Time To Sell High On Chris Johnson?

Titans' RB Chris Johnson is on fire.  He's leading the league in rushing yards, yards per carry and yards per game.  No matter which fantasy metric you use, Johnson is having a fantastic season.

But is his season too good to be true?

There are reasons to believe that it is.  Johnson's 824 rushing yards have come in only seven games, for an amazing average of 117.7 yards per game.  That's an average that Adrian Peterson has never reached in his short career.  LaDanian Tomlinson hasn't done it in his long career.  In fact, in the past ten seasons only three players have averaged at least 117.7 yards per game - oddly enough all three accomplished it during the 2003 season.  Jamal Lewis (129.1 yards per game), Clinton Portis (122.4 yards per game) and Ahman Green (117.7 yards per game) helped make 2003 a banner year for fantasy running backs but three times in ten full seasons is still a rare accomplishment.  Can Chris Johnson really keep up that kind of historic pace?  Probably not.

Another thing to look at is his yards per carry average.  Many fantasy owners discounted DeAngelo Williams' 2008 season when they realized that he averaged 5.5 yards per carry.  It appeared very unlikely that Williams could carry that 5.5 yards per carry averaging into 2009 -- a decision that seemed to be correct since he's averaging only 4.4 yards per carry so far this season.

Chris Johnson has only had 119 carries for an unheard-of 6.9 yards per carry average.  It seems very, very unlikely that he can continue with that average.  Going back to that 2003 season, even the great performances of Lewis (5.3 yards per carry), Green (5.3 yards per carry) and Portis (5.5 yards per carry) pale in comparison to Johnson's gaudy numbers.

While Johnson is a great running back and a legitimate contender for the league rushing title, all the signs point to a drop-off in production for the rest of the season.  If you can work a way to trade Johnson for Adrian Peterson or for an elite quarterback, you might want to jump on it.  If somebody offers you Johnson in a trade, you might want to think twice.  Odds are that Johnson's red hot season is bound to cool off a bit.