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SB Nation's Chris Dobbertean breaks down which teams are on the right and wrong side of the NCAA Tournament bubble, and tells you which games to watch down the stretch as dozens of teams look to sneak into the field of 65.
Saturday wasn't a great day for Bubble Watch teams, as Houston and New Mexico State, stole bids, meaning two teams are destined for the NIT. Things could get even worse Sunday, if Mississippi State claims the SEC title.
If a team's name appears as a link, click it to visit that school's SB Nation blog for more coverage and analysis.
Two teams took advantage of the opportunity offered to them by claiming their conference's automatic bid on Saturday. Cal and UTEP are left to sweat, however.
Washington ended all doubt and claimed the Pac-10 crown with a 79-75 win over California (recap). The Golden Bears must now wait.
San Diego State also removed themselves from the bubble picture with a 55-45 victory over UNLV (recap).
Houston stole Conference USA's automatic bid by defeating regular season champion UTEP, 81-73 (recap).
New Mexico State won the Battle of the Aggies to claim the WAC crown over Utah State, 69-63 (recap). The Blue Aggies now find themselves with a nervous wait.
Sunday, two teams can get themselves off the bubble with wins in their conference championship games.
Minnesota, one of my "Last Five In," thoroughly embarrassed Purdue in their Big Ten semifinal, 69-42 (recap), holding the Boilermakers to 11 points in the first half. I'll be stunned if the Golden Gophers aren't in, barring a collapse against Ohio State in tomorrow's final.
Mississippi State moved closer to, but not into, the field with a 62-52 win over Vanderbilt (recap) in the SEC semifinals. The SEC West champs will next face Kentucky for the conference title (1 p.m. ET, ABC).
Louisville should be in even though they lost to Cincinnati in the Big East Second Round Wednesday.
Wake Forest should also hold on to a spot even though they were slammed by Miami in the ACC Opening Round Thursday.
California, UTEP and Utah State are here after losses Saturday.
Minnesota can book a place by winning the Big Ten.
So much for promoting Virginia Tech out of Bubble Watch. The Hokies dropped back down after they fell to Miami in their ACC Quarterfinal Friday. They fell out completely after New Mexico State's win.
Florida will have to sweat it out after their loss to Mississippi State Friday. The fact they came back to avoid a blowout against the Bulldogs helps; events around the country Saturday did not.
Illinois lost a double overtime thriller to Ohio State, 88-81 (recap), though they had chances to win the game at both the end of regulation and the first overtime. They just couldn't get a shot off. The loss came at a bad time, considering how Minnesota performed in the very next game.
Mississippi State can remove themselves from this group with a win over Kentucky.
Keep an eye on William & Mary, even though they lost to Old Dominion in the Colonial Athletic Association final Monday. They have enough quality wins to make a solid case, but some headscratching losses may keep them out.
UAB is likely on the outside looking in after they failed to beat Southern Mississippi in the Conference USA Quarterfinals Thursday.
Arizona State looks to be out of the running after they lost their Pac-10 Quarterfinal to Stanford.
Charlotte is off the board after they lost to Massachusetts at home in the Atlantic 10 Opening Round Tuesday.
Cincinnati had a chance to win at the end of regulation, but Dion Dixon couldn't hold on to the ball and Da'Sean Butler banked in a three when time expired to give West Virginia a 54-51 win in the Big East Quarterfinals Thursday, bursting the Bearcats bubble.
Dayton once again couldn't close out a close game, as they fell to Xavier in the Atlantic 10 quarterfinals Friday. That was a fatal loss for the Flyers.
Memphis, like UAB, is finished, as they lost their Conference USA Quarterfinal against Houston.
Mississippi really needed to beat Tennessee in the SEC quarterfinals to have a chance, but they fell by 11.
Rhode Island is out of the running after they lost to Temple for the third time this season, 57-44 (recap) in the Atlantic 10 semifinals in Atlantic City.
Seton Hall and South Florida are both likely finished after they lost Big East Second Round games Wednesday.
Wichita State lost their chance when they fell to Northern Iowa in the Missouri Valley final Sunday..
Here is the updated look at how the NCAA Tournament field stacks up heading into Selection Sunday. As the picture is far clearer now, I've cut out the "Next Four Out" group.
Click here for my Sunday morning bracket (forthcoming). For more on Sunday's games of importance, check my preview and recap post.
Click any team name that appears as a link to visit that school's SB Nation blog.
America East (Vermont), Atlantic Sun (East Tennessee State), Big Sky (Montana), Big South (Winthrop), Big West, Colonial (Old Dominion), Horizon (Butler), Ivy (Cornell), Metro Atlantic (Siena), Mid-American (Ohio), Mid-Eastern (Morgan State), Missouri Valley (Northern Iowa) Northeast (Robert Morris), Ohio Valley (Murray State), Patriot (Lehigh), Southern (Wofford), Southland (Sam Houston State), Southwestern (Arkansas-Pine Bluff), Summit (Oakland), Sun Belt (North Texas)
Conference USA: Houston*
Pacific-10: Washington*
Western Athletic: New Mexico State*
ACC: Duke*, Maryland, Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest
A-10: Temple*, Richmond, Xavier
Big East: Syracuse, West Virginia*, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Louisville
Big Ten: Purdue*, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Big 12: Kansas*, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Missouri, Oklahoma State
MWC: New Mexico, BYU, UNLV*
SEC: Kentucky*, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
WCC: Gonzaga, St. Mary's*
Teams with an asterisk hold their respective conference's automatic bid at the moment.
That takes care of 60 of the 65 teams. That leaves me to look at the last five teams in the field and the four who the best chance to replace them.
RPI data from Crashing The Dance and reflects games through Saturday, March 13. All records reflect games played against Division I opponents through Saturday, March 13.
After Saturday's action, Rhode Island, Mississippi and the "Next Four Out" teams are off the board.
California (23-10; 13-5 Pac-10; RPI: 20; Non-conf. RPI: 10): The Golden Bears would be safely in the field had they managed to beat Washington in the Pac-10 Tournament final on Saturday. However, they didn't, so they're now at the mercy of the Committee. Cal is likely to get credit for their conference title, but they don't really have much more to fall back on. The Bears have only two top 50 wins in eight chances (home wins over Washington, who they lost to twice, and Murray State), and are 4-1 against teams ranked 51-100. However, since the Pac-10 struggled as a whole this year, the bulk of Cal's wins came against teams ranked between 101 and 200. Cal will get some credit for the fact Theo Robertson was injured during a difficult non-conference stretch, but they may not have beaten Syracuse, Ohio State and New Mexico with him in the lineup.
Minnesota (21-12; 9-9 Big Ten; RPI: 59; Non-conf. RPI: 60): The Golden Gophers made an absolute statement in Indianapolis on Saturday, as they crushed Purdue in their Big Ten semifinal. They can end their bubble drama by beating Ohio State Sunday, but back-to-back victories over Michigan State and the Boilermakers on a neutral floor should be enough. Minnesota is now 6-8 this season against the RPI Top 100, with two of those wins coming at The Barn, where they defeated Ohio State and Wisconsin. They also beat Illinois on the road and Butler on a neutral courts. A 15-4 record against teams rated 101+, particularly the sweep at the hands of Michigan and a loss to Maurice Creek-less Indiana in Bloomington, doesn't help their case. The Gophers' road/neutral mark now stands at 7-9 road/neutral mark, not great, but there are some quality wins in the group.
Utah State (26-7; 14-2 WAC; RPI: 30; Non-conf. RPI: 56): The Aggies are another team that didn't have a great Saturday, as they fell to their Aggie rivals, New Mexico State, in the WAC final. That means they're not locked into the field. The Aggies did take advantage of two of their three opportunities against teams in the RPI Top 50, beating BYU and Wichita State. However, they fell to St. Mary's three days after they beat the Cougars. A 10-6 road/neutral record is a plus, but the Blue Aggies lost three of their best five true road games (at New Mexico State, Northeastern and Louisana Tech). Plus, they fell at Long Beach State and Utah. Additionally, before falling to NMSU, the Aggies had won 17 in a row.
UTEP (26-6; 15-1 C-USA; RPI: 38; Non-conf. RPI: 135): The Miners blew their chance to book an automatic bid, as they looked lost in the final moments against Houston in the C-USA final Saturday. They fall all the way down here because, upon closer inspection, their profile looks a lot like Memphis'. The Miners are 8-4 against the RPI Top 100, but only one of those wins, a game at New Mexico State, came against a team that's on the board. UTEP lost home games to BYU, New Mexico State (the local rivals play twice), a roadie at Texas Tech, and a semi-road game to Ole Miss. Plus, they lost twice to Houston. On the other hand, the Miners did win their other 17 conference games, which should be enough to keep them in.
Virginia Tech (23-8; 10-6 ACC; RPI: 58; Non-conf. RPI: 92): The Hokies wouldn't be here had they managed to defeat Miami in their ACC quarterfinal on Friday. In fact, they were in the field until New Mexico State won the WAC title. A 10-6 ACC record should be more than good enough, but the Hokies' abysmal non-conference schedule means they're in serious trouble. Virginia Tech owns a staggering nine wins over teams ranked below 200 in the RPI (plus one over Penn State, ranked 193rd), with three wins over teams below 300. Florida has seven (and three against 301+), but they have non-conference wins over Michigan State and Florida State. Virginia Tech's best non-conference win, Seton Hall, pales in comparison. On the other hand, Virginia Tech has finished better, winning seven of their last 12 (including a a 3-2 mark against teams in the field), while Florida is 6-6 and 1-3 against teams on the board.
First Four Out
Florida (21-12; 9-7 SEC; RPI: 56; Non-conf. RPI: 75): Florida's problem of late has been an inability to close games. The Gators have dropped four of their last five, and all four could have been victories had the offense not disappeared for stretches late. Billy Donovan's team is 3-8 against the RPI Top 50, but two of those wins came all the way back in November (at home against FSU and over Michigan State in Atlantic City). The other came against Tennessee in Gainesville. An 8-8 road/neutral record is OK. If Florida gets in, it will be because of an upgraded non-conference schedule, which also featured games against Richmond and Xavier (both losses).
Mississippi State (23-10; 9-7 SEC; RPI: 54; Non-conf. RPI: 69): The Bulldogs became the first SEC West team to beat one of the top four from the East when they defeated Florida Friday. They followed that victory up with a second over Vanderbilt Saturday. If they grab a third, over Kentucky on Sunday, the Bulldogs will be home clear as they automatic bid owner. Mississippi State may need it as their resume is a bit thin outside of this late run and a sweep of archrival Ole Miss. A win over Old Dominion in South Padre is the non-conference highlight and losses at Western Kentucky and against Rider in Starkville are major blemishes. If the entire "body of work" is important, the Bulldogs aren't a Tournament team as of yet.
Illinois (18-14; 10-8 Big Ten; RPI: 70; Non-conf. RPI: 121): The The Fighting Illini's resume has some good points (two wins at Wisconsin, comeback over Clemson, home wins over Michigan State and Vanderbilt) and some bad (home loss to Minnesota, neutral site losses to Bradley, Utah, semi-away loss to Georgia). They looked to be in, but their inability to close the deal against Ohio State Saturday, especially when compared to how Minnesota blew the doors off Purdue, was not helpful.
William & Mary (21-10; 12-6 CAA: RPI: 57; Non-conf. RPI: 12): Remember back in 2006, when the Committee stunned pretty much everyone by taking Air Force out of nowhere? Four years later, could the Tribe fill a similar role if enough teams fall by the wayside over the weekend? With road wins over Maryland and Wake Forest and a home win over Richmond, W&M has more quality wins than many teams on this list. However, three bad losses (at James Madison, Towson and UNC Wilmington) hurt their case, as does a late BracketBuster loss at Iona. From the eye test perspective, the fact the Tribe can be a little too reliant on perimeter shooting (see the closing moments of the CAA final) is another issue.
Things just got a bit more uncomfortable for Bubble Watch teams after the Pac-10 and Mountain West finals this evening.
Washington pushed the Pac-10 closer to two-bid status, as they defeated regular season champion California to claim the league's automatic bid. I say "closer" because I'm not totally convinced the Golden Bears are safe.
The Mountain West, meanwhile, looks like they'll have four bids for the first time ever, as San Diego State topped UNLV on their home floor, to take the tournament title.
The focus now shifts to Reno, Nevada, where WAC regular season champion Utah State will hope to claim that conference's tournament crown and limit that conference to one bid. The Aggies take on another set of Aggies, New Mexico State, at 10 p.m. ET.
From Berkeley to Gainesville, Utah State will have a whole new crop of fans for this evening.
Minnesota
UTEP
Virginia Tech
Florida
The Gators are the last team in at the moment, mostly because of their recent struggles. California, as I mentioned, isn't exactly a lock, as they sit just above this group.
Illinois
Mississippi State
William & Mary
Mississippi
While the Illini are at the top of this group, the Bulldogs are the only team in the group who controls their own destiny, as they face Kentucky for the SEC title tomorrow at 1 p.m. ET.
I'll be providing updates on the state of the bubble throughout the weekend. You can also follow me on Twitter, @BracketDobber.
If you're a fan of a Bubble Watch team like Florida, Illinois, Virginia Tech or UTEP, be prepared for a sleepless night and nerve-racking day Sunday. Results didn't quite go your way through the afternoon.
Minnesota absolutely hammered Purdue in their Big Ten semifinal, quite the contrast from Illinois' inability to close out their game with Ohio State, twice.
Mississippi State claimed their second straight win over an SEC East contender in as many days, handling Vanderbilt to move on to Sunday's tournament final.
Georgia Tech let N.C. State back into their ACC semifinal before prevailing.
And these events don't even include the Pac-10 final, where Washington leads Cal at the half, and the WAC final, which starts at 10 p.m. ET.
Even without those two games being in the books, there are still significant changes to the bubble picture.
Minnesota
Florida
Virginia Tech
Washington
UTEP is just above this group after their loss to Houston in the Conference USA final, while San Diego State is also safe, pending the outcome of the Mountain West final.
Illinois
Mississippi State
William & Mary
Mississippi
The Illini's failure to close out the Buckeyes could be fatal because of a head-to-head loss to Minnesota and three headscratching non-conference losses. The Bulldogs probably need to beat Kentucky tomorrow, in which case, they'd be safe as the owner of the SEC auto bid.
I'll be providing updates on the state of the bubble throughout the weekend. You can also follow me on Twitter, @BracketDobber.
Houston is our first official bid thief of the year (St. Mary's West Coast crown is arguable), as they came from behind to stun Conference USA regular season champion UTEP, 81-73, to claim that league's automatic bid.
Since the Cougars were nowhere close to an at-large threat, that means someone from my Saturday morning "Last Four In" group has to go. As Rhode Island was at-large No. 34 going into today's action, they drop out.
The Rams could make an appearance later in the day, depending on if they can top Temple in the Atlantic 10 semifinals, which are underway in Atlantic City.
Here's the updated look at the bubble, as of 1:42 p.m. ET.
Florida
San Diego State
Virginia Tech
Washington
Rhode Island
Minnesota
Mississippi State
William & Mary
I'll be providing updates on the state of the bubble throughout the day. You can also follow me on Twitter, @BracketDobber.
Here is the updated look at how the NCAA Tournament field stacks up heading into Saturday's conference tournament action. Five teams, including two from the Pac-10 can get themselves in with wins in the league finals today.
Click here for my Saturday bracket. For more on Saturday's games of importance, check my preview/recap post.
Click any team name that appears as a link to visit that school's SB Nation blog.
America East, Atlantic Sun (East Tennessee State), Big Sky (Montana), Big South (Winthrop), Big West, Colonial (Old Dominion), Horizon (Butler), Ivy (Cornell), Metro Atlantic (Siena), Mid-American, Mid-Eastern, Missouri Valley (Northern Iowa) Northeast (Robert Morris), Ohio Valley (Murray State), Patriot (Lehigh), Southern (Wofford), Southland, Southwestern, Summit (Oakland), Sun Belt (North Texas)
Conference USA: UTEP (Work To Do)
Pacific-10: California (Work To Do)
Western Athletic: Utah State (Work To Do)
ACC: Duke*, Maryland, Florida State, Clemson, Wake Forest
A-10: Temple*, Richmond, Xavier
Big East: Syracuse, West Virginia*, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame
Big Ten: Purdue*, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Big 12: Kansas*, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Missouri, Oklahoma State
MWC: New Mexico, BYU, UNLV*
SEC: Kentucky*, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
WCC: Gonzaga, St. Mary's*
Teams with an asterisk hold their respective conference's automatic bid at the moment.
ACC: Georgia Tech
Big East: Louisville
Big Ten: Illinois
C-USA: UTEP
Pac-10: California
SEC: Florida
WAC: Utah State
That takes care of 61 of the 65 teams. (No, I didn't miscount. Three "Not Quite Safe" clubs, Cal, UTEP and Utah State, appear twice.) That leaves me to look at the last four teams in the field and the eight who the best chance to replace them over the final two days.
RPI data from Crashing The Dance and reflects games through Friday, March 12. All records reflect games played against Division I opponents through Friday, March 12.
After Friday's action, Dayton and all four teams considered "On The Fringe" -- Cincinnati, Memphis, St. Louis and Wichita State are off they board.
San Diego State (22-8; 11-5 MWC; RPI: 25; Non-conf. RPI: 37):The Aztecs look to be in good shape after they defeated New Mexico in the Mountain West semifinals Friday night. That means the Aztecs are 3-5 against the RPI top 50, with two wins over the 11th-rated Lobos. They can grab a fourth, and end any bubble drama in the process, by knocking off No. 42 UNLV in Saturday's final.
Virginia Tech (23-8; 10-6 ACC; RPI: 55; Non-conf. RPI: 93): Florida would be here instead of the Hokies, had Virginia Tech managed to defeat Miami in their ACC quarterfinal on Friday. A 10-6 ACC record should be more than good enough, but the Hokies' abysmal non-conference schedule means they'll sweat. Virginia Tech owns a staggering nine wins over teams ranked below 200 in the RPI (plus one over Penn State, ranked 193rd), with three wins over teams below 300. Florida has seven (and three against 301+), but they have non-conference wins over Michigan State and Florida State. Virginia Tech's best non-conference win, Seton Hall, pales in comparison.
Washington (22-9; 11-7 Pac-10; RPI: 46; Non-conf. RPI: 22): The Huskies grabbed a win over Stanford in the Pac-10 semifinals on Friday, meaning they can book a place in the Tournament with a win over top seed (and likely at-large) California in Saturday's final. Washington owns home wins over Texas A&M and Cal. However, December losses at Texas Tech and against Georgetown in Anaheim are missed opportunities in a weak bubble year.
Rhode Island (23-8; 9-7 A-10; RPI: 38; Non-conf. RPI: 6): The Rams sneak in after they grabbed a win over St. Louis in the Atlantic 10 quarterfinals. Depending on results elsewhere, they could end up right back outside if they fall to Temple for the third time this season in Saturday's semifinals. The Rams' best league win is over now-eliminated Dayton, as they're 0-4 against Temple, Richmond and Xavier, the three A-10 teams who are in the best shape for bids. Rhode Island's marquee non-conference win came against Oklahoma State, and they own respectable victories over Northeastern, Providence and Boston College. However, none of those three are likely to dance. They get the edge over Minnesota because of fewer bad losses from an RPI perspective and a better road/neutral mark. However, if the Golden Gophers can beat Purdue in the Big Ten semis on Saturday, all bets are off.
First Four Out
Minnesota (20-12; 9-9 Big Ten; RPI: 68; Non-conf. RPI: 60): The Golden Gophers look to be making the needed run through the Big Ten Tournament, as a Friday win over Michigan State sets up a crucial semifinal game against Purdue. Remember that the Golden Gophers only lost by one to the Boilermakers at Williams Arena in a game marred by Robbie Hummel's knee injury. Minnesota is now 5-8 this season against the RPI Top 100, with two of those wins coming at The Barn, where they defeated Ohio State and Wisconsin. They also beat Illinois on the road and Butler and Michigan State on neutral courts. A 15-4 record against teams rated 101+ doesn't help the case, particularly the sweep at the hands of Michigan and a loss to Maurice Creek-less Indiana in Bloomington. A 6-9 road/neutral mark is also a negative, but Minnesota has a chance to improve upon that over this weekend.
Mississippi State (212-10; 9-7 SEC; RPI: 63; Non-conf. RPI: 71): The Bulldogs became the first SEC West team to beat one of the top four from the East when they defeated Florida Friday. They may need to grab two more wins to go dancing, however. Vanderbilt awaits in Saturday's semifinals, with Kentucky or Tennessee a potential final opponent. The Bulldogs' resume is a bit thin outside of their sweep of archrival (and fellow bubble team) Ole Miss, as a win over Old Dominion in South Padre is the non-conference highlight and losses at Western Kentucky and against Rider in Starkville are major blemishes.
William & Mary (21-10; 12-6 CAA: RPI: 56; Non-conf. RPI: 13): Remember back in 2006, when the Committee stunned pretty much everyone by taking Air Force out of nowhere? Four years later, could the Tribe fill a similar role if enough teams fall by the wayside over the weekend? With road wins over Maryland and Wake Forest and a home win over Richmond, W&M has more quality wins than many teams on this list. However, three bad losses (at James Madison, Towson and UNC Wilmington) hurt their case, as does a late BracketBuster loss at Iona. From the eye test perspective, the fact the Tribe can be a little too reliant on perimeter shooting (see the closing moments of the CAA final) is another issue.
Mississippi (21-10; 9-7 SEC; RPI: 57; Non-conf. RPI: 33): The Rebels’ hurt their chances with a loss to Tennessee in Friday's SEC quarterfinals. Ole Miss' marquee win is better than archrival Mississippi State's, as they defeated Kansas State by 12 in Puerto Rico before Thanksgiving. They also own a helpful win against UTEP on a semi-home court in the Memphis suburbs. Still, not managing to beat the Bulldogs once is an issue, considering that was the difference in the race for the weaker division of the SEC.
Arizona State (22-10; 12-6 Pac-10; RPI: 64; Non-conf. RPI: 55): The Sun Devils fell to seventh-seeded Stanford in the quarterfinals of the Pac-10 Tournament Thursday, all but ending their chances. ASU really needed to make the final to have a realistic shot. Currently, the only win the Sun Devils can hang their hat on is a home victory over San Diego State on December 19, their lone top 50 win on the season.
Seton Hall (19-12; 9-9 Big East; RPI: 59; Non-conf. RPI: 80): The Pirates' strong finish may be for naught after Wednesday's loss against Notre Dame. On Selection Sunday, Pirates fans will likely be rueing the string of four games at the end of 2009/start of 2010, where their team lost heartbreakers, including OT games against West Virginia and Virginia Tech. Those wins would have been major boosts to an OK resume, especially as the Pirates own a somewhat unlucky 3-8 mark against the RPI Top 50. The Pirates did finish strong, but two wins over Rutgers and another pair over Providence won't do much to convince the Committee. Unfortunately, a win over Notre Dame would have.
South Florida (20-12; Big East 9-9; RPI: 67; Non-conf. RPI: 70): The Bulls' hopes were dashed Wednesday when they couldn't grab a second win over Georgetown. However, USF's offensive performance (or lack thereof) in two games at Madison Square Garden was more damaging than the loss to the Hoyas was by itself. The Bulls didn't hit a single jump shot in their win over DePaul Tuesday and only hit one three (near the end) against Georgetown. The Bulls are now 3-5 vs. the RPI Top 50, and only 3-6 against teams rated between 51 and 100. While they own wins over Pitt, Georgetown and Seton Hall, a sweep at the hands of Notre Dame, and losses to St. John's, Central Michigan and South Carolina are serious blemishes.
UAB (23-8; 11-5 C-USA; RPI: 43; non-conf. RPI: 17): The Blazers were embarrassed by Southern Mississippi in the Conference USA quarterfinals Thursday, meaning they're finished. They had a good chance to make the final with Memphis' defeat at the hands of Houston earlier in the day. Early season home wins over lock Butler and fellow bubble team Cincinnati won't help much now. UAB does own a 11-5 road/neutral record, but that’s a bit deceptive, as four of the losses came against four of their best five road opponents — Kent State, Memphis, UTEP and Virginia — and the fifth was Thursday's setback.
With two days of action left before the bracket is revealed, the at-large picture is starting to clear up a little. Still, there are going to be many anxious Bubble Watch teams sweating it out. That includes one team who I had pegged as safe after Thursday's action.
If a team's name appears as a link, click it to visit that school's SB Nation blog for more coverage and analysis.
Georgia Tech leaves Bubble Watch after they held off Maryland, 69-64 (recap), to advance to the ACC semifinals. They'll face, 11th seed N.C. State, a team they beat by two at home on February 6. If they lose, they could be right back in this post tomorrow.
Several teams still have their fate in their own hands. Five Bubble Watch teams can end any drama and rest easy tonight by claiming their conference crowns this evening. Four can move on to Sunday championship games.
California, who should be in as an at-large knocked off UCLA, 85-72 (recap) in their Pac-10 semifinal. The Golden Bears will face "Last Four In" team Washington in Saturday's final (6 p.m. ET, CBS). The Huskies defeated Stanford, 79-64 (recap), to stay in the hunt. This will be the rubber match of the season series, as both won at home during the regular season.
San Diego State looks a bit safer now, even if I still have them as a "Last Four In" team after their 72-69 win over New Mexico (recap) in the Mountain West semifinals Friday. The Aztecs face host UNLV for the title Saturday (7 p.m. ET, Versus). If this was last year, Steve Fisher's team would probably feel better about their chances, as they went 3-0 against the Rebels, and grabbed two wins at Thomas & Mack. This season, the two split, with each defending their home court.
Conference USA should be a one-bid league as UTEP bounced host Tulsa, 75-61 (recap), in the semis. The problem for the Miners is that they must face Houston in Saturday's final (11:30 a.m., CBS). The Cougars were the only conference team to beat UTEP in the regular season, winning by seven at home. However, the Miners did beat Tom Penders' team at the Haskins Center.
Utah State defeated fourth-seeded Louisiana Tech, 85-55 (recap) to move on to the WAC Final. There they won't have to play two seed Nevada on their home floor. The Wolfpack fell to third-seeded New Mexico State, a team who split the season series with Utah State. The Logan Aggies won by 18 at home to close the regular season. The rubber match will be at 10 p.m. ET (ESPN2).
Illinois opened up a lead on Wisconsin and held on to grab a 58-54 Big Ten semifinal win (recap). That gives the Illini a season series win over the Badgers. Illinois will next try to beat Ohio State for the first time this season in the semifinals (1:30 p.m. ET, CBS).
Rhode Island completely burst St. Louis' bubble in Friday's Atlantic 10 quarterfinals, 63-47 (recap). The Rams next play top seed Temple (1 p.m. ET, CBS College Sports). The Owls won both regular season meetings, following up a four-point overtime win in Kingston with a 22-point triumph in Philadelphia.
Minnesota is very close to booking their ticket after they topped Michigan State in the Big Ten quarterfinals, 72-67 in overtime (recap). The Gophers really need to beat Purdue in today's semifinal though (4 p.m. ET, CBS). The Boilermakers won both meetings, but only won at Williams Arena by one on February 24, the night they lost Robbie Hummel for the season.
Mississippi State likely needs to win the SEC Tournament to make the field, even after they knocked off Florida in Friday's quarterfinals, 75-69 (recap). The Bulldogs became the first West Division team to beat one of the top four from the East with that victory. They'll need to repeat that feat twice to dance. Vanderbilt is up first in the semifinals (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS).
This next group of teams can only watch and wait, as their fate is out of their hands.
Louisville should be in even though they lost to Cincinnati in the Big East Second Round Wednesday.
Wake Forest should also hold on to a spot even though they were slammed by Miami in the ACC Opening Round Thursday.
Florida will have to sweat it out after their loss to Mississippi State Friday. The fact they came back to avoid a blowout against the Bulldogs helps.
So much for promoting Virginia Tech out of Bubble Watch. The Hokies drop back down after they fell to Miami, 70-65, in their ACC Quarterfinal Friday (recap).
Mississippi really needed to beat Tennessee in the SEC quarterfinals to have a chance, but they fell 76-65 (recap).
Keep an eye on William & Mary, even though they lost to Old Dominion in the Colonial Athletic Association final Monday. They have enough quality wins to make a solid case, but some headscratching losses may keep them out.
UAB is likely on the outside looking in after they failed to beat Southern Mississippi in the Conference USA Quarterfinals Thursday.
Arizona State looks to be out of the running after they lost their Pac-10 Quarterfinal to Stanford.
Seton Hall and South Florida are both likely finished after they lost Big East Second Round games Wednesday.
Charlotte is off the board after they lost to Massachusetts at home in the Atlantic 10 Opening Round Tuesday.
Cincinnati had a chance to win at the end of regulation, but Dion Dixon couldn't hold on to the ball and Da'Sean Butler banked in a three when time expired to give West Virginia a 54-51 win in the Big East Quarterfinals Thursday, bursting the Bearcats bubble.
Dayton once again couldn't close out a close game, as they fell to Xavier, 78-73 (recap), in the Atlantic 10 quarterfinals Friday. That was a fatal loss for the Flyers.
Memphis, like UAB, is finished, as they lost their Conference USA Quarterfinal against Houston.
Wichita State lost their chance when they fell to Northern Iowa in the Missouri Valley final Sunday..
Here is the updated look at how the NCAA Tournament field stacks up heading into Friday's conference tournament action. Click here for my Friday bracket. For more on Friday's games of importance, check my preview/recap post.
Click any team name that appears as a link to visit that school's SB Nation blog.
America East, Atlantic Sun (East Tennessee State), Big Sky (Montana), Big South (Winthrop), Big West, Colonial (Old Dominion), Horizon (Butler), Ivy (Cornell), Metro Atlantic (Siena), Mid-American, Mid-Eastern, Missouri Valley (Northern Iowa) Northeast (Robert Morris), Ohio Valley (Murray State), Patriot, Southern (Wofford), Southland, Southwestern, Summit (Oakland), Sun Belt (North Texas)
Conference USA: UTEP (Work To Do)
Pacific-10: California (Work To Do)
Western Athletic: Utah State (Work To Do)
ACC: Duke*, Maryland, Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
A-10: Temple*, Richmond, Xavier
Big East: Syracuse, West Virginia*, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Louisville
Big Ten: Purdue*, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Big 12: Kansas*, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Missouri, Oklahoma State
MWC: New Mexico*, BYU, UNLV
SEC: Kentucky*, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
WCC: Gonzaga, St. Mary's*
Teams with an asterisk hold their respective conference's automatic bid at the moment.
ACC: Georgia Tech
C-USA: UTEP
Pac-10: California
SEC: Florida
WAC: Utah State
That takes care of 61 of the 65 teams. (No, I didn't miscount. "Work To Do" clubs Cal, UTEP and Utah State appear twice.) That leaves me to look at the last four teams in the field and the 11 who have varying chances at replacing them over the next three days.
RPI data from Crashing The Dance and reflects games through Wednesday, March 10. All records reflect games played against Division I opponents through Thursday, March 11.
Illinois (17-13; 10-8 Big Ten; RPI: 70; Non-conf. RPI: 119): The The Fighting Illini's resume has some good points (win at Wisconsin, comeback over Clemson, home wins over Michigan State and Vanderbilt) and some bad (home loss to Minnesota, neutral site losses to Bradley, Utah, semi-away loss to Georgia). They'd likely be in, but they've dropped three in a row, which isn't the way to head into the Big Ten Tournament. Making matters worse, they play Wisconsin, who they lost to at home on Sunday, in the quarterfinals Friday. The Illini did beat the Badgers in Madison, but Wisconsin was without Jon Leuer for that one.
Mississippi (21-9; 9-7 SEC; RPI: 57; Non-conf. RPI: 34): While Mississippi State is fading, Ole Miss is winning late, as they closed the regular season with four straight wins, capped by a close victory over Arkansas in Fayetteville on Saturday. The Rebels’ marquee win is better than archrivals', as they defeated Kansas State by 12 in Puerto Rico before Thanksgiving. Still, not managing to beat the Bulldogs once is an issue, considering that was the difference in the race for the weaker division of the SEC. For now, the Rebels hold a place, but the SEC Tournament will ultimately determine their fate. As the two seed out of the West, Ole Miss will face Tennessee in Friday's quarterfinals.
Washington (20-9; 10-7 Pac-10; RPI: 50; Non-conf. RPI: 27): It wasn't easy but the Huskies were able to advance to the Pac-10 semis, as they needed to mount a comeback to beat Oregon State Thursday, Unfortunately, since Arizona State was eliminated in the game before, Washington will have to hope they can meet Cal in the final for one last shot at a quality win. Washington owns home wins over Texas A&M and Cal. However, December losses at Texas Tech and against Georgetown in Anaheim are missed opportunities in a weak bubble year.
San Diego State (21-8; 11-5 MWC; RPI: 35; Non-conf. RPI: 35):The Aztecs are barely holding on, as they slipped past Colorado State in the Mountain West quarterfinals. That sets up a game with New Mexico in Friday's semifinals, which is a somewhat favorable matchup. At one point, SDSU was four points away from owning a 10-game win streak, as they lost to BYU by 2 at home and dropped a 2-point OT game at New Mexico. The Aztecs will wish they had those two games back, as they currently sit at 2-5 against the RPI Top 50 (both wins, over New Mexico and UNLV, came at home). Beating the Lobos Friday would be very helpful.
First Four Out
Rhode Island (22-8; 9-7 A-10; RPI: 41; Non-conf. RPI: 6): After Saturday's loss to UMass, the Rams are probably headed to the NIT, but they can change that with a run through the A-10 Tournament, which they started with a win over St. Joseph's on Tuesday night. That set up a quarterfinal with St. Louis (who beat the Rams at Chaifetz Arena) for Friday. Rhody's marquee non-conference win came against Oklahoma State, and they own respectable victories over Northeastern, Providence and Boston College. However, none of those three are likely to dance. Making matters worse is the fact the Rams' best league win is over Dayton, as they're 0-4 against Temple, Richmond and Xavier, the three A-10 teams who are in the best shape.
Dayton (20-11; 8-8 A-10; RPI: 48; Non-conf. RPI: 14): Like the Rams, the Flyers will need to make a run in Atlantic City to go dancing after Saturday's home loss to St. Louis. Their road/neutral record stands at 5-9 after Thursday night's setback at Richmond, a game the Flyers were in control of until the last 10 minutes. The Flyers' the best win came against Georgia Tech in Puerto Rico way back on November 19 and the best true road victory came against George Mason on December 8. The Flyers are the seventh-seeded team in the A-10 Tournament, and they'll face second-seeded Xavier in Atlantic City Friday, as they knocked off George Washington in the opening round on Tuesday.
Mississippi State (21-10; 9-7 SEC; RPI: 67; Non-conf. RPI: 72): The wheels came off for the Bulldogs at the wrong time, as they finished the regular season with back-to-back losses to Auburn (inexcusable) and Tennessee (forgivable, but not in the manner in which MSU fell). The Bulldogs' resume is a bit thin outside of their sweep of archrival (and fellow bubble team) Ole Miss, as a win over Old Dominion in South Padre is the non-conference highlight and losses at Western Kentucky and against Rider in Starkville are major blemishes. As the top seed in the West, the Bulldogs have a bye to the quarterfinals at the SEC Tournament. They'll meet Florida on Friday in Nashville.
William & Mary (21-10; 12-6 CAA: RPI: 58; Non-conf. RPI: 12): Remember back in 2006, when the Committee stunned pretty much everyone by taking Air Force out of nowhere? Four years later, could the Tribe fill a similar role if enough teams fall by the wayside over the weekend? With road wins over Maryland and Wake Forest and a home win over Richmond, W&M has more quality wins than many teams on this list. However, three bad losses (at James Madison, Towson and UNC Wilmington) hurt their case, as does a late BracketBuster loss at Iona. From the eye test perspective, the fact the Tribe can be a little too reliant on perimeter shooting (see the closing moments of the CAA final) is another issue.
Arizona State (22-10; 12-6 Pac-10; RPI: 55; Non-conf. RPI: 55): The Sun Devils fell to seventh-seeded Stanford in the quarterfinals of the Pac-10 Tournament Thursday, all but ending their chances. ASU really needed to make the final to have a realistic shot. Currently, the only win the Sun Devils can hang their hat on is a home victory over San Diego State on December 19, their lone top 50 win on the season.
Seton Hall (19-12; 9-9 Big East; RPI: 59; Non-conf. RPI: 77): The Pirates' strong finish may be for naught after Wednesday's loss against Notre Dame. On Selection Sunday, Pirates fans will likely be rueing the string of four games at the end of 2009/start of 2010, where their team lost heartbreakers, including OT games against West Virginia and Virginia Tech. Those wins would have been major boosts to an OK resume, especially as the Pirates own a somewhat unlucky 3-8 mark against the RPI Top 50. The Pirates did finish strong, but two wins over Rutgers and another pair over Providence won't do much to convince the Committee. Unfortunately, a win over Notre Dame would have.
South Florida (20-12; Big East 9-9; RPI: 64; Non-conf. RPI: 69): The Bulls' hopes were dashed Wednesday when they couldn't grab a second win over Georgetown. However, USF's offensive performance (or lack thereof) in two games at Madison Square Garden was more damaging than the loss to the Hoyas was by itself. The Bulls didn't hit a single jump shot in their win over DePaul Tuesday and only hit one three (near the end) against Georgetown. The Bulls are now 3-5 vs. the RPI Top 50, and only 3-6 against teams rated between 51 and 100. While they own wins over Pitt, Georgetown and Seton Hall, a sweep at the hands of Notre Dame, and losses to St. John's, Central Michigan and South Carolina are serious blemishes.
UAB (23-8; 11-5 C-USA; RPI: 40; non-conf. RPI: 17): The Blazers were embarrassed by Southern Mississippi in the Conference USA quarterfinals Thursday, meaning they're finished. They had a good chance to make the final with Memphis' defeat at the hands of Houston earlier. Early season home wins over lock Butler and fellow bubble team Cincinnati won't help much now. UAB does own a 11-5 road/neutral record, but that’s a bit deceptive, as four of the losses came against four of their best five road opponents — Kent State, Memphis, UTEP and Virginia — and the fifth was Thursday's setback.
Cincinnati (18-15; 7-11 Big East; RPI: 60; Non-conf. RPI: 38): The Bearcats had some life after they knocked out Louisville Wednesday to advance to the Big East quarterfinals on Thursday, but the NIT looks like their destination after they fell to West Virginia on a Da'Sean Butler buzzer beater. The victory over the Cardinals was the first Mick Cronin's team won a game against an opponent who's a lock or near lock since a pair of wins Vanderbilt and Maryland in Maui. A win over the Mountaineers would have been a major boost to their resume.
Memphis (23-9; 13-3 C-USA; RPI: 46: Non-conf. RPI: 91): The Tigers lost a close one to Houston in the Conference USA quarterfinals, ending their chances at an at-large. Memphis owns a 7-5 mark against the RPI Top 100; however, only two of those wins came against a Top 50 opponent, and that was sweep of now out of the picture UAB. Memphis' two best non-league wins came against IUPUI and Oakland. A 7-6 road/neutral mark is OK, but the best of those wins (after the win at UAB) came against Marshall and Tulsa. Josh Pastner's club fattened up on Division I's worst teams, going 15-2 against teams ranked 151+ in the RPI, losing at UMass and SMU.
Minnesota (19-12; 9-9 Big Ten; RPI: 76; Non-conf. RPI: 60): A late defeat at Michigan cost the Gophers a shot at a bye in the Big Ten Tournament. Not that they needed it, as Minnesota smashed Penn State in the first round Thursday to set up a quarterfinal with Michigan State, a team they lost two close games to during the regular season. The Golden Gophers are 5-9 this season against the RPI Top 100. Three of those wins came at The Barn, where they defeated Ohio State, Wisconsin and now-out of the picture Northwestern. Minnesota's nine-point triumph over Butler in Anaheim is useful, but the losses to Portland and Texas A&M that followed aren't. Neither was the road loss at Miami days after the California trip. Losses to Indiana (in Bloomington) and the Michigan sweep sting as well. They need to keep winning in Indianapolis to have a shot.
St. Louis (19-10; 11-5 A-10; RPI: 84; Non-conf. RPI: 201): There are two reasons why the Billikens aren't closer to the field: their 5-7 road/neutral record, and the fact their best non-conference win came against Big 12 bottom feeder Nebraska. Still, SLU grabbed the four seed, and a bye, for the A-10 Tournament after Saturday's win at Dayton. They'll face fellow bubble team Rhode Island in Atlantic City on Friday.
Wichita State (23-9; 10-2 MWC; RPI: 45; Non-conf. RPI: 87): The Shockers couldn't take themselves off the bubble aas they fell to Northern Iowa in Sunday's MVC championship game. The Shockers best two wins, over the Panthers and Texas Tech, came at home. Like UNI, Wichita State also lost to Evansville and Bradley in the league, but the Shockers also fell to Drake and Creighton once. All four of those losses came on the road, meaning WSU has a mediocre 7-8 road/neutral mark.
Since conference tournament action is moving fast and furious, I want to take this opportunity to point out where the Bubble Watch teams currently stand in terms of game action from here on out.
Marquette beat Villanova, 80-76 (recap), in the Big East Quarterfinals Thursday. They'll play Georgetown in Friday's semifinals, but the Golden Eagles are in good shape if they lose.
Notre Dame also got a win Thursday, as they topped Pittsburgh, 50-45 (recap). The Fighting Irish will face a West Virginia team who's playing for a top seed.
Oklahoma State followed up their win over Oklahoma Wednesday with an 83-64 loss to second-seeded Kansas State Thursday (recap).
Virginia Tech, idle on Thursday, plays Miami in the ACC Quarterfinals Friday. The four seed in the ACC is in better shape thanks to the carnage below them on the S-curve.
UAB is likely on the outside looking in after they failed to beat Southern Mississippi, 58-44 (recap), in the Conference USA Quarterfinals Thursday.
Arizona State looks to be out of the running after they lost their Pac-10 Quarterfinal to Stanford, 70-61 (recap).
Charlotte is off the board after they lost to Massachusetts at home in the Atlantic 10 Opening Round Tuesday.
Cincinnati had a chance to win at the end of regulation, but Dion Dixon couldn't hold on to the ball and Da'Sean Butler banked in a three when time expired to give West Virginia a 54-51 win (recap) and burst the Bearcats bubble.
Louisville is in good shape even though they lost to Cincinnati in the Big East Second Round Wednesday.
Memphis, like UAB, is finished, as they lost their Conference USA Quarterfinal against Houston, 66-65 (recap).
Seton Hall and South Florida are both likely finished after they lost Big East Second Round games Wednesday.
On the other hand, Wake Forest should hold on to a spot even though they were slammed by Miami by an 83 to 62 (recap) score in the ACC Opening Round Thursday.
Wichita State lost their chance when they fell to Northern Iowa in the Missouri Valley final Sunday.
Keep an eye on William & Mary, even though they lost to Old Dominion in the Colonial Athletic Association final Monday. They have enough quality wins to make a solid case, but some headscratching losses may keep them out.
Now that I've looked at the teams who won't make another appearance in one of these recap/preview posts, here are the teams who will be in action Friday.
Just Above The Last Four In
California cruised past Oregon, 90-74 (recap), in the Pac-10 Quarterfinals on Thursday. The Golden Bears face UCLA in Friday's semifinals at 9 p.m. ET (FSN/Comcast SportsNet). Cal and UCLA split their season series, with each winning on the road.
Florida held off Auburn in the SEC Opening Round Thursday, 78-69 (recap). The Gators will next face "Next Four Out" team Mississippi State in Friday's Quarterfinals at 7:30 p.m. ET (SEC Network/Full Court). Florida beat Miss. State by seven in Gainesville.
Georgia Tech defeated North Carolina, 62-58 (recap), in the ACC Opening Round Thursday. The Yellow Jackets will face Maryland Friday at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2 or Raycom). The Yellow Jackets lost to the Terps on a buzzer beater in College Park.
UTEP easily won their Conference USA quarterfinal against UCF, 76-54 (recap). The Miner will face host Tulsa in the semifinals Friday at 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS College Sports). UTEP swept the Golden Hurricane during the regular season.
Last Four In
Illinois plays Wisconsin in the Big Ten Quarterfinals Friday at 2:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). The two teams split their regular season meetings. The Fighting Illini won in Madison when Jon Leuer was out for the Badgers.
Mississippi faces Tennessee in the SEC Quarterfinals at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday (SEC Network/Full Court). The Rebels lost a two-point overtime decision to the Volunteers in Knoxville during the regular season.
Washington came back to beat Oregon State, 59-52 (recap), late Thursday. They'll next play Stanford in the 11:30 p.m. ET semifinal (FSN/Comcast SportsNet) Friday. The Huskies handled the Cardinal twice during the regular season, but not facing the Sun Devils in the semifinal deprives them of a potential quality win.
San Diego State slipped past Colorado State, 72-71 (recap), in Thursday's Mountain West Quarters. The Aztecs will play top-seeded New Mexico in Friday's semifinals at 9 p.m. ET (CBS College Sports). This is a good matchup for San Diego State, as they beat the Lobos at home and lost by two in overtime at The Pit.
First Four Out
Rhode Island takes on St. Louis in the Atlantic 10 Quarterfinals Friday at 2:30 p.m. ET (check local listings). The Billikens beat the Rams by five at home on February 17.
Dayton faces archrival Xavier in the A-10 Quarters Friday at 6:30 p.m. ET (check local listings). The Flyers lost by four in Cincinnati, but defeated the Musketeers by 25 at home.
On The Fringe
Minnesota blew out Penn State, 76-55 (recap), in the Big Ten Opening Round Thursday. The Golden Gophers will meet Michigan State in the final quarterfinal on Friday at 9 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network). The Spartans won two meetings in the span of 10 days, winning by seven at the Breslin Center and by a single point at Williams Arena.
Here is the updated look at how the NCAA Tournament field stacks up heading into a busy Thursday of conference tournament action. Click here for my Thursday bracket. For more on Thursday's games of importance, check my preview post.
Click any team name that appears as a link to visit that school's SB Nation blog.
America East, Atlantic Sun (East Tennessee State), Big Sky (Montana), Big South (Winthrop), Big West, Colonial (Old Dominion), Horizon (Butler), Ivy (Cornell), Metro Atlantic (Siena), Mid-American, Mid-Eastern, Missouri Valley (Northern Iowa) Northeast (Robert Morris), Ohio Valley (Murray State), Patriot, Southern (Wofford), Southland, Southwestern, Summit (Oakland), Sun Belt (North Texas)
Conference USA: UTEP (Work To Do)
Pacific-10: California (Work To Do)
Western Athletic: Utah State (Work To Do)
ACC: Duke*, Maryland, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Wake Forest
A-10: Temple*, Xavier, Richmond
Big East: Syracuse*, West Virginia, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Louisville
Big Ten: Purdue*, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Big 12: Kansas*, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Missouri, Texas
MWC: New Mexico*, BYU, UNLV
SEC: Kentucky*, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
WCC: Gonzaga, St. Mary's*
Teams with an asterisk hold their respective conference's automatic bid at the moment.
ACC: Georgia Tech,
Big East: Notre Dame, Marquette
C-USA: UTEP
Pac-10: California
SEC: Florida
WAC: Utah State
Of this group, Florida, Georgia Tech and Utah State hold the most precarious positions. These three teams could find themselves among either the Last Four In or First Four Out as the clock ticks down .
That takes care of 61 of the 65 teams. (No, "Work To Do" clubs Cal, UTEP and Utah State appear twice.) That leaves me to look at the last four teams in the field and the 11 who have varying chances at replacing them over the next four days.
RPI data from Crashing The Dance and reflects games through Tuesday, March 9. All records reflect games played against Division I opponents through Wednesday, March 10.
Illinois (17-13; 10-8 Big Ten; RPI: 71; Non-conf. RPI: 117): The The Fighting Illini's resume has some good points (win at Wisconsin, comeback over Clemson, home wins over Michigan State and Vanderbilt) and some bad (home loss to Minnesota, neutral site losses to Bradley, Utah, semi-away loss to Georgia). They'd likely be in, but they've dropped three in a row, which isn't the way to head into the Big Ten Tournament. Making matters worse, they play Wisconsin, who they lost to at home on Sunday, in the quarterfinals Friday.
Mississippi (21-9; 9-7 SEC; RPI: 56; Non-conf. RPI: 35): While Miss. State is fading, Ole Miss is winning late, as they closed the regular season with four straight wins, capped by a close victory over Arkansas in Fayetteville on Saturday. The Rebels’ marquee win is better than archrivals' Mississippi State's, as they defeated Kansas State by 12 in Puerto Rico before Thanksgiving. Still, not managing to beat the Bulldogs once is an issue, considering that’s the difference in the race for the weaker division of the SEC. For now, the Rebels hold a place, but the SEC Tournament will ultimately determine their fate. As the two seed out of the West, Ole Miss will face either Tennessee or LSU in Friday's quarterfinals.
Arizona State (22-9; 12-6 Pac-10; RPI: 55; Non-conf. RPI: 57): The Sun Devils swept past the L.A. schools to lock up the second seed in this week's Pac-10 Tournament. Thanks to what else has gone on around the country, they may only need to make the final to get in, which speaks volumes about the quality of this season's bubble. Currently, the only win the Sun Devils can hang their hat on is a home victory over San Diego State on December 19, their lone top 50 win in six tries. ASU begins Pac-10 Tournament play against seventh-seeded Stanford on Thursday.
San Diego State (20-8; 11-5 MWC; RPI: 36; Non-conf. RPI: 36):The Aztecs won their home finale Wednesday night over Colorado State, then followed that victory up with a win at Air Force Saturday. At one point, SDSU was four points away from owning a 10-game win streak, as they lost to BYU by 2 at home and dropped a 2-point OT game at New Mexico. The Aztecs will wish they had those two games back, as they currently sit at 2-5 against the RPI Top 50 (both wins, over New Mexico and UNLV, came at home). The fourth-seeded Aztecs open the Mountain West Tournament with a game against fifth-seeded Colorado State Thursday. Top seeded New Mexico may await in the semifinals on Friday.
First Four Out
Rhode Island (22-8; 9-7 A-10; RPI: 42; Non-conf. RPI: 5): After Saturday's loss to UMass, the Rams are probably headed to the NIT, but they can change that with a run through the A-10 Tournament, which they started with a win over St. Joseph's on Tuesday night. That set up a quarterfinal with St. Louis (who beat the Rams at Chaifetz Arena) for Friday. Rhody's marquee non-conference win came against Oklahoma State, and they own respectable victories over Northeastern, Providence and Boston College. However, none of those three are likely to dance. Making matters worse is the fact the Rams' best league win is over Dayton, as they're 0-4 against Temple, Richmond and Xavier, the three A-10 teams who are in the best shape.
Washington (20-9; 10-7 Pac-10; RPI: 53; Non-conf. RPI: 27): Much like the Sun Devils, the Huskies have some life, as they own home wins over Texas A&M and Cal. However, December losses at Texas Tech and against Georgetown in Anaheim are missed opportunities in a weak bubble year. Washington swept the Oregon schools to finish the regular season strong and lock up the third seed in the Pac-10 Tournament. They'll face sixth-seeded Oregon State again in the quarterfinals on Thursday. If both ASU and UW make the semifinal, that game could be for a bid.
Dayton (20-11; 8-8 A-10; RPI: 48; Non-conf. RPI: 14): Like the Rams, the Flyers will need to make a run in Atlantic City to go dancing after Saturday's home loss to St. Louis. Their road/neutral record stands at 5-9 after Thursday night's setback at Richmond, a game the Flyers were in control of until the last 10 minutes. The Flyers' the best win came against Georgia Tech in Puerto Rico way back on November 19 and the best true road victory came against George Mason on December 8. The Flyers are the seventh-seeded team in the A-10 Tournament, and they'll face second-seeded Xavier in Atlantic City Friday, as they knocked off George Washington in the opening round on Tuesday.
UAB (23-7; 11-5 C-USA; RPI: 40; non-conf. RPI: 17): The Blazers looked like they were going to grab a valuable road win at Conference USA regular season champ UTEP Saturday, but they let the Miners off the hook. They can no longer rely on their early season home wins over lock Butler and fellow bubble team Cincinnati. UAB owns a 11-4 road/neutral record, but that’s a bit deceptive, as the losses came against four of their best five road opponents — Kent State, Memphis, UTEP and Virginia. The Blazers slipped down to the three seed for the conference tournament in Tulsa. They'll meet Southern Miss in the quarterfinal Thursday. The bad news for UAB is that they're on Memphis' side of the bracket, and the Tigers won both regular season meetings.
Memphis (23-8; 13-3 C-USA; RPI: 46: Non-conf. RPI: 90): The Tigers do own a 7-5 mark against the RPI Top 100; however, only two of those wins came against a Top 50 opponent, the sweep over UAB. Memphis' two best non-league wins came against IUPUI and Oakland. A 7-5 road/neutral mark is OK, but the best of those wins (after the win at UAB) came against Marshall and Tulsa. Josh Pastner's club fattened up on Division I's worst teams, going 15-2 against teams ranked 151+ in the RPI, losing at UMass and SMU. The Tigers are the two seed in the C-USA Tournament, meaning they'll face Houston in the quarterfinals Thursday. I still think they need to win the auto bid to dance, but at this point, a trip to the final may be enough.
Mississippi State (21-10; 9-7 SEC; RPI: 58; Non-conf. RPI: 74): The wheels came off for the Bulldogs at the wrong time, as they finished the regular season with back-to-back losses to Auburn (inexcusable) and Tennessee (forgivable, but not in the manner in which MSU fell). The Bulldogs' resume is a bit thin outside of their sweep of archrival (and fellow bubble team) Ole Miss, as a win over Old Dominion in South Padre is the non-conference highlight and losses at Western Kentucky and against Rider in Starkville are major blemishes. As the top seed in the West, the Bulldogs have a bye to the quarterfinals at the SEC Tournament. They'll meet the Florida-Auburn winner on Friday in Nashville.
South Florida (20-12; Big East 9-9; RPI: 63; Non-conf. RPI: 68): The Bulls' hopes were dashed Wednesday when they couldn't grab a second win over Georgetown. However, USF's offensive performance (or lack thereof) in two games at Madison Square Garden was more damaging than the loss itself. The Bulls didn't hit a single jump shot in their win over DePaul Tuesday and only hit one three (near the end) against the Hoyas. The Bulls are now 3-5 vs. the RPI Top 50, and only 3-6 against teams rated between 51 and 100. While they own wins over Pitt, Georgetown and Seton Hall, a sweep at the hands of Notre Dame, and losses to St. John's, Central Michigan and South Carolina are serious blemishes.
Seton Hall (19-12; 9-9 Big East; RPI: 54; Non-conf. RPI: 78): The Pirates' strong finish may be for naught after Wednesday's loss against Notre Dame. On Selection Sunday, Pirates fans will likely be rueing the string of four games at the end of 2009/start of 2010, where their team lost heartbreakers, including OT games against West Virginia and Virginia Tech. Those wins would have been major boosts to an OK resume, especially as the Pirates own a somewhat unlucky 3-8 mark against the RPI Top 50. The Pirates did finish strong, but two wins over Rutgers and another pair over Providence won't do much to convince the Committee. Unfortunately, a win over Notre Dame would have.
Cincinnati (18-14; 7-11 Big East; RPI: 64; Non-conf. RPI: 38): The Bearcats have some life after they knocked out Louisville Wednesday to advance to the Big East quarterfinals on Thursday against West Virginia. The victory over the Cardinals was the first Mick Cronin's team won a game against an opponent who's a lock or near lock since a pair of wins Vanderbilt and Maryland in Maui. A win over the Mountaineers may just catapult them into the field.
Minnesota (18-12; 9-9 Big Ten; RPI: 78; Non-conf. RPI: 60): After grabbing a win at Illinois last Saturday, the Golden Gophers made a huge jump. Tuesday night, they gave it all back with an abysmal performance at Michigan, where they lost by 28. The defeat was costly as it cost the Gophers a shot at a bye in the Big Ten Tournament. The Golden Gophers are 5-9 this season against the RPI Top 100. Three of those wins came at The Barn, where they defeated Ohio State, Wisconsin and now-out of the picture Northwestern. Minnesota's nine-point triumph over Butler in Anaheim is useful, but the losses to Portland and Texas A&M that followed aren't. Neither was the road loss at Miami days after the California trip. Losses to Indiana (in Bloomington) the Michigan sweep sting. Minnesota beat Iowa on Sunday to close the regular season, but they'll need to make a run in Indianapolis. The Gophers open with Penn State on Thursday, with Michigan State awaiting in the quarterfinals if they win.
St. Louis (19-10; 11-5 A-10; RPI: 84; Non-conf. RPI: 198): There are two reasons why the Billikens aren't closer to the field: their 5-7 road/neutral record, and the fact their best non-conference win came against Big 12 bottom feeder Nebraska. Still, SLU grabbed the four seed, and a bye, for the A-10 Tournament after Saturday's win at Dayton. They'll face Rhode Island in Atlantic City on Friday.
Wichita State (23-9; 10-2; RPI: 45; non-conf. RPI: 87): The Shockers couldn't take themselves off the bubble aas they fell to Northern Iowa in Sunday's MVC championship game. The Shockers best two wins, over the Panthers and Texas Tech, came at home. Like UNI, Wichita State also lost to Evansville and Bradley in the league, but the Shockers also fell to Drake and Creighton once. All four of those losses came on the road, meaning WSU has a mediocre 7-8 road/neutral mark.
After Wednesday's action at the Big East and Big 12 Tournaments, Bubble Watch teams Marquette, Notre Dame and Oklahoma State are in better position. However, Seton Hall and USF's bubbles burst.
For more, check out the Big East Tournament Storystream
Georgetown 69, USF 49 (recap): The Bulls couldn't gain a second win over the Hoyas this season. Making matters worse, they struggled on offense in their two games in New York, hitting only one three-pointer in two games.
Marquette 57, St. John's 55 (recap): The Golden Eagles had to hold off the Red Storm, but they look to be in good shape after avoiding a potentially damaging loss.
Notre Dame 68, Seton Hall 56 (recap): Much like the Bulls, the Pirates couldn't grab a second win for the season over today's opponent. As the Pirates were just in the field, they needed this victory.
Cincinnati 69, Louisville 66 (recap): The Bearcats came back to top the Cardinals, grabbing their first win over a team that's a lock or near lock since before Thanksgiving.
Villanova vs. Marquette, 2:30 p.m. ET (ESPN): A win here would help the Golden Eagles' seeding. Remember, the Wildcats won two close meetings in the span of a week early in the conference season.
Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN): Again, the Fighting Irish are now playing for seeding after grabbing a win against the Pirates.
Cincinnati vs. West Virginia, 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN): The Bearcats would be back in the thick of the race for a bid with a win over the Mountaineers.
The Big 12 Tournament tipped off in Kansas City on Wednesday, and while Oklahoma State and Texas won opening round games to feel more secure, Missouri fell to Nebraska, the 12 seed.
Read more at our Big 12 Tournament Storystream.
Nebraska 75, Missouri 60 (recap): The Tigers lost for the third time in four outings, and the win was a two-point triumph at Iowa State in overtime. Mizzou is OK bid-wise, but their seeding has taken a hit this week.
Oklahoma State 81, Oklahoma 67 (recap): The Cowboys were in good shape before this one, but grabbing the rubber match of the Bedlam series doesn't hurt their case. Their out of the Bubble Watch picture the rest of the way.
Texas 82, Iowa State 75 (recap): It wasn't easy, but the Longhorns moved on to the quarterfinals, where they'll meet third-seeded Baylor.
Texas vs. Baylor, 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2): It's hard to believe that the Longhorns have already lost twice to the Bears this season.
Most of the Bubble Watch teams from the Big Ten, Conference USA, Mountain West, Pac-10 and SEC will be in action Wednesday. Plus, pay attention to the WAC, where regular season Utah State has a shot at an at-large bid if they don't win the conference tournament in Reno.
As the fifth-seed, Illinois will play Friday in the quarterfinals. That means Minnesota is the only Big Ten team in the hunt who has to play in the opening round tripleheader.
Be sure to check out the Big Ten Tournament Storystream for more.
Minnesota vs. Penn State, 7:30 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network): The Golden Gophers swept the Nittany Lions, but it was close both times, as they won by five at home and two in State College. Penn State has been playing much better of late, as they scared both Michigan State and Purdue to close the regular season.
In Tulsa, three of the four top seeds who begin tournament play Thursday have at-large hopes. (Sorry, Marshall.)
Memphis vs. Houston, 1 p.m. ET (CBS College Sports): I still think that the Tigers need to at least get to the final to have any hope of stealing a bid. A matchup with UAB (who the Tigers swept) in the semifinals looms, if Memphis can top Houston. The two teams split during the regular season, with each team getting a home win.
UAB vs. Southern Mississippi, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS College Sports): The Golden Eagles are a potential landmine for the Blazers. Larry Eustachy's team lost to UAB twice, but UAB only won by one at home and five in Hattiesburg.
UTEP vs. UCF, 9:30 p.m. ET (CBS College Sports): The Miners would naturally love to claim both the regular season and conference tournament crowns. They'll be in good shape for a bid as long as they don't fall to the ninth-seeded Golden Knights.
New Mexico, BYU and UNLV, the top three seeds, are in good shape for Selection Sunday. The real question is whether fourth-seeded San Diego State can join them.
Follow along at our Mountain West Tournament Storystream.
San Diego State vs. Colorado State, 5:30 p.m. ET (CBS College Sports/the mtn.): If the Aztecs can beat the Rams for the third time this season, they'll play a crucial semifinal game, most likely against New Mexico, Friday evening.
Arizona's game with UCLA, which in most seasons would be a championship-worthy matchup, is the only Pac-10 quarterfinal that doesn't have bubble implications.
Visit our Pac-10 Tournament Storystream.
California vs. Oregon/Washington State, 5:30 p.m. ET (FSN/Comcast SportsNet): Of the three Pac-10 contenders, the Golden Bears are in the best position for an at-large should they fail to grab the automatic bid. Of course, if they lose this one, all bets are off.
Arizona State vs. Stanford, 9 p.m. ET (FSN/Comcast SportsNet): The Sun Devils beat the Cardinal twice during the regular season. If they can do it a third time, they could find themselves in an elimination game against Washington tomorrow.
Washington vs. Oregon State, 11:30 p.m. ET (FSN/Comcast SportsNet): The Huskies beat the Beavers twice, so Washington will look for a third win, and the opportunity to fight another day.
Thanks to the SEC's divisional imbalance, the two of the three conference teams in the most bubble trouble, Mississippi and Mississippi State, received byes to Friday's quarterfinals.
Read more at our SEC Tournament Storystream
Florida vs. Auburn, 7:30 p.m. ET (SEC Network/Full Court): The Gators absolutely cannot lose this one. With a victory, a game with Mississippi State would await on Friday.
Utah State, the regular season champion, is a legit at-large candidate. And they may need to back in to the field, as the conference tournament takes place in Reno, on the homecourt of two seed Nevada.
Check out our WAC Tournament Storystream.
Utah State vs. Boise State, 3 p.m. ET (ESPNU): The Aggies probably need to reach the final to lock up a bid. They begin their quest against the Broncos. Utah State pounded Boise State in Logan, but only won by five in Boise on February 11.
Here is the updated look at the teams fighting for the last few spots in the NCAA field. Click here for my Wednesday bracket projection.
Thanks to Butler's win the Horizon League final Tuesday evening, the only change to this list is the removal of UConn after their 21-point loss to St. John's in the Big East Tournament.
Click any team name that appears as a link to visit that school's SB Nation blog.
RPI data from Crashing The Dance and reflects games through Monday, March 8. All records reflect games played against Division I opponents through Tuesday, March 9.
Seton Hall (19-11; 9-9 Big East; RPI: 55; Non-conf. RPI: 78): Remember that string of four games at the end of 2009/start of 2010, where the Pirates lost heartbreakers, including OT games against West Virginia and Virginia Tech? Hall fans are undoubtedly wishing they’d won a couple of those right about now, as those wins would be major boosts to an OK resume. But they didn’t, meaning the Pirates own a 2-8 mark against the RPI Top 50 and a 5-7 road/neutral mark. However, they have four wins against teams I have in my Monday projection. That's a boost. The Pirates finished strong, wrapping up a sweeping Rutgers and winning at Providence to close the regular season. They beat the Friars again in the Big East opening round Tuesday, but the Friars mounted a comeback that exposed the Pirates' defense. But the Hall held on, meaning a game with a hungry Notre Dame team is on deck for Wednesday. Given how the first meeting between the two went, perhaps another shootout is in the cards.
San Diego State (20-8; 11-5 MWC; RPI: 36; Non-conf. RPI: 36):The Aztecs won their home finale Wednesday night over Colorado State, then followed that victory up with a win at Air Force Saturday. At one point, SDSU was four points away from owning a 10-game win streak, as they lost to BYU by 2 at home and dropped a 2-point OT game at New Mexico. The Aztecs will wish they had those two games back, as they currently sit at 2-5 against the RPI Top 50 (both wins, over New Mexico and UNLV, came at home). The fourth-seeded Aztecs open the Mountain West Tournament with a game against fifth-seeded Colorado State Thursday. Top seeded New Mexico is their potential semifinal opponent.
South Florida (20-11; Big East 9-9; RPI: 61; Non-conf. RPI: 69): The Bulls knocked off UConn Saturday to burst the Huskies' bubble and move a little closer to booking a place of their own. The Bulls seem to have an issue with playing to the level of their competition, as they’re 3-5 vs. the RPI Top 50, but only 2-5 against teams rated between 51 and 100. They own wins over Pitt, Georgetown and Seton Hall, but a sweep at the hands of Notre Dame, and losses to St. John's, Central Michigan and South Carolina are blemishes. USF will probably need to win twice in the Big East Tournament. That won't be easy, as the Bulls only grabbed the nine seed. USF knocked off DePaul Tuesday, and will try to beat Georgetown for the second time this season Wednesday afternoon..
Illinois (17-13; 10-8 Big Ten; RPI: 72; Non-conf. RPI: 117): The The Fighting Illini's resume has some good points (win at Wisconsin, comeback over Clemson, home wins over Michigan State and Vanderbilt) and some bad (home loss to Minnesota, neutral site losses to Bradley, Utah, semi-away loss to Georgia). They'd likely be in, but they've dropped three in a row, which isn't the way to head into the Big Ten Tournament. Making matters worse, they play Wisconsin, who they lost to at home on Sunday, in the quarterfinals Friday..
Mississippi (21-9; 9-7 SEC; RPI: 57; Non-conf. RPI: 35): While Miss. State is fading, Ole Miss is winning late, as they closed the regular season with four straight wins, capped by a close victory over Arkansas in Fayetteville on Saturday. The Rebels’ marquee win is better than archrivals' Mississippi State's, as they defeated Kansas State by 12 in Puerto Rico before Thanksgiving. Still, not managing to beat the Bulldogs once is an issue, considering that’s the difference in the race for the weaker division of the SEC. For now, the Rebels are just outside, but the SEC Tournament will ultimately determine their fate. As the two seed out of the West, Ole Miss will face either Tennessee or LSU in Friday's quarterfinals.
Arizona State (22-9; 12-6 Pac-10; RPI: 54; Non-conf. RPI: 56): The Sun Devils swept past the L.A. schools to lock up the second seed in this week's Pac-10 Tournament. Thanks to what else has gone on around the country, they may only need to make the final to get in, which speaks volumes about the quality of this season's bubble. Currently, the only win the Sun Devils can hang their hat on is a home victory over San Diego State on December 19, their lone top 50 win in six tries. ASU begins Pac-10 Tournament play against seventh-seeded Stanford on Thursday.
Washington (20-9; 10-7 Pac-10; RPI: 52; Non-conf. RPI: 28): Much like the Sun Devils, the Huskies have some life, as they own home wins over Texas A&M and Cal. However, December losses at Texas Tech and against Georgetown in Anaheim are missed opportunities in a weak bubble year. Washington swept the Oregon schools to finish the regular season strong and lock up the third seed in the Pac-10 Tournament. They'll face sixth-seeded Oregon State again in the quarterfinals on Thursday. If both ASU and UW make the semifinal, that game could be for a bid.
Dayton (20-11; 8-8 A-10; RPI: 50; Non-conf. RPI: 14): The Flyers will need to make a run in Atlantic City to go dancing after Saturday's home loss to St. Louis. Their road/neutral record stands at 5-9 after Thursday night's setback at Richmond, a game the Flyers were in control of until the last 10 minutes. The Flyers' the best win came against Georgia Tech in Puerto Rico way back on November 19 and the best true road victory came against George Mason on December 8. The Flyers are the seventh-seeded team in the A-10 Tournament, and they'll face second-seeded Xavier in Atlantic City Friday, as they knocked off George Washington in the opening round on Tuesday.
UAB (23-7; 11-5 C-USA; RPI: 40; non-conf. RPI: 17): The Blazers looked like they were going to grab a valuable road win at Conference USA regular season champ UTEP Saturday, but they let the Miners off the hook. They can no longer rely on their early season home wins over lock Butler and fellow bubble team Cincinnati. UAB owns a 11-4 road/neutral record, but that’s a bit deceptive, as the losses came against four of their best five road opponents — Kent State, Memphis, UTEP and Virginia. The Blazers slipped down to the three seed for the conference tournament in Tulsa. They'll meet either Southern Miss or Tulane in the quarterfinal Thursday. The bad news for UAB is that they're on Memphis' side of the bracket, and the Tigers won both regular season meetings.
Memphis (23-8; 13-3 C-USA; RPI: 47: Non-conf. RPI: 92): The Tigers do own a 7-5 mark against the RPI Top 100; however, only two of those wins came against a Top 50 opponent, the sweep over UAB. Memphis' two best non-league wins came against IUPUI and Oakland. A 7-5 road/neutral mark is OK, but the best of those wins (after the win at UAB) came against Marshall and Tulsa. Josh Pastner's club fattened up on Division I's worst teams, going 15-2 against teams ranked 151+ in the RPI, losing at UMass and SMU. The Tigers are the two seed in the C-USA Tournament, meaning they'll face either Houston or East Carolina in the quarterfinals Thursday. I still think they need to win the auto bid to dance.
Rhode Island (22-8; 9-7 A-10; RPI: 39; Non-conf. RPI: 5): After Saturday's loss to UMass, the Rams are probably headed to the NIT. They can change that with a run through the A-10 Tournament, which they started with a win over St. Joseph's on Tuesday night. That sets up a quarterfinal with St, Louis (who beat the Rams in St. Louis) Friday. Rhody's marquee non-conference win came against Oklahoma State, and they own respectable victories over Northeastern, Providence and Boston College. However, none of those three are likely to dance. Making matters worse is the fact the Rams' best league win is over Dayton, as they're 0-4 against Temple, Richmond and Xavier, the three A-10 teams who are in the best shape.
Mississippi State (21-10; 9-7 SEC; RPI: 68; Non-conf. RPI: 76): The wheels came off the Bulldogs at the wrong time, as they finished the regular season with back-to-back losses to Auburn (inexcusable) and Tennessee (forgivable, but not in the manner in which MSU fell). The Bulldogs' resume is a bit thin outside of their sweep of archrival (and fellow bubble team) Ole Miss, as a win over Old Dominion in South Padre is the non-conference highlight and losses at Western Kentucky and against Rider in Starkville are major blemishes. As the top seed in the West, the Bulldogs have a bye to the quarterfinals at the SEC Tournament. They'll meet the Florida-Auburn winner on Friday in Nashville.
UConn falls off the board after their loss to St. John's Tuesday.
Minnesota (18-12; 9-9 Big Ten; RPI: 78; Non-conf. RPI: 60): After grabbing a win at Illinois last Saturday, the Golden Gophers made a huge jump. Tuesday night, they gave it all back with an abysmal performance at Michigan, where they lost by 28. The defeat was costly as it cost the Gophers a shot at a bye in the Big Ten Tournament. The Golden Gophers are 5-9 this season against the RPI Top 100. Three of those wins came at The Barn, where they defeated Ohio State, Wisconsin and now-out of the picture Northwestern. Minnesota's nine-point triumph over Butler in Anaheim is useful, but the losses to Portland and Texas A&M that followed aren't. Neither was the road loss at Miami days after the California trip. Losses to Indiana (in Bloomington) the Michigan sweep sting. Minnesota beat Iowa on Sunday to close the regular season, but they'll need to make a run in Indianapolis. The Gophers open with Penn State on Thursday, with Michigan State awaiting in the quarterfinals if they win.
St. Louis (19-10; 11-5 A-10; RPI: 83; Non-conf. RPI: 200): There are two reasons why the Billikens aren't closer to the field: their 5-7 road/neutral record, and the fact their best non-conference win came against Big 12 bottom feeder Nebraska. Still, SLU grabbed the four seed, and a bye, for the A-10 Tournament after Saturday's win at Dayton. They'll face Rhode Island in Atlantic City on Friday.
Wichita State (23-9; 10-2; RPI: 45; non-conf. RPI: 87): The Shockers couldn't take themselves off the bubble aas they fell to Northern Iowa in Sunday's MVC championship game. The Shockers best two wins, over the Panthers and Texas Tech, came at home. Like UNI, Wichita State also lost to Evansville and Bradley in the league, but the Shockers also fell to Drake and Creighton once. All four of those losses came on the road, meaning WSU has a mediocre 7-8 road/neutral mark.
Bubble Watch teams again dodged a bullet Tuesday night, as the Horizon remains a one-bid league, thanks to Butler's big 70-45 victory over Wright State. That win means all of my "Last Four In" from Monday's bracket stay in Wednesday's version.
Two of those teams were in action Tuesday at the Big East Tournament. That event featured four first-round games with bubble interest, and Wednesday will see... four games with bubble interest. This is despite the fact UConn lost their opener. You can follow the biggest of the conference tournaments here on SB Nation.
USF 58, DePaul 49 (recap): The Bulls managed to beat the Blue Demons even though they didn't hit a single jump shot over the 40 minutes. They can't repeat that if they want to beat eight seed Georgetown in round two (12 p.m. ET, ESPN). The Bulls beat the Hoyas in Washington on March 3 to cap their first-ever four-game Big East win streak.
St. John's 73, Connecticut 51 (recap): The Huskies are off the board after being thoroughly outplayed by the Red Storm. The Johnnies move on to face fifth-seeded Marquette (2:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)). The Golden Eagles needed overtime to claim a 63-61 win in New York on February 24.
Seton Hall 109, Providence 106 (recap): The Pirates had this game in hand, then the Friars decided to show up and make it interesting. Seton Hall survived to meet seventh-seeded Notre Dame (7 p.m. ET, ESPN). This one could be a shootout as well. The Pirates beat the Irish, 90-87, in Newark on February 11.
Cincinnati 69, Rutgers 68 (recap): The Bearcats needed two Lance Stephenson free throws to beat Rutgers and keep their slim NCAA hopes alive. Cincy will next meet third-seeded Louisville Wednesday night (9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). The Cardinals beat the Bearcats in their only meeting on January 24.
Two Atlantic 10 teams under consideration won opening round games Tuesday and will advance to Friday's quarterfinals in Atlantic City; however, one who looked to be in good position just a few weeks ago wasn't so lucky.
Dayton 70, George Washington 60 (recap): The Flyers move on to play archrival and second-seed Xavier. The two met twice during the regular season, with the home team claiming both contests.
Rhode Island 87, St. Joseph's 76 (recap): The fifth-seeded Rams struggled with the Hawks, but they survived to face fourth-seeded St, Louis Friday. The Billikens won the only meeting on the year, in St. Louis.
Massachusetts 59, Charlotte 56 (recap): The 49ers needed to make a run through the tournament to have any chance at the NCAAs. Now, all they can hope for is a decent NIT seed.
The Big 12 Tournament tips off Wednesday, and the opening round sees two games of interest, both in the night session. Be sure to check out our Big 12 Tourney stream.
Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma, 7 p.m. ET (Big 12 Network/Full Court) These two split the Bedlam series this season, with each club winning at home.
Texas vs. Iowa State, 9:30 p.m. ET (Big 12 Network/Full Court): The Longhorns beat the Cyclones by seven in Ames, back when they were unbeaten. That seems like an eternity ago.
Bubble Watch teams from coast-to-coast rejoiced when Old Dominion and Siena claimed their respective conference crowns Monday night; however, St. Mary's win over Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference final means there is one less at-large spot remaining.
CAA Championship: Old Dominion 60, William & Mary 53 (recap): The Monarchs probably would have been in even if they lost this one. The Tribe missed several threes in the final minute that could have made this one a real nail-biter, considering Old Dominion's struggles from the free throw line.
Metro Atlantic Championship: Siena 72, Fairfield 65 (recap): The Saints had to come from behind for the third game in a row. If they had lost this one on their home floor, they likely would not have received an at-large.
Wes Coast Championship: St. Mary's 81, Gonzaga 62 (recap): The Gaels got themselves off the bubble with their first West Coast title since 1997. The loss means the Bulldogs will probably not play in Spokane for the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
Tuesday sees the first round of the Big East Tournament, which features must-win games for three teams in the hunt.
USF (Last Four In) vs. DePaul, 12 p.m. ET (ESPN2): The Bulls struggled with the Blue Demons in Chicago just one week ago.
Connecticut (Next Four Out) vs. St. John's, 2:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2): The Huskies beat St. John's to snap a three-game losing streak just before they defeated Texas.
Seton Hall (Last Four In) vs. Providence, 7 p.m. ET (ESPNU): The Pirates won in Providence by 12 on Saturday.
Cincinnati vs. Rutgers, 9 p.m. ET (ESPNU): The Bearcats won by seven in Piscataway back on January 2.
The four winners move on to Wednesday's second round, where seeds five through eight await.
Here is the updated look at the teams fighting for the last few spots in the NCAA field. Click here for my Monday bracket projection.
Click any team name that appears as a link to visit that school's SB Nation blog.
RPI data from Crashing The Dance and reflects games through Sunday, March 7. All records reflect games played against Division I opponents through Sunday, March 7.
Seton Hall (18-11; 9-9 Big East; RPI: 57; Non-conf. RPI: 79): Remember that string of four games at the end of 2009/start of 2010, where the Pirates lost heartbreakers, including OT games against West Virginia and Virginia Tech? Hall fans are undoubtedly wishing they’d won a couple of those right about now, as those wins would be major boosts to an OK resume. But they didn’t, meaning the Pirates own a 2-8 mark against the RPI Top 50 and a 5-7 road/neutral mark. However, they have four wins against teams I have in my Monday projection. That's a boost. The Pirates finished strong, sweeping Rutgers and winning at Providence, but those wins won't boost their computer numbers much. Seton Hall faces the Friars again in the opening round Tuesday. If they win, Notre Dame would be their Wednesday opponent.
San Diego State (20-8; 11-5 MWC; RPI: 35; Non-conf. RPI: 37):The Aztecs won their home finale Wednesday night over Colorado State, then followed that victory up with a win at Air Force Saturday. At one point, SDSU was four points away from owning a 10-game win streak, as they lost to BYU by 2 at home and dropped a 2-point OT game at New Mexico. The Aztecs will wish they had those two games back, as they currently sit at 2-5 against the RPI Top 50 (both wins, over New Mexico and UNLV, came at home). The fourth-seeded Aztecs open the Mountain West Tournament with a game against fifth-seeded Colorado State Thursday. Top seeded New Mexico is their potential semifinal opponent.
South Florida (19-11; Big East 9-9; RPI: 61; Non-conf. RPI: 69): The Bulls knocked off UConn Saturday to burst the Huskies' bubble and move a little closer to booking a place of their own. The Bulls seem to have an issue with playing to the level of their competition, as they’re 3-5 vs. the RPI Top 50, but only 2-5 against teams rated between 51 and 100. They own wins over Pitt, Georgetown and Seton Hall, but a sweep at the hands of Notre Dame, and losses to St. John's, Central Michigan and South Carolina are blemishes. USF will probably need to win twice in the Big East Tournament. That won't be easy, as the Bulls only grabbed the nine seed. They open with DePaul Tuesday. If they win that, Georgetown awaits in round two on Wednesday.
Illinois (17-13; 10-8 Big Ten; RPI: 76; Non-conf. RPI: 116): The The Fighting Illini's resume has some good points (win at Wisconsin, comeback over Clemson, home wins over Michigan State and Vanderbilt) and some bad (home loss to Minnesota, neutral site losses to Bradley, Utah, semi-away loss to Georgia). They'd likely be in, but they've dropped three in a row, which isn't the way to head into the Big Ten Tournament. Making matters worse, they play Wisconsin, who they lost to at home on Sunday, in the quarterfinals Friday. That is shaping up to be a must-win.
First Four Out
Mississippi (21-9; 9-7 SEC; RPI: 58; Non-conf. RPI: 35): While Miss. State is fading, Ole Miss is winning late, as they closed the regular season with four straight wins, capped by a close victory over Arkansas in Fayetteville on Saturday. The Rebels’ marquee win is better than archrivals' Mississippi State's, as they defeated Kansas State by 12 in Puerto Rico before Thanksgiving. Still, not managing to beat the Bulldogs once is an issue, considering that’s the difference in the race for the weaker division of the SEC. For now, the Rebels hold a place, but the SEC Tournament will ultimately determine their fate. As the two seed out of the West, Ole Miss will face either Tennessee or LSU in Friday's quarterfinals.
Arizona State (22-9; 12-6 Pac-10; RPI: 54; Non-conf. RPI: 56): The Sun Devils swept past the L.A. schools to lock up the second seed in this week's Pac-10 Tournament. Thanks to what else has gone on around the country, they may only need to make the final to get in, which speaks volumes about the quality of this season's bubble. Currently, the only win the Sun Devils can hang their hat on is a home victory over San Diego State on December 19, their lone top 50 win in six tries. ASU begins Pac-10 Tournament play against seventh-seeded Stanford on Thursday.
Washington (20-9; 10-7 Pac-10; RPI: 53; Non-conf. RPI: 28): Much like the Sun Devils, the Huskies have some life, as they own home wins over Texas A&M and Cal. However, December losses at Texas Tech and against Georgetown in Anaheim are missed opportunities in a weak bubble year. Washington swept the Oregon schools to finish the regular season strong and lock up the third seed in the Pac-10 Tournament. They'll face sixth-seeded Oregon State again in the quarterfinals on Thursday. If both ASU and UW make the semifinal, that game could be for a bid.
Dayton (19-11; 8-8 A-10; RPI: 49; Non-conf. RPI: 14): The Flyers will need to make a run in Atlantic City to go dancing after Saturday's home loss to St. Louis. Their road/neutral record stands at 5-9 after Thursday night's setback at Richmond, a game the Flyers were in control of until the last 10 minutes. The Flyers' the best win came against Georgia Tech in Puerto Rico way back on November 19 and the best true road victory came against George Mason on December 8. The Flyers are the seventh-seeded team in the A-10 Tournament. They open against No. 10 George Washington at home Tuesday.
UAB (23-7; 11-5 C-USA; RPI: 41; non-conf. RPI: 18): The Blazers looked like they were going to grab a valuable road win at Conference USA regular season champ UTEP Saturday, but they let the Miners off the hook. They can no longer rely on their early season home wins over lock Butler and fellow bubble team Cincinnati. UAB owns a 11-4 road/neutral record, but that’s a bit deceptive, as the losses came against four of their best five road opponents — Kent State, Memphis, UTEP and Virginia. The Blazers slipped down to the three seed for the conference tournament in Tulsa. They'll meet either Southern Miss or Tulane in the quarterfinal Thursday. The bad news for UAB is that they're on Memphis' side of the bracket, and the Tigers won both regular season meetings.
Connecticut (17-14; 7-11 Big East; RPI: 49; non-conf. RPI: 15): The Huskies followed up a three-game win streak, that included wins over West Virginia and Villanova with a three-game losing streak, all against bubble teams. Back-to-back losses at Notre Dame and USF means UConn is now 3-10 in road/neutral games. The Huskies are also 3-8 in games against the RPI Top 50. The Huskies are the 12 seed in the Big East Tournament, so they'll open with No. 13 St. John's on Tuesday. If they win that, fifth-seeded Marquette would be Wednesday's opponent.
Memphis (23-8; 13-3 C-USA; RPI: 51: Non-conf. RPI: 97): The Tigers do own a 7-5 mark against the RPI Top 100; however, only two of those wins came against a Top 50 opponent, the sweep over UAB. Memphis' two best non-league wins came against IUPUI and Oakland. A 7-5 road/neutral mark is OK, but the best of those wins (after the win at UAB) came against Marshall and Tulsa. Josh Pastner's club fattened up on Division I's worst teams, going 15-2 against teams ranked 151+ in the RPI, losing at UMass and SMU. The Tigers are the two seed in the C-USA Tournament, meaning they'll face either Houston or East Carolina in the quarterfinals Thursday. I still think they need to win the auto bid to dance.
Rhode Island (21-8; 9-7 A-10; RPI: 30; Non-conf. RPI: 4): After Saturday's loss to UMass, the Rams are headed to the NIT, barring a run through the A-10 Tournament. Rhody's marquee non-conference win came against Oklahoma State, and they own respectable victories over Northeastern, Providence and Boston College. However, none of those three are likely to dance. Making matters worse is the fact the Rams' best league win is over Dayton, as they're 0-4 against Temple, Richmond and Xavier, the three A-10 teams who look to be in the best shape. The fifth-seeded Rams open A-10 Tournament play against No. 12 Saint Joseph's at home on Tuesday. If they win that, a quarterfinal against fourth-seeded St. Louis would await Friday.
Minnesota (18-12; 9-9 Big Ten; RPI: 78; Non-conf. RPI: 57): After grabbing a win at Illinois last Saturday, the Golden Gophers made a huge jump. Tuesday night, they gave it all back with an abysmal performance at Michigan, where they lost by 28. The defeat was costly as it cost the Gophers a shot at a bye in the Big Ten Tournament. The Golden Gophers are 5-9 this season against the RPI Top 100. Three of those wins came at The Barn, where they defeated Ohio State, Wisconsin and now-out of the picture Northwestern. Minnesota's nine-point triumph over Butler in Anaheim is useful, but the losses to Portland and Texas A&M that followed aren't. Neither was the road loss at Miami days after the California trip. Losses to Indiana (in Bloomington) the Michigan sweep sting. Minnesota beat Iowa on Sunday to close the regular season, but they'll need to make a run in Indianapolis. The Gophers open with Penn State on Thursday, with Michigan State awaiting in the quarterfinals if they win.
Mississippi State (21-10; 9-7 SEC; RPI: 61; Non-conf. RPI: 75): The wheels came off the Bulldogs at the wrong time, as they finished the regular season with back-to-back losses to Auburn (inexcusable) and Tennessee (forgivable, but not in the manner in which MSU fell). The Bulldogs' resume is a bit thin outside of their sweep of archrival (and fellow bubble team) Ole Miss, as a win over Old Dominion in South Padre is the non-conference highlight and losses at Western Kentucky and against Rider in Starkville are major blemishes. As the top seed in the West, the Bulldogs have a bye to the quarterfinals at the SEC Tournament. They'll meet the Florida-Auburn winner on Friday in Nashville.
St. Louis (19-10; 11-5 A-10; RPI: 93; Non-conf. RPI: 201): There are two reasons why the Billikens aren't closer to the field: their 5-7 road/neutral record, and the fact their best non-conference win came against Big 12 bottom feeder Nebraska. Still, SLU grabbed the four seed, and a bye, for the A-10 Tournament after Saturday's win at Dayton. They'll face the Rhode Island-St. Joseph's winner in Atlantic City on Friday.
Wichita State (23-9; 10-2; RPI: 47; non-conf. RPI: 86): The Shockers couldn't take themselves off the bubble aas they fell to Northern Iowa in Sunday's MVC championship game. The Shockers best two wins, over the Panthers and Texas Tech, came at home. Like UNI, Wichita State also lost to Evansville and Bradley in the league, but the Shockers also fell to Drake and Creighton once. All four of those losses came on the road, meaning WSU has a mediocre 7-8 road/neutral mark.
Old Dominion and Siena moved closer to locking up their conferences' automatic bids on Sunday, while Northern Iowa booked their place by claiming the Missouri Valley crown.
In the major conferences, Florida and Illinois fell to further damage their chances.
There are three conference title games with bubble implications on tap for Monday. Besides the Colonial and Metro Atlantic finals, lock Gonzaga will meet bubble team St. Mary's for the West Coast crown.
Team statuses based on my Sunday update.
St. Mary's 69, Portland 55 (West Coast Semifinal) (recap): A trio of Gaels scored 16 each to avenge their 80-75 overtime loss to the Pilots on February 13.
Tonight, St. Mary's will try to beat top seed Gonzaga for the first time this season (9 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Northern Iowa 67, Wichita State 52 (Missouri Valley Championship) (recap): The Panthers burst the Shockers bubble and ensured the MVC will be a one-bid league once again this season. Bubble teams nationwide were happy with the result.
Minnesota 88, Iowa 53 (recap): The Golden Gophers finished the regular season strong by overwhelming the Hawkeyes. They'll need to do well in Indianapolis this week, however, with Penn State on tap for Wednesday.
Kentucky 74, Florida 66 (recap): The Gators looked dead for awhile in this one, but fought back. It wasn't enough, but they weren't embarrassed. Florida next plays Auburn in the SEC Tournament Thursday. Win that and an elimination game with Mississippi State awaits on Friday night.
Wisconsin 72, Illinois 57 (recap): The Illini have dropped five of six and are in real trouble. Making matters worse, they have to play the Badgers again in the Big Ten quarterfinals Friday.
Old Dominion 73, VCU 69 (OT) (CAA Semifinal) (recap): Bubble teams across the country breathed a sigh of relief when the Monarchs came back from 12 down to win Sunday.
On Monday, Old Dominion can all but ensure the CAA is a one-bid league if they beat William & Mary in Monday's championship game (7 p.m. ET, ESPN).
Siena 72, Rider 62 (Metro Atlantic Semifinal) (recap): The Saints knocked off the mercurial Broncs to move on to Monday's final against two seed Fairfield (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2). While Siena swept the Stags, they only managed to win by two at home on February 8. This one is again in Albany.
Wake Forest 70, Clemson 65 (recap): The Demon Deacons snapped a four-game losing streak and gave themselves a bit of breathing room.
Sunday is a quieter day from a Bubble Watch perspective compared to Saturday. Much of the attention over this afternoon and evening will be on conference tournament action. Bubble teams will be hoping for Northern Iowa, Old Dominion and Siena wins.
Team statuses based on my Sunday update.
St. Mary's vs. Portland (West Coast Semifinal), 10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2): The Gaels need to make the final, but the Pilots are a terrible matchup for them. Remember Portland's OT win back on February 13?
Northern Iowa vs. Wichita State (Missouri Valley Championship), 2 p.m. ET (CBS): The Shockers can probably make the Valley a two-bid league if they defeat the Panthers in St. Louis.
Iowa at Minnesota, 6 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network): If you thought the Golden Gophers had no hope after falling at Michigan Tuesday, a loss to the Hawkeyes would make that postgame reaction seem downright cheerful.
Florida at Kentucky, 12 p.m. ET (CBS): A win in Lexington would bolster the Gators' flagging hopes, but it's likely they'll need to make a run through the SEC Tournament in Nashville to be safe.
Wisconsin at Illinois, 2 p.m. ET (ESPN): The Fighting Illini look to complete a season sweep of the Badgers, a feat that would really help their case.
Old Dominion vs. VCU (CAA Semifinal), 3 p.m. ET (CSN New England/Comcast Network/CSS/Full Court): The crowd will be on the Rams' side, so this will be a tough one for the Monarchs, the regular season champions.
Siena vs. Rider (Metro Atlantic Semifinal), 4:30 p.m. ET (MSG/MASN/FCS Atlantic/Full Court): The Saints won a contentious contest over Manhattan in the quarterfinals on Saturday.
Clemson at Wake Forest, 6 p.m. ET (FSN/Comcast SportsNet): The Demon Deacons look to avoid a fifth straight defeat. If they fall, their slot is back in play.
Here is the updated look at how the NCAA Tournament field stacks up heading into the weekend. Click here for my Saturday morning bracket. My next projection will be released Monday morning to reflect the weekend's conference championship games and other action.
Click any team name that appears as a link to visit that school's SB Nation blog.
America East, Atlantic Sun (East Tennessee State), Big Sky, Big South (Winthrop), Big West, Ivy (Cornell), Mid-American, Mid-Eastern, Northeast, Ohio Valley (Murray State), Patriot, Southern, Southland, Southwestern, Summit, Sun Belt
West Coast: Gonzaga (lock)
Horizon: Butler (lock)
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa (somewhat safe)
Conference USA: UTEP (somewhat safe)
Pacific-10: California
Western Athletic: Utah State
Colonial: Old Dominion
Metro Atlantic: Siena
ACC: Duke*, Maryland, Clemson, Florida State
A-10: Temple*, Xavier, Richmond
Big East: Syracuse*, Villanova, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Louisville
Big Ten: Purdue*, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Big 12: Kansas*, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Missouri, Texas
Horizon: Butler*
MWC: New Mexico*, BYU
SEC: Kentucky*, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
WCC: Gonzaga*
Teams with an asterisk hold their respective conference's automatic bid at the moment.
ACC: Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech
Big East: Marquette, Notre Dame
Big Ten: Illinois
Big 12: Oklahoma State
C-USA: UTEP
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa*
MWC: UNLV
SEC: Florida
Of this group, Florida, Georgia Tech, Illinois and Wake Forest hold the most precarious positions. These four teams could find themselves among either the Last Four In or First Four Out as the clock ticks down .
That takes care of 61 of the 65 teams. (No, I didn't count wrong, locks Butler and Gonzaga and "work to do" clubs UNI and UTEP appear twice.) That leaves me to look at the last four teams in the field and the 12 who have varying chances at replacing them over the next week or so.
RPI data from Crashing The Dance and reflects games through Friday, March 4. All records reflect games played against Division I opponents through Saturday, March 5.
San Diego State (20-8; 11-5 MWC; RPI: 33; Non-conf. RPI: 38):The Aztecs won their home finale Wednesday night over Colorado State, then followed that victory up with a win at Air Force Saturday. At one point, SDSU was four points away from owning a 10-game win streak, as they lost to BYU by 2 at home and dropped a 2-point OT game at New Mexico. The Aztecs will wish they had those two games back, as they currently sit at 2-5 against the RPI Top 50 (both wins, over New Mexico and UNLV, came at home). The fourth-seeded Aztecs open the Mountain West Tournament with a game against fifth-seeded Colorado State Thursday. Top seeded New Mexico is their potential semifinal opponent.
St. Mary's (23-5: 11-3 West Coast; RPI: 46; Non-conf. RPI: 29): After dropping consecutive road games to Gonzaga and Portland, the Gaels really needed a BracketBuster game. However, they skipped the event this season since that would have resulted in a four-game road trip (as SMC was designated as an away team). An extra game would have helped a resume that already includes win over bubble teams Utah State (in Logan) San Diego State (at home) and a two-point loss against Vanderbilt before the Commodores went to Maui. A win over Gonzaga would have been helpful, and the Gaels may get a third shot at one in Las Vegas Monday. Portland stands in the way in tonight's WCC semifinals.
South Florida (19-11; Big East 9-9; RPI: 62; Non-conf. RPI: 68): The Bulls knocked off UConn Saturday to burst the Huskies' bubble and move a little closer to booking a place of their own. The Bulls seem to have an issue with playing to the level of their competition, as they’re 3-5 vs. the RPI Top 50, but only 2-5 against teams rated between 51 and 100. They own wins over Pitt, Georgetown and Seton Hall, but a sweep at the hands of Notre Dame, and losses to St. John's, Central Michigan and South Carolina are blemishes. USF will probably need to win twice in the Big East Tournament. That won't be easy, as the Bulls only grabbed the nine seed. They open with DePaul Tuesday. If they win that, Georgetown awaits in round two on Wednesday.
Mississippi (21-9; 9-7 SEC; RPI: 58; Non-conf. RPI: 35): While Miss. State is fading, Ole Miss is winning late, as they closed the regular season with four straight wins, capped by a close victory over Arkansas in Fayetteville on Saturday. The Rebels’ marquee win is better than archrivals' Mississippi State's, as they defeated Kansas State by 12 in Puerto Rico before Thanksgiving. Still, not managing to beat the Bulldogs once is an issue, considering that’s the difference in the race for the weaker division of the SEC. For now, the Rebels hold a place, but the SEC Tournament will ultimately determine their fate. As the two seed out of the West, Ole Miss will face either Tennessee or LSU in Friday's quarterfinals.
Arizona State (22-9; 12-6 Pac-10; RPI: 54; Non-conf. RPI: 59): The Sun Devils swept past the L.A. schools to lock up the second seed in this week's Pac-10 Tournament. Thanks to what else has gone on around the country, they may only need to make the final to get in, which speaks volumes about the quality of this season's bubble. Currently, the only win the Sun Devils can hang their hat on is a home victory over San Diego State on December 19, their lone top 50 win in six tries. ASU begins Pac-10 Tournament play against seventh-seeded Stanford on Thursday.
UAB (23-7; 11-5 C-USA; RPI: 41; non-conf. RPI: 18): The Blazers looked like they were going to grab a valuable road win at Conference USA regular season champ UTEP Saturday, but they let the Miners off the hook. They can no longer rely on their early season home wins over lock Butler and fellow bubble team Cincinnati. UAB owns a 11-4 road/neutral record, but that’s a bit deceptive, as the losses came against four of their best five road opponents — Kent State, Memphis, UTEP and Virginia. The Blazers slipped down to the three seed for the conference tournament in Tulsa. They'll meet either Southern Miss or Tulane in the quarterfinal Thursday. The bad news for UAB is that they're on Memphis' side of the bracket, and the Tigers won both regular season meetings.
Washington (20-9; 10-7 Pac-10; RPI: 55; Non-conf. RPI: 27): Much like the Sun Devils, the Huskies have some life, as they own home wins over Texas A&M and Cal. However, December losses at Texas Tech and against Georgetown in Anaheim are missed opportunities in a weak bubble year. Washington swept the Oregon schools to finish the regular season strong and lock up the third seed in the Pac-10 Tournament. They'll face sixth-seeded Oregon State again in the quarterfinals on Thursday. If both ASU and UW make the semifinal, that game could be for a bid.
Seton Hall (18-11; 9-9 Big East; RPI: 57; Non-conf. RPI: 76): Remember that string of four games at the end of 2009/start of 2010, where the Pirates lost heartbreakers, including OT games against West Virginia and Virginia Tech? Hall fans are undoubtedly wishing they’d won a couple of those right about now, as those wins would be major boosts to an OK resume. But they didn’t, meaning the Pirates own a 2-9 mark against the RPI Top 50 and a 4-7 road/neutral mark. Those stats aren’t major selling points. One thing Seton Hall has done this season is prove that they can lose to good teams, and they'll need to change that perception at the Big East Tournament. The Pirates finished strong, sweeping Rutgers and winning at Providence, but those wins won't boost their computer numbers much. Seton Hall faces the Friars again in the opening round Tuesday. If they win, Notre Dame would be their Wednesday opponent.
Wichita State (23-8; 10-2; RPI: 47; non-conf. RPI: 86): The Shockers can take themselves off the bubble and make the Missouri Valley a two-bid league by defeating Northern Iowa in Sunday's championship game. The Shockers best two wins, over the Panthers and Texas Tech, came at home. Like UNI, Wichita State also lost to Evansville and Bradley in the league, but the Shockers also fell to Drake and Creighton once. All four of those losses came on the road, meaning WSU has a mediocre 7-8 road/neutral mark.
Mississippi State (21-10; 9-7 SEC; RPI: 61; Non-conf. RPI: 75): The wheels came off the Bulldogs at the wrong time, as they finished the regular season with back-to-back losses to Auburn (inexcusable) and Tennessee (forgivable, but not in the manner in which MSU fell). The Bulldogs’ resume is a bit thin outside of their sweep of archrival (and fellow bubble team) Ole Miss, as a win over Old Dominion in South Padre is the non-conference highlight and losses at Western Kentucky and against Rider in Starkville are major blemishes. As the top seed in the West, the Bulldogs have a bye to the quarterfinals at the SEC Tournament. They'll meet the Florida-Auburn winner on Friday in Nashville.
Rhode Island (21-8; 9-7 A-10; RPI: 30; Non-conf. RPI: 4): After Saturday's loss to UMass, the Rams are headed to the NIT, barring a run through the A-10 Tournament. Rhody's marquee non-conference win came against Oklahoma State, and they own respectable victories over Northeastern, Providence and Boston College. However, none of those three are likely to dance. Making matters worse is the fact the Rams' best league win is over Dayton, as they're 0-4 against Temple, Richmond and Xavier, the three A-10 teams who look to be in the best shape. The fifth-seeded Rams open A-10 Tournament play against No. 12 Saint Joseph's at home on Tuesday. If they win that, a quarterfinal against fourth-seeded St. Louis would await Friday.Memphis (23-8; 13-3 C-USA; RPI: 51: Non-conf. RPI: 97): The Tigers do own a 7-5 mark against the RPI Top 100; however, only two of those wins came against a Top 50 opponent, the sweep over UAB. Memphis' two best non-league wins came against IUPUI and Oakland. A 7-5 road/neutral mark is OK, but the best of those wins (after the win at UAB) came against Marshall and Tulsa. Josh Pastner's club fattened up on Division I's worst teams, going 15-2 against teams ranked 151+ in the RPI, losing at UMass and SMU. The Tigers are the two seed in the C-USA Tournament, meaning they'll face either Houston or East Carolina in the quarterfinals Thursday. I still think they need to win the auto bid to dance.
On The Fringe
Charlotte and Cincinnati drop out of this group after their losses Saturday. St. Louis jumps back in, but they really need to make a statement in the Atlantic 10 Tournament to make the NCAAs.
Connecticut (17-14; 7-11 Big East; RPI: 49; non-conf. RPI: 15): The Huskies followed up a three-game win streak, that included wins over West Virginia and Villanova with a three-game losing streak, all against bubble teams. Back-to-back losses at Notre Dame and USF means UConn is now 3-10 in road/neutral games. The Huskies are also 3-8 in games against the RPI Top 50. The Huskies are the 12 seed in the Big East Tournament, so they'll open with No. 13 St. John's on Tuesday. If they win that, fifth-seeded Marquette would be Wednesday's opponent.
Dayton (19-11; 8-8 A-10; RPI: 42; Non-conf. RPI: 14): The Flyers will need to make a run in Atlantic City to go dancing after Saturday's home loss to St. Louis. Their road/neutral record stands at 5-9 after Thursday night's setback at Richmond, a game the Flyers were in control of until the last 10 minutes. The Flyers' the best win came against Georgia Tech in Puerto Rico way back on November 19 and the best true road victory came against George Mason on December 8. The Flyers are the seventh-seeded team in the A-10 Tournament. They open against No. 10 George Washington at home Tuesday.
Minnesota (17-12; 8-9 Big Ten; RPI: 78; Non-conf. RPI: 57): After grabbing a win at Illinois last Saturday, the Golden Gophers made a huge jump. Tuesday night, they gave it all back with an abysmal performance at Michigan, where they lost by 28. The defeat was costly as it cost the Gophers a shot at a bye in the Big Ten Tournament. The Golden Gophers are 5-9 this season against the RPI Top 100. Three of those wins came at The Barn, where they defeated Ohio State, Wisconsin and now-out of the picture Northwestern. Minnesota’s nine-point triumph over Butler in Anaheim is useful, but the losses to Portland and Texas A&M that followed aren’t. Neither was the road loss at Miami days after the California trip. Losses to Indiana (in Bloomington) the Michigan sweep sting. Minnesota closes with a home game against Iowa Sunday, but beating the Hawkeyes won't mean much to the Committee. The Gophers need to make a run in Indianapolis.
St. Louis (19-10; 11-5 A-10; RPI: 93; Non-conf. RPI: 201): There are two reasons why the Billikens aren't closer to the field: their 5-7 road/neutral record, and the fact their best non-conference win came against Big 12 bottom feeder Nebraska. Still, SLU grabbed the four seed, and a bye, for the A-10 Tournament after Saturday's win at Dayton. They'll face the Rhode Island-St. Joseph's winner in Atlantic City on Friday.
Sunday
Florida at Kentucky, 12 p.m. ET (CBS)
Wisconsin at Illinois, 12 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Northern Iowa vs. Wichita State (Missouri Valley Championship), 2 p.m. ET (CBS)
VCU vs. Old Dominion (Colonial Semifinal No. 1), 3 p.m. ET (CSN New England/Comcast Network/CSS/Full Court)
Metro Atlantic Semifinal No. 1, 4:30 p.m. ET (MSG/MASN/FCS Atlantic/Full Court)
Iowa at Minnesota, 6 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network)
Portland vs. St. Mary's (West Coast Semifinal No. 2), 10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Things are a little clearer for several Bubble Watch teams after Saturday's action, as teams like UAB, UConn and Rhode Island didn't grab crucial wins, but Ole Miss, San Diego State and USF did.
Team statuses based on my Saturday update.
If a team's name appears as a link, click it to visit that school's SB Nation blog.
Three of these four teams were in action Saturday, but only San Diego State improved their chances.
Massachusetts 69, Rhode Island 67 (recap): The Rams simply could not afford to lose to a team of UMass' level this late.
San Diego State 61, Air Force 42 (recap): The Aztecs picked up an easy road win to close the regular season. You can read more about this one at our Mountain West Connection blog.
UTEP 52, UAB 50 (recap): The Blazers were in control for most of this one, but the Miners came through in the end at home.
USF improved its standing by toppling UConn. In the SEC, Mississippi State may be the SEC West champion, but their in-state rival may be in better position right now.
South Florida 75, Connecticut 68 (recap): The Bulls helped themselves out and wrecked the Huskies' chances in a two-hour span.
Mississippi 68, Arkansas 66 (recap): The Rebels aren't blowing opponents out right now, but they aren't losing either.
Tennessee 75, Mississippi State 59 (recap): The Volunteers got out to a 17-0 lead in Starkville, and the Bulldogs simply never recovered.
Arizona State, Memphis and Washington had good days, but the door is now closed to Dayton.
Memphis 75, Tulsa 53 (recap): The Tigers finished the Conference USA season strong, but that may not ultimately mean much because of their non-conference resume.
Arizona State 56, UCLA 46 (recap): The Sun Devils won again, meaning there is still hope for the Pac-10 to get two bids.
St. Louis 71, Dayton 66 (recap): An 8-8 Atlantic 10 record won't cut it for the Flyers. Three weeks ago, things may have been a different story.
Washington 82, Oregon State 70 (recap): The Huskies swept the Beavers to finish third in the Pac-10. They'll meet Craig Robinson's team again in Los Angeles Thursday.
Richmond 89, Charlotte 84 (recap): This loss was a fatal one for the 49ers.
Georgetown 74, Cincinnati 47 (recap): See above, just replace "Bearcats" with "49ers."
Seton Hall 92, Providence 80 (recap): Thanks to all of the carnage around them, the Pirates made a big jump with this win.
Old Dominion 86, Towson 56 (recap): The Monarchs advanced to the CAA semifinals on Sunday to keep their auto bid hopes alive.
Oklahoma State 74, Nebraska 55 (recap): The Cowboys handled the Cornhuskers to move themselves into better position.
Louisville 78, Syracuse 68 (recap): The Cardinals closed Freedom Hall with a potentially Tournament-clinching win.
Notre Dame 63, Marquette 60 (recap): The Irish solidified their spot, while Golden Eagle fans have to worry a bit.
Northern Iowa 57, Bradley 40 (Missouri Valley Semifinal) (recap): The Panthers can claim the Missouri Valley auto bid wit a win over Wichita State Sunday afternoon.
Virginia Tech Georgia Tech (recap): The Hokies picked up a huge win, while the Yellow Jackets are in big trouble.
Siena 78, Manhattan 61 (Metro Atlantic Quarterfinal) (recap): The Saints won a chippy affair to move to the MAAC semifinals.
California 71, Stanford 61 (recap): It wasn't pretty, but the Golden Bears finished the regular season with a win over their archrivals.
Utah State 81, New Mexico State 63 (recap): Utah State grabbed a resounding win, heading into the WAC Tournament in Reno.
Many conferences wrap up their regular seasons this weekend, while others have already jumped into tournament play. That means Saturday is a particularly busy day for the teams fighting for the last few spots in the NCAAs.
Team statuses are based on my Saturday morning bracket.
If a team's name appears as a link, click it to visit that school's SB Nation blog for more coverage and analysis.
Three of these four are in action, with the Rams and Aztecs visiting opponents they can't afford to lose to. UAB, meanwhile, would take a huge step back if they were swept by the Miners, considering Memphis already broke out the brooms against the Blazers this week.
Rhode Island at Massachusetts, 4 p.m. ET (Cox Sports New England)
San Diego State at Air Force, 9 p.m. ET (the mtn.): You can read more about this one at our Mountain West Connection blog.
UAB at UTEP, 9 p.m. ET (no TV)
Each team from this group is in action, with the Huskies and Bulls playing what amounts to an elimination game in Tampa.
Connecticut at South Florida, 2 p.m. ET (Big East Network/Full Court): Which UConn team shows up? The one that looked like world beaters against Villanova or West Virginia or the one that struggled mightily Wednesday at Notre Dame?
Mississippi at Arkansas, 4 p.m. ET (SEC Network/Full Court): The Rebels didn't slip up against LSU Thursday, but they need to finish strong on the road.
Tennessee at Mississippi State, 6 p.m. ET (ESPN): The Bulldogs can grab a win against one of the SEC's true powers before heading to Nashville for the conference tourney.
All four of these teams are in search for another win to move up the chain.
Tulsa at Memphis, 1 p.m. ET (CBS College Sports): The Tigers look to continue their recent good work in C-USA and potentially sew up the two seed in the league tourney to be held in Tulsa.
UCLA at Arizona State, 4 p.m. ET (CBS): The Sun Devils are another team with a shot to claim second seed for their conference tournament. To do so, they'll need to avenge a conference opening loss to the Bruins.
St. Louis at Dayton, 7 p.m. ET (WHIO/CSN Philly/CSN Washington+): If the Flyers had won the game in St. Louis, this one may have meant a bit more to them.
Washington at Oregon State, 8 p.m. ET (FSN Northwest): The Huskies have a slim shot at grabbing the Pac-10 two seed, but they have to win at Corvallis to do it. The Huskies won in Seattle during the opening week of the conference slate.
Charlotte at Richmond, 2 p.m. ET (no TV): A win over the Spiders alone won't put the 49ers back in the conversation, but it can give them some momentum heading into the A-10 Tournament.
Cincinnati at Georgetown, 12 p.m. ET (no TV): It's likely Austin Freeman won't play because of his recent diabetes diagnosis. That would give the Bearcats a better chance to grab a late win.
Seton Hall at Providence, 7 p.m. ET (no TV): The Pirates close the regular season against a Friar team that nearly knocked off Pitt Thursday and is ready to play spoiler.
Old Dominion vs. Towson (CAA Quarterfinal), 12 p.m. ET (Comcast Network/CSN New England/Full Court): If the Monarchs can make the CAA Final, they have a great chance at an at-large.
Nebraska at Oklahoma State, 1:30 p.m. ET (Big 12 Network/Full Court): Last Saturday, the Cowboys grabbed a big home win against Kansas. Dropping a home game to a bad Nebraska team would nearly undo all that good work.
Syracuse at Louisville, 2 p.m. ET (ESPN): If the Cardinals complete the sweep of the Orange, they'll move into the "Lock" category.
Notre Dame at Marquette, 2 p.m. ET (Big East Network/Full Court): The Fighting Irish would be in great position if they could grab a win in Milwaukee.
Northern Iowa vs. Bradley (Missouri Valley Semifinal), 2:30 p.m. ET (FS Midwest/CSN Chicago): With every game the Panthers win, the safer they get.
Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech, 4 p.m. ET (Raycom/Full Court): If you think the Yellow Jackets are a lock, you haven't been paying attention lately. They've dropped three of eight. The Hokies, on the other hand, snapped a three-game losing streak on Wednesday.
Manhattan vs. Siena (MAAC Quarterfinal No. 2), 4:30 p.m. ET (MSG/FCS Atlantic/Full Court): The Saints have to win the auto bid to dance.
California at Stanford, 6 p.m. ET (FSN/Comcast SportsNet): The Golden Bears are in decent shape for an at-large, but the Cardinal would love to end those hopes and make them earn the auto bid.
New Mexico State at Utah State, 9 p.m. ET (CW 30/Aggie Vision/Full Court): The Utah Aggies have already clinched the WAC regular season crown, but a win over their Las Cruces namesakes would help their at-large hopes.
Here is the updated look at how the NCAA Tournament field stacks up heading into the weekend. Click here for my Saturday morning bracket. My next projection will be released Sunday morning to reflect Saturday's conference championship games and other action.
Click any team name that appears as a link to visit that school's SB Nation blog.
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Mid-American, Mid-Eastern, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Southwestern, Summit, Sun Belt
West Coast: Gonzaga (lock)
Horizon: Butler (lock)
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa (somewhat safe)
Conference USA: UTEP (somewhat safe)
Pacific-10: California
Western Athletic: Utah State
Colonial: Old Dominion
Ivy: Cornell
Metro Atlantic: Siena
ACC: Duke*, Maryland, Clemson, Florida State
A-10: Temple*, Xavier, Richmond
Big East: Syracuse*, Villanova, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Georgetown
Big Ten: Purdue*, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Big 12: Kansas*, Kansas State, Baylor, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M
Horizon: Butler*
MWC: New Mexico*, BYU
SEC: Kentucky*, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
WCC: Gonzaga*
Teams with an asterisk own their respective conference's automatic bid.
ACC: Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech
Big East: Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame
Big Ten: Illinois
Big 12: Oklahoma State
C-USA: UTEP
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa*
MWC: UNLV
WCC: St. Mary's
Of this group, Illinois, Notre Dame, St. Mary's and Virginia Tech hold the most precarious positions. These four teams could find themselves among either the Last Four In or First Four Out as the clock ticks down .
That takes care of 61 of the 65 teams. (No, I didn't count wrong, locks Butler and Gonzaga and "work to do" clubs UNI and UTEP appear twice.) That leaves me to look at the last four teams in the field and the 12 who have varying chances at replacing them over the next week or so.
RPI data from Crashing The Dance and reflects games through Thursday, March 4. All records reflect games played against Division I opponents through Friday, March 5.
Last Four In
Florida (20-10; 9-6 SEC; RPI: 51; Non-conf. RPI: 71): On Wednesday. UConn's loss at the hands of Notre Dame and Mississippi State falling at Auburn helped move the Gators back in, but Florida's failure to beat Georgia in Athens and Vanderbilt in their home finale may yet haunt them, especially if they end up in the NIT for the third straight season. Billy Donovan's team is 3-7 against the RPI Top 50, but two of those wins came all the way back in November (at home against FSU and over Michigan State in Atlantic City). The other came last week against Tennessee in Gainesville. A 7-6 road/neutral record is OK, but likely to get worse, considering that a game at Kentucky is on the schedule for Sunday. Barring a huge win at Rupp, Florida may need to reach the SEC semifinals to get in.
Rhode Island (21-7; 9-6 A-10; RPI: 30; Non-conf. RPI: 3): The Rams haven't played well of late, but they could be turning the corner after their 22-point home win over Charlotte Wednesday night. Rhody's marquee non-conference win came against Oklahoma State, and they own respectable victories over Northeastern, Providence and Boston College. However, none of those three are likely to dance. Making matters worse is the fact the Rams' best league win is over Dayton, as they're 0-4 against Temple, Richmond and Xavier, the three A-10 teams who look to be in the best shape. The Rams will hope to meet at least one of them in the A-10 Tourney after their regular season finale Saturday at UMass.
San Diego State (19-8; 10-5 MWC; RPI: 32; Non-conf. RPI: 36):The Aztecs won their home finale Wednesday night over Colorado State, which was more than enough to keep them in, considering all of the losses that happened around them. At one point, SDSU was four points away from owning a 10-game win streak, as they lost to BYU by 2 at home and dropped a 2-point OT game at New Mexico. The Aztecs will wish they had those two games back, as they currently sit at 2-5 against the RPI Top 50 (both wins, over New Mexico and UNLV, came at home) with no opportunities left before the Mountain West Tournament. The Aztecs close the regular season with a road trip to hapless Air Force Saturday.
UAB (23-6; 11-4 C-USA; RPI: 41; non-conf. RPI: 18): The Blazers are in serious trouble now that Memphis swept them. They remain here because others (UConn, Mississippi State) lost Wednesday. However, they won't be able to rely on their early season home wins over lock Butler and fellow bubble team Cincinnati for much longer. UAB owns a 11-3 road/neutral record, but that’s a bit deceptive, as the losses came against three of their best four road opponents — Kent State, Memphis and Virginia. The Blazers really need to grab a win at UTEP Saturday. Otherwise, they may need to claim the auto bid next week in Tulsa.
Mississippi State (21-9; 9-6 SEC; RPI: 61; Non-conf. RPI: 75): So much for the idea that the SEC West leaders were starting to pull things together, as their three-game win streak ended at the hands of a very mediocre Auburn team Wednesday. The Bulldogs’ resume is a bit thin outside of their sweep of archrival (and fellow bubble team) Ole Miss, as a win over Old Dominion in South Padre is the non-conference highlight and losses at Western Kentucky and against Rider in Starkville are major blemishes. MSU really needs to grab a win at home against Tennessee Saturday, and probably a win or two in the SEC Tournament, to grab a place.
Mississippi (20-9; 8-7 SEC; RPI: 57; Non-conf. RPI: 35): The Rebels’ marquee win is better than archrivals' Mississippi State's, as they defeated Kansas State by 12 in Puerto Rico before Thanksgiving. Still, not managing to beat the Bulldogs once is an issue, considering that’s the difference in the race for the weaker division of the SEC. Three straight losses, with two coming at home, didn’t help. However, Ole Miss has won three straight, including Thursday's victory over laughingstock LSU, to get back on track. The Rebels close with a visit to Arkansas Saturday.
South Florida (18-11; Big East 8-9; RPI: 62; Non-conf. RPI: 69): The Bulls may have one last one run in them, as they survived a trip to DePaul Tuesday and now await a showdown with now-desperate UConn at the Sun Dome Saturday. USF looked like they had turned the corner with a four-game win streak in late January/early February, a run capped by a win at Georgetown on February 3. But that was a mirage, as they’ve since dropped four of seven, including an ugly 16-point loss to St. John’s at home on February 20. The Bulls seem to have an issue with playing to the level of their competition, as they’re 4-4 vs. the RPI Top 50, and 1-6 against teams rated between 51 and 100.
Connecticut (17-13; 7-10 Big East; RPI: 48; non-conf. RPI: 15): The Huskies have followed up a three-game win streak, including wins over West Virginia and Villanova with a home loss to Louisville and an absolutely embarrassing performance in a 58-50 loss at Notre Dame. That defeat means UConn is now 3-9 in road/neutral games with a trip to South Florida on deck for Saturday. The Huskies are also 3-9 in games against the RPI Top 50.
Dayton (19-10; 8-7 A-10; RPI: 42; Non-conf. RPI: 14): The Flyers will need to make a run in Atlantic City to go dancing. Their road/neutral record stands at 5-9 after Thursday night's setback at Richmond, a game the Flyers were in control of until the last 10 minutes. The Flyers' the best win coming against Georgia Tech in Puerto Rico way back on November 19 and the best true road victory came against George Mason on December 8. The Flyers close the regular season with a home game against St. Louis on Saturday.
Arizona State (21-9; 11-6 Pac-10; RPI: 54; Non-conf. RPI: 59): The Sun Devils loss at Cal on Saturday was doubly bad, as it kept them from grabbing an RPI Top 50 win and a share of the Pac-10 crown. The Sun Devils won the first game of their regular season-ending home set against L.A. schools, as they defeated USC Thursday. They can wrap up the two seed in the Pac-10 Tourney with a win over UCLA Saturday. They'll need it, as their only real hope is to win the Pac-10 Conference Tournament on March 13. Currently, the only win the Sun Devils can hang their hat on is a home victory over San Diego State on December 19, their lone top 50 win in six tries.
Washington (19-9; 9-7 Pac-10; RPI: 55; Non-conf. RPI: 27): The Huskies do own home wins over Texas A&M and Cal, but December losses at Texas Tech and against Georgetown in Anaheim are now missed opportunities in a weak bubble year. A sweep at the hands of tourney-ineligible USC doesn’t help either. In terms of building a late case, the Huskies’ schedule isn't exactly helpful. UW managed to win the first game of their closing road swing, beating Washington State to sweep the hoops Apple Cup. The Huskies aren't very good away from Hec Ed, as their road record stands at 3-7 after a win at Oregon Thursday. They can grab a fourth road win at Oregon State Saturday.
Memphis (22-8; 12-3 C-USA; RPI: 50: Non-conf. RPI: 96): The Tigers do own a 6-5 mark against the RPI Top 100; however, only two of those wins came against a Top 50 opponent, the sweep over UAB. Memphis' two best non-league wins came against IUPUI and Oakland. A 7-5 road/neutral mark is OK, but the best of those wins (after the win at UAB) came against Marshall and Tulsa. Josh Pastner's club fattened up on Division I's worst teams, going 15-2 against teams ranked 151+ in the RPI, losing at UMass and SMU. I wouldn't consider the Tigers an at-large candidate, but they can certainly steal a bid at the conference tournament in Tulsa. They already won there once and close the regular season at home Saturday against the Golden Hurricane.
Charlotte (19-10; 9-6 A-10; RPI: 59; Non-conf. RPI: 61): The 49ers loss to Rhode Island Wednesday was their fifth in six games and pretty much relegates them to the NIT. Bobby Lutz’s team will try to get to 20 victories when they visit Rhode Island and host Richmond, a team they already defeated at the Robins Center. Charlotte’s 9-7 road/neutral mark, featuring wins over the Spiders and Louisville, would have been a major boost, had they not lost their last two contests away from Halton Arena. Charlotte closes the regular season at home against Richmond Saturday.
Cincinnati (16-13; 7-10 Big East; RPI: 64; Non-conf. RPI: 37): The Bearcats close home loss to Villanova Tuesday night was their seventh in 10 games. The last time Mick Cronin’s team won a game against an opponent who’s a lock or near lock was a pair of wins Vanderbilt and Maryland in Maui. Cincy closes the regular season with one final chance to correct that flaw in their resume, as they visit inconsistent Georgetown Saturday. Still, they will now need to win a couple of games in the Big East Tournament to have a realistic shot.
Minnesota (17-12; 8-9 Big Ten; RPI: 78; Non-conf. RPI: 57): After grabbing a win at Illinois Saturday, the Golden Gophers made a huge jump. Tuesday night, they gave it all back with an abysmal performance at Michigan, where they lost by 28. The defeat was costly as it cost the Gophers a shot at a bye in the Big Ten Tournament. The Golden Gophers are 5-9 this season against the RPI Top 100. Three of those wins came at The Barn, where they defeated Ohio State, Wisconsin and now-out of the picture Northwestern. Minnesota’s nine-point triumph over Butler in Anaheim is useful, but the losses to Portland and Texas A&M that followed aren’t. Neither was the road loss at Miami days after the California trip. Losses to Indiana (in Bloomington) the Michigan sweep sting. Minnesota closes with a home game against Iowa Sunday, but beating the Hawkeyes won't mean much to the Committee. The Gophers need to make a run in Indianapolis.
Seton Hall (17-11; 8-9 Big East; RPI: 56; Non-conf. RPI: 76): Remember that string of four games at the end of 2009/start of 2010, where the Pirates lost heartbreakers, including OT games against West Virginia and Virginia Tech? Hall fans are undoubtedly wishing they’d won a couple of those right about now, as those wins would be major boosts to an OK resume. But they didn’t, meaning the Pirates own a 2-9 mark against the RPI Top 50 and a 4-7 road/neutral mark. Those stats aren’t major selling points. One thing Seton Hall has done this season is prove that they can lose to good teams, and they won’t get much of a chance to reverse that down the stretch. Tuesday, they beat Rutgers in the first of two late meetings, but they couldn't win their last game against a contender, as they fell at home to Marquette Sunday. The Pirates may as well start planning for the NIT, as Thursday's win at Rutgers and a final road game at Providence won't give them much of a bump.
Saturday
Old Dominion vs. Towson (Colonial Quarterfinal No. 1), 12 p.m. ET (CSN New England/Comcast Network/Full Court)
Tulsa at Memphis, 1 p.m. ET (CBS College Sports)
Nebraska at Oklahoma State, 1:30 p.m. ET (Big 12 Network/Full Court)
Syracuse at Louisville, 2 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Connecticut at South Florida, 2 p.m. ET (Big East Network/Full Court)
Notre Dame at Marquette, 2 p.m. ET (Big East Network/Full Court)
Northern Iowa vs. Bradley (Missouri Valley Semifinal No. 1), 2:30 p.m. ET (FS Midwest/CSN Chicago)
UCLA at Arizona State, 4 p.m. ET (CBS)
Rhode Island at Massachusetts, 4 p.m. ET (Cox Sports New England)
Mississippi at Arkansas, 4 p.m. ET (SEC Network/Full Court)
Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech, 4 p.m. ET (Raycom/Full Court)
Siena vs. Manhattan (Metro Atlantic Quarterfinal No. 2), 4:30 p.m. ET (MSG/FCS Atlantic/Full Court)
Tennessee at Mississippi State, 6 p.m. ET (ESPN)
California at Stanford, 6 p.m. ET (FSN/Comcast SportsNet)
St. Louis at Dayton, 7 p.m. ET (WHIO/CSN Philly/CSN Washington+)
Washington at Oregon State, 8 p.m. ET (FSN Northwest)
San Diego State at Air Force, 9 p.m. ET (the mtn.)
New Mexico State at Utah State, 9 p.m. ET (CW 30/Aggie Vision/Full Court)
Sunday
Florida at Kentucky, 12 p.m. ET (CBS)
Wisconsin at Illinois, 12 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Missouri Valley Championship, 2 p.m. ET (CBS)
Colonial Semifinal No. 1, 3 p.m. ET (CSN New England/Comcast Network/CSS/Full Court)
Metro Atlantic Semifinal No. 1, 4:30 p.m. ET (MSG/MASN/FCS Atlantic/Full Court)
Iowa at Minnesota, 6 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network)
TBD vs. St. Mary's (West Coast Semifinal No. 2), 10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
For quite awhile on Thursday night, it looked like the Dayton Flyers were going to grab a key road win at Richmond and sneak in. However, the Spiders prevailed to all but knock UD out of tournament contention, barring a run through the Atlantic 10 Tournament next week.
The other four bubble teams in action all grabbed wins; however, none was big enough to bump them into the field.
RPI data from Crashing The Dance and reflects games through Wednesday, March 3. All records reflect games played against Division I opponents through Thursday, March 4.
Florida (20-10; 9-6 SEC; RPI: 51; Non-conf. RPI: 72): On Wednesday. UConn's loss at the hands of Notre Dame and Mississippi State falling at Auburn help move the Gators back in, but their failure to beat Georgia in Athens and Vanderbilt in their home finale may yet haunt them, especially if they end up in the NIT for the third straight season. Billy Donovan's team is 3-7 against the RPI Top 50, but two of those wins came all the way back in November (at home against FSU and over Michigan State in Atlantic City). The other came last week against Tennessee in Gainesville. A 7-6 road/neutral record is OK, but likely to get worse, considering that a game at Kentucky is on the schedule for Sunday. Barring a huge win at Rupp, Florida may need to reach the SEC semifinals to get in.
Rhode Island (21-7; 9-6 A-10; RPI: 29; Non-conf. RPI: 3): The Rams haven't played well of late, but they could be turning the corner after their 22-point home win over Charlotte Wednesday night. Rhody's marquee non-conference win came against fellow bubble team Oklahoma State, and they own respectable victories over Northeastern, Providence and Boston College. However, none of those teams are locked in right now. Making matters worse is the fact the Rams' best league win is over Dayton, as they're 0-4 against Temple, Richmond and Xavier, the three A-10 teams who look to be in the best shape. The Rams will hope to meet at least one of them in the A-10 Tourney after their regular season finale Saturday at UMass.
San Diego State (19-8; 10-5 MWC; RPI: 32; Non-conf. RPI: 37):The Aztecs won their home finale Wednesday night over Colorado State, which was more than enough to keep them in, considering all of the losses that happened around them. At one point, SDSU was four points away from owning a 10-game win streak, as they lost to BYU by 2 at home and dropped a 2-point OT game at New Mexico. The Aztecs will wish they had those two games back, as they currently sit at 2-5 against the RPI Top 50 (both wins, over New Mexico and UNLV, came at home) with no opportunities left before the Mountain West Tournament. The Aztecs close the regular season with a road trip to hapless Air Force Saturday.
UAB (23-6; 11-4 C-USA; RPI: 42; non-conf. RPI: 18): The Blazers are in serious trouble now that Memphis swept them. They remain here because others (UConn, Mississippi State) lost Wednesday. However, they won't be able to rely on their early season home wins over lock Butler and fellow bubble team Cincinnati for much longer. UAB possesses a 11-3 road/neutral record, but that’s a bit deceptive, as the losses came against three of their best four road opponents — Kent State, Memphis and Virginia — none of whom are close to the field. The Blazers really need to grab a win at UTEP Saturday. Otherwise, they may need to claim the auto bid next week in Tulsa.
Mississippi State (21-9; 9-6 SEC; RPI: 58; Non-conf. RPI: 75): So much for the idea that the SEC West leaders were starting to pull things together, as their three-game win streak ended at the hands of a very mediocre Auburn team Wednesday. The Bulldogs’ resume is a bit thin outside of their sweep of archrival (and fellow bubble team) Ole Miss, as a win over Old Dominion in South Padre is the non-conference highlight and losses at Western Kentucky and against Rider in Starkville are major blemishes. MSU really needs to grab a win at home against Tennessee Saturday, and probably a win or two in the SEC Tournament, to grab a place.
Mississippi (20-9; 8-7 SEC; RPI: 55; Non-conf. RPI: 35): The Rebels’ marquee win is better than archrivals' Mississippi State's, as they defeated Kansas State by 12 in Puerto Rico before Thanksgiving. Still, not managing to beat the Bulldogs once is an issue, considering that’s the difference in the race for the weaker division of the SEC. Three straight losses, with two coming at home, didn’t help. However, Ole Miss has won three straight, including Thursday's victory over laughingstock LSU, to get back on track. The Rebels close with a visit to Arkansas Saturday.
South Florida (18-11; Big East 8-9; RPI: 61; Non-conf. RPI: 70): The Bulls may have one last one run in them, as they survived a trip to DePaul Tuesday and now await a showdown with now-desperate UConn at the Sun Dome Saturday. USF looked like they had turned the corner with a four-game win streak in late January/early February, a run capped by a win at Georgetown on February 3. But that was a mirage, as they’ve since dropped four of seven, including an ugly 16-point loss to St. John’s at home on February 20. The Bulls seem to have an issue with playing to the level of their competition, as they’re 4-4 vs. the RPI Top 50, and 1-6 against teams rated between 51 and 100.
Connecticut (17-13; 7-10 Big East; RPI: 48; non-conf. RPI: 14): The Huskies have followed up a three-game win streak, including wins over West Virginia and Villanova with a home loss to Louisville and an absolutely embarrassing performance in a 58-50 loss at Notre Dame. That defeat means UConn is now 3-9 in road/neutral games with a trip to South Florida on deck for Saturday. The Huskies are also 3-9 in games against the RPI Top 50.
Dayton (19-10; 8-7 A-10; RPI: 41; Non-conf. RPI: 13): The Flyers will need to make a run in Atlantic City to go dancing. Their road/neutral record stands at 5-9 after Thursday night's setback at Richmond, a game the Flyers were in control of until the last 10 minutes. The Flyers' the best win coming against Georgia Tech in Puerto Rico way back on November 19 and the best true road victory came against George Mason on December 8. The Flyers close the regular season with a home game against St. Louis on Saturday.
Arizona State (21-9; 11-6 Pac-10; RPI: 54; Non-conf. RPI: 59): The Sun Devils loss at Cal on Saturday was doubly bad, as it kept them from grabbing an RPI Top 50 win and a share of the Pac-10 crown. The Sun Devils won the first game of their regular season-ending home set against L.A. schools, as they defeated USC Thursday. They can wrap up the two seed in the Pac-10 Tourney with a win over UCLA Saturday. They'll need it, as their only real hope is to win the Pac-10 Conference Tournament on March 13. Currently, the only win the Sun Devils can hang their hat on is a home victory over San Diego State on December 19, their lone top 50 win in six tries.
Washington (19-9; 9-7 Pac-10; RPI: 50; Non-conf. RPI: 26): The Huskies do own home wins over Texas A&M and Cal, but December losses at Texas Tech and against Georgetown in Anaheim are now missed opportunities in a weak bubble year. A sweep at the hands of tourney-ineligible USC doesn’t help either. In terms of building a late case, the Huskies’ schedule isn't exactly helpful. UW managed to win the first game of their closing road swing, beating Washington State to sweep the hoops’ Apple Cup. The Huskies aren't very good away from Hec Ed, as their road record stands at 3-7 after a win at Oregon Thursday. They can grab a fourth road win at Oregon State on Saturday.
Memphis (22-8; 12-3 C-USA; RPI:50: Non-conf. RPI: 96): The Tigers do own a 6-5 mark against the RPI Top 100; however, only two of those wins came against a Top 50 opponent, the sweep over UAB. Memphis' two best non-league wins came against IUPUI and Oakland. A 7-5 road/neutral mark is OK, but the best of those wins (after the win at UAB) came against Marshall and Tulsa. Josh Pastner's club fattened up on Division I's worst, going 15-2 against teams ranked 151+ in the RPI, losing at UMass and SMU. I wouldn't consider the Tigers an at-large candidate, but they can certainly steal a bid at the conference tournament in Tulsa. They already won there once and close the regular season at home against the Golden Hurricane.
Charlotte (19-10; 9-6 A-10; RPI: 59; Non-conf. RPI: 61): The 49ers loss to Rhode Island Wednesday was their fifth in six games and pretty much relegates them to the NIT. Bobby Lutz’s team will try to get to 20 victories when they visit Rhode Island and host Richmond, a team they already defeated at the Robins Center. Charlotte’s 9-7 road/neutral mark, featuring wins over the Spiders and Louisville, would have been a major boost, had they not lost their last two contests away from Halton Arena. Charlotte closes the regular season at home against Richmond Saturday.
Cincinnati (16-13; 7-10 Big East; RPI: 65; Non-conf. RPI: 39): The Bearcats close home loss to Villanova Tuesday night was their seventh in 10 games. The last time Mick Cronin’s team won a game against an opponent who’s a lock or near lock was a pair of wins Vanderbilt and Maryland in Maui. Cincy closes the regular season with one final chance to correct that flaw in their resume, as they visit inconsistent Georgetown Saturday. Still, they will now need to win a couple of games in the Big East Tournament to have a realistic shot.
Minnesota (17-12; 8-9 Big Ten; RPI: 78; Non-conf. RPI: 60): After grabbing a win at Illinois Saturday, the Golden Gophers made a huge jump. Tuesday night, they gave it all back with an abysmal performance at Michigan, where they lost by 28. The defeat was costly as it cost the Gophers a shot at a bye in the Big Ten Tournament. The Golden Gophers are 5-9 this season against the RPI Top 100. Three of those wins came at The Barn, where they defeated Ohio State, Wisconsin and now-out of the picture Northwestern. Minnesota’s nine-point triumph over Butler in Anaheim is useful, but the losses to Portland and Texas A&M that followed aren’t. Neither was the road loss at Miami days after the California trip. Losses to Indiana (in Bloomington) the Michigan sweep sting. Minnesota closes with a home game against Iowa Sunday, but beating the Hawkeyes won't mean much to the Committee. The Gophers need to make a run in Indianapolis.
Seton Hall (17-11; 8-9 Big East; RPI: 63; Non-conf. RPI: 76): Remember that string of four games at the end of 2009/start of 2010, where the Pirates lost heartbreakers, including OT games against West Virginia and Virginia Tech? Hall fans are undoubtedly wishing they’d won a couple of those right about now, as those wins would be major boosts to an OK resume. But they didn’t, meaning the Pirates own a 2-9 mark against the RPI Top 50 and a 3-7 road/neutral mark. Those stats aren’t major selling points. One thing Seton Hall has done this season is prove that they can lose to good teams, and they won’t get much of a chance to reverse that down the stretch. Tuesday, they beat Rutgers in the first of two late meetings, but they couldn't win their last game against a contender, as they fell at home to Marquette Sunday. The Pirates may as well start planning for the NIT, as Thursday's win at Rutgers and a final road game at Providence won't give them much of a bump.
Friday
Northern Iowa vs. Drake (Missouri Valley Quarterfinal No. 1), 1 p.m. ET (FS Midwest/CSN Chicago)
Saturday
Old Dominion vs. Towson/UNC Wilmington (Colonial Quarterfinal No. 1), 12 p.m. ET (CSN New England/Comcast Network/Full Court)
Nebraska at Oklahoma State, 1:30 p.m. ET (Big 12 Network/Full Court)
Syracuse at Louisville, 2 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Connecticut at South Florida, 2 p.m. ET (Big East Network/Full Court)
Notre Dame at Marquette, 2 p.m. ET (Big East Network/Full Court)
Missouri Valley Semifinal No. 1, 2:30 p.m. ET (FS Midwest/CSN Chicago)
UCLA at Arizona State, 4 p.m. ET (CBS)
Rhode Island at Massachusetts, 4 p.m. ET (Cox Sports New England)
Mississippi at Arkansas, 4 p.m. ET (SEC Network/Full Court)
Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech, 4 p.m. ET (Raycom/Full Court)
TBD vs. Siena (Metro Atlantic Quarterfinal No. 2), 4:30 p.m. ET (MSG/FCS Atlantic/Full Court)
Tennessee at Mississippi State, 6 p.m. ET (ESPN)
California at Stanford, 6 p.m. ET (FSN/Comcast SportsNet)
St. Louis at Dayton, 7 p.m. ET (WHIO/CSN Philly/CSN Washington+)
Washington at Oregon State, 8 p.m. ET (FSN Northwest)
San Diego State at Air Force, 9 p.m. ET (the mtn.)
New Mexico State at Utah State, 9 p.m. ET (CW 30/Aggie Vision/Full Court)
Sunday
Florida at Kentucky, 12 p.m. ET (CBS)
Wisconsin at Illinois, 12 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Missouri Valley Championship, 2 p.m. ET (CBS)
Colonial Semifinal No. 1, 3 p.m. ET (CSN New England/Comcast Network/CSS/Full Court)
Metro Atlantic Semifinal No. 1, 4:30 p.m. ET (MSG/MASN/FCS Atlantic/Full Court)
Iowa at Minnesota, 6 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network)
TBD vs. St. Mary's (West Coast Semifinal No. 2), 10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Thursday night saw several Bubble Watch teams who are on the outside looking in (in my opinion) looking to grab key wins. All but one was successful.
If a team's name appears as a link, click it to visit that school's SB Nation blog for more coverage and analysis.
Positions based on my Thursday morning update.
Richmond 60, Dayton 56 (recap): The Flyers (19-10; 8-7 A-10) looked to be on their way, but the Spiders forced 20 turnovers and got hot from the perimeter in the second half to send UD to their seventh A-10 defeat. Dayton will now need to make a deep run in the conference tournament to advance.
Mississippi 72, LSU 59 (recap): It wasn't easy, but the Rebels (20-9; 8-7 SEC) defeated the Tigers to win their third straight. Chris Warren scored 22 for Ole Miss in the win.
Seton Hall 85, Rutgers 74 (recap): The Pirates (17-11; 8-9 Big East) swept the Scarlet Knights. Unfortunately for the Hall, those two wins are the only ones they've recorded in the last four games. A trip to Providence awaits on Saturday.
Arizona State 59, USC 54 (recap): The Sun Devils (21-9; 11-6 Pac-10) avenged an early conference season loss to the Trojans to move closer to wrapping up second seed for the conference tournament. All Arizona State needs to do is grab a home win over UCLA Saturday.
Washington 86, Oregon 72 (recap): Quincy Pondexter had a huge night for the Huskies (34 points, 10 boards) as they prevented the Ducks from grabbing a season sweep. The Huskies remain in third at 10-7 in the conference and 20-9 overall.
Since all of the teams I have in "Last Four In" group played either on Tuesday or Wednesday, Thursday's Bubble Watch action features several teams looking to move into the bracket.
If a team's name appears as a link, click it to visit that school's SB Nation blog for more coverage and analysis.
Positions based on my Thursday morning update.
Two of these teams are in action tonight, as Mississippi State lost to Auburn Wednesday and USF defeated DePaul Tuesday.
Dayton at Richmond, 7 p.m. ET (CBS College Sports): With a home game against St. Louis on the schedule for Saturday, this is the Flyers' last chance to grab an impressive road win. (A win at George Mason is the best on the resume right now.) Meanwhile, the Spiders will look to rebound from their tough double overtime loss to Xavier on Sunday. This is the only meeting between these two during the regular season, but if things break right, they may meet again in Atlantic City next weekend.
LSU at Mississippi, 9 p.m. ET (ESPN): The Rebels should grab an easy win over a Tiger team who has only won once during their SEC campaign. Obviously, that victory won't be much of a boost for Ole Miss' case. Back on January 23, Mississippi beat LSU by 10 in Baton Rouge.
Out of this group, UConn fell to Notre Dame on Wednesday.
Seton Hall at Rutgers, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN): The Pirates' chances have gotten better as others have lost, which is good as this game and Saturday's finale at Providence won't be much of boost for their computer numbers. The Hall picked up a 76-70 home win over the Scarlet Knights on February 23.
USC at Arizona State, 8:30 p.m. ET (FSN/Comcast SportsNet): As they're out of the running for the top seed in the Pac-10 Tournament, this weekend the Sun Devils are looking to sweep the L.A. schools to lock up the two seed in next week's conference tournament. ASU was swept in their trip to UCLA and USC over New Year's.
Washington at Oregon, 10 p.m. ET (no TV): The Huskies also look to avenge an early season loss, as they visit the Ducks, who won by 11 in Seattle on January 2. Washington can lock up a winning record in the conference with a win tonight. Keep in mind, this is the penultimate regular season game for the Ducks at historic Mac Court.
Wednesday night saw UConn's NCAA hopes suffer a major hit with an uninspiring loss at Notre Dame, who jumps above the "Last Four In" group thanks to their big win. Charlotte's chances are all but extinguished after Rhode Island pounded them in Atlantic 10 action. That win puts the Rams back in the field.
Florida also returns through the revolving door, as Mississippi State departs after a loss at Auburn.
RPI data from Crashing The Dance and reflects games through Tuesday, March 2. All records reflect games played against Division I opponents through Wednesday, March 3.
Florida (20-10; 9-6 SEC; RPI: 50; Non-conf. RPI: 75): UConn's loss at the hands of Notre Dame and Mississippi State falling at Auburn help move the Gators back in, but their failure to beat Georgia in Athens and Vanderbilt in their home finale may yet haunt them, especially if they end up in the NIT for the third straight season. Billy Donovan's team is 3-7 against the RPI Top 50, but two of those wins came all the way back in November (at home against FSU and over Michigan State in Atlantic City). The other came last week against Tennessee in Gainesville. A 7-6 road/neutral record is OK, but likely to get worse, considering that a game at Kentucky is next on the schedule. Barring a huge win at Rupp, Florida may need to reach the SEC semifinals to get in.
Rhode Island (21-7; 9-6 A-10; RPI: 32; Non-conf. RPI: 3): The Rams haven't played well of late, but they could be turning the corner after their 22-point home win over Charlotte Wednesday night. Rhody's marquee non-conference win came against fellow bubble team Oklahoma State, and they own respectable victories over Northeastern, Providence and Boston College. However, none of those teams are locked in right now. Making matters worse is the fact the Rams' best league win is over Dayton, as they're 0-4 against Temple, Richmond and Xavier, the three A-10 teams who look to be in the best shape. The Rams will hope to meet at least one of them in the A-10 Tourney after their regular season finale Saturday at UMass.
San Diego State (19-8; 10-5 MWC; RPI: 37; Non-conf. RPI: 39):The Aztecs won their home finale Wednesday night over Colorado State, which was more than enough to keep them in, considering all of the losses that happened around them. At one point, SDSU was four points away from owning a 10-game win streak, as they lost to BYU by 2 at home and dropped a 2-point OT game at New Mexico. The Aztecs will wish they had those two games back, as they currently sit at 2-5 against the RPI Top 50 (both wins, over New Mexico and UNLV, came at home) with no opportunities left before the Mountain West Tournament. The Aztecs close the regular season with a road trip to hapless Air Force Saturday.
UAB (23-6; 11-4 C-USA; RPI: 35; non-conf. RPI: 18): The Blazers are in serious trouble now that Memphis swept them. They remain here because others (UConn, Mississippi State) lost Wednesday. However, they won't be able to rely on their early season home wins over lock Butler and fellow bubble team Cincinnati for much longer. UAB possesses a 11-3 road/neutral record, but that’s a bit deceptive, as the losses came against three of their best four road opponents — Kent State, Memphis and Virginia — none of whom are close to the field. The Blazers really need to grab a win at UTEP Saturday. Otherwise, they may need to claim the auto bid next week in Tulsa.
Dayton (19-9; 8-6 A-10; RPI: 41; Non-conf. RPI: 14): After last Wednesday's awful loss at Temple, I said the revolving door was pretty much shut and locked (if you can do such a thing with a revolving door) for the Flyers. However, as Rhode Island and Charlotte both suffered damaging road losses Saturday and the Rams beat the 49ers Wednesday, Dayton still has some hope. UD’s road/neutral record stands at 5-8, with the best win coming against Georgia Tech in Puerto Rico way back on November 19 and the best true road victory coming against George Mason on December 8. The Flyers can better that Thursday at Richmond before closing the regular season with a home game against St. Louis on Saturday.
Mississippi State (21-9; 9-6 SEC; RPI: 54; Non-conf. RPI: 76): So much for the idea that the SEC West leaders were starting to pull things together, as their three-game win streak ended at the hands of a very mediocre Auburn team Wednesday. The Bulldogs’ resume is a bit thin outside of their sweep of archrival (and fellow bubble team) Ole Miss, as a win over Old Dominion in South Padre is the non-conference highlight and losses at Western Kentucky and against Rider in Starkville are major blemishes. MSU really needs to grab a win at home against Tennessee Saturday, and probably a win or two in the SEC Tournament, to grab a place.
Mississippi (19-9; 7-7 SEC; RPI: 53; Non-conf. RPI: 36): The Rebels’ marquee win is better than archrivals' Mississippi State's, as they defeated Kansas State by 12 in Puerto Rico before Thanksgiving. Still, not managing to beat the Bulldogs once is an issue, considering that’s the difference in the race for the weaker division of the SEC. Three straight losses, with two coming at home, didn’t help. However, the Rebels’ were able to beat Auburn Wednesday and Alabama Saturday to get back on track. The Rebels close with more SEC West SOS-crushing goodness, as they host LSU Thursday and visit Arkansas Saturday.
South Florida (18-11; Big East 8-9; RPI: 59; Non-conf. RPI: 67): The Bulls may have one last one run in them, as they survived a trip to DePaul Tuesday and now await a showdown with now-desperate UConn at the Sun Dome Saturday. USF looked like they had turned the corner with a four-game win streak in late January/early February, a run capped by a win at Georgetown on February 3. But that was a mirage, as they’ve since dropped four of seven, including an ugly 16-point loss to St. John’s at home on February 20. The Bulls seem to have an issue with playing to the level of their competition, as they’re 4-4 vs. the RPI Top 50, and 1-6 against teams rated between 51 and 100.
Connecticut (17-13; 7-10 Big East; RPI: 46; non-conf. RPI: 13): The Huskies have followed up a three-game win streak, including wins over West Virginia and Villanova with a home loss to Louisville and an absolutely embarrassing performance in a 58-50 loss at Notre Dame. That defeat means UConn is now 3-9 in road/neutral games with a trip to South Florida on deck for Saturday. The Huskies are also 3-9 in games against the RPI Top 50.
Washington (18-9; 8-7 Pac-10; RPI: 57; Non-conf. RPI: 26): The Huskies do own home wins over Texas A&M and Cal, but December losses at Texas Tech and against Georgetown in Anaheim are now missed opportunities in a weak bubble year. A sweep at the hands of tourney-ineligible USC doesn’t help either. In terms of building a late case, the Huskies’ schedule isn't exactly helpful. UW managed to win the first game of their closing road swing, beating Washington State to sweep the hoops’ Apple Cup. This week, a trip to the Oregon schools awaits. Keep in mind the Huskies are only 2-7 away from Hec Ed.
Seton Hall (16-11; 7-9 Big East; RPI: 63; Non-conf. RPI: 77): Remember that string of four games at the end of 2009/start of 2010, where the Pirates lost heartbreakers, including OT games against West Virginia and Virginia Tech? Hall fans are undoubtedly wishing they’d won a couple of those right about now, as those wins would be major boosts to an OK resume. But they didn’t, meaning the Pirates own a 2-9 mark against the RPI Top 50 and a 3-7 road/neutral mark. Those stats aren’t major selling points. One thing Seton Hall has done this season is prove that they can lose to good teams, and they won’t get much of a chance to reverse that down the stretch. Tuesday, they beat Rutgers in the first of two late meetings, but they couldn't win their last game against a contender, as they fell at home to Marquette Sunday. The Pirates may as well start planning for the NIT, as a road trip to Rutgers and Providence won't provide much of a bump.
Arizona State (20-9; 10-6 Pac-10; RPI: 55; Non-conf. RPI: 59): The Sun Devils loss at Cal on Saturday was doubly bad, as it kept them from grabbing an RPI Top 50 win and a share of the Pac-10 crown. The Sun Devils face home games against the L.A. schools this week, but their only real hope is to win the Pac-10 Conference Tournament on March 13. Currently, the only win the Sun Devils can hang their hat on is a home victory over San Diego State on December 19, their lone top 50 win in six tries.
Charlotte (19-10; 9-6 A-10; RPI: 58; Non-conf. RPI: 61): The 49ers loss to Rhode Island Wednesday was their fifth in six games and pretty much relegates them to the NIT. Bobby Lutz’s team will try to get to 20 victories when they visit Rhode Island and host Richmond, a team they already defeated at the Robins Center. Charlotte’s 9-7 road/neutral mark, featuring wins over the Spiders and Louisville, would have been a major boost, had they not lost their last two contests away from Halton Arena. Charlotte closes the regular season at home against Richmond Saturday.
Cincinnati (16-13; 7-10 Big East; RPI: 64; Non-conf. RPI: 38): The Bearcats close home loss to Villanova Tuesday night was their seventh in 10 games. The last time Mick Cronin’s team won a game against an opponent who’s a lock or near lock was a pair of wins Vanderbilt and Maryland in Maui. Cincy closes the regular season with one final chance to correct that flaw in their resume, as they visit inconsistent Georgetown Saturday. Still, they will now need to win a couple of games in the Big East Tournament to have a realistic shot.
Memphis (22-8; 12-3 C-USA; RPI: 60: Non-conf. RPI: 95): The Tigers do own a 6-5 mark against the RPI Top 100; however, only two of those wins came against a Top 50 opponent, the sweep over UAB. Memphis' two best non-league wins came against IUPUI and Oakland. A 7-5 road/neutral mark is OK, but the best of those wins (after the win at UAB) came against Marshall and Tulsa. Josh Pastner's club fattened up on Division I's worst, going 15-2 against teams ranked 151+ in the RPI, losing at UMass and SMU. I wouldn't consider the Tigers an at-large candidate, but they can certainly steal a bid at the conference tournament in Tulsa. They already won there once and close the regular season at home against the Golden Hurricane.
Minnesota (17-12; 8-9 Big Ten; RPI: 79; Non-conf. RPI: 60): After grabbing a win at Illinois Saturday, the Golden Gophers made a huge jump. Tuesday night, they gave it all back with an abysmal performance at Michigan, where they lost by 28. The defeat was costly as it cost the Gophers a shot at a bye in the Big Ten Tournament. The Golden Gophers are 5-9 this season against the RPI Top 100. Three of those wins came at The Barn, where they defeated Ohio State, Wisconsin and now-out of the picture Northwestern. Minnesota’s nine-point triumph over Butler in Anaheim is useful, but the losses to Portland and Texas A&M that followed aren’t. Neither was the road loss at Miami days after the California trip. Losses to Indiana (in Bloomington) the Michigan sweep sting. Minnesota closes with a home game against Iowa Sunday, but beating the Hawkeyes won't mean much to the Committee. The Gophers need to make a run in Indianapolis.
Thursday
Seton Hall at Rutgers, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Dayton at Richmond, 7 p.m. ET (CBS College Sports)
USC at Arizona State, 8:30 p.m. ET (FSN/Comcast SportsNet)
LSU at Mississippi, 9 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Friday
Northern Iowa vs. Drake/Southern Illinois (Missouri Valley Quarterfinal No. 1), 1 p.m. ET (FS Midwest/CSN Chicago)
Saturday
Old Dominion vs. Towson/UNC Wilmington (Colonial Quarterfinal No. 1), 12 p.m. ET (CSN New England/Comcast Network/Full Court)
Nebraska at Oklahoma State, 1:30 p.m. ET (Big 12 Network/Full Court)
Syracuse at Louisville, 2 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Connecticut at South Florida, 2 p.m. ET (Big East Network/Full Court)
Notre Dame at Marquette, 2 p.m. ET (Big East Network/Full Court)
Missouri Valley Semifinal No. 1, 2:30 p.m. ET (FS Midwest/CSN Chicago)
UCLA at Arizona State, 4 p.m. ET (CBS)
Rhode Island at Massachusetts, 4 p.m. ET (Cox Sports New England)
Mississippi at Arkansas, 4 p.m. ET (SEC Network/Full Court)
Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech, 4 p.m. ET (Raycom/Full Court)
TBD vs. Siena (Metro Atlantic Quarterfinal No. 2), 4:30 p.m. ET (MSG/FCS Atlantic/Full Court)
Tennessee at Mississippi State, 6 p.m. ET (ESPN)
California at Stanford, 6 p.m. ET (FSN/Comcast SportsNet)
St. Louis at Dayton, 7 p.m. ET (WHIO/CSN Philly/CSN Washington+)
Washington at Oregon State, 8 p.m. ET (FSN Northwest)
San Diego State at Air Force, 9 p.m. ET (the mtn.)
New Mexico State at Utah State, 9 p.m. ET (CW 30/Aggie Vision/Full Court)
Sunday
Florida at Kentucky, 12 p.m. ET (CBS)
Wisconsin at Illinois, 12 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Missouri Valley Championship, 2 p.m. ET (CBS)
Colonial Semifinal No. 1, 3 p.m. ET (CSN New England/Comcast Network/CSS/Full Court)
Metro Atlantic Semifinal No. 1, 4:30 p.m. ET (MSG/MASN/FCS Atlantic/Full Court)
Iowa at Minnesota, 6 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network)
TBD vs. St. Mary's (West Coast Semifinal No. 2), 10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Wednesday night saw several important Bubble Watch matchups, with UConn, Mississippi State and Charlotte suffering the most damaging defeats. Notre Dame is in better position, thanks to their win over the Huskies, while Rhode Island got a boost by defeating the 49ers.
UAB is in real trouble, however, as Memphis completed a season sweep of the Blazers by grabbing a victory at Bartow Arena.
If a team's name appears as a link, click it to visit that school's SB Nation blog for more coverage and analysis.
Team statuses are based on my Wednesday morning update.
Notre Dame 58, Connecticut 50 (recap): The Fighting Irish (20-10; 9-8 Big East) have a little more breathing room after they handled a Husky team (17-13; 7-10 Big East) who couldn't get things to click offensively Wednesday night in South Bend. Those records you see are indeed correct. UConn cannot even finish at .500 in the conference, with a game at USF remaining Saturday, while Notre Dame will grab their 10th league win if they are victorious at Marquette Saturday.
Auburn 89, Mississippi State 80 (recap): Just after jumping in my projection, the Bulldogs (21-9; 9-6 SEC) drop right back out after falling to a Tiger team that isn't even NIT material at the moment.
San Diego State 68, Colorado State 55 (recap) The Aztecs (19-8; 10-5 MWC) handled the Rams in their home finale. You can read more about this one at our Mountain West Connection blog.
Memphis 70, UAB 65 (recap): The Tigers (22-8; 12-3 C-USA) swept the Blazers (23-6; 11-4 C-USA), making Mike Davis' squad's position even more precarious. UAB's next challenge is a stiff one, as they visit regular season champion UTEP on Saturday.
Rhode Island 80, Charlotte 58 (recap): The Rams (21-7; 9-6 A-10) are in much better position after they got a big second half to blow out the 49ers (19-10; 9-6 A-10). Meanwhile, Bobby Lutz's team looks destined for the NIT.
Florida State 51, Wake Forest 47 (recap): The Demon Deacons (18-9; 8-7 ACC) lost their fourth straight, thanks to no points for Al-Faroq Aminu and 19 turnovers. That means they're in real trouble with a home game with Clemson looming on Sunday. The Seminoles, meanwhile, are in good shape at 21-8 and 9-6.
Virginia Tech 71, N.C. State 59 (recap): The Hokies (22-7; 9-6 ACC) snapped their three-game losing streak and gave themselves some breathing room with a trip to Georgia Tech on the slate for Saturday.
Texas A&M 76, Oklahoma State 61 (recap): The Aggies split the season series with the Cowboys, keeping Oklahoma State from locking down a bid.
Wednesday night is a crucial night for several Bubble Watch teams, including all of my "Last Four In" from this morning. Another highlight is an Atlantic 10 matchup between two teams currently on the outside looking in (that few will see).
If a team's name appears as a link, click it to visit that school's SB Nation blog for more coverage and analysis.
Connecticut at Notre Dame, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN): It's a battle between a resurgent 2009 Final Four team and a team that's pulled together without its star player. The Huskies are in need of a win after dropping a close decision at home to Louisville Sunday, while the Fighting Irish look for their third straight victory without Luke Harangody, They really don't get bigger than this one at this time of year.
Mississippi State at Auburn, 8 p.m. ET (SEC Network/Full Court): The Bulldogs jump into my projected bracket after Florida dropped their second straight. Miss. State's overall profile isn't quite as good as the Gators, but Rick Stansbury's team appears to be finishing strong, especially with Jarvis Varnado dominating inside. Tonight, the Bulldogs look to grab their fourth straight win and sweep the season series with the struggling Tigers.
Memphis at UAB, 9 p.m. ET (CSS): Since UTEP sewed up the Conference USA regular season crown last night, the Tigers and Blazers are playing for the two seed in the conference tournament. The Blazers are looking to avenge an 85-75 loss in Memphis on February 3.
Colorado State at San Diego State, 10:30 p.m. ET (the mtn.): The Aztecs wrap up their home schedule against a Rams team they beat by 12 in Fort Collins. Since SDSU is here mostly because of the failings of other teams, they can't afford a slip up. Our Mountain West Connection will have more on this contest.
Charlotte at Rhode Island, 7 p.m. ET (Cox Sports New England): The Rams are in slightly better position for a bid than the 49ers, but that could change if Bobby Lutz's team, who already owns a 9-6 road/neutral record, picks up a big win in Kingston.
Wake Forest at Florida State, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2): After three straight losses, including back-to-back setbacks at N.C. State and at home against North Carolina, the Demon Deacons are back on the bubble. If they lose this one, they can kiss their chances of a bye at the ACC Tournament goodbye.
N.C. State at Virginia Tech, 7 p.m. ET (No TV): The Hokies are in a similar situation to the Deacs. They've also dropped three straight and aren't exactly safe. But at least they get a home game to try to get back on track.
Oklahoma State at Texas A&M, 9 p.m. ET (ESPN2): The Cowboys can complete a resume-boosting season sweep of the Aggies, as they won the earlier meeting 76-69 in Stillwater.
Thanks to some significant losses Tuesday night, St. Mary's moves up the bracket and away from the "Last Four In" group. Cincinnati and Minnesota's chances all took a major hit, as did Florida's, as they fall into the "First Four Out." On the other hand, Mississippi State was the night's big winner, as they replace the Gators in the field for the moment.
RPI data from Crashing The Dance and reflects games through Monday, March 1. All records reflect games played against Division I opponents through Tuesday, March 2.
Notre Dame (19-10; 8-8 Big East; RPI: 68; Non-conf. RPI: 93): The Irish have figured out how to win without the still-injured Luke Harangody, crushing Pitt at home Wednesday, then pounding Georgetown in Washington on Saturday. Given that the Irish’s three setbacks without Harangody were by a total of six points, you have to imagine that Notre Dame would have won at least two of them if he was healthy. Expect the Committee to keep this in mind, especially as the All-Big East forward should return sometime in the next two weeks. The Fighting Irish’s closing stretch provides them with two more opportunities, as they close with UConn at home Wednesday and Marquette on the road Saturday. Notre Dame may need a split to stay in, thanks to home losses against Loyola Marymount, Rutgers and St. John’s; a lackluster 3-5 mark against RPI Top 50 teams (with two wins this week); and a not very good 3-7 road/neutral mark.
UAB (23-5; 11-3 C-USA; RPI: 35; non-conf. RPI: 17): The Blazers continue to hang in there just hanging on, thanks primarily to their early season home wins over lock Butler and fellow bubble team Cincinnati. After Wednesday’s win at UCF, UAB possesses a 11-3 road/neutral record, but that’s a bit deceptive, as the losses came against three of their best four road opponents — Kent State, Memphis and Virginia — none of whom are close to the field. The Blazers will have to close strong to stay in. Things started well with a home win over hapless Tulane, but the final week — featuring a home date with Memphis Wednesday and road trip to UTEP, who beat UAB at Bartow Arena, Saturday — is far more crucial.
Mississippi State (21-8; 9-5 SEC; RPI: 54; Non-conf. RPI: 76): The SEC West leaders are starting to pull things together, as they now own a three-game win streak after Saturday's win at South Carolina. The Bulldogs’ resume is a bit thin outside of their sweep of archrival (and fellow bubble team) Ole Miss, as a win over Old Dominion in South Padre is the non-conference highlight and losses at Western Kentucky and against Rider in Starkville are major blemishes. MSU’s only real shot at a resume-building win comes at home against Tennessee Saturday, but they can't get caught looking ahead at Auburn on Wednesday.
San Diego State (18-8; 9-5 MWC; RPI: 38; Non-conf. RPI: 39):The Aztecs didn't play this weekend, but they were the beneficiary of losses by Arizona State, Charlotte, Cincinnati and Rhode Island. At one point, SDSU was four points away from owning a 10-game win streak, as they lost to BYU by 2 at home and dropped a 2-point OT game at New Mexico. The Aztecs will wish they had those two games back, as they currently sit at 2-5 against the RPI Top 50 (both wins, over New Mexico and UNLV, came at home) with no opportunities left before the Mountain West Tournament. The Aztecs close the regular season with a winnable home game against Colorado State Wednesday and a road trip to hapless Air Force Saturday.
Florida (20-10; 9-6 SEC; RPI: 46; Non-conf. RPI: 75): The Gators are not here because of Tuesday night's loss to Vanderbilt, at least not by that defeat alone. The failure to beat Georgia in Athens may haunt this Florida team, especially if they end up in the NIT for the third straight season. Billy Donovan's team is 3-7 against the RPI Top 50, but two of those wins came all the way back in November (at home against FSU and over Michigan State in Atlantic City). The other came last week against Tennessee in Gainesville. A 7-6 road/neutral record is OK, but likely to get worse, considering that a game at Kentucky is next on the schedule. Barring a huge win at Rupp, Florida may need to reach the SEC semifinals to get in.
Dayton (19-9; 8-6 A-10; RPI: 41; Non-conf. RPI: 13): After Wednesday night's awful loss at Temple, I said the revolving door was pretty much shut and locked (if you can do such a thing with a revolving door) for the Flyers. However, as Rhode Island and Charlotte both suffered damaging road losses Saturday, Dayton still has some hope. UD’s road/neutral record stands at 5-8, with the best win coming against Georgia Tech in Puerto Rico way back on November 19 and the best true road victory coming against George Mason on December 8. The Flyers can better that Thursday at Richmond. Dayton then closes the regular season with a home game against St. Louis on Saturday.
Mississippi (19-9; 7-7 SEC; RPI: 53; Non-conf. RPI: 36): The Rebels’ marquee win is better than archrivals' Mississippi State's, as they defeated Kansas State by 12 in Puerto Rico before Thanksgiving. Still, not managing to beat the Bulldogs’ once is an issue, considering that’s the difference in the race for the weaker division of the SEC. Three straight losses, with two coming at home, didn’t help. However, the Rebels’ were able to beat Auburn Wednesday and Alabama Saturday to get back on track. The Rebels close with more SEC West SOS-crushing goodness, as they host LSU Thursday and visit Arkansas Saturday.
Rhode Island (20-7; 8-6 A-10; RPI: 34; Non-conf. RPI: 3): The Rams haven't played well of late. They snapped a three-game losing streak with a win over Fordham on February 20, took a week off, then promptly lost at St. Bonaventure. Rhody's marquee non-conference win came against fellow bubble team Oklahoma State, and they own respectable victories over Northeastern, Providence and Boston College. However, none of those teams are locked in right now. Making matters worse is the fact the Rams' best league win is over Dayton, as they're 0-4 against Temple, Richmond and Xavier, the three A-10 teams who look to be in the best shape. Wednesday's game at Charlotte looks to be a matchup for NIT seeding right now, and the Rams' regular season finale is at UMass, an opponent who won't help their computer numbers.
South Florida (18-11; Big East 8-9; RPI: 63; Non-conf. RPI: 67): The Bulls may have one last one run in them, as they survived a trip to DePaul Tuesday and now await a showdown with UConn at the Sun Dome Saturday. USF looked like they had turned the corner with a four-game win streak in late January/early February, a run capped by a win at Georgetown on February 3. But that was a mirage, as they’ve since dropped four of seven, including an ugly 16-point loss to St. John’s at home on February 20. The Bulls seem to have an issue with playing to the level of their competition, as they’re 4-4 vs. the RPI Top 50, and 1-6 against teams rated between 51 and 100.
Washington (18-9; 8-7 Pac-10; RPI: 57; Non-conf. RPI: 26): The Huskies do own home wins over Texas A&M and Cal, but December losses at Texas Tech and against Georgetown in Anaheim are now missed opportunities in a weak bubble year. A sweep at the hands of tourney-ineligible USC doesn’t help either. In terms of building a late case, the Huskies’ schedule isn't exactly helpful. UW managed to win the first game of their closing road trip, beating Washington State to sweep the hoops’ Apple Cup. This week, a trip to the Oregon schools awaits. Keep in mind the Huskies are only 2-7 away from Hec Ed.
Seton Hall (16-11; 7-9 Big East; RPI: 64; Non-conf. RPI: 77): Remember that string of four games at the end of 2009/start of 2010, where the Pirates lost heartbreakers, including OT games against West Virginia and Virginia Tech? Hall fans are undoubtedly wishing they’d won a couple of those right about now, as those wins would be major boosts to an OK resume. But they didn’t, meaning the Pirates own a 2-9 mark against the RPI Top 50 and a 3-7 road/neutral mark. Those stats aren’t major selling points. One thing Seton Hall has done this season is prove that they can lose to good teams, and they won’t get much of a chance to reverse that down the stretch. Tuesday, they beat Rutgers in the first of two late meetings, but they couldn't win their last game against a contender, as they fell at home to Marquette Sunday. The Pirates may as well start planning for the NIT, as a road trip to Rutgers and Providence won't provide much of a bump.
Charlotte (19-9; 9-5 A-10; RPI: 60; Non-conf. RPI: 61): Like Rhode Island, the 49ers have dropped four of their last five, following a three-game losing streak with a victory (at home over St. Joe's) and a defeat (at GW). Bobby Lutz’s team will try to get to 20 victories when they visit Rhode Island and host Richmond, a team they already defeated at the Robins Center. Charlotte’s 9-6 road/neutral mark, featuring wins over the Spiders and Louisville, is a major boost for their hopes. A sweep of Rhode Island and Richmond could put the 49ers back in the picture.
Arizona State (20-9; 10-6 Pac-10; RPI: 55; Non-conf. RPI: 59): The Sun Devils loss at Cal on Saturday was doubly bad, as it kept them from grabbing an RPI Top 50 win and a share of the Pac-10 crown. The Sun Devils face home games against the L.A. schools next week, but their only real hope is to win the Pac-10 Conference Tournament on March 13. Currently, the only win the Sun Devils can hang their hat on is a home victory over San Diego State on December 19, their lone top 50 win in six tries.
Cincinnati (16-13; 7-10 Big East; RPI: 58; Non-conf. RPI: 38): The Bearcats close home loss to Villanova Tuesday night was their seventh in 10 games. The last time Mick Cronin’s team won a game against an opponent who’s a lock or near lock was a pair of wins Vanderbilt and Maryland in Maui. Cincy closes the regular season with one final chance to correct that flaw in their resume, as they visit inconsistent Georgetown Saturday. Still, they will need to win a couple of games in the Big East Tournament to have a realistic shot.
Minnesota (17-12; 8-9 Big Ten; RPI: 72; Non-conf. RPI: 60): After grabbing a win at Illinois Saturday, the Golden Gophers made a huge jump. Tuesday night, they gave it all back with an abysmal performance at Michigan, where they lost by 28. The defeat was costly as it cost the Gophers a shot at a bye in the Big Ten Tournament. The Golden Gophers are 5-9 this season against the RPI Top 100. Three of those wins came at The Barn, where they defeated Ohio State, Wisconsin and now-out of the picture Northwestern. Minnesota’s nine-point triumph over Butler in Anaheim is useful, but the losses to Portland and Texas A&M that followed aren’t. Neither was the road loss at Miami days after the California trip. Losses to Indiana (in Bloomington) the Michigan sweep sting. Minnesota closes with a home game against Iowa Sunday, but beating the Hawkeyes won't mean much to the Committee. The Gophers need to make a run in Indianapolis.
Wednesday
Connecticut at Notre Dame, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Charlotte at Rhode Island, 7 p.m. ET (Cox Sports New England)
Mississippi State at Auburn, 8 p.m. ET (SEC Network/Full Court)
Oklahoma State at Texas A&M, 9 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Memphis at UAB, 9 p.m. ET (CSS)
Colorado State at San Diego State, 10:30 p.m. ET (the mtn.)
Thursday
Seton Hall at Rutgers, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Dayton at Richmond, 7 p.m. ET (CBS College Sports)
USC at Arizona State, 8:30 p.m. ET (FSN/Comcast SportsNet)
LSU at Mississippi, 9 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Friday
Northern Iowa vs. Drake/Southern Illinois (Missouri Valley Quarterfinal No. 1), 1 p.m. ET (FS Midwest/CSN Chicago)
Saturday
Old Dominion vs. Towson/UNC Wilmington (Colonial Quarterfinal No. 1), 12 p.m. ET (CSN New England/Comcast Network/Full Court)
Nebraska at Oklahoma State, 1:30 p.m. ET (Big 12 Network/Full Court)
Syracuse at Louisville, 2 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Connecticut at South Florida, 2 p.m. ET (Big East Network/Full Court)
Notre Dame at Marquette, 2 p.m. ET (Big East Network/Full Court)
Missouri Valley Semifinal No. 1, 2:30 p.m. ET (FS Midwest/CSN Chicago)
UCLA at Arizona State, 4 p.m. ET (CBS)
Rhode Island at Massachusetts, 4 p.m. ET (Cox Sports New England)
Mississippi at Arkansas, 4 p.m. ET (SEC Network/Full Court)
Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech, 4 p.m. ET (Raycom/Full Court)
TBD vs. Siena (Metro Atlantic Quarterfinal No. 2), 4:30 p.m. ET (MSG/FCS Atlantic/Full Court)
Tennessee at Mississippi State, 6 p.m. ET (ESPN)
California at Stanford, 6 p.m. ET (FSN/Comcast SportsNet)
St. Louis at Dayton, 7 p.m. ET (WHIO/CSN Philly/CSN Washington+)
Washington at Oregon State, 8 p.m. ET (FSN Northwest)
San Diego State at Air Force, 9 p.m. ET (the mtn.)
New Mexico State at Utah State, 9 p.m. ET (CW 30/Aggie Vision/Full Court)
Sunday
Florida at Kentucky, 12 p.m. ET (CBS)
Wisconsin at Illinois, 12 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Missouri Valley Championship, 2 p.m. ET (CBS)
Colonial Semifinal No. 1, 3 p.m. ET (CSN New England/Comcast Network/CSS/Full Court)
Metro Atlantic Semifinal No. 1, 4:30 p.m. ET (MSG/MASN/FCS Atlantic/Full Court)
Iowa at Minnesota, 6 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network)
TBD vs. St. Mary's (West Coast Semifinal No. 2), 10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Tuesday night was not a good one for several Bubble Watch teams, as Cincinnati and Minnesota all but assured themselves of places in the NIT, while Florida's hopes also took a damaging hit. The night's biggest winners are South Florida, even though they barely won at DePaul, and idle Mississippi State.
Team statuses are based on my Monday projection.
Villanova 77, Cincinnati 73 (recap): The Wildcats snapped a two-game road losing streak by holding off the Bearcats (16-13, 7-10 Big East) , who are now 3-7 in their last ten and in need of a Big East Tournament run.
Michigan 83, Minnesota 55 (recap): The Golden Gophers (17-12; 8-9 Big Ten) bubble burst in Ann Arbor, as the Wolverines swept the season series after an uninspiring performance by Tubby Smith's charges.
South Florida 63, DePaul 59 (recap): The Bulls (18-11; 8-9 Big East) didn't have an easy time in Rosemont, but they're in better shape thanks to the tumult above them. Saturday's home game against UConn looms large.
UTEP 80, Marshall 76 (recap) The Miners claimed the Conference USA regular season crown and staked their claim to an at-large with a hard-fought win over the Thundering Herd.
Vanderbilt 64, Florida 60 (recap): Florida's loss in Athens Saturday is looking more and more like a lost opportunity. This was the first time this season that the Gators (20-10; 9-6 SEC) lost a game they led with five minutes remaining. It didn't help matters that Florida only scored 5 (with no points from the field) in the last 8:24. At this point, UF needs to win at Kentucky or grab a couple at the SEC Tournament next week to get in.
Ohio State 73, Illinois 57 (recap): The Buckeyes used a big second half to pull away from the Fighting Illini (18-12; 10-7 Big Ten) and claim at least a share of the Big Ten crown. Given how well Ohio State's been playing lately, this wasn't an unexpected setback for Illinois. However, Saturday's home game Wisconsin looks more and more like a must-win for Bruce Weber's squad.
Marquette 69, Louisville 48 (recap): The Golden Eagles (20-9; 11-6 Big East) all but locked up a bid with a resounding home win over the Cardinals (19-11; 10-7 Big East). Louisville wraps up their regular season saturday with a home game against top-ranked Syracuse. Marquette hosts Notre Dame.
Monday night, there was only one game of any Bubble Watch importance. Utah State moved ever closer to claiming the WAC regular season title by blasting Fresno State, 76-39, in Logan. The Aggies can claim sole possession of the crown by grabbing a home win against New Mexico State Saturday.
Tuesday will be a bit busier as two of my First Four Out and one of my On The Fringe teams are in action. A few other teams who are in my Monday projection, but in need of key late season wins, are playing as well.
If a team's name appears as a link, click it to visit that school's SB Nation blog for more commentary and analysis.
Villanova at Cincinnati, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2): The Bearcats continue their quest for a late quality win as they face a Wildcat team that will surely be angry after Saturday's loss at Syracuse. Cincinnati is 3-6 in their last nine and must win tonight and at Georgetown on Saturday to reach .500 in the Big East.
Minnesota at Michigan, 7 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network): The Golden Gophers picked up a key win at Illinois Saturday, but need to win both of their games this week (Iowa on Sunday is the other) to finish above .500 in the Big Ten. However, given the quality of Minnesota's conference wins so far (Penn State twice, Indiana, Iowa and Northwestern with losses against Indiana, Michigan (at The Barn) and Northwestern), 10 may not be enough.
South Florida at DePaul, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPNU): Much like the Bearcats, the Bulls need to win twice this week to finish at 9-9 in the conference. But Marquette and Syracuse can tell Stan Heath how tough the trip to Rosemont can be.
UTEP at Marshall, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN): With a win in Huntington, the Miners will sew up the Conference USA regular season crown for themselves, before Saturday's finale against UAB.
Vanderbilt at Florida, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN): After Saturday's loss at Georgia (and with a game at Kentucky coming up on Sunday afternoon), this is an absolute must-win for the Gators. The good news for Florida is that the Commodores typically struggle in Gainesville.
Illinois at Ohio State, 9 p.m. ET (ESPN): If the Fighting Illini had beaten Minnesota Saturday, they would be in better shape than they are right now. A visit to Columbus to take on Evan Turner and the surging Buckeyes isn't quite what Illinois needs at the moment.
Louisville at Marquette, 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPNU): The winner of this one should basically lock up a bid, especially after big weekend road wins (UConn for the Cardinals and Seton Hall for the Golden Eagles), while the loser will still have a bit to do.
Here is the updated look at the NCAA Tournament field. Click here for my Saturday morning bracket. My next projection will be released before noon on Monday.
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Mid-American, Mid-Eastern, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Southwestern, Summit, Sun Belt
West Coast: Gonzaga (lock)
Horizon: Butler (lock)
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
Conference USA: UTEP
Pacific-10: California
Western Athletic: Utah State
Colonial: Old Dominion
Ivy: Cornell
Metro Atlantic: Siena
ACC: Duke*, Maryland, Clemson, Florida State, Wake Forest
A-10: Temple*, Xavier, Richmond
Big East: Syracuse*, Villanova, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Georgetown
Big Ten: Purdue*, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Big 12: Kansas*, Kansas State, Baylor, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M
Horizon: Butler*
MWC: New Mexico*, BYU
SEC: Kentucky*, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
WCC: Gonzaga*
Teams with an asterisk own their respective conference's automatic bid.
ACC:, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech
Big East: Louisville, Marquette, Connecticut
Big Ten: Illinois
Big 12: Oklahoma State
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa*
MWC: UNLV
SEC: Florida
Of this group, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Oklahoma State and Virginia Tech hold the most precarious positions. These five teams could find themselves among either the Last Four In or First Four Out as the clock ticks down .
That takes care of 61 of the 65 teams. (No, I didn't count wrong, locks Butler and Gonzaga and "work to do" club UNI appear twice.) That leaves me to look at the last four teams in the field and the 10 who have the best shot at replacing them over the next two weeks.
RPI data from Crashing The Dance and reflects games through Saturday, February 27. All records reflect games played against Division I opponents through Sunday, February 28.
St. Mary's (23-5: 11-3 West Coast; RPI: 46; Non-conf. RPI: 28): After dropping consecutive road games to Gonzaga and Portland, the Gaels really needed a BracketBuster game. However, they skipped the event this season since that would have resulted in a four-game road trip (as SMC was designated as an away team). An extra game would have helped a resume that already includes win over bubble teams Utah State (in Logan) San Diego State (at home) and a two-point loss against Vanderbilt before the Commodores went to Maui. A win over Gonzaga would have been helpful, but the Gaels will fight for a third shot at one in Las Vegas next week. The two could meet for the conference title on March 8.
Notre Dame (19-10; 8-8 Big East; RPI: 67; Non-conf. RPI: 90): The Irish have figured out how to win without the still-injured Luke Harangody, crushing Pitt at home Wednesday, then pounding Georgetown in Washington on Saturday. Given that the Irish’s three setbacks without Harangody were by a total of six points, you have to imagine that Notre Dame would have won at least two of them if he was healthy. Expect the Committee to keep this in mind, especially as the All-Big East forward should return sometime in the next two weeks. The Fighting Irish’s closing stretch provides them with two more opportunities, as they close with UConn at home and Marquette on the road. Notre Dame may need a split to stay in, thanks to home losses against Loyola Marymount, Rutgers and St. John’s; a lackluster 3-5 mark against RPI Top 50 teams (with two wins this week); and a not very good 3-7 road/neutral mark.
UAB (23-5; 11-3 C-USA; RPI: 35; non-conf. RPI: 17): The Blazers continue to hang in there just hanging on, thanks primarily to their early season home wins over lock Butler and fellow bubble team Cincinnati. After Wednesday’s win at UCF, UAB possesses a 11-3 road/neutral record, but that’s a bit deceptive, as the losses came against three of their best four road opponents — Kent State, Memphis and Virginia — none of whom are close to the field. The Blazers will have to close strong to stay in. Things started well with a home win over hapless Tulane, but the final week — featuring a home date with Memphis and road trip to UTEP, who beat UAB at Bartow Arena — is far more crucial.
San Diego State (18-8; 9-5 MWC; RPI: 39; Non-conf. RPI: 39):The Aztecs didn't play this weekend, but they were the beneficiary of losses by Arizona State, Charlotte, Cincinnati and Rhode Island. At one point, SDSU was four points away from owning a 10-game win streak, as they lost to BYU by 2 at home and dropped a 2-point OT game at New Mexico. The Aztecs will wish they had those two games back, as they currently sit at 2-5 against the RPI Top 50 (both wins, over New Mexico and UNLV, came at home) with no opportunities left before the Mountain West Tournament. The Aztecs close the regular season with a winnable home game against Colorado State Wednesday and a road trip to hapless Air Force Saturday.
Cincinnati (16-12; 7-9 Big East; RPI: 57; Non-conf. RPI: 41): The Bearcats continue to struggle, as they remain 5-7 in their last 12, and 2-4 in their last six, after they gave up a lead on the road and fell to West Virginia. The last time Mick Cronin’s team won a game against an opponent who’s a lock or near lock was a pair of wins Vanderbilt and Maryland in Maui. Cincy closes the regular season with two chances to correct that flaw in their resume. The Bearcats host Villanova Tuesday and visit inconsistent Georgetown Saturday.
Mississippi State (21-8; 9-5 SEC; RPI: 54; Non-conf. RPI: 77): The SEC West leaders are starting to pull things together, as they now own a three-game win streak after Saturday's win at South Carolina. The Bulldogs’ resume is a bit thin outside of their sweep of archrival (and fellow bubble team) Ole Miss, as a win over Old Dominion in South Padre is the non-conference highlight and losses at Western Kentucky and against Rider in Starkville are major blemishes. MSU’s only real shot at a resume-building win comes at home against Tennessee Saturday. They can't get caught looking ahead at Auburn on Wednesday.
Dayton (19-9; 8-6 A-10; RPI: 43; Non-conf. RPI: 13): After Wednesday night's awful loss at Temple, I said the revolving door was pretty much shut and locked (if you can do such a thing with a revolving door) for the Flyers. However, as Rhode Island and Charlotte both suffered damaging road losses Saturday, Dayton still has some hope. UD’s road/neutral record stands at 5-8, with the best win coming against Georgia Tech in Puerto Rico way back on November 19 and the best true road victory coming against George Mason on December 8. The Flyers can better that Thursday at Richmond. Dayton then closes the regular season with a home game against St. Louis on Saturday.
Minnesota (17-11; 8-8 Big Ten; RPI: 72; Non-conf. RPI: 60): After grabbing a win at Illinois Saturday, the Golden Gophers made a huge jump. Had they beaten Purdue, who played most of the game without Robbie Hummel, Wednesday night in Minneapolis, they'd be in. With Saturday's win, the Golden Gophers are now 5-9 this season against the RPI Top 100. Three of those wins came at The Barn, where they defeated Ohio State, Wisconsin and now-out of the picture Northwestern. Minnesota’s nine-point triumph over Butler in Anaheim is useful, but the losses to Portland and Texas A&M that followed aren’t. Neither was the road loss at Miami days after the California trip. Losses to Indiana (in Bloomington) and Michigan (at home) sting, but the Gophers avenged the IU loss and can avenge the loss to the Wolverines on Wednesday in Ann Arbor. Minnesota closes with a home game against Iowa Sunday.
Mississippi (19-9; 7-7 SEC; RPI: 53; Non-conf. RPI: 36): The Rebels’ marquee win is better than archrivals' Mississippi State's, as they defeated Kansas State by 12 in Puerto Rico before Thanksgiving. Still, not managing to beat the Bulldogs’ once is an issue, considering that’s the difference in the race for the weaker division of the SEC. Three straight losses, with two coming at home, didn’t help. However, the Rebels’ were able to beat Auburn Wednesday and Alabama Saturday to get back on track. The Rebels close with more SEC West SOS-crushing goodness, as they host LSU Thursday and visit Arkansas Saturday.
Washington (18-9; 8-7 Pac-10; RPI: 59; Non-conf. RPI: 27): The Huskies do own home wins over Texas A&M and Cal, but December losses at Texas Tech and against Georgetown in Anaheim are now missed opportunities in a weak bubble year. A sweep at the hands of tourney-ineligible USC doesn’t help either. In terms of building a late case, the Huskies’ schedule isn't exactly helpful. UW managed to win the first game of their closing road trip, beating Washington State to sweep the hoops’ Apple Cup. Next week, a trip to the Oregon schools awaits. Keep in mind the Huskies are only 2-7 away from Hec Ed.
Seton Hall (16-11; 7-9 Big East; RPI: 50; Non-conf. RPI: 76): Remember that string of four games at the end of 2009/start of 2010, where the Pirates lost heartbreakers, including OT games against West Virginia and Virginia Tech? Hall fans are undoubtedly wishing they’d won a couple of those right about now, as those wins would be major boosts to an OK resume. But they didn’t, meaning the Pirates own a 2-9 mark against the RPI Top 50 and a 3-7 road/neutral mark. Those stats aren’t major selling points. One thing Seton Hall has done this season is prove that they can lose to good teams, and they won’t get much of a chance to reverse that down the stretch. Tuesday, they beat Rutgers in the first of two late meetings, but they couldn't win their last game against a contender, as they fell at home to Marquette Sunday. The Pirates may as well start planning for the NIT, as a road trip to Rutgers and Providence won't provide much of a bump.
Rhode Island (20-7; 8-6 A-10; RPI: 33; Non-conf. RPI: 3): The Rams haven't played well of late. They snapped a three-game losing streak with a win over Fordham on February 20, took a week off, then promptly lost at St. Bonaventure. Rhody's marquee non-conference win came against fellow bubble team Oklahoma State, and they own respectable victories over Northeastern, Providence and Boston College. However, none of those teams are locked in right now. Making matters worse is the fact the Rams' best league win is over Dayton, as they're 0-4 against Temple, Richmond and Xavier, the three A-10 teams who look to be in the best shape. Wednesday's game at Charlotte looks to be a matchup for NIT seeding right now, and the Rams' regular season finale is at UMass, an opponent who won't help their computer numbers.
Arizona State (20-9; 10-6 Pac-10; RPI: 55; Non-conf. RPI: 59): The Sun Devils loss at Cal on Saturday was doubly bad, as it kept them from grabbing an RPI Top 50 win and a share of the Pac-10 crown. The Sun Devils face home games against the L.A. schools next week, but their only real hope is to win the Pac-10 Conference Tournament on March 13. Currently, the only win the Sun Devils can hang their hat on is a home victory over San Diego State on December 19, their lone top 50 win in six tries.
Charlotte (19-9; 9-5 A-10; RPI: 61; Non-conf. RPI: 61): Like Rhode Island, the 49ers have dropped four of their last five, following a three-game losing streak with a victory (at home over St. Joe's) and a defeat (at GW). Bobby Lutz’s team will try to get to 20 victories when they visit Rhode Island and host Richmond, a team they already defeated at the Robins Center. Charlotte’s 9-6 road/neutral mark, featuring wins over the Spiders and Louisville, is a major boost for their hopes. A sweep of Rhode Island and Richmond could put the 49ers back in the picture.
South Florida (17-11; Big East 7-9; RPI: 64; Non-conf. RPI: 67): The Bulls looked like they had turned the corner with a four-game win streak in late January/early February, a run capped by a win at Georgetown on February 3. But that was a mirage, as they’ve since dropped four of six, including an ugly 16-point loss to St. John’s at home on February 20. The Bulls seem to have an issue with playing to the level of their competition, as they’re 4-4 vs. the RPI Top 50, and 1-6 against teams rated between 51 and 100. USF couldn’t grab another marquee road win last week, as they were hammered at Villanova Wednesday, but they did rebound with an exciting home win over Providence Saturday. The Bulls close with a roadie at DePaul and home game with a UConn team who could be desperate for a win.
Monday
Fresno State at Utah State, 9 p.m. ET (CSN California/Full Court)
Tuesday
Vanderbilt at Florida, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Villanova at Cincinnati, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Minnesota at Michigan, 7 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network)
South Florida at DePaul, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPNU)
Illinois at Ohio State, 9 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Louisville at Marquette, 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPNU)
Wednesday
Connecticut at Notre Dame, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Charlotte at Rhode Island, 7 p.m. ET (Cox Sports New England)
Mississippi State at Auburn, 8 p.m. ET (SEC Network/Full Court)
Oklahoma State at Texas A&M, 9 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Memphis at UAB, 9 p.m. ET (CSS)
Colorado State at San Diego State, 10:30 p.m. ET (the mtn.)
Thursday
Seton Hall at Rutgers, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Dayton at Richmond, 7 p.m. ET (CBS College Sports)
USC at Arizona State, 8:30 p.m. ET (FSN/Comcast SportsNet)
LSU at Mississippi, 9 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Friday
Northern Iowa vs. Drake/Southern Illinois (Missouri Valley Quarterfinal No. 1), 1 p.m. ET (FS Midwest/CSN Chicago)
Saturday
Old Dominion vs. Towson/UNC Wilmington (Colonial Quarterfinal No. 1), 12 p.m. ET (CSN New England/Comcast Network/Full Court)
Nebraska at Oklahoma State, 1:30 p.m. ET (Big 12 Network/Full Court)
Syracuse at Louisville, 2 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Connecticut at South Florida, 2 p.m. ET (Big East Network/Full Court)
Notre Dame at Marquette, 2 p.m. ET (Big East Network/Full Court)
Missouri Valley Semifinal No. 1, 2:30 p.m. ET (FS Midwest/CSN Chicago)
UCLA at Arizona State, 4 p.m. ET (CBS)
Rhode Island at Massachusetts, 4 p.m. ET (Cox Sports New England)
Mississippi at Arkansas, 4 p.m. ET (SEC Network/Full Court)
Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech, 4 p.m. ET (Raycom/Full Court)
TBD vs. Siena (Metro Atlantic Quarterfinal No. 2), 4:30 p.m. ET (MSG/FCS Atlantic/Full Court)
Tennessee at Mississippi State, 6 p.m. ET (ESPN)
California at Stanford, 6 p.m. ET (FSN/Comcast SportsNet)
St. Louis at Dayton, 7 p.m. ET (WHIO/CSN Philly/CSN Washington+)
Washington at Oregon State, 8 p.m. ET (FSN Northwest)
San Diego State at Air Force, 9 p.m. ET (the mtn.)
New Mexico State at Utah State, 9 p.m. ET (CW 30/Aggie Vision/Full Court)
Sunday
Florida at Kentucky, 12 p.m. ET (CBS)
Wisconsin at Illinois, 12 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Missouri Valley Championship, 2 p.m. ET (CBS)
Colonial Semifinal No. 1, 3 p.m. ET (CSN New England/Comcast Network/CSS/Full Court)
Metro Atlantic Semifinal No. 1, 4:30 p.m. ET (MSG/MASN/FCS Atlantic/Full Court)
Iowa at Minnesota, 6 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network)
TBD vs. St. Mary's (West Coast Semifinal No. 2), 10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
There were two significant Big East Bubble Watch games on Sunday afternoon, and Marquette and Louisville are now in much better shape because of them.
Marquette 84, Seton Hall 83 (OT) (recap): After a Seton Hall rally forced an extra session, the Golden Eagles grabbed their 19th win and 10th in the conference with a thrilling win over the Pirates, whose hopes are now on life support. Marquette can all but solidify a bid with home wins over Louisville and Notre Dame to close the regular season. Seton Hall will need to win to beat a quality opponent in the Big East Tournament and hope, as they close with Rutgers and Providence.
Louisville 78, Connecticut 76 (recap): The Cardinals also had to rally, but they managed to get the win and sweep the season series with the Huskies, ending UConn's three-game win streak. Thanks to other results this weekend, the Huskies remain in my projection for the moment, but they won't for long if they can't bounce back from this loss. Games at Notre Dame and South Florida will be true tests for them. The Cardinals also won't have it easy, as they travel to Marquette and host revenge-seeking Syracuse, who could very well be ranked number one heading into Freedom Hall.
With so many teams from my Friday Bubble Watch update (and a few others) in action on Saturday. there will be a few changes to my Monday bracket. As a preview, I'll post a new update Sunday evening, after the conclusion of the gold medal hockey game and the day's two Big East bubble matchups.
Marquette at Seton Hall, 12 p.m. ET (Big East Network/Full Court): The Golden Eagles are looking to solidify their place, while the Pirates can move out of the "On The Fringe" group with a big home win.
Louisville at Connecticut, 2 p.m. ET (CBS): The Huskies can get to .500 in the Big East if they can avenge their 13-point loss to the Cardinals at Freedom Hall.
Here's a look back at what happened on Saturday. If a team's name appears as a link, click it to visit that school's SB Nation blog for more coverage and analysis.
All four teams are in action this afternoon, with three involved in favorable matchups.
St. Bonaventure 81, Rhode Island 74 (recap): Jim Baron's club visited his alma mater today and left with a damaging loss. After four losses in five games, the Rams are now on the outside looking in.
UAB 76, Tulane 55 (recap): While it wasn't a great opponent, the Blazers were able to grab an impressive win, something not many teams who are just hanging on couldn't do Saturday.
Oklahoma State 85, No. 1 Kansas 77 (recap): Jayhawk fans hope that this result means a repeat of 2008 is in the cards. Cowboy fans hope this win means they're safer. I can answer the latter group. Oklahoma State is in much better shape with this win than they were 24 hours ago.
George Washington 75, Charlotte 70 (recap): The 49ers stay as a 13 in my Saturday bracket will be a short one, as an ugly road loss at the Smith Center all but knocks them out of the running. Wednesday's game at Rhody looks like it will be for NIT seeding.
San Diego State was off Saturday, but they're in better position because of the carnage that took place elsewhere in the country.
Notre Dame 78, No. 11 Georgetown 64 (recap): The Irish are back in the picture as they followed up Wednesday's easy home win over Pitt with a dominating road victory over the Hoyas. More impressive is the fact that Notre Dame has learned to play without Luke Harangody. Games with UConn in South Bend Wednesday and at Marquette Saturday look very important now.
No. 8 West Virginia 74, Cincinnati 68 (recap): The Bearcats are still looking for a quality late-season win after the Mountaineers came back in Morgantown. Cincy gets two chances this week, Villanova at home and inconsistent Georgetown in D.C.
California 62, Arizona State 46 (recap): The Golden Bears swept the Sun Devils to claim at least a share of the Pac-10 regular season title and the top seed in the conference tournament. Given Cal's high RPI and the early injury to Theo Robertson, they look to be in good shape for an at-large. But if they win in L.A. in two weeks, they'll likely be the league's lone rep.
Mississippi 76, Alabama 73 (recap): The Rebels didn't look that impressive in picking up the win in Tuscaloosa. They'll have to really make a statement in their remaining games (LSU, at Arkansas) to get closer, especially given the quality of opponent.
Mississippi State 76, South Carolina 63 (recap): Jarvis Varnado (19 pts., 12 boards) led the Bulldogs to their third straight win. They now own a two-game lead on Arkansas and Ole Miss in the weak SEC West.
Dayton 96, Massachusetts 68 (recap): The Flyers have a pulse after putting on an offensive show at home against the struggling Minutemen.
Washington 59, Washington State 52 (recap) The Huskies remain in the conversation after sweeping the season series with the Cougars. A road trip to the Oregon schools awaits.
The two teams from this group who were in action Saturday grabbed big wins. Seton Hall will look to do the same against Marquette Sunday.
South Florida 97, Providence 93 (recap): One down, two to go for the Bulls in their quest to reach .500 in the Big East. These two really need to play more often, between this contest and the 109-105 USF OT win in Providence earlier in the season.
Minnesota 62, Illinois 60 (recap): As I discussed with Hail To The Orange Friday, the Illini needed this one with games against Ohio State and Wisconsin to come. They didn't get it. Illinois stays in for the moment, and the Golden Gophers edge closer to the field. Minnesota can't afford to slip up against Michigan and Iowa, however.
Other Games Of Bubble Note
Old Dominion 73, VCU 70 (recap): The Monarchs beat the Rams, avenging a loss in Richmond. Blaine Taylor's squad has the number one seed for the CAA Tournament next weekend.
Maryland 104, Virginia Tech 100 (2OT) (recap): This one was delayed by three hours because of some water main breaks uncovered when a beer truck struck a fire hydrant not far from Cassell Coliseum. The wait was worth it for the Terps, who won a thriller to all but lock up a bid. The Hokies' margin of error just shrunk again, however.
Georgia 78, Florida 76 (recap): The Bulldogs very nearly choked a lead away for the second straight game, but Gator senior Dan Werner tried to pass when he had an open look from 15 feet away. The pass was knocked out of bounds and the Bulldogs prevailed, meaning UF must beat Vanderbilt Wednesday. Kentucky, next Sunday's opponent, isn't the team to face to close out the regular season needing a win.
Of the 15 teams I have listed in Friday's Bubble Watch update, 13 are in action on Saturday. Plus, there are a few other games on the schedule that could result in teams falling down to this group.
Be sure to check out my new pre-weekend bracket, which will be updated again on Monday.
If a team's name is a link, click it to visit that school's SB Nation blog for more coverage and analysis.
All four teams are in action this afternoon, with three involved in favorable matchups.
Rhode Island at St. Bonaventure, 2 p.m. ET (no TV): The Rams visit head coach Jim Baron's alma mater (and former employer) looking for their second straight win. Rhody can't get caught looking ahead to Wednesday's crucial home game against Charlotte.
Tulane at UAB, 2 p.m. ET (no TV): The Green Wave own only two Conference USA wins this season, both coming over Rice. Playing at Bartow Arena, the Blazers should be able to win their fourth straight.
No. 1 Kansas at Oklahoma State, 4 p.m. ET (CBS): The Cowboys face the biggest challenge of the Last Four In, but a little more than two years ago, they were able to stun the Jayhawks, a team en route to a National Championship.
Charlotte at George Washington, 6 p.m. ET (MASN): The 49ers won a close home game against the Colonials on February 3. They go for the sweep this evening, and look to ride a two-game win streak heading into Wednesday's clash in Kingston.
San Diego State is off this weekend, meaning they can't make a case to jump back in until their closing stretch against Colorado State and Air Force next week. The other three teams all face stiff tests.
Notre Dame at No. 11 Georgetown, 12 p.m. ET (CBS Regional): The Irish look to follow up on Wednesday's big home win over Pitt with an even bigger road win, but they'll probably have to do it without Luke Harangody.
Cincinnati at No. 8 West Virginia, 2 p.m. ET (Big East Network/Full Court): The Bearcats also hit the road looking for a marquee win. Mick Cronin's team hasn't beaten a team that's safely in since Maui.
Arizona State at California, 3 p.m. ET (FSN/Comcast SportsNet): The Golden Bears can all but wrap up the Pac-10 regular season crown, and seriously boost their at-large chances in case they fail to win the conference tournament in Los Angeles in two weeks. The Sun Devils can boost their own case for an at-large by grabbing a second Top 50 RPI win.
All of these teams are in action, but none faces an opponent who can really boost the resume.
Mississippi at Alabama, 2 p.m. ET (ESPN2): The Rebels look to replicate the effort of their in-state rivals, who beat the Tide Wednesday night.
Mississippi State at South Carolina, 6 p.m. ET (ESPN): It's the first of two road games for the Bulldogs before a key home clash against Tennessee in seven days' time.
Massachusetts at Dayton, 7 p.m. ET (WHIO/CSN Regional): The Flyers will hope to score a few more points than they did against Temple Wednesday night.
Washington at Washington State, 10 p.m. ET (FSN Northwest/FCS Pacific): The Cougars would love nothing more than to knock the Huskies down to .500 in the Pac-10, which would probably end their at-large hopes, as next week's road trip to Oregon and Oregon State won't provide a resume boost.
Of this group, two teams are in action Saturday. Seton Hall hosts Marquette on Sunday.
Providence at South Florida, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN360): The Bulls look to sweep the Friars and keep hopes of a .500 Big East record alive.
Minnesota at Illinois, 8 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network): The Golden Gophers missed their chance against Purdue Wednesday night. With games against Michigan and Iowa coming up, this is their last opportunity before the Big Ten Tournament. The Illini on the other hand need this one as well, considering they visit Ohio State and host Wisconsin to close.
Key CAA and ACC battles, and a tricky road game for the last SEC team in, are also on the Saturday schedule.
VCU at Old Dominion, 4 p.m. ET (CSN Regional): The Monarchs look to avenge a 70-58 road loss to the Rams and sew up the CAA regular season crown.
Maryland at Virginia Tech, 4 p.m. 6:30 p.m. ET (Raycom Regional/Full Court: Check Local Listings): The Terps can lock up a big with a win in Blacksburg, while the Hokies really need a win after Wednesday's embarrassing loss to Boston College. NOTE: This one has been delayed by a water main break. Local affiliates will determine TV coverage.
Florida at Georgia, 4 p.m. ET (SEC Network/Full Court): The Bulldogs, who fell apart in the final moments of regulation at Vanderbilt on Thursday, host a Gator team who can't get caught looking ahead to a tough closing week (Vanderbilt, at Kentucky).
Here is the updated look at the NCAA Tournament field, click here for my Saturday morning bracket.
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Mid-American, Mid-Eastern, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Southwestern, Summit, Sun Belt
West Coast: Gonzaga (lock)
Horizon: Butler (lock)
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
Conference USA: UTEP
Pacific-10: California
Western Athletic: Utah State
Colonial: Old Dominion
Ivy: Cornell
Metro Atlantic: Siena
Locks (27)
ACC: Duke*, Wake Forest
A-10: Temple*, Richmond, Xavier
Big East: Syracuse*, Villanova, West Virginia, Georgetown, Pittsburgh
Big Ten: Purdue*, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Big 12: Kansas*, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas, Texas A&M, Missouri
Horizon: Butler*
MWC: New Mexico*, BYU
SEC: Kentucky*, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
WCC: Gonzaga*
Teams with an asterisk own their respective conference's automatic bid.
ACC: Maryland, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Virginia Tech
Big East: Louisville, Marquette, Connecticut
Big Ten: Illinois
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa*
MWC: UNLV
SEC: Florida
WCC: St. Mary's
Of this group, Connecticut, Louisville, Marquette, St. Mary's and Virginia Tech hold the most precarious positions. These four teams could find themselves among either the Last Four In or First Four Out as the clock ticks down .
That takes care of 61 of the 65 teams. (No, I didn't count wrong, locks Butler and Gonzaga and "work to do" club UNI appear twice.) That leaves me to look at the last four teams in the field and the 11 who have the best shot at replacing them over the next three weeks.
RPI data from Crashing The Dance and reflects games through Wednesday, February 24. All records were updated Friday, February 26 and reflect games against Division I opponents only.
Rhode Island (20-6; 8-5 A-10; RPI: 28): The Rams slip down to the Last Four In group mostly because teams like UConn, Marquette and Florida have moved up, and because of their own struggles. Rhody has not played well of late, snapping a three-game losing streak with a win over Fordham Saturday. Their marquee non-conference win came against fellow bubble team Oklahoma State, and they own respectable victories over Northeastern, Providence and Boston College. However, the Rams' best league win is over Dayton, as they're 0-4 against Temple, Richmond and Xavier, the three A-10 teams who look to be in the best shape right now
Oklahoma State (18-8; 7-6 Big 12; RPI 29): The Cowboys biggest problem is their lack of quality non-conference wins. They lost their two best opportunities — at Tulsa and to Rhode Island in a semi-home game for the Rams. That means their best non-league wins are the two they picked up in Las Vegas over Utah and Bradley, two teams who aren't going anywhere. A road win over Kansas State is Oklahoma State's best victory in the Big 12, and they missed a golden opportunity to pick up another marquee league win when they lost at struggling Texas by 10 on Wednesday.
UAB (22-5; 10-3 C-USA; RPI: 32; non-conf. RPI: 18): The Blazers are just hanging on, thanks to their early season home wins over lock Butler and fellow bubble team Cincinnati. After Wednesday’s win at UCF, UAB possesses a 11-3 road/neutral record, but that’s a bit deceptive, as the losses came against three of their best four road opponents — Kent State, Memphis and Virginia — none of whom are close to the field. The Blazers will have to close strong to stay in. While Saturday’s home game against Tulane is winnable, the final week — featuring a home date with Memphis and road trip to UTEP, who beat UAB at Bartow Arena — is far more crucial.
Charlotte (19-8; 9-4 A-10; RPI: 55; Non-conf. RPI: 60): During Wednesday's beatdown of St. Joe's, the 49ers resemble the team that just two weeks ago was in the midst of a seven-game win streak. That victory snapped a three-game losing streak. Bobby Lutz’s team will try to get to 20 victories this weekend, as they visit George Washington Saturday. Next week, they have a chance to grab two quality wins to close the season, as they visit Rhode Island and host Richmond, a team they already defeated at the Robins Center. Charlotte’s 9-5 road/neutral mark, featuring wins over the Spiders and Louisville, is a major boost for their hopes. A win over the Rams in Kingston would be a nice statement.
San Diego State (18-8; 9-5 MWC; RPI: 38; Non-conf. RPI: 40):The Aztecs drop out after their Wednesday loss at BYU. At one point, they were four points away from owning a 10-game win streak, as they lost to BYU by 2 at home and dropped a 2-point OT game at New Mexico. However, the Aztecs will wish they had those two games back, as they currently sit at 2-5 against the RPI Top 50 with no opportunities left before the Mountain West Tournament. The two wins, over New Mexico and UNLV, both came at home. The Aztecs have the weekend off before they close with a winnable home game against Colorado State and a road trip to hapless Air Force.
Cincinnati (16-11; 7-8 Big East; RPI: 57; Non-conf. RPI: 42): The Bearcats would be in over UConn, who they swept. However, after their loss to Marquette Sunday and an uninspiring win over DePaul Wednesday, the Bearcats are 5-7 in their last 12, like the Huskies, but 2-4 in their last six, granted one of those two wins came at UConn. On the other hand, can you guess the last time Mick Cronin’s team won a game against an opponent who’s a lock or near lock? If you said, “UC’s back-to-back victories over Vanderbilt and Maryland in Maui,” you are correct. The Bearcats get a chance to change that fact at West Virginia Saturday.
Notre Dame (18-10; 7-8 Big East; RPI: 80; Non-conf. RPI: 83): The Irish snapped their three game skid Wednesday, crushing No. 12 Pitt to give them their first win without the still-injured Luke Harangody. Given that the Irish’s three setbacks without Harangody were by a total of six points, you have to imagine that Notre Dame would have won at least two of them if he was healthy. Expect the Committee to keep this in mind, especially as the All-Big East forward should return soon. The Fighting Irish’s closing stretch provides them with more opportunities, as they visit Georgetown Saturday before closing with UConn at home and Marquette on the road. Notre Dame may need to win three of the four, thanks to home losses against Loyola Marymount, Rutgers and St. John’s; a lackluster 1-5 mark against RPI Top 50 teams; and an awful 2-7 road/neutral mark.
Arizona State (20-8; 10-5 Pac-10; RPI: 58; Non-conf. RPI: 58): The problem for any Pac-10 team that wants to turn itself into an at-large candidate is the schedule. However, the Sun Devils can grab a crucial top 50 win Saturday when they meet conference leader Cal (RPI: 24). While the game with the Golden Bears is a must win for any at-large hopes, ASU cannot afford to drop any of their other remaining games. They succeeded in defeating Stanford Thursday, and face home games against the L.A. schools next week. Currently, the only win the Sun Devils can hang their hat on is a home victory over San Diego State on December 19, their lone top 50 win in five tries.
Mississippi State (20-8; 8-5 SEC; RPI: 64; Non-conf. RPI: 79): The SEC West leaders find themselves here by virtue of their sweep of in-state rival Mississippi. The Bulldogs’ resume is a bit thin otherwise, with a win over Old Dominion in South Padre being the non-conference highlight, and losses at Western Kentucky and against Rider in Starkville major blemishes. MSU’s only real shot at a resume-building win comes March 6 at home against Tennessee. The Bulldogs topped Alabama Wednesday and next visit fading South Carolina on Saturday.
Mississippi (18-9; 6-7 SEC; RPI: 66; Non-conf. RPI: 39): The Rebels’ marquee win is better than their archrivals, as they defeated Kansas State by 12 in Puerto Rico before Thanksgiving. Still, not managing to beat the Bulldogs’ once is an issue, considering that’s the difference in the race for a bad division at the moment. Three straight losses, with two coming at home, didn’t help. (See Charlotte above.) However, the Rebels’ were able to beat Auburn Wednesday to end the skid. A road game at tricky Alabama is on the schedule for Saturday, followed by more SEC West SOS-crushing goodness, as Ole Miss has LSU and Arkansas on the slate before the SEC Tournament.
Washington (17-9; 8-7 Pac-10; RPI: 65; Non-conf. RPI: 24): The Huskies do own home wins over Texas A&M and Cal, but December losses at Texas Tech and against Georgetown in Anaheim are now missed opportunities in a weak bubble year. A sweep at the hands of tourney-ineligible USC, with the home loss coming Thursday doesn’t help either. In terms of building a late case, the Huskies’ schedule is even less helpful than the Sun Devils’. This week, UW travels to Pullman as they attempt to sweep the hoops’ Apple Cup. Next week, a trip to the Oregon schools awaits. Three away games is not the way for a team that owns a 1-6 record in true road games to close.
Dayton (18-9; 7-6 A-10; RPI: 44; Non-conf. RPI: 17): On Monday, I said the Flyers were another “revolving door” team, after a loss at Duquesne Sunday knocked them out. The door is now pretty much shut and locked (if you can do such a thing with a revolving door after Wednesday night’s loss at Temple. UD’s road/neutral record now stands at 5-8, with the best win coming against Georgia Tech in Puerto Rico way back on November 19 and the best true road victory coming against George Mason on December 8.
Minnesota (16-11; 7-8 Big Ten; RPI: 76; Non-conf. RPI: 64): The Golden Gophers’ chances took a hit when they couldn’t beat No. 3 Purdue, who played most of the game without Robbie Hummel, Wednesday night in Minneapolis. The Golden Gophers are now 4-9 this season against the RPI Top 100. Three of those wins came at The Barn, where they defeated Ohio State, Wisconsin and now-out of the picture Northwestern. Minnesota’s nine-point triumph over Butler in Anaheim is useful, but the losses to Portland and Texas A&M that followed aren’t. Neither was the road loss at Miami that followed the California trip. Losses to Indiana (in Bloomington) and Michigan (at home) sting, but the Gophers avenged the IU loss Saturday and can avenge the loss to the Wolverines on March 3 in Ann Arbor. Minnesota’s final chance to make an impression against a Tournament-quality opponent before the Big Ten Tournament comes at Illinois Saturday.
Seton Hall (16-10; 7-8 Big East; RPI: 50; Non-conf. RPI: 71): Remember that string of four games at the end of 2009/start of 2010, where the Pirates lost heartbreakers, including OT games against West Virginia and Virginia Tech? Hall fans are undoubtedly wishing they’d won a couple of those right about now, as those wins would be major boosts to an OK resume. But they didn’t, meaning the Pirates own a 2-9 mark against the RPI Top 50 and a 3-7 road/neutral mark. Those stats aren’t major selling points. One thing Seton Hall has done this season is prove that they can lose to good teams, and they won’t get much of a chance to reverse that down the stretch. Tuesday, they beat Rutgers in the first of two late meetings. Their game against Marquette is their final one against a tourney contender, as they close with a road trip to Rutgers and Providence.
South Florida (16-11; Big East 6-9; RPI: 67; Non-conf. RPI: 67): The Bulls looked like they had turned the corner with a four-game win streak in late January/early February, a run capped by a win at Georgetown on February 3. But that was a mirage, as they’ve since dropped four of five, including an ugly 16-point loss to St. John’s at home on Saturday. The Bulls seem to have an issue with playing to the level of their competition, as they’re 3-4 vs. the RPI Top 50, and 2-6 against teams rated between 51 and 100. USF couldn’t grab another marquee road win, as they were hammered at Villanova Wednesday. A home game with Providence is on deck for Saturday before the Bulls close with a roadie at DePaul and home game with a UConn team who’s also likely to be desperate for a victory.
TV information from Matt Sarz’ College Sports on TV site.
Saturday
Notre Dame at Georgetown, 12 p.m. ET (CBS Regional)
Mississippi at Alabama, 2 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Cincinnati at West Virginia, 2 p.m. ET (Big East Network/Full Court)
Arizona State at California, 3 p.m. ET (FSN/Comcast SportsNet)
Kansas at Oklahoma State, 4 p.m. ET (CBS)
VCU at Old Dominion, 4 p.m. ET (CSN Regional)
Maryland at Virginia Tech, 4 p.m. ET (Raycom Regional/Full Court)
Florida at Georgia, 4 p.m. ET (SEC Network/Full Court)
Mississippi State at South Carolina, 6 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Charlotte at George Washington, 6 p.m. ET (MASN)
Massachusetts at Dayton, 7 p.m. ET (WHIO/CSN Regional)
Minnesota at Illinois, 8 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network)
Washington at Washington State, 10 p.m. ET (FSN Northwest/FCS Pacific)
Sunday
Marquette at Seton Hall, 12 p.m. ET (Big East Network/Full Court)
Louisville at Connecticut, 2 p.m. ET (CBS)
A light Bubble Watch Thursday night featured key games for the top two teams in the Pac-10, California and Arizona State. Both won, so they'll meet Saturday in Berkeley (3 p.m. ET, FSN/Comcast SportsNet) for the conference lead heading into the final week of the regular season.
The Golden Bears (19-9, 11-5 Pac-10) pounded Arizona, 95-71. Cal had a 12 point lead at the break, that shrunk to nine early in the second, before they pulled away from the Wildcats. Jerome Randle led the Bears with 24 points. Visit our Cal blog, California Golden Blogs, and our Arizona blog, Arizona Desert Swarm, for postgame reaction for this one.
The Sun Devils (20-8, 10-5 Pac-10), on the other hand, had a more difficult time during their visit to Stanford, prevailing 68-60, thanks to the 24-point, six-board performance of Eric Boateng. You can read more on this one at our Arizona State blog, House Of Sparky.
In other action, Tulsa gave fifth-ranked Duke a game for about 25 minutes, before falling 70-52 in Durham. That defeat snuffed out the Golden Hurricane's already slim at-large hopes. On the other hand, the Blue Devils picked up a decent late season non-conference win to help their case for a number one seed. Head over to Duke Basketball Report for full postgame coverage.
The Pac-10 is the primary focus of Thursday night's Bubble Watch action, but a rare late February non-conference tilt serves as an early evening appetizer.
Fifth-ranked Duke hosts Tulsa (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2). I haven't written much about the Golden Hurricane's chances, mostly because they're pretty much non-existent after three straight conference losses. Even if they pull the major upset and win at Cameron tonight, Tulsa's profile (19-8, 9-5 in Conference USA, RPI: 77) won't put them in, but they'll be back in the conversation with three conference games left.
Of course, the Blue Devils will be playing for a one seed now that Purdue will be without Robbie Hummel for the rest of the season. You can read more about Tulsa-Duke at Duke Basketball Report.
Two of the three Pac-10 teams with at-large hopes will be in action later in the evening, but only one of the two games will be on television.
League leader Cal (18-9, 10-4 Pac-10, RPI: 24) hosts Arizona (9 p.m. ET, ESPN), looking to avenge a 76-72 loss in Tucson back on January 31. The Golden Bears are an example of how flawed the RPI can be. They rank 24th, which would normally guarantee them Tournament safety, despite not owning a single win over a Top 50 team and holding a 5-3 record against teams ranked between 51 and 100. That discrepancy is something the Committee will have to seriously discuss if Cal doesn't win the Pac-10 Tournament. Head over to our Cal blog, California Golden Blogs, and our Arizona blog, Arizona Desert Swarm, for more on this contest.
Second-place Arizona State (19-8, 9-5 Pac-10, RPI: 58), one of my Next Four Out in Monday's bracket, visits Stanford in a game that won't be televised. The Sun Devils will look to sweep the season series with the Cardinal and set up a game for first in the league in Berkeley on Saturday. You can follow along with this one at our Arizona State blog, House of Sparky.
Here is the updated look at the NCAA Tournament bubble, as of Thursday morning …
UAB (22-5; 10-3 C-USA; RPI: 32; non-conf. RPI: 18): The Blazers are just hanging on right now, thanks to their early season home wins over lock Butler and fellow bubble team Cincinnati. After Wednesday’s win at UCF, UAB possesses a 11-3 road/neutral record, but that’s a bit deceptive, as the losses came against three of their best four road opponents — Kent State, Memphis and Virginia — none of whom are close to the field. The Blazers will have to close strong to stay in. While Saturday’s home game against Tulane is winnable, the final week — featuring a home date with Memphis and road trip to UTEP, who beat UAB at Bartow Arena — is far more crucial.
Connecticut (17-11; 7-8 Big East; RPI: 42; non-conf. RPI: 13): The Huskies claimed a second straight Monday night win over a top ten opponent, defeating No. 8 West Virginia in Hartford. Of course, wins over the Mountaineers and last week’s victim, Villanova, wouldn’t have looked so good had the Huskies not beaten Rutgers on Saturday as well. UConn’s has one last home game, against Louisville Saturday, and a closing road swing at Notre Dame and USF that could help them improve on a lackluster 3-8 road/neutral record, while hurting two of their bubble competitors in the process.
San Diego State (18-8; 9-5 MWC; RPI: 38; Non-conf. RPI: 40):The Aztecs are here for one reason, and one reason only. Unlike most of their bubble brethren, they’re winning games more often than not, going 8-4 in their last 12, and 4-2 in their last six. Plus, they’re four points away from owning a 10-game win streak, as they lost to BYU by 2 at home and dropped a 2-point OT game at New Mexico. However, the Aztecs will wish they had those two games back after Wednesday’s loss at BYU, which makes them is 2-5 against the RPI Top 50. The two wins are home victories over the Lobos and UNLV. The Aztecs then take a week off before they close with a winnable home game against Colorado State and a road trip to hapless Air Force.
Marquette (17-9; 9-6 Big East; RPI: 63; Non-conf. RPI: 134): The Golden Eagles exemplify the “revolving door” aspect of this year’s Bubble. I had them out after their Thursday home loss to Pitt, and now they’re back in after a huge win at Cincinnati on Sunday afternoon. They hold on to their place after an OT win over St. John’s Wednesday. Marquette stands at 3-0 against Big East bubble teams with that win. Plus, they own a home win over Georgetown and neutral site victory over Xavier. On the minus side, the Golden Eagles’ road/neutral record now stands at 6-6, and they can get over .500 this week with a third straight road win at Seton Hall Sunday. Losses to N.C. State (RPI 116) and DePaul (182) are real blemishes, but will fade into the background with more victories.
First Four Out
Dayton (18-9; 7-6 A-10; RPI: 44; Non-conf. RPI: 17): On Monday, I said the Flyers were another “revolving door” team, after a loss at Duquesne Sunday knocked them out. The door is now pretty much shut and locked (if you can do such a thing with a revolving door after Wednesday night’s loss at Temple. UD’s road/neutral record now stands at 5-8, with the best win coming against Georgia Tech in Puerto Rico way back on November 19 and the best true road victory coming against George Mason on December 8.
Cincinnati (16-11; 7-8 Big East; RPI: 57; Non-conf. RPI: 42): In an ideal world, the Bearcats would be in over UConn, who they swept. However, after their loss to Marquette Sunday, the Bearcats are 5-7 in their last 12, like the Huskies, but 2-4 in their last six, granted one of those two wins came at UConn. On the other hand, can you guess the last time Mick Cronin’s team won a game against an opponent who’s a lock or near lock? If you said, “UC’s back-to-back victories over Vanderbilt and Maryland in Maui,” you are correct. The Bearcats get a chance to change that fact at West Virginia Saturday. The Bearcats did manage to beat DePaul at home on Wednesday to set up the key weekend clash.
Charlotte (19-8; 9-4 A-10; RPI: 55; Non-conf. RPI: 60): Just two weeks ago the 49ers were in the middle of a seven-game win streak, but Saturday’s 81-67 home loss to Xavier makes string that seem far away. The loss was the 49ers’ third straight defeat, and second consecutive at home. While a loss to the Musketeers was understandable, Wednesday’s six-point setback at the hands of Duquesne was less so. Bobby Lutz’s team will try to get to 20 victories this weekend, as they hammered St. Joseph’s to end their skid Wednesday to win number 19 and visit George Washington Saturday. Next week, they have a chance to grab two quality wins to close the season, as they visit Rhode Island and host Richmond, a team they already defeated at the Robins Center. Charlotte’s 9-5 road/neutral mark may yet be a major boost, especially if they can beat the Rams in Kingston.
Mississippi State (20-8; 8-5 SEC; RPI: 64; Non-conf. RPI: 79): The SEC West leaders find themselves here by virtue of their sweep of in-state rival Mississippi. The Bulldogs’ resume is a bit thin otherwise, with a win over Old Dominion in South Padre being the non-conference highlight, and losses at Western Kentucky and against Rider in Starkville major blemishes. MSU’s only real shot at a resume-building win comes March 6 at home against Tennessee. The Bulldogs topped Alabama Wednesday and next visit fading South Carolina on Saturday.
Next Four Out
Mississippi (18-9; 6-7 SEC; RPI: 66; Non-conf. RPI: 39): The Rebels’ marquee win is better than their archrivals, as they defeated Kansas State by 12 in Puerto Rico before Thanksgiving. Still, not managing to beat the Bulldogs’ once is an issue, considering that’s the difference in the race for a bad division at the moment. Three straight losses, with two coming at home, didn’t help. (See Charlotte above.) However, the Rebels’ were able to beat Auburn Wednesday to end the skid. A road game at tricky Alabama is on the schedule for Saturday, followed by more SEC West SOS-crushing goodness, as Ole Miss has LSU and Arkansas on the slate before the SEC Tournament.
Notre Dame (18-10; 7-8 Big East; RPI: 80; Non-conf. RPI: 83): The Irish snapped their three game skid Wednesday, crushing No. 12 Pitt to give them their first win without the still-injured Luke Harangody. Given that the Irish’s three setbacks without Harangody were by a total of six points, you have to imagine that Notre Dame would have won at least two of them if he was healthy. Expect the Committee to keep this in mind, especially as the All-Big East forward should return soon. The Fighting Irish’s closing stretch provides them with more opportunities, as they visit Georgetown Saturday before closing with UConn at home and Marquette on the road. Notre Dame may need to win three of the four, thanks to home losses against Loyola Marymount, Rutgers and St. John’s; a lackluster 1-5 mark against RPI Top 50 teams; and an awful 2-7 road/neutral mark.
Arizona State (19-8; 9-5 Pac-10; RPI: 58; Non-conf. RPI: 58): The problem for any Pac-10 team that wants to turn itself into an at-large candidate is the schedule. The Sun Devils next travel to the Bay Area, where they’ll face Stanford Thursday and league leaders Cal on Saturday before hosting the LA schools to close the regular season. While the game with the Golden Bears is a must win for any at-large hopes, ASU cannot afford to drop any of their other remaining games. The only win the Sun Devils can hang their hat on at the moment is a home victory over San Diego State on December 19, their lone top 50 win in five tries.
Washington (17-9; 8-7 Pac-10; RPI: 65; Non-conf. RPI: 24): The Huskies do own home wins over Texas A&M and Cal, but December losses at Texas Tech and against Georgetown in Anaheim are now missed opportunities in a weak bubble year. A sweep at the hands of tourney-ineligible USC, with the home loss coming Thursday doesn’t help either. In terms of building a late case, the Huskies’ schedule is even less helpful than the Sun Devils’. This week, UW travels to Pullman as they attempt to sweep the hoops’ Apple Cup. Next week, a trip to the Oregon schools awaits. Three away games is not the way for a team that owns a 1-6 record in true road games to close.
On The Fringe
Minnesota (16-11; 7-8 Big Ten; RPI: 76; Non-conf. RPI: 64): The Golden Gophers’ chances took a hit when they couldn’t beat No. 3 Purdue, who played most of the game without Robbie Hummel, Wednesday night in Minneapolis. The Golden Gophers are now 4-9 this season against the RPI Top 100. Three of those wins came at The Barn, where they defeated Ohio State, Wisconsin and now-out of the picture Northwestern. Minnesota’s nine-point triumph over Butler in Anaheim is useful, but the losses to Portland and Texas A&M that followed aren’t. Neither was the road loss at Miami that followed the California trip. Losses to Indiana (in Bloomington) and Michigan (at home) sting, but the Gophers avenged the IU loss Saturday and can avenge the loss to the Wolverines on March 3 in Ann Arbor. Minnesota’s final chance to make an impression against a Tournament-quality opponent before the Big Ten Tournament comes at Illinois Saturday.
St. Louis (17-9; 9-4 A-10; RPI: 84; Non-conf. RPI: 194): There are two reasons why the Billikens aren’t closer to the field: their 3-7 road/neutral record, and the fact their best non-conference win came against Big 12 bottom feeder Nebraska. Wednesday’s home loss to Xavier may have done them in, even with a home game against Temple coming up. SLU also visits Dayton to close the regular season, but that one looks like it could be for NIT seeding at this point.
Seton Hall (16-10; 7-8 Big East; RPI: 50; Non-conf. RPI: 71): Remember that string of four games at the end of 2009/start of 2010, where the Pirates lost heartbreakers, including OT games against West Virginia and Virginia Tech? Hall fans are undoubtedly wishing they’d won a couple of those right about now, as those wins would be major boosts to an OK resume. But they didn’t, meaning the Pirates own a 2-9 mark against the RPI Top 50 and a 3-7 road/neutral mark. Those stats aren’t major selling points. One thing Seton Hall has done this season is prove that they can lose to good teams, and they won’t get much of a chance to reverse that down the stretch. Tuesday, they beat Rutgers in the first of two late meetings. Their game against Marquette is their final one against a tourney contender, as they close with a road trip to Rutgers and Providence.
South Florida (16-11; Big East 6-9; RPI: 67; Non-conf. RPI: 67): The Bulls looked like they had turned the corner with a four-game win streak in late January/early February, a run capped by a win at Georgetown on February 3. But that was a mirage, as they’ve since dropped three of four, including an ugly 16-point loss to St. John’s at home on Saturday. The Bulls seem to have an issue with playing to the level of their competition, as they’re 3-4 vs. the RPI Top 50, and 2-6 against teams rated between 51 and 100. USF couldn’t grab another marquee road win, as they were hammered at Villanova Wednesday. A home game with Providence is on deck for Saturday before the Bulls close with a roadie at DePaul and home game with a UConn team who’s also likely to be desperate for a victory.
Bubble Games To Watch This Week
TV information from Matt Sarz’ College Sports on TV site.
Thursday
Arizona at California, 9 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Saturday
Notre Dame at Georgetown, 12 p.m. ET (CBS Regional)
Mississippi at Alabama, 2 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Cincinnati at West Virginia, 2 p.m. ET (Big East Network/Full Court)
Arizona State at California, 3 p.m. ET (FSN/Comcast SportsNet)
Kansas at Oklahoma State, 4 p.m. ET (CBS)
VCU at Old Dominion, 4 p.m. ET (CSN Regional)
Maryland at Virgina Tech, 4 p.m. ET (Raycom Regional/Full Court)
Florida at Georgia, 4 p.m. ET (SEC Network/Full Court)
Mississippi State at South Carolina, 6 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Charlotte at George Washington, 6 p.m. ET (MASN)
Massachusetts at Dayton, 7 p.m. ET (WHIO/CSN Regional)
Minnesota at Illinois, 8 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network)
Washington at Washington State, 10 p.m. ET (FSN Northwest/FCS Pacific)
Sunday
Northwestern at Penn State, 12 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network)
Marquette at Seton Hall, 12 p.m. ET (Big East Network/Full Court)
Richmond at Xavier, 1 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Louisville at Connecticut, 2 p.m. ET (CBS)
Clemson at Florida State, 5:30 p.m. ET (FSN/Comcast SportsNet)
Wednesday was a busy evening for Bubble Watch teams, not many of whom were able to take advantage of the games they had on the schedule.
Three of the Last Four In were in action. San Diego State had the most to gain of the the group, but they fell at BYU, 82-68. Our Cougar blog, Vanquish The Foe, and our Mountain West Connection blog have more on this one.
The other two clubs were both challenged, but survived. UAB managed to move to 10-3 in Conference USA and 22-5 overall, but it wasn't easy, as they only defeated UCF 53-49 in Orlando. Marquette also struggled, but they managed to move to 9-6 in the Big East with a 63-61 overtime win over St. John's in Queens, thanks to a Jimmy Butler buzzer-beater. The Golden Eagles will look to win their third straight road game Sunday at Seton Hall.
In the First Four Out group, Dayton is for all intents and purposes out of the race (barring a run through the A-10 Tournament after their 49-41 loss at Temple. The Flyers only scored 13 in the first half, And Temple was exactly able to put them away, as the Owls only managed 19 in that same period.
Charlotte could be in position to benefit from Dayton's struggles The 49ers are two games up on the Flyers in the A-10 standings after they beat St. Joseph's, 95-58, to record their 19th victory of the season and snap a three-game skid.
Cincinnati, on the other hand. grabbed a 74-69 home win over DePaul. The Bearcats can get to .500 in the Big East next time out, but that's not likely, considering they next play at No. 8 West Virginia Saturday.
Mississippi State also defended their home court, topping Alabama, 74-66. The Bulldogs are now alone atop the SEC West at 8-6 after Arkansas lost to LSU. Roll Bama Roll, SBN's Alabama blog, and For Whom The Cowbell Tolls, our Miss. State site, will have more on the Tide at Bulldogs contest.
Among the Next Four Out, Ole Miss had a devil of a time against Auburn, finally pulling away to win 85-75. Like I said, the Rebels won't get much of a boost because of that win, but they couldn't afford a loss. Read more about this one at our Rebel blog, Red Cup Rebellion, and our Tiger blog, Track Em Tigers.
On the other hand, Notre Dame grabbed a huge 68-53 home win over No. 12 Pittsburgh. It was the first win for the Irish without Luke Harangody, who's still out with a knee injury. Read more at our Fighting Irish blog, Rakes Of Mallow.
Three teams on the fringe played Wednesday, and all of them suffered defeats. Minnesota blew a golden opportunity (bad pun intended) as they couldn't beat No. 3 Purdue at home, even though the Boilermakers were without the services of Robbie Hummel for most of the game. The Gophers have one last shot to make a real impression before the Big Ten tournament, and that comes at Illinois on Saturday. Our Minnesota blog, The Daily Gopher, and our Purdue blog, Hammer And Rails, will have full reaction to Wednesday night's game.
St. Louis' short-lived bubble hopes are pretty much finished, as couldn't grab a third straight home victory over an A-10 contender, falling to Xavier, 73-71. There are simply too many holes on the Billikens' resume, and only an A-10 Tournament title can save them.
USF's four-game Big East win streak is looking like an abberation. The Bulls fell 74-49 at seventh-ranked Villanova, to fall to 16-11 overall and 6-9 in the conference.
Further up the S-curve, Virginia Tech did themselves no favors by losing at Boston College, 80-60. The Hokies second loss in a row drops them to 8-5 in the ACC. While they've won 21 games, Tech can't really afford another big slip up like this one, thanks to a weak non-conference schedule,. Read more at our Hokie blog, Gobbler Country, and our Eagle blog, BC Interruption.
Oklahoma State was swept by No. 21 Texas, who won a 69-59 decision in Austin. Our Texas blog, Burnt Orange Nation, will have more on this one.
Maryland came back to defeat Clemson, 88-79 in College Park to further secure their spot. Head over to our Maryland blog, Testudo Times, and our Clemson blog, Shakin The Southland, for full postgame reaction.
UNLV won their second in a row, cruising past TCU, 78-62. Head back to Mountain West Connection to read more.
Finally, in one game involving a conference leader on the bubble, UTEP held onto the Conference USA lead with a tough 59-56 win at Southern Mississippi. The Miners are 12-1 in the conference and 21-5 overall heading into a home game against Rice on Saturday. Read more about the Miners' win at our new UTEP blog, the appropriately named Miner Rush.
It's halftime of the big Atlantic 10 tilt between bubble team Dayton and 20th-ranked Temple in Philadelphia, and the score is certainly unexpected, especially for a game between a two teams who have a chance at postseason play.
You're eyes aren't deceiving you. A team fighting for its NCAA life shot 16 percent from the field in the first half. They scored just nine points in the first 17 minutes, 30 seconds of the half before exploding for four more in the last two and a half minutes.
Miraculously, the Flyers are only down six. That's because the Owls, who I projected as a 5 seed in my Monday bracket, only managed to hit nine of their 30 field goal attempts for the half.
Remember, Flyers, the only way off the bubble is to win games, and you need to put the ball in the basket to do that.
Since Wednesday is the busiest weeknight of any college basketball week, you'd be right to expect several games involving Bubble Watch teams.
The big game of the night is in the Mountain West, where 13th-ranked BYU hosts San Diego State (9 p.m. ET, CBS College). The Cougars are unbeaten at home this season, but can't get caught looking ahead to Saturday's tilt against No. 10 New Mexico (who may have been looking ahead themselves last night against Colorado State). The Aztecs could really use a marquee road win to boost their shaky case, so expect them to throw everything, including any available kitchen sinks at Jimmer Fredette and co. Both our BYU blog, Vanquish The Foe, and our Mountain West Connection blog will have this one covered from every angle.
Dayton, one of my First Four Out on Monday, might just find themselves back in my Saturday morning bracket if they can win at 20th-ranked Temple (6:30 p.m. ET, WHIO/Comcast Network Philly/CSN Washington+). The Owls, however, haven't dropped an A-10 home game this season, while the Flyers have only managed to win at Fordham and St. Bonaventure. In other Atlantic 10 bubble action, St. Louis, still a fringe candidate because of a terrible non-conference resume, looks to follow up home wins over Dayton and Rhode Island with one over Xavier (8 p.m. ET, FS Ohio).
Cincinnati hosts DePaul (7 p.m. ET, Big East Network/Full Court), hoping to rebound from their Sunday loss to Marquette. A win over the Blue Demons won't do much for the resume, however. The Golden Eagles, on the other hand, will look to win the second game of their three-game road swing. They're at St. John's (7:30 p.m. ET, Big East Network/Full Court).
Notre Dame can boost their chances at home against No. 12 Pitt (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2). They'll just have to win without the still-injured Luke Harangody, who's been ruled out. Read more at our Fighting Irish blog, Rakes Of Mallow. USF also faces one of the league leaders as they look to boost their flagging hopes. The Bulls visit a seventh-ranked Villanova team that has lost two straight (9 p.m. ET, Big East Network/Full Court).
Ole Miss hosts Auburn (8 p.m. ET, SEC Network/Full Court) in yet another game where a win won't really help, but a loss would be fatal. Head over to our Rebel blog, Red Cup Rebellion, and our Tiger blog, Track Em Tigers, for more on this one. Mississippi State will get a bit more of a bump if they win their home contest against Alabama (9 p.m. ET, SEC on CSS/Full Court). Roll Bama Roll, SBN's Alabama blog, and For Whom The Cowbell Tolls, our Miss. State site, will have more on this one.
Minnesota hosts No. 3 Purdue (8:30 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network) knowing a win over a potential number 1 seed would move them from a fringe candidate to a real player, especially with a road game coming up against Illinois on Saturday. Check out our Minnesota blog, The Daily Gopher, and our Purdue blog, Hammer And Rails, for full coverage of this one.
There are still other games involving teams who are up my S-curve, but not yet 100 percent safe. If a team's name is a link, click it to visit the school's SB Nation blog.
Virginia Tech at Boston College (7 p.m. ET, ESPNU): This shapes up as a tough one for the Hokies, as they only beat the Eagles by 1 in Blacksburg.
Oklahoma State at No. 21 Texas (9 p.m. ET, ESPN2): A Cowboy win would be helpful, even if the Longhorns are fading badly.
Clemson at Maryland (9 p.m. ET, Raycom/Full Court): This is a key matchup for positioning in the middle of the bracket. These are two teams who definitely would rather be a 7 than an 8.
TCU at UNLV (11 p.m. ET, the mtn.): The Rebels aren't as safe as they were before their three-game losing streak, which they snapped Saturday against Colorado State.
Bubble teams across the country got a boost when No. 25 Northern Iowa fell at Evansville, the last place team in the Missouri Valley, by a 55-54 score. That Aces win, only their second in the league all season and eighth overall, really hurts the Panthers' at-large hopes. If UNI doesn't win Arch Madness next weekend, their tourney hopes could be sunk.
Louisville, who checked in as a 9 seed in Monday's edition of Bracketology, suffered a damaging, but certainly not fatal, loss at home to 11th-ranked Georgetown, falling 70-60. The Cardinals could be in real trouble, however, if they lose at resurgent UConn on Sunday. Visit our Louisville blog, Card Chronicle, and our Georgetown blog, Casual Hoya, for complete postgame reaction.
In the Big Ten, Illinois moved to 10-5 in the conference and 18-10 overall with a hard-fought 51-44 win at Michigan. The Illini next host Minnesota, another team who has Tournament hopes of their own, on Saturday. Our Illinois blog, Hail To The Orange, and our Michigan blog, Maize N Brew, will have more on this defensive battle.
For the 12th straight season, Florida has won 20 games. The Gators are guaranteed of a winning SEC mark, as they topped No.19 Tennessee, 75-62, to grab their ninth conference win. The victory was Florida's first over an SEC opponent who doesn't reside in the West Division or the bottom of the East. The Gators next head to Athens to take on Georgia Saturday. Check out our Florida blog, Alligator Army, and our Tennessee blog, Rocky Top Talk, for more.
Seton Hall won the first of two late season meetings with Rutgers, prevailing 76-70 in Newark. The two meet again in Piscataway next Thursday. In between, the Pirates (16-10, 7-8 Big East) will attempt to get to .500 in the league at home against Marquette on Sunday. That game is Seton Hall's last one this year against a team with NCAA hopes. Head over to our Pirates blog, Gonzo Ball, and our Rutgers blog, Protect R Turf, for more reaction to the Garden State Battle.
Last night, UConn, one of my Last Four In for this week, improved their chances at making the NCAA Tournament by beating eighth-ranked West Virginia, their second straight Monday night win over a top 10 team.
On Tuesday, Louisville, who was in slightly better position in my Monday bracket, looks to grab another helpful victory, as they host No. 11 Georgetown . The Cardinals are looking for their fourth straight win, and if they get it, they'll be tied with West Virginia for fourth in the Big East. That's important because the top four teams in the conference standings receive a bye to the quarterfinals of the Big East Tournament, a major advantage in a five-day, sixteen-team event. For more on this matchup, visit our Louisville blog, Card Chronicle, and our Georgetown blog, Casual Hoya.
Remember that Louisville visits UConn on Sunday in an important bubble tilt.
Illinois and Florida, two teams whose bracket positions are a bit shaky face different challenges tonight. The Fighting Illini must stop a two-game skid against Michigan, which won't be an easy task, considering the game is in Ann Arbor (7 p.m. ET, ESPN) Check out our Illinois blog, Hail To The Orange, and our Michigan blog, Maize N Brew.
On the other hand, the Gators look to grab a key SEC win as host Tennessee (9 p.m. ET, ESPN). Florida's goal tonight is simple: defeat a quality opponent for the first time since grabbing back-to-back wins over Florida State and Michigan State in late November. Head over to our Florida blog, Alligator Army, and our Tennessee blog, Rocky Top Talk, for more.
On the fringes of the bubble, Seton Hall hosts Rutgers (8 p.m. ET, Big East Network/Full Court), the first of two games between the Pirates and Scarlet Knights between now and the end of the regular season. The Hall will have to win both to have any hope of making the field. You can read more about this one at our Seton Hall blog, Gonzo Ball, and our Rutgers blog, Protect R Turf.
One week ago, Connecticut set the stage for their return to the at-large conversation by beating then-No. 3 Villanova in Philadelphia. Tonight, they pretty much beat down the door, with a 73-62 home win over eighth-ranked West Virginia.
Two top ten wins in a week's time, without a letdown loss in between, significantly boosts the Huskies' candidacy in a soft bubble season.
On Sunday, UConn will look to extend their streak to four, as they host Louisville, another team who's looking to solidify a bid. The Cardinals won the first meeting between the two back on February 1.
Head over to The UConn Blog and our West Virginia site, The Smoking Musket, to read more on the Huskies' big win.
SB Nation's Chris Dobbertean, editor of Blogging The Bracket, presents his first look at the NCAA Tournament bubble for the season. Come back for daily updates on the status of the bubble -- who's is, who's out and full analysis of games.
Welcome to our NCAA Bubble Watch StoryStream, where I'll be examining who's safe and who's not in terms of Tournament selection over the final three weeks of the season. For a look at who's seeded where, follow this link to visit Bracketology.
Before I talk about who's on the fringes and sitting just outside, here's a look at how the field stacks up right now.
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Mid-American, Mid-Eastern, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Southwestern, Summit, Sun Belt
West Coast: Gonzaga (lock)
Horizon: Butler (lock)
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa (somewhat safe)
Conference USA: UTEP
Pacific-10: California
Western Athletic: Utah State
Colonial: Old Dominion
Ivy: Cornell
Metro Atlantic: Siena
I'll look at the at-large chances of the last six teams on this list as the situation warrants over the last three weeks of the season.
ACC: Duke*
A-10: Temple
Big East: Syracuse*, Villanova, West Virginia, Georgetown, Pittsburgh
Big Ten: Purdue*, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Big 12: Kansas*, Kansas State, Texas, Baylor, Texas A&M, Missouri
Horizon: Butler*
MWC: New Mexico*, BYU
SEC: Kentucky*, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
WCC: Gonzaga*
Teams with an asterisk own their respective conference's automatic bid.
ACC: Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Florida State
A-10: Richmond*, Xavier, Rhode Island
Big East: Louisville
Big Ten: Illinois
Big 12: Oklahoma State
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa*
MWC: UNLV
SEC: Florida
WCC: St. Mary's
Of this group, Florida, Oklahoma State, Rhode Island and St. Mary's hold the most precarious positions. These four teams could find themselves among either the Last Four In or First Four Out as the clock ticks down .
That takes care of 61 of the 65 teams. (No, I didn't count wrong, locks Butler and Gonzaga and "work to do" club UNI appear twice.) That leaves me to look at the last four teams in the field and the 12 who have the best shot at replacing them over the next three weeks.
RPI data from Crashing The Dance. All records reflect games against Division I opponents only. Recaps and records updated Thursday, February 25 at 7:20 a.m. ET.
UAB (22-5; 10-3 C-USA; RPI: 32; non-conf. RPI: 18): The Blazers are just hanging on right now, thanks to their early season home wins over lock Butler and fellow bubble team Cincinnati. After Wednesday's win at UCF, UAB possesses a 11-3 road/neutral record, but that's a bit deceptive, as the losses came against three of their best four road opponents -- Kent State, Memphis and Virginia -- none of whom are close to the field. The Blazers will have to close strong to stay in. While Saturday's home game against Tulane is winnable, the final week -- featuring a home date with Memphis and road trip to UTEP, who beat UAB at Bartow Arena -- is far more crucial.
Connecticut (17-11; 7-8 Big East; RPI: 42; non-conf. RPI: 13): The Huskies claimed a second straight Monday night win over a top ten opponent, defeating No. 8 West Virginia in Hartford. Of course, wins over the Mountaineers and last week's victim, Villanova, wouldn't have looked so good had the Huskies not beaten Rutgers on Saturday as well. UConn's has one last home game, against Louisville Saturday, and a closing road swing at Notre Dame and USF that could help them improve on a lackluster 3-8 road/neutral record, while hurting two of their bubble competitors in the process.
San Diego State (18-8; 9-5 MWC; RPI: 38; Non-conf. RPI: 40):The Aztecs are here for one reason, and one reason only. Unlike most of their bubble brethren, they're winning games more often than not, going 8-4 in their last 12, and 4-2 in their last six. Plus, they're four points away from owning a 10-game win streak, as they lost to BYU by 2 at home and dropped a 2-point OT game at New Mexico. However, the Aztecs will wish they had those two games back after Wednesday's loss at BYU, which makes them is 2-5 against the RPI Top 50. The two wins are home victories over the Lobos and UNLV. The Aztecs then take a week off before they close with a winnable home game against Colorado State and a road trip to hapless Air Force.
Marquette (17-9; 9-6 Big East; RPI: 63; Non-conf. RPI: 134): The Golden Eagles exemplify the "revolving door" aspect of this year's Bubble. I had them out after their Thursday home loss to Pitt, and now they're back in after a huge win at Cincinnati on Sunday afternoon. They hold on to their place after an OT win over St. John's Wednesday. Marquette stands at 3-0 against Big East bubble teams with that win. Plus, they own a home win over Georgetown and neutral site victory over Xavier. On the minus side, the Golden Eagles' road/neutral record now stands at 6-6, and they can get over .500 this week with a third straight road win at Seton Hall Sunday. Losses to N.C. State (RPI 116) and DePaul (182) are real blemishes, but will fade into the background with more victories.
Dayton (18-9; 7-6 A-10; RPI: 44; Non-conf. RPI: 17): On Monday, I said the Flyers were another "revolving door" team, after a loss at Duquesne Sunday knocked them out. The door is now pretty much shut and locked (if you can do such a thing with a revolving door after Wednesday night's loss at Temple. UD's road/neutral record now stands at 5-8, with the best win coming against Georgia Tech in Puerto Rico way back on November 19 and the best true road victory coming against George Mason on December 8.
Cincinnati (16-11; 7-8 Big East; RPI: 57; Non-conf. RPI: 42): In an ideal world, the Bearcats would be in over UConn, who they swept. However, after their loss to Marquette Sunday, the Bearcats are 5-7 in their last 12, like the Huskies, but 2-4 in their last six, granted one of those two wins came at UConn. On the other hand, can you guess the last time Mick Cronin's team won a game against an opponent who's a lock or near lock? If you said, "UC's back-to-back victories over Vanderbilt and Maryland in Maui," you are correct. The Bearcats get a chance to change that fact at West Virginia Saturday. The Bearcats did manage to beat DePaul at home on Wednesday to set up the key weekend clash.
Charlotte (19-8; 9-4 A-10; RPI: 55; Non-conf. RPI: 60): Just two weeks ago the 49ers were in the middle of a seven-game win streak, but Saturday's 81-67 home loss to Xavier makes string that seem far away. The loss was the 49ers' third straight defeat, and second consecutive at home. While a loss to the Musketeers was understandable, Wednesday's six-point setback at the hands of Duquesne was less so. Bobby Lutz's team will try to get to 20 victories this weekend, as they hammered St. Joseph's to end their skid Wednesday to win number 19 and visit George Washington Saturday. Next week, they have a chance to grab two quality wins to close the season, as they visit Rhode Island and host Richmond, a team they already defeated at the Robins Center. Charlotte's 9-5 road/neutral mark may yet be a major boost, especially if they can beat the Rams in Kingston.
Mississippi State (20-8; 8-5 SEC; RPI: 64; Non-conf. RPI: 79): The SEC West leaders find themselves here by virtue of their sweep of in-state rival Mississippi. The Bulldogs' resume is a bit thin otherwise, with a win over Old Dominion in South Padre being the non-conference highlight, and losses at Western Kentucky and against Rider in Starkville major blemishes. MSU's only real shot at a resume-building win comes March 6 at home against Tennessee. The Bulldogs topped Alabama Wednesday and next visit fading South Carolina on Saturday.
Mississippi (18-9; 6-7 SEC; RPI: 66; Non-conf. RPI: 39): The Rebels' marquee win is better than their archrivals, as they defeated Kansas State by 12 in Puerto Rico before Thanksgiving. Still, not managing to beat the Bulldogs' once is an issue, considering that's the difference in the race for a bad division at the moment. Three straight losses, with two coming at home, didn't help. (See Charlotte above.) However, the Rebels' were able to beat Auburn Wednesday to end the skid. A road game at tricky Alabama is on the schedule for Saturday, followed by more SEC West SOS-crushing goodness, as Ole Miss has LSU and Arkansas on the slate before the SEC Tournament.
Notre Dame (18-10; 7-8 Big East; RPI: 80; Non-conf. RPI: 83): The Irish snapped their three game skid Wednesday, crushing No. 12 Pitt to give them their first win without the still-injured Luke Harangody. Given that the Irish's three setbacks without Harangody were by a total of six points, you have to imagine that Notre Dame would have won at least two of them if he was healthy. Expect the Committee to keep this in mind, especially as the All-Big East forward should return soon. The Fighting Irish's closing stretch provides them with more opportunities, as they visit Georgetown Saturday before closing with UConn at home and Marquette on the road. Notre Dame may need to win three of the four, thanks to home losses against Loyola Marymount, Rutgers and St. John's; a lackluster 1-5 mark against RPI Top 50 teams; and an awful 2-7 road/neutral mark.
Arizona State (19-8; 9-5 Pac-10; RPI: 58; Non-conf. RPI: 58): The problem for any Pac-10 team that wants to turn itself into an at-large candidate is the schedule. The Sun Devils next travel to the Bay Area, where they'll face Stanford Thursday and league leaders Cal on Saturday before hosting the LA schools to close the regular season. While the game with the Golden Bears is a must win for any at-large hopes, ASU cannot afford to drop any of their other remaining games. The only win the Sun Devils can hang their hat on at the moment is a home victory over San Diego State on December 19, their lone top 50 win in five tries.
Washington (17-9; 8-7 Pac-10; RPI: 65; Non-conf. RPI: 24): The Huskies do own home wins over Texas A&M and Cal, but December losses at Texas Tech and against Georgetown in Anaheim are now missed opportunities in a weak bubble year. A sweep at the hands of tourney-ineligible USC, with the home loss coming Thursday doesn't help either. In terms of building a late case, the Huskies' schedule is even less helpful than the Sun Devils'. This week, UW travels to Pullman as they attempt to sweep the hoops' Apple Cup. Next week, a trip to the Oregon schools awaits. Three away games is not the way for a team that owns a 1-6 record in true road games to close.
On The Fringe
Minnesota (16-11; 7-8 Big Ten; RPI: 76; Non-conf. RPI: 64): The Golden Gophers' chances took a hit when they couldn't beat No. 3 Purdue, who played most of the game without Robbie Hummel, Wednesday night in Minneapolis. The Golden Gophers are now 4-9 this season against the RPI Top 100. Three of those wins came at The Barn, where they defeated Ohio State, Wisconsin and now-out of the picture Northwestern. Minnesota's nine-point triumph over Butler in Anaheim is useful, but the losses to Portland and Texas A&M that followed aren't. Neither was the road loss at Miami that followed the California trip. Losses to Indiana (in Bloomington) and Michigan (at home) sting, but the Gophers avenged the IU loss Saturday and can avenge the loss to the Wolverines on March 3 in Ann Arbor. Minnesota's final chance to make an impression against a Tournament-quality opponent before the Big Ten Tournament comes at Illinois Saturday.
St. Louis (17-9; 9-4 A-10; RPI: 84; Non-conf. RPI: 194): There are two reasons why the Billikens aren't closer to the field: their 3-7 road/neutral record, and the fact their best non-conference win came against Big 12 bottom feeder Nebraska. Wednesday's home loss to Xavier may have done them in, even with a home game against Temple coming up. SLU also visits Dayton to close the regular season, but that one looks like it could be for NIT seeding at this point.
Seton Hall (16-10; 7-8 Big East; RPI: 50; Non-conf. RPI: 71): Remember that string of four games at the end of 2009/start of 2010, where the Pirates lost heartbreakers, including OT games against West Virginia and Virginia Tech? Hall fans are undoubtedly wishing they'd won a couple of those right about now, as those wins would be major boosts to an OK resume. But they didn't, meaning the Pirates own a 2-9 mark against the RPI Top 50 and a 3-7 road/neutral mark. Those stats aren't major selling points. One thing Seton Hall has done this season is prove that they can lose to good teams, and they won't get much of a chance to reverse that down the stretch. Tuesday, they beat Rutgers in the first of two late meetings. Their game against Marquette is their final one against a tourney contender, as they close with a road trip to Rutgers and Providence.
South Florida (16-11; Big East 6-9; RPI: 67; Non-conf. RPI: 67): The Bulls looked like they had turned the corner with a four-game win streak in late January/early February, a run capped by a win at Georgetown on February 3. But that was a mirage, as they've since dropped three of four, including an ugly 16-point loss to St. John's at home on Saturday. The Bulls seem to have an issue with playing to the level of their competition, as they're 3-4 vs. the RPI Top 50, and 2-6 against teams rated between 51 and 100. USF couldn't grab another marquee road win, as they were hammered at Villanova Wednesday. A home game with Providence is on deck for Saturday before the Bulls close with a roadie at DePaul and home game with a UConn team who's also likely to be desperate for a victory.
As we're headed into the homestretch, I'm shifting the focus of this feature to games with bubble impact. Be sure to check in regularly, as I'm going to have a daily preview/recap post for the most important of these matchups, which you'll be able to find as updates to this storystream.
TV information from Matt Sarz' College Sports on TV site.
Monday
West Virginia at Connecticut, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Tuesday
Illinois at Michigan, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Georgetown at Louisville, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Rutgers at Seton Hall, 8 p.m. ET (Big East Network/Full Court)
Tennessee at Florida, 9 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Wednesday
Dayton at Temple, 6:30 p.m. ET (Comcast Network Philly/WHIO/CSN Washington+)
Pittsburgh at Notre Dame, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
DePaul at Cincinnati, 7 p.m. ET (Big East Network/Full Court)
Marquette at St. John's, 7:30 p.m. ET (Big East Network/Full Court)
Auburn at Mississippi, 8 p.m. ET (SEC Network/Full Court)
Xavier at St. Louis, 8 p.m. ET (FS Ohio)
Purdue at Minnesota, 8:30 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network)
Oklahoma State at Texas, 9 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
BYU at San Diego State, 9 p.m. ET (CBS College Sports)
Alabama at Mississippi State, 9 p.m. ET (SEC on CSS/Full Court)
South Florida at Villanova, 9 p.m. ET (Big East Network/Full Court)
Clemson at Maryland, 9 p.m. ET (Raycom/Full Court)
Thursday
Arizona at California, 9 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Saturday
Notre Dame at Georgetown, 12 p.m. ET (CBS Regional)
Mississippi at Alabama, 2 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Cincinnati at West Virginia, 2 p.m. ET (Big East Network/Full Court)
Arizona State at California, 3 p.m. ET (FSN/Comcast SportsNet)
Kansas at Oklahoma State, 4 p.m. ET (CBS)
VCU at Old Dominion, 4 p.m. ET (CSN Regional)
Maryland at Virgina Tech, 4 p.m. ET (Raycom Regional/Full Court)
Florida at Georgia, 4 p.m. ET (SEC Network/Full Court)
Mississippi State at South Carolina, 6 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Charlotte at George Washington, 6 p.m. ET (MASN)
Massachusetts at Dayton, 7 p.m. ET (WHIO/CSN Regional)
Minnesota at Illinois, 8 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network)
Washington at Washington State, 10 p.m. ET (FSN Northwest/FCS Pacific)
Sunday
Northwestern at Penn State, 12 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network)
Marquette at Seton Hall, 12 p.m. ET (Big East Network/Full Court)
Richmond at Xavier, 1 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Louisville at Connecticut, 2 p.m. ET (CBS)
Clemson at Florida State, 5:30 p.m. ET (FSN/Comcast SportsNet)
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Scoreboard data copyright © 2012 by STATS LLC. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of STATS LLC is strictly prohibited.
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Odds Shark 
Final Bubble Watch Update: Florida Back In; UTEP Falls Out; Miss. State Out Of Luck
After more hot number-crunching action at the Chateau Bracket, I've made a few changes to my Last Five In and First Four Out before the selection show at 6 p.m. ET. This is the last Bubble Watch update for this season.
Last Five In
California (23-10; 13-5 Pac-10; RPI: 20; Non-conf. RPI: 10): The Golden Bears remain here after Saturday's loss in the Pac-10 final to Washington.
Minnesota (21-12; 9-9 Big Ten; RPI: 59; Non-conf. RPI: 60): The Golden Gophers are in whether they win or lose to Ohio State in the Big Ten final.
Virginia Tech (23-8; 10-6 ACC; RPI: 58; Non-conf. RPI: 92): The Hokies played the toughest part of their schedule late, and they won three of the five games against the RPI Top 50 they played in their last 12. Sure, the Hokies' non-conference schedule left much to be desired, but they did go 3-4 against teams who would have made the field without an automatic bid. That's more wins than any of their competitiors.
Utah State (26-7; 14-2 WAC; RPI: 30; Non-conf. RPI: 56): Looking deeper at the Aggies' resume, they could very well be out. Even though they own a 10-6 road/neutral record, the best of the 10 wins is against Weber State. Their profile is very similar to UTEP's (finished well, won a weaker conference), but Utah State stays in because they have a marquee non-conference win over a team in the field, BYU, something their Conference USA bubble rival doesn't own.
Florida (21-12; 9-7 SEC: RPI: 56: Non-conf. RPI: 75): Certainly, the Gators didn't finish well, but they have better non-conference wins than others in this group (Michigan State, Florida State) and there was a legitimate attempt to upgrade that part of the schedule. Florida gets the nod over Mississippi State because of fewer bad losses and a slighly higher level of quality in their nine SEC wins compared to the Bulldogs.
First Four Out
Mississippi State (23-10; 9-7 SEC; RPI: 54; Non-conf. RPI: 69): The Bulldogs came within one-tenth of a second of being in and rendering much of this discussion moot. Then DeMarcus Cousins tied the SEC Championship game at the buzzer and Kentucky won. Mississippi State seems to make a habit of coming alive in the conference tournament, but they needed to do so a bit earlier this season. Nine wins in the weaker SEC West and non-conference setbacks to Western Kentucky and Rider aren't selling points. The non-league wins aren't dazzling either, as Old Dominion (good) and UCLA (not so good) are the two best.
UTEP (26-26; 15-1 C-USA); RPI: 38; Non-conf. RPI: 135): Like Utah State, there isn't really all that much to the Miners' resume. They have an 0-1 record against teams who would be in the field without an at-large, thanks to a home loss to BYU. Their record improves to 2-4 if you add in a 1-2 record against Houston and a split with New Mexico State. The Miners' 11-4 road/neutral record is gaudy, but the best three wins are against UAB and Memphis (both out) and New Mexico State (auto bid) with the losses coming at the hands of Ole Miss (out), Texas Tech (out), and two at the hands of Houston. If the Miners' fall out, it will be reason No. 576, 287 to not listen to the polls, who currently have them 25th and 21st.
Illinois (18-14; 10-6 Big Ten; RPI: 70; Non-conf. RPI: 121): No team had more chances to put themselves in than the Illini, as they went 5-9 against teams in the field without an auto bid (6-10 if you count bubble team Minnesota and SoCon champ Wofford). A 7-10 neutral record, including disappointing losses to Georgia, Bradley, Utah and Northwestern doesn't help matters either. The Illini can play like a Tournament team, but they weren't consistent enough through the season, considering their opportunities.
William & Mary (21-10; 12-6 CAA; RPI: 57; Non-conf. RPI: 12): The Tribe has been off since losing the CAA final on Monday, so they haven't had a chance to better their chances. They own good wins over Maryland, Wake Forest and Richmond, and bad losses to James Madison, Towson and UNC Wilmington. Like Illinois and Mississippi State, the blemishes may be too much to ignore.
Mar 14 4:11p by Chris Dobbertean - 0 comments