Earlier we discussed some of the predictions being made by boxing media and those within the sport. Most writers, fighters and trainers are very firmly in the corner of Manny Pacquiao, with Antonio Margarito a live but heavy underdog.
Looking at the odds, it’s much the same. Bodog has Pacquiao installed as a -450 favorite, with Margarito the underdog at +300. In simple terms, that means to win $100 on Pacquiao, you have to put down $450. If you bet $100 on Margarito, and he wins, you’d take home $300.
Bodog has the over/under for the fight set at 9 1/2 rounds. Right now it’s at -135 that the fight ends under that, with even money on it going further. It’s also -240 that the fight won’t go the 12-round distance, and +180 that it will.
The favored outcome is a Pacquiao KO, TKO or DQ victory, with odds there being 5/7. Besides a draw (25/1), the toughest best is a Margarito win by decision, at 11/1. Margarito is 9/2 to win by KO, TKO or DQ, while Pacquiao is 11/4 to win by decision.
The odds are also calling for some highlight material, favoring over 1.5 knockdowns total in the bout (-280), and it’s -600 that there will be a knockdown or knockout in the course of the action. You can also make some prop bets on the scorecard of veteran HBO unofficial scorer (and longtime official ringside judge) Harold Lederman, but given Lederman’s unpredictable nature in recent years, I’d advise to stay away from those. (We love you, though, Harold.)
One thing to consider for the possible betting man or woman is today’s weigh-in. With a 150-pound catchweight agreed upon between the two sides, Margarito came in at 150 on the nose, while Pacquiao weighed in at 144.6. If you’re a big believer in size, Margarito already has a 5.4 pound advantage, and this is before they rehydrate heading into the fight. Margarito could conceivably be fighting around 160 pounds tomorrow, while the smaller Pacquiao is unlikely to rehydrate to more than 150 or so, and that might be an “at the most” projection. For the most part, only the heavyweights in boxing have weight differentials like this. Both looked fit and ready at the weigh-in, which was held inside Cowboys Stadium. Poor conditioning on either side doesn’t appear to be a factor, but the lines might move a little bit if bettors see this development as a huge swing for Margarito.