Zack Greinke's Cy Win: Great Pick, But Not Quite Great Change

Zack Greinke was inarguably the best pitcher in the American League this season. A 9.50 K/9? A 2.16 ERA? 11 home runs allowed in 229.1 innings? The numbers he is directly responsible for -- meaning the figures that aren't his ho-hum 16 wins -- are so overwhelming that Felix Hernandez' stellar season, featuring a 2.46 ERA and a better batting average against than Greinke, got only two first-place Cy Young votes despite being one of the best years of this decade.

However, the sabermetric community is claiming victory on this one not just because Greinke's statistical dominance trumped his paltry win total when it comes to an award, but because he knows they exist.

“That’s pretty much how I pitch, to try to keep my FIP as low as possible,” Greinke said.”

The New York Times profile where that quote can be found, though, does much to laud Greinke as a smart player and little to understand what, if anything, sabermetrics have to do with his success.

Fack Youk takes Greinke to task, noting that him adjusting how he pitches to hitters is actually antithetical to the idea of Fielding Independent Pitching. If Greinke were trying to keep his FIP microscopic, he would probably not be trying to factor his defense into possible outcomes of at-bats, and instead relying on his prodigious talents as a pitcher to get batters out without letting other players interfere.

And, as the Fack Youk post notes, every pitcher wants to keep FIP low. It's a great barometer for a pitcher's skills because it takes into account only what a pitcher is responsible for (walks, home runs, and strikeouts). Greinke saying he wants to keep his FIP low reveals that he has heard of FIP, which is cause for some rejoicing, but the fact that does not fully understand the statistic is proof that there is still some way to go. (Though, in fairness to Greinke, his described attempts to allow fly balls, while carrying a greater risk of home runs, are sabermetrically grounded in the idea that Kansas City's outfield is defensively sound, which shows some understanding of nuance.)

Greinke's triumph is more interesting on a macro level is the possibility that Greinke's recovery from depression and comfort in the small market of Kansas City reveals a new market inefficiency in baseball.

And more interesting on a micro level? Greinke's recent hobbies. Asked what he was doing with his time, Greinke replied, "I've been playing this World of Warcraft game a lot."

See, slovenly gamers? You could be world-class athletes, too! Just, uh, work out a lot, and develop a devastating slider. Remember to try to keep your FIP low.

There is progress for you, and the sabermetric community, to find in Greinke's win. Just don't forget that this is not a sea change, but the first wave on the shore.

This post originally appeared on the Sporting Blog. For more, see The Sporting Blog Archives.