SB Nation's blog Mountain West Connection, an excellent source for all things MWC related, offers their preview for Monday night's Fiesta Bowl between No. 6 Boise State and No. 3 TCU. In its simpliest terms, the game will come down to the battle between the Broncos' running game the Horned Frogs' rush defense.
That sounds too simple, but if TCU can force Boise to be one-dimensional in the pass game this will allow TCU to use their speed and then blitz all out. However, Boise and Chris Peterson is smart enough to run the ball from the beginning to keep TCU and look for Boise to use misdirection and screen passes to counter the speed of the TCU defense.
By no means is Boise State slow or have a poor defense, but the main concern for Boise State is who to stop when TCU is running the ball. TCU has a diverse group of backs with not a single super star runner. They have four players who average 43 yards per game and each also average at least 5.2 per carry. Boise will also need to watch out for WR/KR Jeremy Kerley who is a stud return man, runs the ball in end arounds, as well as plays the wildcat position on designed runs. He is a play maker and needs to be watched at all times as he is able to make big plays any time he touches the ball.
The full preview is thorough, and includes looks at TCU's quarterback, Andy Dalton, plus a pair of key injuries that could slow down Boise State's explosive offense. MWC even offers a prediction.
I think the TCU defense will be the difference in stopping Boise State, but this game will be close like last year and if a team gets over 28 points I would be surprised.