Is There A Disaster Brewing At USC?

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When rumors of USC head coach Pete Carroll's departure for pro football first began to swirl on Friday, it almost happened too fast to process. After years of hearing rumors putting Carroll with this team or that team in the NFL, overnight, it all became real. Nothing with Seattle has been made official, of course, but he's definitely serious this time. And now that we've had some time to let the news settle, it's worth considering some of the implications of his departure.

Because Southern Cal, for all their stumbles this season, is still one of the three or four most presitgious college football programs in the country. Why would Pete Carroll leave now?

Well, for one thing, the resolution of a broad NCAA investigation is looming. Yahoo's Dan Wetzel reports:

Sources with knowledge of the situation say the NCAA is in the final stages of what has become a two-sport, department-wide investigation into USC athletics. A source told Yahoo! Sports that Reggie Bush voluntarily met with NCAA investigators last summer to discuss allegations of receiving extra benefits from marketing representatives.

[...]

Details in the case date back to 2004, when Bush allegedly began receiving cash, clothes, cars, travel and a rent-free home for his mother and stepfather from marketing companies. The case could run through last month’s revelation that Joe McKnight ("the next Reggie Bush") was driving a SUV registered to an L.A.-area businessman. It also includes agent activity surrounding former basketball star O.J. Mayo that led to the resignation of coach Tim Floyd and the school sanctioning itself last month.

[...]

The Trojans represent a must-get for the NCAA, a case that is so over-the-top, so well-publicized and so blatantly against the most obvious of rules that it can’t allow the Trojans to escape without losing all credibility and dealing with an avalanche of national criticism. Many in college athletics wonder that if the NCAA can’t get USC, what’s the point of the operation?

[...]

All of this is why the NCAA has been so slow and cautious. Here’s how the system works: The NCAA enforcement staff (the cops) get one chance to present their findings to the infractions committee (the jury). That jury has built a recent reputation for turning a blind eye on even obvious violations, in part because it’s mostly made up of sympathetic athletic directors.

In the Bush case, the enforcement staff patiently has waited for all the possible facts to come out. This includes Bush’s potential under oath testimony in a lawsuit filed by Lake. If the NCAA acted swiftly, it would’ve missed out on speaking with Bush (or getting sworn testimony) and thus presented a weaker case to the jury.

It's a wide-ranging investigation, and many in the college football world doubted whether the NCAA was ever really serious about looking into the (alleged) infractions at USC. Now, though, it seems a verdict may finally come to fruition, with Carroll's departure perhaps the greatest cue of all that the program's headed for trouble.

Recently, the NCAA turned down USC's offer to self-impose sanctions for the investigation, and CBS' Charlie Casserly reported this afternoon that the NCAA's decision in that matter spurred Carroll to head for the NFL. Previously, it'd been widely assumed that Coach Carroll--who had a dream scenario at Southern Cal--would only leave for the NFL if he was given a lot of money and full control over player personnel decisions. In Seattle, he'll definitely satisfy the first condition, but probably not the second.

Why would Pete Carroll suddenly compromise his demands? Nothing's been stated explicitly from anyone involved, but let's use our powers of deduction. Given the context, you'd have to think that Carroll is preempting the NCAA investigators, and jumping ship while his reputation's still in tact.The writing's on the wall, and it's pretty simple.

Investigation + Inevitable Penalties = Carroll finally leaving.

Which equals a bleak future for the USC football program. For now, the most tangible losses are being felt in recruiting. We alluded to this yesterday, and today, Pete Thamel of the New York Times expounded:

[5-Star recruit Dillon] Baxter dreamed of playing for Carroll at U.S.C. but said it was now a "hot possibility that I’ll change." His high school recruiting coach has already been flooded with calls from programs like Florida, Oregon, Tennessee, U.C.L.A. and Arizona, he said.

[...]

There were players in the All-American Bowl who had planned to commit to the Trojans but decided against it, [5-star recruit D.J.] Morgan said.

"They don’t want to do it since Pete’s not going to be there," Morgan said.

If Carroll does leave U.S.C., Bob Lichtenfels, a recruiting analyst for Scout.com, said as many as seven of the players who have committed to the Trojans could sign with other teams.

"They feel let down and lied to," Lichtenfels said. "It’s going to be tough for whoever to make that up."

But right now, that might be the least of their concerns. Losing recruits may hurt in the short term, but Southern California could be in for much more prolonged losses at the hands of the NCAA. For years, Pete Carroll flirted with the NFL but ultimately decided to stick with the dream situation he had at USC. 

Maybe it's no coincidence that's he leaving now. Maybe USC's headed for a nightmare.