Shanoff's WUC: Belichick, Wall, Jennings, BQ

Today's Calls: John Wall vs. the Buzzer, UCLA vs. Oblivion, Brady Quinn vs. Ray Lewis, Brandon Jennings vs. Dirk Nowitzki, Stephen Jackson vs. Rashard Lewis, AI vs. Anywhere, Bud Adams vs. Roger Goodell, Pete Carroll vs. Rich Rodriguez, Andrew Bailey vs. Chris Coghlan and More.

The Opening Pitch: Why did Bill Belichick's decision to go for it trigger such an allergic reaction?

Because it was in the biggest game of the season?
Because Belichick inspires hyper-schadenfreude?
Because it just didn't work out?

The second-guessing feels cynical: If Belichick had made it on 4th, he would have been re-affirmed as a genius. He played the percentages! Similarly, if he had punted and the Colts had marched down the field and scored -- as we all know they would have -- he would have been second-guessed anyway. Why didn't he play the percentages?

If you'd allow me some pop psychology, I think that the extreme reaction from the collective sports punditry was based on an overall fear of the quantitative analysis that has become such a big part of sports -- this felt like its ultimate test.

And because the move failed, the underlying stats-based analysis can become marginalized; the critics can feel better about their own unfamiliarity or uncertainty with what I'll call "evidence-based play-calling."

This wasn't just about Bill Belichick; this was about columnists and experts who don't understand how statistical analysis works -- and don't want to understand. They wonder if it will make their "gut" analysis irrelevant, expose it as nothing more than a lucky guess.

They want to feel like their conventional thinking still matters. The reaction -- or overreaction -- to Belichick's decision was as much about the legacy of "Moneyball" as it was about legacy assumptions in football.

The fact remains: Even if you don't want to believe the percentages, doesn't it feel more reasonable that the effective Pats offense could get two yards to seal the game as a better bet than volunteering to give the ball back to the hyper-charged Colts offense?

Belichick rightfully defended his decision. He wouldn't go so far as to say he would do it again, under similar circumstances. As I said yesterday, I hope he would.

John Wall. John Wall. John Wall. Let's conveniently overlook that the John Wall Era at Kentucky nearly began with a loss at home to Miami (Ohio), and focus on his buzzer-beating finish. The kid has the goods.

24 Hours of Hoops: They should call this "Unemployment Busters," because if you don't have a job, you can't ask for much more than college hoops starting at midnight last night and running straight through today, all day. Especially when it tips off with UCLA getting shocked in its season opener by Cal State-Fullerton.

As I was up at 6 a.m., instead of my usual morning-TV diet of SportsCenter, Geist/Joe and "Dinosaur Train"/"Super Why"/"Sid the Science Kid" (or whatever my kid wants to watch on DVR), I forced everyone in the house to watch St. Peters-Monmouth, just because we could.

More you can catch during the day:

8 a.m. ET: Drexel vs. Niagara
10 a.m.: Clemson vs. Liberty
Noon: Northeastern vs. Siena
2 p.m.: Arkansas-Little Rock vs. Tulsa
4 p.m.: Temple vs. Georgetown
5:30 p.m.: Binghamton vs. Pitt

The Browns are awful: It wasn't just getting blanked by a good Ravens team.

• Brady Quinn has got to go (and not just because of the illegal block he threw that injured Terrell Suggs, which becomes Quinn's signature play as a pro.)

• Eric Mangini has got to go (what was that hook-and-lateral on the game's final play even though the game was out of reach?)

This was one where the Ravens were obviously disinterested and just trying to get out of town with a win. Unfortunately, Suggs' status is TBD.

Bengals signing Larry Johnson: Weren't they happy with how their season was going? Do they really want to mess with the mojo now, after they beat their division rival to take over first place in the AFC North? Curious decision.

Bud Adams fined $250,000: That's a hefty chunk of change. Then again, Adams' middle-finger-flipping was so egregious that Roger Goodell really had no choice. You can't be an NFL owner and flip off the fans, period. (Adams needs to channel his inner Dan Snyder and just ignore the fans altogether.)

Brandon Jennings Watch: Team-high 25 points, but he got there on 8-of-22 FG shooting. The Bucks took the Mavs to OT, but ultimately lost on a Dirk buzzer-beater. You know things are going well when 25 points is considered disappointing.

Stephen Jackson Era begins in Charlotte: 13 points and 9 rebounds and instant status as a starter. Unfortunately, the Bobcats ran into another team with a player making his debut -- Orlando's Rashard Lewis. The Magic are back to full strength; as soon as everyone acclimates to Lewis's presence again, they should zoom to the top of the East.

Speaking of top of the East: How about the Hawks? Wow.

Allen Iverson Era over in Memphis: It's almost like it never happened. (Wait: It basically didn't happen.) I know he might help a contender, but I don't see one disrupting their chemistry to sign him. As an alternative, I'd like to see him in New York or New Jersey -- two no-win situations with nothing to lose. If you can't win, at least entertain.

CFB Must-Read: Brian Cook's This Week In Schadenfreude, featuring Pete Carroll -- because you can't spell "schadenfreude" without "SC." It's getting ugly in Trojan Nation.

Tennessee football players exiled: And this wasn't even Lane Kiffin's fault -- unless you count signing them in the first place.

Hot Seats: Rich Rodriguez actually might not get through this season. I had originally thought it was improbable -- if not impossible -- that Michigan would let him go. But between the on-field and off-field stumbling, I think it just might happen. It certainly feels like the university is creating a paper trail of option value for themselves -- which is more than you can say about RichRod.

MLB Awards Season: Andrew Bailey and Chris Coghlan were both superficially strong picks for Rookies of the Year. (BBWAA voters using superficial criteria to assign awards? YOU DON'T SAY.)

I liked Andy Hutchins' TSB analysis of why they weren't the strongest candidates for ROY -- Bailey not even the strongest on his own team.

MLB Hot Stove: Chone Figgins to Phillies? Probably not... Edwin Jackson to the Mariners? Maybe...

Northwestern Dance Watch: As Northwestern blog Lake the Posts put it, by "This year" we meant "Next year." The team's best player, Kevin Coble, is shutting it down for the season after last week's injury and taking a redshirt. We will resume the Dance Watch in November 2010.

The Last Word: "I don't care if the Yankees go out and spend $350 million next year, we're going to beat them because we have the team." -- Mike Scioscia, setting expectations early for 2010.

Dan Shanoff writes The Wake-Up Call every weekday morning for SportingNews.com and blogs daily at DanShanoff.com. Got any comments, questions or feedback? Email Dan at shanofftsn-[at]-gmail-[dot]-com. Follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/danshanoff.

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