The Designed Rush, Week 11: How Much Can You Trust Nine Percentage Points?

In reading the myriad examinations, hair-splitting and psychological breakdowns on Bill Belichick's decision to have the Patriots attempt to convert a 4th and 2 against the Colts from their own 28 with about two minutes remaining, it seems as though fans would prefer C-3PO be positioned at the side of every NFL head coach, constantly informing them of the statistical likelihood of success on any given play.

I'm sure most, if not all, NFL head coaches are aware of what is more likely to work in such scenarios. The precision of execution required to excel in the league all but demands it. If they haven't studied the exact figures themselves, they likely have staff on hand to remind them.

It just so happens the statistics bear out Belichick's call to go for it. At least in a historical vacuum. A much-cited Advanced NFL Stats post found that in going for it, the Patriots had a 79 percent chance of winning in that scenario versus 70 percent if they kicked it away. Given that that is based on league averages and not the circumstances of this particular game, the actual odds probably favored Belichick even more. He probably had a vague sense of that, which informed what was still very much a gut call.

Let's remember that coaches don't have time to crunch these numbers between plays. Sure, Belichick took a costly timeout between 3rd and 4th down in that series, but it most certainly wasn't to ascertain the exact probability of each option's chances of success. Even if we assume the 9 percent difference between the two options is accurate, how much faith can you place in that number? Life or death on the line, do you have a ton of confidence taking the route that won't kill you 79 percent of the time versus the one that won't kill you 70 percent of the time?

Clearly circumstances of the game were more important. The Patriots strength is their offense. Their identity once was based on stingy defense, but that hasn't been the case in a few years. That defense had been worn down throughout the game, and it lost yet another starter in linebacker Tully Banta-Cain. And, by the way, the quarterback you'd be surrendering the ball to with a punt is Peyton Manning, who is at worst the second best in the league this year.

So while Belichick's call having the benefit of minor statistical backing is nice for him, I'd say it looked like a no-brainer in the moment. The playcall of a pass in the flat to Kevin Faulk, however? Probably not.

Five Games to Watch Even if You Don't Have Rooting Interest or Fantasy Players Involved

Miami at Carolina (8:20 p.m., Thursday) --

Being really good at running the ball won't earn you much in this league if you can't back it up with a respectable passing game, and these two teams are proof positive of this 2009 NFL axiom. The teams with the top four rush attacks are a combined 15-21 (Carolina and Miami are Nos. 3 and 4, respectively), while the bottom four are 25-11. As we know by rule changes and marketing, it's a QB's league and probably will continue to be for the foreseeable future. Not that being able to run isn't a huge asset, but it can't mask other shortcomings the way a stellar pass attack can. But, barring a tie, this game will land at least one of those punishing running attacks at a .500 mark.

Indianapolis at Baltimore (1 p.m., Sunday) --

A week after the Ravens visited the former home of their franchise, Baltimore welcomes its old team to town. I assume the band will continue to play on. After a hot start, the Ravens offense has largely fizzled out the past two weeks against Cincinnati and Cleveland. The Colts come off an emotional contest at home against the Patriots, and the Ravens face a short week after a Monday night game. While Haloti Ngata's status may not be as integral against a Colts team that won't run the ball with regularity, a significant injury to Terrell Suggs will really hurt Baltimore's chances of disrupting Peyton.

Atlanta at New York Giants (1 p.m., Sunday) --

Hey, someone's gonna have to break up this four-member glut of 5-4 teams in the NFC. While a loss would drop either team to 5-5, I feel as though Atlanta would have a much easier time recovering from that and still making a playoff run than a Giants team dropping its fifth-straight, the week after the bye.

San Diego at Denver (4:15 p.m., Sunday) --

Well Denver's three-and-a-half game lead certainly evaporated sooner than expected. They at least waited until the last week of the season in '08. Given that the Broncos, losers of three straight (the latest coming to the lowly Redskins), aren’t even sure whether Kyle Orton will start, they're probably going to need another couple return touchdowns from Eddie Royal to hold off their division rival.

Philadelphia at Chicago (8:20 p.m., Sunday) --

This is going to be a clinic of poor coaching. Security might as well confiscate timeouts and challenges at the gate. Lovie Smith and Andy Reid simply can't be counted on to use them responsibly. Lives are at risk.

NFL Player/Figure Tweet of the Week

"Just got to St. Louis gettin ready for the Rams...lots of great players have played in this city!" Reggie Bush, Nov. 14.

Excellent use of faint praise by Reggie. Truly, the nicest thing you could say about St. Louis football is that it has played host to a number of great players. Mostly playing for other teams, but still.

Dispatches From Madden Nation

Here we have sour grapes epitomized. I received this message from an irate gamer late last week. Quick background: He's right in saying that I do constantly play as the Steelers. I'm a homer like that. Playing as another team in Madden offends my delicate fanboy sensibilities. I'm already compromising myself enough in fantasy football. Enough is enough.

Now, this would be a valid criticism if he were playing as some scrub team like the Browns, Rams or the Bucs. Not the Colts, the team he chooses. After the latest roster update, they're actually rated higher than the Steelers.

So this arbiter of Madden respectability proceeds, on his opening drive, to collect two first downs before failing on a 4th down conversion, whereupon he promptly quits. Bear in mind, I've scored no points. My team has yet to even touch the ball, and this guy has packed it in. Minutes later, I get this message.

Now, fair people, tell me who is really deserving of scorn. If you answer both of us for spending our precious time playing video games online, you will receive at least partial credit.

Truth in Advertising

Broadview Security wants to protect you from the stupidest thieves imaginable. Someone has to, after all. Just look at this schlub. Skulking around the yard of a suburban home in a soiled hoodie in broad daylight? Why not! Peering into the crack in someone's fence while clearly visible to the street and neighboring homes? Couldn't hurt! Picking the most conspicuous entry into said home? Hellz yeah! This guy is at the absolute height of his burgling game. It's like he were coached by Eric Mangini. Admittedly, as police blotters constantly remind us, criminals are often not the brightest among us, but potential customers have to see this system can thwart at least the halfway competent crooks as well.

A Delicious Bundle of Gripes

• LaDainian Tomlinson claimed to be spurred to his first big game in some time after receiving a note from his wife in his locker before the game, informing him that she is pregnant. Were this tactic actually effective in motivating running backs, Travis Henry would be the NFL's all-time leading rusher.

• A word of caution: next time you plan on trash talking some Bears fans in a Chicago, you might want to decline any subsequent peace offering. Your continued ability to see and think will thank me.

• Brady Quinn, beside being woefully inept at quarterback, performed perhaps the dirtiest play of the week when he dove into the knees of Terrell Suggs following a Ravens interception in the third quarter of Monday night's game. Suggs limped off the field and didn't return to the game. Sadly for Cleveland, the one player actually capable of offensive output, Joshua Cribbs, was carted off the field following a futile last second attempt to get on the scoreboard.

• Not that he's been anything close to a bad fantasy option this year, but you know Maurice Jones-Drew's intentional dive at the one-yard line inside two minutes against the Jets (when he could have easily coasted into the endzone) cost someone their week in fantasy. Which is was makes this video where a fan gets to decide MJD's touchdown dance all the more agonizing.

• The Steelers failed to hand out the figurative depantsing that the Bengals have grown accustomed to in Heinz Field over the years, so Bengals guard Bobbie Williams had to settle for the real deal instead. 

This post originally appeared on the Sporting Blog. For more, see The Sporting Blog Archives.