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The Auction System Can Fix NFL's Overtime



Rich McKay, co-chairman of the NFL's competition committee, said two days ago that sudden death overtime in the NFL is “good” because it’s “fun.” Then, in his next breath, acknowledged that 60% of the time, the team that wins the coin flip wins the game. How fun.

McKay claims they’re looking into solutions to fix the overtime system. As Jon Bois at Mouthpiece points out, a recent Slate article analyzes an incredibly awesome overtime alternative:

An ... elegant solution to the overtime problem was proposed in 2002 by Chris Quanbeck, an electrical engineer (and Green Bay Packers fan). Quanbeck's idea was to auction off possession of the ball in the natural currency of the game: field position. The team that was willing to begin closest to its own goal line would receive the privilege of possession.

Football's number crunchers reckon that this "privilege" turns dubious about 15 to 20 yards away from your own goal line. That is, the expected value of having the ball so far back is negative -- it's more likely that your opponent will score before you do. But it's not clear that the same would be true in overtime, when teams would be attempting to get within field-goal range rather than trying for touchdowns. If this system were implemented, it might take a couple of seasons for a consensus to develop about how far back is too far back. Still, everyone would be trying to work that out from a position of equal ignorance.

This idea might not be as good as any that KSK proposes, but it’s certainly fairer than the current system. And that’s not even my opinion. It’s math. A Columbia economist used a bunch of mind-blowing formulas to determine that the auction system is the best solution.

My only stipulation: There must be a lectern with an actual auctioneer presiding over the bidding war. I would appreciate it if he’d also be wearing a cowboy hat and holding a gavel. If we’re gonna do this, it has to be authentic.

This post originally appeared on the Sporting Blog. For more, see The Sporting Blog Archives.

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Here’s an idea…Win the game in the first 4 quarters.

by zpwilson on Feb 20, 2009 12:29 PM EST reply actions  

Learn from the college game and have an overtime session that is exciting and gives each team an opportunity to score. OK, so fantasy games may need to be adjusted in a variety of ways, but there is something neat about lining ’em up for a potential scoring frenzy for the win.

by coreno on Feb 20, 2009 1:03 PM EST reply actions  

Have they ever given a reason why they won’t adapt the college football OT method?  Now THAT is exciting and about as fair a system you can get.  Sudden death is just ridiculous.  A coin-flip is going to ruin a SuperBowl one of these days.

by iamsloopy on Feb 20, 2009 1:22 PM EST reply actions  

Have they ever given a reason why they won’t adapt the college football OT method?

Yes, because it fundamentally alters the game. Knowing that you have 4 downs to make a first or score a touchdown fundamentally alters the game.

by J Bone A on Feb 20, 2009 1:44 PM EST reply actions  

That picture with the hat.. reminds me of one Captain Murphy
http://i48.photobucket.com/albums/f237/mrnotion484/Sealab_2021_The_Policy_2002_4.jpg

by npcPronk29 on Feb 20, 2009 3:39 PM EST reply actions  

zpwilson | Friday, February 20, 2009, 12:29 pm
"Here’s an idea…Win the game in the first 4 quarters."

THANK YOU! Here’s a follow-up idea: play defense if you lose the toss. And stop whining. Auctioning off field position is the stupidest thing I have ever heard. This is not "Name that Tune." Funny how a lot more people seemed to care about this after the Colts gagged one away.

by ChiAdam on Feb 20, 2009 3:45 PM EST reply actions  

And enough with all this "fair" bullsh*t. A team that had 60 minutes to win a game has no business hiding behind one drive. Why don’t we just stop keeping score completely? That way no one has to lose. Injuries are not "fair" either, so from now on if Team A loses their starter at one position then Team B has to bench their starter at the same position. We have to be fair. Just ask the guy from Columbia that does not know a football from a hockey puck.

by ChiAdam on Feb 20, 2009 3:53 PM EST reply actions  

Yeah, fair is so stupid! I enjoy giving one team an unfair advantage. Makes things so much more interesting.

by cmottram on Feb 20, 2009 3:59 PM EST reply actions  

There are two sides of the ball. If the game is nothing but a contest to see who has a better offense then send the D off the field and just see who drops less passes or cramps up first. But it is nice to see how much my opinion means to you. Who are you again?

by ChiAdam on Feb 20, 2009 4:56 PM EST reply actions  

McKay, the co-chairman of the NFL’s competition committee, said Wednesday he believes the group needs to discuss possible overtime rules changes even though there may not be overwhelming support to change it.

"Sudden death is a good procedure. It’s fun and everyone knows the rules," McKay said. "I would like to see the stats change because I don’t like the fact that that the team winning the coin flip now wins 60 percent of the time, and the team winning the coin flip, 40-plus percent of the time, wins it on the first possession."

Based on McKay’s comments I don’t see what the problem is. He says the team winning the flip wins the game 60% of the time, which certainly seems like an unfair advantage.

However, the team winning the coin flip does so less than 50% of the time on it first possession. This means that more than 50% of the time BOTH teams have had an offensive possession in OT. Everyone seems to be complaining about both teams having an opportunity on offense in OT, but the stats show that more than half the time they do. Admittedly the team losing the coin flip does not get an offensive possession 100% of the time, which is what many seem to want. The stats show that winning the flip does not mean you’ll score on the first drive.

That the team winning the flip wins 60% of the time but only about 40% of wins are on the first drive suggests that the team losing the coin toss is squandering the opportunity to win when it has the ball; although that team also likely starts deeper in its own zone than the team with first possession.

I’m inclined to say leave OT alone. If you lose the coin toss then it’s up to your kickoff team to do its job by pinning the opponent deep and up to your defense to do its job and force a punt.

by wil_dew on Feb 20, 2009 4:56 PM EST reply actions  

I assure you, your opinion is invaluable to us.

by cmottram on Feb 20, 2009 5:00 PM EST reply actions  

The auction method actually makes sense, but it would never be adopted by the NFL.  

Maybe the team winning the coin toss gets the ball on their own 25 yard line or they can elect to give their opponent the ball on their own 25 yard line and play defense instead.  First one who scores wins. I’m not a fan of the college style OT for the pro game, and the current method is definitely not fair.

by Tileking59 on Feb 20, 2009 5:17 PM EST reply actions  

TK – That’s pretty much what it is now, minus the outcome of the return on the kickoff. First team to score is not fair, anyway. Both teams get the ball and we go back and forth until one team passes out. Then some silly broad named Chris Mottram takes everyone out for pizza in the TSN minivan.

by ChiAdam on Feb 20, 2009 5:23 PM EST reply actions  

Keep playing regular 15 minute quarters until their is a winner.

by clemente1972 on Feb 20, 2009 9:03 PM EST reply actions  

why not just eliminate field goals in ot?

by scurds on Feb 20, 2009 9:04 PM EST reply actions  

Mottram.. I’m dying to know.

Mottram.. I’m dying to know.Why are you the object of so many people’s hatred?

Mottram.. I’m dying to know.Why are you the object of so many people’s hatred?Did you piss in their cornflakes or something?

by npcPronk29 on Feb 20, 2009 10:12 PM EST reply actions  

They should bring out two starving, raving pitbulls in the jerseys of the respective teams, and settle the issue of possession regarding the opening kickoff Ron Mexico style.

by L'etat, c'est moi on Feb 21, 2009 11:20 PM EST reply actions  

if defense wins championships then defense should be able to win on OT!… ITS THAT SIMPLE!

all these whiners…you want to avoid OT……win during regulation!

by tresmang on Feb 22, 2009 12:23 PM EST reply actions  

While I agree that the defense still has the right to stop the offense in OT, I still like the college system better. Especially if one is looking for excitement, then that’s the way to go. Remember the 2003 Fiesta Bowl? 2006 Fiesta Bowl? Two of the best bowl games ever played right there, and were made so because of the overtime system that is used.

by tm33_08 on Feb 22, 2009 2:52 PM EST reply actions  

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