Answering The Big Questions On A WEC v. Strikeforce Heads-Up Showdown

The last few days have been a flurry of different reports and opinions on the developing plans of WEC's first pay-per-view effort and the subsequent news that Strikeforce's next CBS event will likely share the same date of April 24.  Over at Bloody Elbow, Luke Thomas spoke to WEC general manager Reed Harris who filled in some of the details on the decision to go to PPV.

There seem to be a list of things about this situation that is getting overlooked by MMA fans.

Is Strikeforce actively "counter-programming?"

This is a very tricky question to answer and it needs to be broken down into parts.

1) Strikeforce is not telling CBS when shows will be held on the network.  CBS is taking a beating in the ratings when they hold MMA events, finishing last of the major networks is not something that is taken lightly.  It is entirely likely that CBS handed down the date as their "ideal" slot.

2) April has been the target month for the second Strikeforce on CBS show for quite some time now.  April 3 is the first game of the NCAA Final Four, which is broadcast on CBS, so that date is out.  The 10th is UFC 112 which is shaping up to be a mega-card.  If Scott Coker has any input into what dates they can and can't run on, he would tell them to stay far away from going heads-up with this card.  The 17th is a Super Six boxing card on Showtime.  With Showtime being CBS owned there was no chance that they would put the two combat shows against each other.  The only date possible that doesn't put Strikeforce up against a major UFC card?  April 24.

Is $44.95 too much for a WEC PPV?

From his conversation with Reed Harris, Luke Thomas got the following:

4. As for the price point, the decision to place the cost at $44.95 "was made corporately". Harris insists extensive research was done into PPV watching and purchasing habits. He argues the internal data they received gives them the confidence to move forward with the PPV effort, but did not elaborate beyond that. He also insisted given what the event offered, it was worth the cost of a UFC PPV.

5. Here's a clever twist: the event will be known as "UFC Presents...WEC 48: Aldo vs. Faber". When asked about the extent to which the UFC would use their marketing and PR muscle to assist the WEC, assurances were made that both organizations would work together to properly promote and cross promote the effort. No specific details were offered as to promotional events, branding, event signage or other items at the time of the call.

Clearly they're trying to frame this as a "UFC presented" event to establish in the buying public's mind that it is worth dropping the same price they drop for the brand leader, on what is always seen as its "little brother."

The main realization that most MMA fans need to come to is that the success threshold for a WEC event is much lower than a UFC card.  Judging by the price point of $44.95, 50,000 buys would bring in $2,247,500.  Assuming roughly 60% takeout by cable/satilite companies/other sources there would be a leftover take-in of $899,000.  The total disclosed fighter payout for WEC 46 was $272,000.  Now we can assume somewhere around a 50% increase in the payouts based on the rumored card being much more stacked top-to-bottom than the average WEC event.  That brings the total payout of $408,000.  $899,000 - $408,000 = $491,000.  This doesn't take in ticket sales, building rental, production costs...etc.  But it would seem they would have to lose close to half a million dollars in these other areas for the event to be a "loss" should they manage to do 50k in PPV buys.

Dave Meltzer agrees with this idea:

They were going to budget the show to where they would come out okay with 50,000 to 60,000 buys (that was the level they were hoping for, less than 50K and they weren’t going to be happy, at 75K they’d be doing cartwheels).

What impact will a head's-up battle have on both companies?

Fan opinion seems to be leaning fairly heavily against paying for a WEC event when, to this point, fans have gotten to see them for free.  Strikeforce on the same night severely neutralizes the possibility that fans will fall victim to a last minute whim to watch some fights and hit the order button.

A WEC pay-per-view leans heavily on the hardcore MMA fanbase.  But this community only gets two to three opportunities a year to watch Fedor Emelianenko fight.  Will they pass up Fedor for free in favor of Faber vs. Aldo?  A fairly large percentage of the hardcore base will not, the real question is how big that percentage will be.

The other, very frightening, part of a WEC PPV is just how much it relies on Urijah Faber to be involved.  If something, like Urijah re-breaking his hand in training, keeps him from competing, the show will be in significant danger of doing very poorly.

The situation is very multi-layered and it will be interesting to see the strategy taken by each promotion as they head toward this potential showdown.