Early AL Rookie of the Year Discussion: Oakland A's Andrew Bailey

If you are not familiar with Nolan Reimold, don't feel too bad: he plays for the Orioles, the second-worst team in the American League. Reimold is Baltimore's rookie left fielder, and one of the team's many young players that are keeping Orioles fans sane and focusing on the future (also see: Nick Markakis, Matt Wieters and Adam Jones). Now take this time to familiarize yourself with Reimold, because he is quite good at baseball. So good that the Orioles want him considered for the 2009 A.L. Rookie of the Year award.

In the past 25 seasons, only four players have led all American League rookies in four of five primary offensive categories - batting average, home runs, RBIs, on-base percentage and slugging percentage.

Reimold could become the fifth.

Heading into [Friday] night's game at Yankee Stadium, Reimold is tied for first in batting average with Chicago's Gordon Beckham (.274) and ranks first in homers (14), on-base percentage (.364) and slugging percentage (.461). He's second in RBIs with 42, trailing Beckham by 10.

It's probably worth noting that Beckham is third in homers (10), second in on-base percentage (.350) and second in slugging percentage (.458).

There have been four players since 1985 to lead the AL rookies in four categories -- Tim Salmon, Nomar Garciaparra, Ben Grieve and Evan Longoria -- and all four were named Rookie of the Year.

Awards season exposes one of the most enduring rifts in the baseball community: that between traditionalists who love RBIs, batting average and ERA, and the SABR crowd who clamor for people to pay attention to VORP, WARP, and ERA+. This year is no different.

SB Nation blog DRaysBay takes exception with Jon Heyman for listing Tigers phenom Rick Porcello at the top of his AL Rookie of the Year ballot, and leaving off the vastly under-appreciated Jeff Nieman. From DRaysBay:

Ok, so I can't leave these numbers out even though they won't help Niemann's case. While Niemann isn't as good as his 3.67 ERA, his FIP is still above average. Both have weak K/9's, but Niemann's is nearly a full K better. Niemann sports a better K/BB and a shinny HR/9 of 0.87. Their BABIP's are near washes so "luck" isn't a factor in the ERA difference. Last, but not least, Niemann has been worth a full win more than Porcello.

 

Sure, Porcello is a 20-year-old, and going forward I'd take Porcello over Niemann 100 out of 100 times. But it's not the Rookie of the Year who's going to be better in the future award. For those who point out the age difference, please remember that Ichiro was named AL ROY.

For the SABR uniniated, FIP is "fielding independent pitching" and BABIP is "batting average on balls in play". FIP takes into account the number of walks, striketouts and home runs a pitcher gives up - the "three true outcomes" that the pitcher is solely responsible for - and spits out what the pitcher's ERA would be independent of the defense playing behind him. BABIP looks at the total number of balls in play, and how many of them get turned into hits.

Both stats peer under the hood of a pitcher's ERA and help determine how much of it is due to a strong supporting cast and pure luck. Considering these more advanced metrics, it seems fairly clear that Niemann has had a better year than Porcello. But Porcello plays on a winning team. And to writers like Heyman, that's all that matters. I love the Baseball Writers of America.