I've been sitting on the "Roush-Fenway must go down to 4 cars for next year" story for a few weeks, but I guess it has been a slow week and some of the other blogs and sites have jumped on the story already.
Truth be told I was waiting until the summer before I was going to write about it, but what the heck iImay as well do so now and be like everyone else with one exception I don't necessarily agree with what everyone else is saying.
I hate people who jump on band wagons so if you expect me to say its Jamie McMurray that is leaving Roush-Fenway at the end of the year you'll be waiting for a long time because I'm not.
Certainly the speculation is that it is going to be Jamie because he has under-achieved since he got to Roush-Fenway and it would be no surprise if he were let go at the end of the season but performance is not the only issue to consider here.
Sponsors have a big say in who represents them both on and off the track and if Roush-Fenway gets a big paying sponsorship program that wants McMurray instead of what the organization has to offer then you can bet your first born that McMurray will be staying and someone else will be sent packing - especially in this economy where sponsorship dollars are becoming more difficult to secure.
Something to consider anyway.
Another possibility is that Roush partners up with another Ford team through a 'technical alliance' and sends one of his drivers that way complete with Roush backing. Boris Said's operation is a natural choice as are the Wood Brothers and maybe even Yates Racing (although that might be streching it a bit).
Now McMurray and Ragan would be good choices to do that with, but having a driver with a larger profile would work too so they could get a good sponsor to go along with the idea too.
The thing to remember here is that Roush is going to do what is best for Roush-Fenway and if that invovles a major shake up like getting rid of someone like Matt Kenseth then that is exactly what he will do.
So don't write off Jamie McMurray just yet.