over and over. He will get his yards, but have trouble getting into the end zone once again. There are a lot of good matchups this week and you could easily have some lesser names that are better plays this week.
Tashard Choice: He just won't get the opportunities this week. Marion Barber is good to go so Choice goes back to being the change of pace back.
Kevin Smith: With Matthew Stafford probably out and the Steelers tough rush defense swarming, Smith may not have many opportunities.
Wide Receivers
Santana Moss: Gamble should shut Moss down. Moss is extremely streaky and this is a perfect time for him to start the down side of his streak.
Donnie Avery: The Rams passing offense is non-existent.
Ted Ginn Jr.: Darrelle Revis + Chad Henne = Ted Ginn Jr. has absolutely no chance.
Update: Nostradamus Never Played Fantasy Football
As the fantasy season's second quarter kicks off, it has been amazing how many surprises we have seen in just the first few weeks. Willis McGahee with 8 touchdowns, the Denver Broncos at 4-0, the San Francisco defense ranked second in fantasy points. One can only wonder which hidden gems are still waiting to be uncovered on the waiver wire that we keep passing over week to week. We had three new studs emerge in week four alone. Who's next? Michael Bush replaces Darren McFadden this week in Oakland. Could this be his big chance? Fred Taylor may be out for the season in New England. Who will be the leader of the rock brigade now? Sammy Morris, the much maligned Laurence Maroney? Flip a coin, heads or tails, and both may be the wrong choice. Sophomore RB BenJarvis Green-Ellis was the Patriots best back in the preseason. Could he be next to shock the fantasy faithful? Since you can't make a crystal ball out of pigskin, I guess we'll just have to watch and wait.
The San Diego Chargers, Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints are all off honing their X-box skills this week. That means the following fantasy studs are on the bench:
QBs - Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Jay Cutler, and Philip Rivers
RBs - LaDainian Tomlinson, Darren Sproles, Ryan Grant, Matt Forte, Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush
WRs - Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Marques Colston, Earl Bennett, Johnny Knox, Devin Hester, and Vincent Jackson
TEs - Antonio Gates, Jermichael Finley, Greg Olsen and Jeremy Shockey
--Plug and Play Buys for Week 5 --
--Quarterbacks--
Four of the top 10 QBs are out this week, and a couple more are hurt and may or may not play.
Shaun Hill, SF - Hill keeps quietly getting the job done, and I expect another win against the Falcons this week.
Derek Anderson, CLE - Well look who crawled out of fantasy mothballs. Anderson looked solid last week in nearly beating the Bengals. he has a new receiver he likes in Mohamed Massaquoi, and the team diva, Braylon Edwards is gone. Rookie Jerome Harrison revived the running game last week. This week they face the combustible Bills defense.
David Garrard, JAX - I recommended Garrard last week and he was money for fantasy owners. He could do just as well this week, shredding a tragic Seahawks secondary.
Brett Favre, MIN - I recommended Favre last week as well, and he tossed a paltry 3 TD passes. This week he faces cellar-dwelling St. Louis. That sound you hear is Favre licking his lips.
--Running Backs--
Rashard Mendenhall, PIT - Last week I pegged Steelers RB, Willie Parker to have a great game. Then he didn't play and his partner, Rashard Mendenhall lit up the scoreboard and became this weeks, waiver wire gem. This week he faces the Detroit Lions.
Glen Coffee, SF - This week's list will almost be a duplicate of last weeks. Pour yourself another cup of Coffee in week 5.
Tashard Choice, DAL - Marion Barber played last week and scored, but it was Choice who handled most of the load, especially in the passing game. Barber should play this week, but look for Choice to get a heavy dose against a weak Chiefs team.
Jerome Harrison, CLE - Jamal Lewis is hurt and old, James Davis is out for the season, so Jerome Harrison gets the nod. He puts up over a 100 yards against the Bengals solid defense. This week he gets the Bills, suspect defense.
Tim Hightower, ARI - Hightower has been the Cardinals best RB so far, though that isn't saying much. This week the Cards face the Houston Texans who are making every RB look like Adrian Peterson.
--Wide Receivers--
Mohamed Massaquoi, CLE - Derek Anderson is back at QB for the Browns, and he lit up Massaquoi for 148 yards last week. He should have another 100 yard day against the Bills.
Michael Walker-Sims, JAX - I picthed this guy the last several weeks and he hasn't failed to perform. This week he gets the swiss-cheese Seahawks secondary to feast on.
Pierre Garcon/Austin Collie, IND - Reggie Wayne is a no-brainer, but this week, against the Titans defense, (worst against the pass), all Colts receivers should be on fantasy rosters.
Sam Hurd, DAL - Patrick Crayton and Miles Austin are good picks too, but with Roy Williams out, Hurd is the word in Dallas. I like Hurd to get 80 yards and a score against the Chiefs.
--Tight Ends--
Heath Miller, PIT - Miller is an up or down fantasy TE, and last week he was way up. This week he faces the Lions who have surrendered more TDs (5) to tight ends than any other team.
Dustin Keller, NYJ - Keller face the Dolphins who have given up 320 yards and 2 TDs to tight ends. I like Keller to find the endzone again this week, especially with new WR Braylon Edwards there to spread the field.
Vinsanthe Shiancoe, MIN - Favre hasn't used him much so far in 2009, but when he does it's often in the redzone, as we saw against the Packers Monday night. This week Shiancoe gets a Rams defense which has surrendered 3 TDs and 251 yards to TEs.
--Week Five Start and Sit--
Generally, I always recommend starting your top picks, regardless of match-ups, barring injury, of course. It is obvious that you'll always play guys like Randy Moss, Adrian Peterson and Peyton Manning. I try to save this list for guys who are not always obvious starts.
Quarterbacks
Tight Ends
Start
Sit
Start
Sit
David Garrard, JAX
Matt Ryan, ATL
Sean Ryan, KCC
Owen Daniels, HOU
Derek Anderson, CLE
Kyle Orton, DEN
Dustin Keller, NYJ
Kellen Winslow, TBB
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
Jason Campbell, WAS
Heath Miller, PIT
Kevin Boss. NYG
Matt Cassel, KCC
JaMarcus Russell, OAK
V. Shiancoe, MIN
Zach Miller, OAK
Mark Sanchez, NYJ
Manning/Carr, NYG
B. Pettigrew, DET
Scaife/Crumpler, TEN
Wide Receivers
Running Backs
Start
Sit
Start
Sit
Percy Harvin, MIN
Santana Moss, WAS
R. Mendenhall, PIT
Michael Turner, ATL
Collie/Garcon, IND
Ted Ginn, Jr., MIA
Tahsard Choice, DAL
Kevin Smith, DET
Steve Smith, NYG
Any Raiders WR
Jerome Harrison, CLE
Addai/Brown, IND
Housh/Burleson, SEA
Randy Moss, NEP
Glen Coffee, SFO
Thomas Jones, NYJ
M. Massquoi, CLE
Calvin Johnson, DET
Tim Hightower, ARI
Cedric Benson, CIN
Team Defense
Kickers
Start
Sit
Start
Sit
Minnesota Vikings
Dallas Cowboys
Jeff Reed, PIT
Steve Gostowski, NEP
Philadelphia Eagles
New York Jets
David Akers, PHI
S. Janikowski, OAK
San Francisco 49ers
Denver Broncos
Steve Haushka, BAL
Jason Hanson, DET
Rustyn Rose also writes a weekly Start and Sit Team Defense, check it out.
Oct 09 1:58p by Kurt Turner - 0 comments