Bubble Watch Update: No Change In Last Four In Heading Into Wednesday

Here is the updated look at the teams fighting for the last few spots in the NCAA field. Click here for my Wednesday bracket projection.

Thanks to Butler's win the Horizon League final Tuesday evening, the only change to this list is the removal of UConn after their 21-point loss to St. John's in the Big East Tournament.

Click any team name that appears as a link to visit that school's SB Nation blog.

RPI data from Crashing The Dance and reflects games through Monday, March 8. All records reflect games played against Division I opponents through Tuesday, March 9.

Last Four In

Seton Hall (19-11; 9-9 Big East; RPI: 55; Non-conf. RPI: 78): Remember that string of four games at the end of 2009/start of 2010, where the Pirates lost heartbreakers, including OT games against West Virginia and Virginia Tech? Hall fans are undoubtedly wishing they’d won a couple of those right about now, as those wins would be major boosts to an OK resume. But they didn’t, meaning the Pirates own a 2-8 mark against the RPI Top 50 and a 5-7 road/neutral mark.  However, they have four wins against teams I have in my Monday projection. That's a boost. The Pirates finished strong, wrapping up a sweeping Rutgers and winning at Providence to close the regular season. They beat the Friars again in the Big East opening round Tuesday, but the Friars mounted a comeback that exposed the Pirates' defense. But the Hall held on, meaning a game with a hungry Notre Dame team is on deck for Wednesday. Given how the first meeting between the two went, perhaps another shootout is in the cards.

San Diego State (20-8; 11-5 MWC; RPI: 36; Non-conf. RPI: 36):The Aztecs won their home finale Wednesday night over Colorado State, then followed that victory up with a win at Air Force Saturday. At one point, SDSU was four points away from owning a 10-game win streak, as they lost to BYU by 2 at home and dropped a 2-point OT game at New Mexico. The Aztecs will wish they had those two games back, as they currently sit at 2-5 against the RPI Top 50 (both wins, over New Mexico and UNLV, came at home). The fourth-seeded Aztecs open the Mountain West Tournament with a game against fifth-seeded Colorado State Thursday. Top seeded New Mexico is their potential semifinal opponent.

South Florida (20-11; Big East 9-9; RPI: 61; Non-conf. RPI: 69): The Bulls knocked off UConn Saturday to burst the Huskies' bubble and move a little closer to booking a place of their own. The Bulls seem to have an issue with playing to the level of their competition, as they’re 3-5 vs. the RPI Top 50, but only 2-5 against teams rated between 51 and 100.  They own wins over Pitt, Georgetown and Seton Hall, but a sweep at the hands of Notre Dame, and losses to St. John's, Central Michigan and South Carolina are blemishes. USF will probably need to win twice in the Big East Tournament. That won't be easy, as the Bulls only grabbed the nine seed. USF knocked off DePaul Tuesday, and will try to beat Georgetown for the second time this season Wednesday afternoon.. 

Illinois (17-13; 10-8 Big Ten; RPI: 72; Non-conf. RPI: 117): The The Fighting Illini's resume has some good points (win at Wisconsin, comeback over Clemson, home wins over Michigan State and Vanderbilt) and some bad (home loss to Minnesota, neutral site losses to Bradley, Utah, semi-away loss to Georgia). They'd likely be in, but they've dropped three in a row, which isn't the way to head into the Big Ten Tournament. Making matters worse, they play Wisconsin, who they lost to at home on Sunday, in the quarterfinals Friday..

First Four Out

Mississippi (21-9; 9-7 SEC; RPI: 57; Non-conf. RPI: 35): While Miss. State is fading, Ole Miss is winning late, as they closed the regular season with four straight wins, capped by a close victory over Arkansas in Fayetteville on Saturday. The Rebels’ marquee win is better than archrivals' Mississippi State's, as they defeated Kansas State by 12 in Puerto Rico before Thanksgiving. Still, not managing to beat the Bulldogs once is an issue, considering that’s the difference in the race for the weaker division of the SEC. For now, the Rebels are just outside, but the SEC Tournament will ultimately determine their fate. As the two seed out of the West, Ole Miss will face either Tennessee or LSU in Friday's quarterfinals.

Arizona State (22-9; 12-6 Pac-10; RPI: 54; Non-conf. RPI: 56): The Sun Devils swept past the L.A. schools to lock up the second seed in this week's Pac-10 Tournament. Thanks to what else has gone on around the country, they may only need to make the final to get in, which speaks volumes about the quality of this season's bubble. Currently, the only win the Sun Devils can hang their hat on is a home victory over San Diego State on December 19, their lone top 50 win in six tries. ASU begins Pac-10 Tournament play against seventh-seeded Stanford on Thursday.

Washington (20-9; 10-7 Pac-10; RPI: 52; Non-conf. RPI: 28): Much like the Sun Devils, the Huskies have some life, as they own home wins over Texas A&M and Cal. However, December losses at Texas Tech and against Georgetown in Anaheim are missed opportunities in a weak bubble year. Washington swept the Oregon schools to finish the regular season strong and lock up the third seed in the Pac-10 Tournament. They'll face sixth-seeded Oregon State again in the quarterfinals on Thursday. If both ASU and UW make the semifinal, that game could be for a bid.

Dayton (20-11; 8-8 A-10; RPI: 50; Non-conf. RPI: 14):  The Flyers will need to make a run in Atlantic City to go dancing after Saturday's home loss to St. Louis. Their road/neutral record stands at 5-9 after Thursday night's setback at Richmond, a game the Flyers were in control of until the last 10 minutes. The Flyers' the best win came against Georgia Tech in Puerto Rico way back on November 19 and the best true road victory came against George Mason on December 8. The Flyers are the seventh-seeded team in the A-10 Tournament, and they'll face second-seeded Xavier in Atlantic City Friday, as they knocked off George Washington in the opening round on Tuesday.

Next Four Out

UAB (23-7; 11-5 C-USA; RPI: 40; non-conf. RPI: 17): The Blazers looked like they were going to grab a valuable road win at Conference USA regular season champ UTEP Saturday, but they let the Miners off the hook.  They can no longer rely on their early season home wins over lock Butler and fellow bubble team Cincinnati. UAB owns a 11-4 road/neutral record, but that’s a bit deceptive, as the losses came against four of their best five road opponents — Kent State, Memphis, UTEP and Virginia. The Blazers slipped down to the three seed for the conference tournament in Tulsa. They'll meet either Southern Miss or Tulane in the quarterfinal Thursday. The bad news for UAB is that they're on Memphis' side of the bracket, and the Tigers won both regular season meetings.

Memphis (23-8; 13-3 C-USA; RPI: 47: Non-conf. RPI: 92): The Tigers do own a 7-5 mark against the RPI Top 100; however, only two of those wins came against a Top 50 opponent, the sweep over UAB. Memphis' two best non-league wins came against IUPUI and Oakland. A 7-5 road/neutral mark is OK, but the best of those wins (after the win at UAB) came against Marshall and Tulsa. Josh Pastner's club fattened up on Division I's worst teams, going 15-2 against teams ranked 151+ in the RPI, losing at UMass and SMU. The Tigers are the two seed in the C-USA Tournament, meaning they'll face either Houston or East Carolina in the quarterfinals Thursday. I still think they need to win the auto bid to dance.

Rhode Island (22-8; 9-7 A-10; RPI: 39; Non-conf. RPI: 5): After Saturday's loss to UMass, the Rams are probably headed to the NIT. They can change that with a run through the A-10 Tournament, which they started with a win over St. Joseph's on Tuesday night. That sets up a quarterfinal with St, Louis (who beat the Rams in St. Louis) Friday. Rhody's marquee non-conference win came against Oklahoma State, and they own respectable victories over Northeastern, Providence and Boston College. However, none of those three are likely to dance. Making matters worse is the fact the Rams' best league win is over Dayton, as they're 0-4 against Temple, Richmond and Xavier, the three A-10 teams who are in the best shape. 

Mississippi State (21-10; 9-7 SEC; RPI: 68; Non-conf. RPI: 76): The wheels came off the Bulldogs at the wrong time, as they finished the regular season with back-to-back losses to Auburn (inexcusable) and Tennessee (forgivable, but not in the manner in which MSU fell). The Bulldogs' resume is a bit thin outside of their sweep of archrival (and fellow bubble team) Ole Miss, as a win over Old Dominion in South Padre is the non-conference highlight and losses at Western Kentucky and against Rider in Starkville are major blemishes. As the top seed in the West, the Bulldogs have a bye to the quarterfinals at the SEC Tournament. They'll meet the Florida-Auburn winner on Friday in Nashville.

On The Fringe

UConn falls off the board after their loss to St. John's Tuesday.

Minnesota (18-12; 9-9 Big Ten; RPI: 78; Non-conf. RPI: 60): After grabbing a win at Illinois last Saturday, the Golden Gophers made a huge jump. Tuesday night, they gave it all back with an abysmal performance at Michigan, where they lost by 28. The defeat was costly as it cost the Gophers a shot at a bye in the Big Ten Tournament. The Golden Gophers are 5-9 this season against the RPI Top 100. Three of those wins came at The Barn, where they defeated Ohio State, Wisconsin and now-out of the picture Northwestern. Minnesota's nine-point triumph over Butler in Anaheim is useful, but the losses to Portland and Texas A&M that followed aren't. Neither was the road loss at Miami days after the California trip. Losses to Indiana (in Bloomington) the Michigan sweep sting. Minnesota beat Iowa on Sunday to close the regular season, but they'll need to make a run in Indianapolis. The Gophers open with Penn State on Thursday, with Michigan State awaiting in the quarterfinals if they win.

St. Louis (19-10; 11-5 A-10; RPI: 83; Non-conf. RPI: 200): There are two reasons why the Billikens aren't closer to the field: their 5-7 road/neutral record, and the fact their best non-conference win came against Big 12 bottom feeder Nebraska. Still, SLU grabbed the four seed, and a bye, for the A-10 Tournament after Saturday's win at Dayton. They'll face Rhode Island in Atlantic City on Friday.

Wichita State (23-9; 10-2; RPI: 45; non-conf. RPI: 87): The Shockers couldn't take themselves off the bubble aas they fell to Northern Iowa in Sunday's MVC championship game. The Shockers best two wins, over the Panthers and Texas Tech, came at home. Like UNI, Wichita State also lost to Evansville and Bradley in the league, but the Shockers also fell to Drake and Creighton once. All four of those losses came on the road, meaning WSU has a mediocre 7-8 road/neutral mark.