Over at Advanced NFL Stats they have crunched the numbers on Bill Belichick’s decision to go for it on 4th and 2 from New England’s own 28. The conclusion: It was the correct call.â†µ
You can check out the arithmetic for yourself, but the win probability (WP) if the Pats go for it is .79, meaning they win the game 79% of the time in that exact situation. The WP if they punt: .70. Statistically, that’s a pretty significant difference.
Of course, last night ended up falling into the remaining .21 as the play fell short (at least according to the ref’s spot) and the Colts ended up scoring the game-winning TD. Equipped with this hindsight, the fans over at SBN's Pats Pulpit are against the decision to go for it by about 60/40.