NCAA Bubble Watch Update: How The Field Stacks Up And Weekend Games To Watch

Here is the updated look at the NCAA Tournament field, click here for my Saturday morning bracket.

One-Bid Leagues (15)

America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Mid-American, Mid-Eastern, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Southwestern, Summit, Sun Belt

Shot At Two (9)

West Coast: Gonzaga (lock)
Horizon: Butler (lock)
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
Conference USA: UTEP
Pacific-10: California
Western Athletic: Utah State
Colonial: Old Dominion
Ivy: Cornell
Metro Atlantic: Siena

Locks (27)

ACC: Duke*, Wake Forest
A-10: Temple*, Richmond, Xavier
Big East: Syracuse*, Villanova, West Virginia, Georgetown, Pittsburgh
Big Ten: Purdue*, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Big 12: Kansas*, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas, Texas A&M, Missouri
Horizon: Butler*
MWC: New Mexico*, BYU
SEC: Kentucky*, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
WCC: Gonzaga*
Teams with an asterisk own their respective conference's automatic bid.

Work To Do (13)

ACC: Maryland, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Virginia Tech
Big East: Louisville, Marquette, Connecticut
Big Ten: Illinois
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa*
MWC: UNLV
SEC: Florida 
WCC: St. Mary's

Of this group, Connecticut, Louisville, Marquette, St. Mary's and Virginia Tech hold the most precarious positions. These four teams could find themselves among either the Last Four In or First Four Out as the clock ticks down . 

That takes care of 61 of the 65 teams. (No, I didn't count wrong, locks Butler and Gonzaga and "work to do" club UNI appear twice.) That leaves me to look at the last four teams in the field and the 11 who have the best shot at replacing them over the next three weeks.

RPI data from Crashing The Dance and reflects games through Wednesday, February 24. All records were updated Friday, February 26 and reflect games against Division I opponents only.

Last Four In

Rhode Island (20-6; 8-5 A-10; RPI: 28): The Rams slip down to the Last Four In group mostly because teams like UConn, Marquette and Florida have moved up, and because of their own struggles. Rhody has not played well of late, snapping a three-game losing streak with a win over Fordham Saturday. Their marquee non-conference win came against fellow bubble team Oklahoma State, and they own respectable victories over Northeastern, Providence and Boston College. However, the Rams' best league win is over Dayton, as they're 0-4 against Temple, Richmond and Xavier, the three A-10 teams who look to be in the best shape right now

Oklahoma State (18-8; 7-6 Big 12; RPI 29): The Cowboys biggest problem is their lack of quality non-conference wins. They lost their two best opportunities —  at Tulsa and to Rhode Island in a semi-home game for the Rams. That means their best non-league wins are the two they picked up in Las Vegas over Utah and Bradley, two teams who aren't going anywhere. A road win over Kansas State is Oklahoma State's best victory in the Big 12, and they missed a golden opportunity to pick up another marquee league win when they lost at struggling Texas by 10 on Wednesday.

UAB (22-5; 10-3 C-USA; RPI: 32; non-conf. RPI: 18): The Blazers are just hanging on, thanks to their early season home wins over lock Butler and fellow bubble team Cincinnati. After Wednesday’s win at UCF, UAB possesses a 11-3 road/neutral record, but that’s a bit deceptive, as the losses came against three of their best four road opponents — Kent State, Memphis and Virginia — none of whom are close to the field. The Blazers will have to close strong to stay in. While Saturday’s home game against Tulane is winnable, the final week — featuring a home date with Memphis and road trip to UTEP, who beat UAB at Bartow Arena — is far more crucial.

Charlotte (19-8; 9-4 A-10; RPI: 55; Non-conf. RPI: 60): During Wednesday's beatdown of St. Joe's, the 49ers resemble the team that just two weeks ago was in the midst of a seven-game win streak. That victory snapped a three-game losing streak. Bobby Lutz’s team will try to get to 20 victories this weekend, as they visit George Washington Saturday. Next week, they have a chance to grab two quality wins to close the season, as they visit Rhode Island and host Richmond, a team they already defeated at the Robins Center. Charlotte’s 9-5 road/neutral mark, featuring wins over the Spiders and Louisville, is a major boost for their hopes. A win over the Rams in Kingston would be a nice statement.

First Four Out

San Diego State (18-8; 9-5 MWC; RPI: 38; Non-conf. RPI: 40):The Aztecs drop out after their Wednesday loss at BYU.  At one point, they were four points away from owning a 10-game win streak, as they lost to BYU by 2 at home and dropped a 2-point OT game at New Mexico. However, the Aztecs will wish they had those two games back, as they currently sit at 2-5 against the RPI Top 50 with no opportunities left before the Mountain West Tournament. The two wins, over New Mexico and UNLV, both came at home. The Aztecs have the weekend off before they close with a winnable home game against Colorado State and a road trip to hapless Air Force.

Cincinnati (16-11; 7-8 Big East; RPI: 57; Non-conf. RPI: 42): The Bearcats would be in over UConn, who they swept. However, after their loss to Marquette Sunday and an uninspiring win over DePaul Wednesday, the Bearcats are 5-7 in their last 12, like the Huskies, but 2-4 in their last six, granted one of those two wins came at UConn. On the other hand, can you guess the last time Mick Cronin’s team won a game against an opponent who’s a lock or near lock? If you said, “UC’s back-to-back victories over Vanderbilt and Maryland in Maui,” you are correct. The Bearcats get a chance to change that fact at West Virginia Saturday. 

Notre Dame (18-10; 7-8 Big East; RPI: 80; Non-conf. RPI: 83): The Irish snapped their three game skid Wednesday, crushing No. 12 Pitt to give them their first win without the still-injured Luke Harangody. Given that the Irish’s three setbacks without Harangody were by a total of six points, you have to imagine that Notre Dame would have won at least two of them if he was healthy. Expect the Committee to keep this in mind, especially as the All-Big East forward should return soon. The Fighting Irish’s closing stretch provides them with more opportunities, as they visit Georgetown Saturday before closing with UConn at home and Marquette on the road. Notre Dame may need to win three of the four, thanks to home losses against Loyola Marymount, Rutgers and St. John’s; a lackluster 1-5 mark against RPI Top 50 teams; and an awful 2-7 road/neutral mark. 

Arizona State (20-8; 10-5 Pac-10; RPI: 58; Non-conf. RPI: 58): The problem for any Pac-10 team that wants to turn itself into an at-large candidate is the schedule. However, the Sun Devils can grab a crucial top 50 win Saturday when they meet conference leader Cal (RPI: 24). While the game with the Golden Bears is a must win for any at-large hopes, ASU cannot afford to drop any of their other remaining games. They succeeded in defeating Stanford Thursday, and face home games against the L.A. schools next week. Currently, the only win the Sun Devils can hang their hat on is a home victory over San Diego State on December 19, their lone top 50 win in five tries. 

Next Four Out

Mississippi State (20-8; 8-5 SEC; RPI: 64; Non-conf. RPI: 79): The SEC West leaders find themselves here by virtue of their sweep of in-state rival Mississippi. The Bulldogs’ resume is a bit thin otherwise, with a win over Old Dominion in South Padre being the non-conference highlight, and losses at Western Kentucky and against Rider in Starkville major blemishes. MSU’s only real shot at a resume-building win comes March 6 at home against Tennessee. The Bulldogs topped Alabama Wednesday and next visit fading South Carolina on Saturday.

Mississippi (18-9; 6-7 SEC; RPI: 66; Non-conf. RPI: 39): The Rebels’ marquee win is better than their archrivals, as they defeated Kansas State by 12 in Puerto Rico before Thanksgiving. Still, not managing to beat the Bulldogs’ once is an issue, considering that’s the difference in the race for a bad division at the moment. Three straight losses, with two coming at home, didn’t help. (See Charlotte above.) However, the Rebels’ were able to beat Auburn Wednesday to end the skid. A road game at tricky Alabama is on the schedule for Saturday, followed by more SEC West SOS-crushing goodness, as Ole Miss has LSU and Arkansas on the slate before the SEC Tournament. 

Washington (17-9; 8-7 Pac-10; RPI: 65; Non-conf. RPI: 24): The Huskies do own home wins over Texas A&M and Cal, but December losses at Texas Tech and against Georgetown in Anaheim are now missed opportunities in a weak bubble year. A sweep at the hands of tourney-ineligible USC, with the home loss coming Thursday doesn’t help either. In terms of building a late case, the Huskies’ schedule is even less helpful than the Sun Devils’. This week, UW travels to Pullman as they attempt to sweep the hoops’ Apple Cup. Next week, a trip to the Oregon schools awaits. Three away games is not the way for a team that owns a 1-6 record in true road games to close. 

Dayton (18-9; 7-6 A-10; RPI: 44; Non-conf. RPI: 17): On Monday, I said the Flyers were another “revolving door” team, after a loss at Duquesne Sunday knocked them out. The door is now pretty much shut and locked (if you can do such a thing with a revolving door after Wednesday night’s loss at Temple. UD’s road/neutral record now stands at 5-8, with the best win coming against Georgia Tech in Puerto Rico way back on November 19 and the best true road victory coming against George Mason on December 8.    

On The Fringe

Minnesota (16-11; 7-8 Big Ten; RPI: 76; Non-conf. RPI: 64): The Golden Gophers’ chances took a hit when they couldn’t beat No. 3 Purdue, who played most of the game without Robbie Hummel, Wednesday night in Minneapolis. The Golden Gophers are now 4-9 this season against the RPI Top 100. Three of those wins came at The Barn, where they defeated Ohio State, Wisconsin and now-out of the picture Northwestern. Minnesota’s nine-point triumph over Butler in Anaheim is useful, but the losses to Portland and Texas A&M that followed aren’t. Neither was the road loss at Miami that followed the California trip. Losses to Indiana (in Bloomington) and Michigan (at home) sting, but the Gophers avenged the IU loss Saturday and can avenge the loss to the Wolverines on March 3 in Ann Arbor. Minnesota’s final chance to make an impression against a Tournament-quality opponent before the Big Ten Tournament comes at Illinois Saturday.

Seton Hall (16-10; 7-8 Big East; RPI: 50; Non-conf. RPI: 71): Remember that string of four games at the end of 2009/start of 2010, where the Pirates lost heartbreakers, including OT games against West Virginia and Virginia Tech? Hall fans are undoubtedly wishing they’d won a couple of those right about now, as those wins would be major boosts to an OK resume. But they didn’t, meaning the Pirates own a 2-9 mark against the RPI Top 50 and a 3-7 road/neutral mark. Those stats aren’t major selling points. One thing Seton Hall has done this season is prove that they can lose to good teams, and they won’t get much of a chance to reverse that down the stretch. Tuesday, they beat Rutgers in the first of two late meetings. Their game against Marquette is their final one against a tourney contender, as they close with a road trip to Rutgers and Providence. 

South Florida (16-11; Big East 6-9; RPI: 67; Non-conf. RPI: 67): The Bulls looked like they had turned the corner with a four-game win streak in late January/early February, a run capped by a win at Georgetown on February 3. But that was a mirage, as they’ve since dropped four of five, including an ugly 16-point loss to St. John’s at home on Saturday. The Bulls seem to have an issue with playing to the level of their competition, as they’re 3-4 vs. the RPI Top 50, and 2-6 against teams rated between 51 and 100. USF couldn’t grab another marquee road win, as they were hammered at Villanova Wednesday. A home game with Providence is on deck for Saturday before the Bulls close with a roadie at DePaul and home game with a UConn team who’s also likely to be desperate for a victory.    

Bubble Games To Watch This Weekend

TV information from Matt Sarz’ College Sports on TV site.

Saturday
Notre Dame at Georgetown, 12 p.m. ET (CBS Regional)
Mississippi at Alabama, 2 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Cincinnati at West Virginia, 2 p.m. ET (Big East Network/Full Court)
Arizona State at California, 3 p.m. ET (FSN/Comcast SportsNet)
Kansas at Oklahoma State, 4 p.m. ET (CBS)
VCU at Old Dominion, 4 p.m. ET (CSN Regional)
Maryland at Virginia Tech, 4 p.m. ET (Raycom Regional/Full Court)
Florida at Georgia, 4 p.m. ET (SEC Network/Full Court)
Mississippi State at South Carolina, 6 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Charlotte at George Washington, 6 p.m. ET (MASN)
Massachusetts at Dayton, 7 p.m. ET (WHIO/CSN Regional)
Minnesota at Illinois, 8 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network)
Washington at Washington State, 10 p.m. ET (FSN Northwest/FCS Pacific)

Sunday
Marquette at Seton Hall, 12 p.m. ET (Big East Network/Full Court)
Louisville at Connecticut, 2 p.m. ET (CBS)