+3
We'll be adding other Start/Sits to this story, so keep checking back.
The first game is in the books, but we have 15 more contests this weekend that should have infinitely more fantasy impact than last night's low scoring game. Week one is always the hardest to predict because we had preseason surprises from guys who probably won't actually play this week, and we didn't get to see much of the guys who will be fantasy staples each week. I'll try to avoid the obvious top-tier guys. We all know you play guys like Tom Brady and Adrian Peterson, regardless of match up.
Quarterbacks:
Matt Hasselbeck, QB SEA ~ Playing this week against a weak St. Louis defense you can almost pencil in a 2-3 TD performance and 300+ yards passing.
Shaun Hill, SFO - The Cards rank 31st against the pass. Nuff said.
Joe Flacco, BAL - Yes, I called his number. The Ravens are playing the lowly Chiefs this weekend and the team is opening up Flacco's play book. With the running game doing most of the work, look for Flacco to get some nice open shots, and a lot of yardage. His primary target will be Todd Heap, who is regaining some of his old luster and is playing against a team who was 27th in points allowed to TE's last year.
Carson Palmer, CIN - Play him while he's healthy, and facing a weak defense.
Mark Sanchez, NYJ - I like this kid a lot, and so does my colleague Mike Sholty.
So you think I’m a certified nut for recommending Sanchez in the first game of his NFL career? Am I really that crazy though? Sanchez has been very impressive in the preseason throwing 24 – 37 with 347 PaYds, 3 TDs and only 1 INT. Forget what you learned about Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco last year. This kid is beyond a "spot starter" in 12 team leagues. This kid is the real deal, and he will show us all from the start why he was one of the top draft picks. I expect him to be in the top 15 QBs this year but I really really wouldn’t be surprised if he was a top 10 QB by the end of the year.
Running Backs:
Mike Bell, NO - Pierre Thomas is likely out this week, and Bell will make the most of it. He's a waiver grab in most leagues.
Ray Rice, BAL - I've received several e-mails this week about whether to play Rice, and my answer is Hell Yes. The Chiefs rush defense is terrible, and Rice should easily eclipse 100 yards.
Cedric Benson, CIN - I loathe to call this guy's name, ever, but this is the week I'm forced to. I expect a big game from Benson, then I recommend selling him while his value is high.
Fred Jackson, BUF - The lone bright spot this week for the Bills may be Jackson, who will be fed the ball often, as their passing game struggles.
Julius Jones, RB, SEA. Jones is terrible, and I ultimately see him giving way to Edgerrin James and Justin Forsett, but in week one I think he'll hit the 100 yard mark. St. Louis was tragic against the run last season, and in game three last year Jones lit them up for 140 yards, 1 TD and a 6.4 YPC clip. It was his best performance of 2008.
Wide Receivers:
Josh Morgan, SFO - Shaun Hill's top receiving threat will get plenty of looks, especially if the Arizona offense gets off to a sizable lead. The Cards rank 31st against the pass.
Donnie Avery, STL - Seattle ranked dead last against the pass, and Marc Bulger will need to open it up early and often to keep up and take some pressure off Steven Jackson.
Chris Henry, CIN - Henry converts his preseason magic in week one against the Broncos, while Champ Bailey is busy lock-stepping Ochocinco.
Anthony Gonzalez, IND ~ This is Gonzo's year to break it big, and he starts this week, while the Jags double team Reggie Wayne.
Tight Ends:
Jeremy Shockey, NO - This might be the only week I call his name. Detroit surrendered the third most points to tight ends in 2008, and Brees likes to find his tight ends. With Billy Miller out, that leaves Shock-monkey. Not to mention Sean Peyton is the man you want coaching your fantasy player.
Dustin Keller, NYJ - I think Keller begins his breakout campaign this week against the Texans.
Vinsanthe Shiancoe - While the Browns play tight ends tough, my gut tells me Favre finds him for a score this weekend.
Todd Heap, BAL - He may not be all he once was, but he and Flacco have been connecting this preseason.
Kellen Winslow, TB - Winslow may be the lone bright spot for the Bucs this week.
Zach Miller, OAK - He may be the lone Raider to find the end zone this week.
Kickers:
Josh Brown, STL - Seattle surrendered the most points to kickers last year, and Brown is coming home. I like him to have a nice day.
Joe Nedney, SFO - Something tells me he'll be kicking a lot Sunday.
Defense:
Cincinnati Bengals Defense - They make a nice plug and play option against a struggling Denver Broncos team.
San Diego Chargers Defense - The Raiders are just not much of a threat right now. Their passing and running games are a mess. I break down all the defensive angles here team by team.
Quarterbacks:
Matt Cassell, KC - Or whoever plays in his place. Week one is going to be a fantasy wasteland this week for the Chiefs.
Matthew Stafford, DET - He may have a few viable weeks, but he'll barely be on the field in week one, and his 4-1 interception to TD rating doesn't bode well for a grand start.
Kyle Orton, DEN - Why would you ever play this guy? Plus Brandon Marshall is just now getting back into action and Orton isn't 100%.
Trent Edwards, BUF - I like Edwards this year, but he hasn't had time to gel with his receivers, and they play the Pats on the road.
Eli Manning, NYG - The G-men rely on the running game, and Manning has yet to find confidence with any of his young receivers. The Redskins gave up the 7th fewest points to QB's last season. I expect a tight air game.
Running Backs:
Jamal Lewis/James Davis, CLE - Bench any running back playing the Minnesota defense if you have better options.
Pierre Thomas, NO - He's not likely to play and if he does, he will lose a lot of snaps to Bell and Bush.
Larry Johnson, KC - He'll have the weight of the team on his shoulders, and the weight of the Ravens defense on his back.
Clinton Portis, WAS - Portis still has gas in the tank, but he'll be stuck in a traffic jam of defensive linemen this week. He won't have much fantasy value in week one.
Darren McFadden, OAK - Too many questions, too few opportunities.
Wide Receivers:
Lee Evans/Terrell Owens, BUF. This week against the Pats does not bode well for either Bills receiver. If you have a better option play them. Otherwise, cross your fingers.
Dwayne Bowe, KC - It's hard to bench a starter, but against the Ravens D, and a wobbly quarterback situation, I don't see any value this week for Bowe.
Torry Holt, JAX - Torry was a nice pick up for the Jags, but he won't pay dividends this week. If any Jacksonville receiver breaks out, look for Troy Williamson to get behind the secondary.
Ted Ginn, Jr., MIA - He has bust written all over him this preseason, and I certainly don't see him breaking out against Atlanta.
Antonio Bryant, TB - He had his 15 minutes of fantasy glory, the Cowboys will help bring him back to earth this week.
Tight Ends:
Tony Gonzalez, ATL - Love me some G, but not against the Miami defense which were murder on tight ends last season (4.2 fantasy points per game). That said, unless you have a stud back up, you may be stuck playing him. And of course, Tony is the one tight end who can defy all the odds.
Chris Cooley, WAS - If you have a solid back up, bench him against the G-men this week who surrendered a mere 3.7 fantasy points per game last season to tight ends.
John Carlson, SEA - I really like Carlson to have a big season, but in week one I think the heroes will be Julius Jones, Houshmandzadeh and Nate Burleson. Carlson will get some looks, but not enough to count.
Kickers:
Adam Vinitieri, IND - The golden leg is rusty and hurt. He will play but I have more confidence in him missing than hitting his marks.
Phil Dawson, CLE - It's going to be an ugly day for the Browns all the way around and I don't have any love for their lonely kicker this week.
Defense:
Chicago Bears Defense - I seldom recommend sitting these guys, but this week's game looks to be a shoot out.
by: Rustyn Rose @ Top Fantasy Football
If you got any Buffalo Bills or New England Patriots on your roster, click on over to Buffalo Rumblings for a game-specific Start/Sit.
To prepare you for the ecstasy and agony of the first NFL Sunday, here are some players to start, sit, or in Jamal Lewis' case, take out to pasture.
Quarterbacks
Joe Flacco -- He has been more than impressive in preseason completing 40 of 61 passes for 470 yards and no interceptions. That is what we call efficient. TD's will be hard to come by but he is a good matchup play especially at home verse the KC Chiefs.
Matt Hasselbeck -- If you have Hass you may want to run him out there before he sneezes and ruptures his back again. And at home against the Rams is the time to do that. With a consistent receiver in Houshmandzadeh, a well rested back and a game in the Emerald City against a bad defense there isn't much else you can ask for.
Carson Palmer -- Is he back? His ankle sprain has some worried, but he has been practicing and looking fine and he gets the Broncos poor pass D in the Jungle. With the reemergence of Chris Henry and talk of a Ochocinco comeback things look good for Palmer. If you drafted him you have to play him here.
Running Backs
Mike Bell -- As long as Pierre Thomas is dinged up, Bell should get the bulk of the carries (goaline included), while Bush gets the passes out of the backfield and maybe lined up out wide. Against the Detroit Lions you have to throw him out there. There is more than a good chance he'll get a touchdown and 75+ yards.
Cedric Benson -- Nobody wants the Bengals Benson, really, but some of you have him, right? He is the starter on a NFL team and his backup Bernard Scott has yet to learn how to block, so he doesn't have much competition, and he actually looked decent in preseason. Add to that, he's at home against the Broncos and he's a must start.
Ray Rice -- Ray Rice has pretty much won the starting tailback job in Baltimore. Yes, he won't get 30 carries a game, but he will get 15-20 carries with 5 receptions a game and that adds up to 100+ yards, especially against the Chiefs.
Wide Receivers
Lance Moore -- Well, you are starting Colston and Brees and any Saint RB that has a pulse, you might as well get Moore in there. The Lions will do their best to keep Colston from beating them and that means Moore will get his work in.
TJ Houshmandzadeh -- Hass and Housh have already shown some chemistry. There is no way he doesn't catch 7+ for 100 yds and a TD against the Rams. No WAY!!!!
Donnie Avery -- He's practicing again, and playing against the Seattle secondary will probably be easier than practice. Check to make sure Bulger is playing, which he looks to be, and get Avery in your lineup. Seattle's pass D was already bad when they lost Marcus Trufant until week 7. I think I could catch a ball or two against them.
Quarterbacks
Matt Cassell -- This may be a bit of a no-brainer, but if you haven't been paying attention, Cassel is hurting and they are playing in Baltimore. It won't be pretty.
Kyle Orton -- I have some hope for Orton this year. He has a great offense to work with and eventually will get things going, but the guy didn't look great in preseason and has stitches in his throwing finger. Add to that Brandon Marshall doesn't completely know the offense and Knowshon Moreno isn't 100%, and you have a recipe for disaster.
Rookie QB's -- Sometimes as fans of a team we get a little excited about our new young stud QB's. This year Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez have looked strong and poised and, well, green. If you have any inkling to throw them out there because of their good matchups against the Saints and Texans, don't. No matter how poor the defense they will confuse and cause rookie QB's to make mistakes. many mistakes.
Running Backs
Larry Johnson -- I still believe LJ has some gas in the tank, but don't expect anything from the Chiefs' RB in Baltimore. With Cassel hurting, the Chiefs traveling northeast, and the Ravens being, well, the Ravens it will be a long day for LJ.
Knowshon Moreno -- I am high on Moreno this year, but his week one is fraught with peril. First, even though he says he is ready, he also says he isn't 100%. Second, he has barely played in preseason. Third, the Bengals rush defense isn't nearly as bad as their orange and black colors make them seem. Fourth, Kyle Orton will be playing with a bum finger. Fifth, Buckhalter and Hillis could easily get the bulk of the carries. Stay far away.
Jamal Lewis -- You drafted Lewis because he is a starter for a NFL team. And that's all he is. If he averages over 2 yards a carry against the Vikings I will spit out this iced coffee and blame it on someone else. I'm not just writing this just for week 1, he needs to just be sat for the rest of the season.
Wide Receivers
Dwayne Bowe -- Well, I guess that makes all the Chiefs players now.
Vincent Jackson -- In a full body cast Nnamdi Asomugha could hold VJax to 3 receptions. With just a cast on his wrist Jackson might as well just scrape out a little depression in the field for napping.
Patrick Crayton -- The Bucs were tough on #2 receivers last season. Look for Witten and Williams to get the bulk of passes.
In Week 1, Dance with the Girl You Brought
As we approach the first full slate of NFL action, fantasy owners are looking at their rosters with anticipation and wonderment, surely saying to themselves, "I have assembled you together to create the greatest fantasy team to ever play a pretend game."
We have match-ups to break down, offseasons to interpret, and expectations to spell out. But often at this time every year, fantasy owners get too hung up on analyzing the landscape of the league as it pertains to their lineup. That is why my first Start/Sit column begins with this very basic, obvious piece of advice:
Start of the Week:
Whomever you drafted first or paid the most for in your draft is the Start of the Week. Let's not get too cute. Every single fantasy team out there has a Start of the Week in Week 1 as far as I'm concerned. In an auction draft, you spent the highest amount of money on one guy. In a traditional snake draft, you made one guy your 1st round draft pick. This is your stud. If you can't start this guy in Week 1 because of a match-up issue, or because of weather, or because of a questionable offseason, you made a foolish investment. Anything can happen after the first whistle blows on Sunday. You have to believe that the guy you made your top priority in the draft is going to be the guy that turns in the best performance of the first week. For that matter, the top 5 players or so on your roster going into Week 1 are no-brainers.
Well that was easy. But just so SBNation doesn't feel like they wasted the pesos they paid me, let's focus on some middle-tier players that I think are good starts this week. If you have these guys on your roster, you may very well be deciding whether or not to give them a shot in the topsy-turvy world of Week 1. These are gamble picks to be certain, but the difference between winning and losing each week in fantasy comes down to that one mystery guy who either blows up on your bench or in your starting lineup.
PUT ME IN COACH!
Shaun Hill, QB SF - I would wager most teams drafted Hill as a backup to their stud quarterback, but if you went bargain hunting for QB's in the middle to late rounds of the draft, and Hill is in your rotation, start him. His opponent, the Cardinals, allowed the most passing touchdowns in the league last year. If Frank Gore and Glen Coffee can keep the ground game churning for the 49ers, Hill will find some openings in the secondary. Josh Morgan, Isaac Bruce, Arnaz Battle and Vernon Davis should be able to get open, and with the confidence that Singletary has placed in him, Hill will take some chances.
Reggie Bush, RB NO - How did the former Heisman winner and top draft pick turn into a risky fantasy starter? Well, most likely because it appears more and more likely that parts of his body are made completely out of glass. My colleague Chet would have you tap Mike Bell as the Saint who will benefit most from Pierre Thomas' absence. I am of the opinion that Bush is going to not only get the touches he would have gotten with Thomas on the field, but he will share with Bell the touches that Thomas would have had. His fantasy output should be increased in this situation, and going against Detroit doesn't hurt either.
Malcolm Kelly, WR WAS - Oh God...here I go naming a Redskin in my Start 'em/Sit 'em piece. You must be calling me a moron even as you read these words, to which my reply is, "Shuh your mouth. Shuh-Shuh your mouth...shuh your mouth." (Name the movie.) He is going to start this game opposite Santana Moss. The Giants' defense is going to have to pay attention to Moss and Chris Cooley and who's kidding who--they simply aren't afraid of Kelly beating them. Jason Campbell and Jim Zorn are going to push the ball to Kelly if for no better reason than to make sure teams know they won't throw it to Cooley and Moss exclusively. We'll rightfully call Kelly our Gamble of the Week. Bet on him to have a surprisingly solid fantasy week.
Jermichael Finley, TE GB - No, I am not drunk. Listen, if you drafted Dallas Clark, Chris Cooley or Jason Witten, you don't care about this start pick. Move along. For the rest of us, we know that every year a guy comes out of obscurity to crush it at the tight end position. This year I am naming Finley as that guy. If Kelly was our Gamble of the Week, then we'll call Finley our Shot in the Dark of the Week. But don't be scurrrrrrrred. This guy can play and Aaron Rodgers is going to get more and more comfortable with him as the weeks progress.
GRAB SOME PINE!
Eli Manning QB, NYG - Super Bowl schmuper bowl. The Giants this year will be leaning on their running game. Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw will be relied upon to move the chains. Eli will escape the dreaded "Game Manager" label, but until he figures out who he can rely on regularly in his receiving corps, he is not a great starting option. The Redskins have a stingy defense as it is, and they boast a quality pass defense. Eli is going to have to prove it before you count on him in the fantasy world.
Chris Johnson, RB TEN - GENIUS! How did I ever know? AAAARRRGGGGHHHH!!! Yeah, I started him last night. What was I thinking? Everything about this game had bust written all over it: in Pittsburgh, against a stout rushing defense, on opening night. Dear Jebus!
Terrell Owens WR, BUF - Many are of the mindset that T.O. is a guy you "must start" if you own him. I don't buy that...yet. The Buffalo offense looked absolutely depressing this preseason, ultimately leading to the firing of yet another offensive coordinator. On top of that, I sincerely doubt that the Patriots are going to allow Terrell to run free in their secondary. The one thing going for T.O. is that this game is on national TV, and he always does something for the cameras on national TV. My money is on a nationally televised sideline argument though. Trent Edwards is going to force him the ball and it is going to end badly.
Kellen Winslow, TE, TB - His name screams start. His game screams bench right now. After all, he only caught one pass this preseason for 5 yards. The Tampa Bay offense is like...ummmm...how to put this delicately...a turd wrapped in a dirty tissue stuffed inside a bag of vomit. You might consider playing some wait-and-see with this team before putting any Buccaneers in your starting lineup.
Well, good luck to all of you. I hope you drafted well. Next week, we will start facing the reality of a potentially crappy roster, and players worth starting sooner rather than later in leagues that use cumulative scoring.
Sep 11 8:32p by Ken Meringolo - 0 comments