I am new to this site but have followed the draft for years. It always amazes me when a team forgoes a sure thing in the draft but rather reaches for a player. It might not be true but these types of moves seem to come from poor teams that need good players. Anyway I have formed the following theories of drafting.
Players (except quarterbacks) that rate as a top 5 pick should always be picked by poor teams in the top 5. Of course there are exceptions to the rule but if my team had a top 5 pick I wouldn't take the third best OT just because I need an OT.
Never take a QB if you have no defense. I don't know where the "you have to start a team with a QB" theory came from but a good defense can build a winning team quicker than drafting a good QB. Many adequate free agent QB's are serviceable for a short term.
Franchise QB's are rare and even then those taken in the top 15 picks only work out 50-60% of the time. If you have an opportunity to draft one be 100% sure your GM and coach are going to be there for a long time. QB's are only great in a matching system. To many teams draft a QB then change their coach. The new coach changes the system and the losing continues.
If you are picking 6-14 then you need the absolute best player available at any position, except for those positions filled by young stars on your team. You need depth to win. Don't hesitate to take a great player.
If your team is good enough to be picking after the top 15 then take the player you have rated higher that everyone else has passed on. You can never go wrong accepting a gift.
This years draft?
Cleaveland- You are a bad team. Take the best of the top 5 non QBs available
Saint Louis- You are a bad team. Take the best of the top 5 non QBs available
Tampa Bay- You are a bad team. Take the best of the top 5 non QBs available
Detroit- You are a bad team with a Franchise QB. Make sure you get a top 5 OT.
Kansas City You are a bad team with a franchise QB. Get a top 5 player no matter how
clever you think you are at drafting
Oakland. You are a bad team. Follow the five rules above. Defense might be a good idea.
You might actually start by hiring a GM and player personnel department that knows
something about football in this century.
Thanks for allowing me to join the board. What are your rules?