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Pac-10 Expansion Hinges On Colorado, And It's Probably Not Happening

The following is from new Pac-10 commissioner Larry Scott. Internet, commence tizzy:

It really is over the next six to 12 months that we'll start having serious analysis and serious conversations...It makes sense [to consider expansion], if you are going to do it, to do it when you can monetize it and get value for it commercially

What's that, internet, this happened yesterday and therefore you're already all tizzied out? And this whole Texas-talking-to-Big-Ten thing is too spaced out to even freak out about? I see.

If you can work yourself out of your punishing ennui about conference expansion, a brief word: I don't think the Pac-10 is actually going to make a move. In the West Coast version of all those posts about who's a fit for the Big Ten, Oregon blog Addicted to Quack convincingly sliced down everyone within 1,000 miles of a Pac-10 school except for the two schools shepherding the last, best West Coast TV markets:

Here are the top TV markets that are geographically possible:

Denver (18), Salt Lake City (33), Las Vegas (42), Albuquerque (44).  If you're really adventurous, there's also Honolulu (73) and Colorado Springs (91). …

Of the four top-50 markets that would be available to expand into, one thing stands out:  Denver is the gold mine.  The addition of Denver would give the conference eight top-30 markets.  Denver itself adds almost three million viewers, the state of Colorado as a whole almost five million.  Salt Lake City then becomes the next most attractive market at number 33.  This is why you hear about Colorado and Utah as the schools that the Pac-10 is targeting.

Utah would slit throats to get into a BCS conference, leaving Colorado the team that determines whether or not the Big 12 stands or falls. The Pac-10's hypothetical backup options are mediocre WAC/Mountain West teams too unpalatable for a supermajority of conference presidents to accept them. When it comes to academics, the Pac-10 is almost as snooty as the Big Ten, and the existing members of the conference would probably lose out financially if team twelve was Nevada or UNLV or even BYU. (BYU is an athletic fit but not a cultural one—they don't play on Sunday, period—or an academic one.)

So: would Colorado be ready to bolt its longstanding membership in the Big 8, ditch its conference rivalry with Nebraska, and deal with extreme travel distances to every road game? I've followed Missouri's reaction to this from my perch as a Big Ten blogger and their response has been decidedly lukewarm, and that's given the following parameters:

  • Missouri has a natural rival, Illinois, already in the Big Ten. Colorado does not have one in the Pac-10.
  • Missouri's geographic fit is considerably less wacky.
  • The Big Ten would slap Missouri in the mouth with ten million dollars a year, guaranteed, no funny stuff. The Pac-10 would be vaguely hoping to increase its presence without a channel and without the sort of TV-busting ratings the Big Ten pulls.

Despite this, Missouri feels like a tough pull for the Big Ten. Colorado will be even tougher for the Pac-10, and without Colorado the conference has nowhere else to go. In the end, Colorado will probably say no after extracting some concessions and the Pac-10 will probably figure they're better off the way they are right now.

This post originally appeared on the Sporting Blog. For more, see The Sporting Blog Archives.

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I have been having a discussion with some Pac 10 fans as to which Conference has the Harder Schedule. I hope this may help clear up the argument. I have tried to make it as user friendly, as possible.1. Here is the website for the SOS rankings that are figured by the BCS approved Computer rankings: SEC has 5 teams, Pac 10, only 2.http://bcscentral.info/sos.htmlAs stated before, these unbiased computer models take into account every conceivable stat that you can calculate to arrive at the best possible ranking. Note: Your Conference has every chance to end up ranked at the top as does any SEC school.For you Pac 10 fans that don’t seem to UNDERSTAND what STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE means or how it is computed… Please go to the BCS website and read what criteria is used in the calculation. From your comments, it is apparent that many of you don’t understand.2. Since 2000, the Southestern Conference has had more teams ranked in the final USA Today Coaches Poll than any other conference. The SEC has had 43 teams ranked in the last nine final USA Today Coaches polls, an average of almost five (5) per season. The Big 12 is second with 36 teams ranked since 2000. The SEC has led or tied for lead in most teams ranked in the final USA Today Coaches Polls in seven of the last nine seasons.What this means is many SEC schools have to play 4-5 ranked teams (according to the Final Poll) each year. EX: Many SEC teams had to play the Nations #1, #3, #17 & #20 ranked teams this year in Conference.Pac 10 teams had to play, at most, the #11 & #20 teams.3. The SEC played More BCS OOC Teams and Higher Ranked Teams in 2009. Read carefully guys, I have been trying to explain this to you all day!SEC: Wins: #2 TX, #9 Cincinnati, #10 V. Tech., #22 West Virginia, #13 GA Tech, #25 OK St, Unranked Wins: North Carolina St., Washington, Louisville, AZ St., TX A&M, Clemson, FL St, TX A&M, Northwestern, Losses: #8 P. St., #25 OK St., UCLA, #13 GA Tech, #13 GA Tech, Clemson, #10 V. Tech, UConn,Totals: Played – 23. Wins – 15 (65%). Losses – 8 (35%). Number of Ranked Teams played: 11 (48%)Ranked Teams Beaten: 6 Pac 10:Wins: #5 Ohio St, Unranked Wins: Maryland, Tenn, Purdue, Minnesota, Kansas St, Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Boston College, Losses: #17 LSU, Wake Forest, #7 Iowa, #9 Cincinnati, Georgia, Notre Dame, Notre Dame, #14 Nebraska, Oklahoma, #5 Ohio StTotals: Played – 19, Wins – 9 (47%), Losses – 10 (53%). Number of Ranked Teams played: 6 (32%)Ranked Teams Beaten: 1 What this says is the SEC has a harder schedule according to the Computers models (SOS). They have the hardest Conference schedule according to Final Season Rankings. And they have the Hardest BCS OOC Schedule! Any Question?

by Hyacenth House on Feb 12, 2010 4:15 PM EST reply actions  

First of all— to think the expansion process would play out without the ‘Pac10’ channel firmly in the works or up and running is foolish.  I don’t give trustees tons of credit, but I think they can walk and chew gum at the same time.

But basically, your entire premise breaks down to:

MO move to Big10 = easier than CO move to Pac10
MO bloggers = lukewarm
MO bloggers must = MO Board of Regents, Trustees, and Directors
Therefore MO Trustees = lukewarm
MO move to Big10 = Hard which = CO move to Pac10 = impossible

I’ll stop being facetious, but the two have NOTHING in common.

Try my math:
CO = An AD is that hemmoraghing money and needs loans from their U to stay afloat
CO = Nightmare Recent Past
CO = Horrible results on the field

CO needs to find their identity, the Big12 hasn’t been good to them.  A fresh start, A reboot if you will, along with some promise of concessions and money (once again, PAC10 can work on the network and spend the next couple years ‘studying’ and courting CO at the same time,) to get somewhat out of hock with their University.  Or—  Or— their big choice is sit and continue getting what they have gotten since the Big12 started.  

Gee— what would I do???? 

 

by umich4life on Feb 12, 2010 6:12 PM EST reply actions  

The Comcast deal with NBC is huge.  It will be great if NBC can get a saturday night Pac-10 national game of the week.  Do the Notre Dame game and then the Pac-10 game.  Easy ratings. 

by SailorGabe on Feb 14, 2010 7:30 PM EST reply actions  

PAC 10 does not need to expand, a better idea I have heard recently, I suggested last year  that Boise St move to MWC making 10 teams could play 8 team schedule or 9 like PAC10 and they should get automatic bid slot to Fiesta bowl.  Would have BSU, Utah, BYU and TCU as  very good teams, they should and would probably get an automatic bid slot. Thus creating a big 7……. but still I like my suggestion to create 6 BCS bowls, 4 present and 2 more creating 12 slots for a then mini 4 or better mini 8 playoff after bowls, to be completed NLT jan 2nd so mini playoff start same week the present BCS version os championship game is played.  Would have your ..big 7.. 7 auto slots and 1 or 2 non big 7 auto slots and rest at large, selected by group or NCAA right after big bowls done on 2nd, starting nest week 1-8, 2-7 etc, only last total of 3 weeks. The mini 4 only last 2 weeks, but key is to have 6 BCS bowls and ALL completed NLT Jan 2nd…..the other smaller bowls played 1 st week of Jan don’t matter for mini playoff.  between the 6 BCS bowls and then selected and seeded mini 8, would have a very good playoff sorta….
just a thought as I don’t like idea starting in Dec if it would mess with present bowl system, ADD the BCS bowls don’t take away from the others……with 6t BCS and mini 8 would be 13 BCS bowls, a nice amout of revenue for teams and league……..

by kraal2004 on Feb 15, 2010 12:23 PM EST reply actions  

newsflash for you, brian cook — BYU is ranked higher on academic grounds than Arizona, Arizona State, Washington State, Oregon, and Oregon State.  half of the PAC-10, for the math-impaired. 

limit your critique of BYU’s fit to the no-games-on-sunday policy.  that’s legitimate. 

by ruslan_sof on Mar 23, 2010 5:03 PM EDT reply actions  

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