With two days of action left before the bracket is revealed, the at-large picture is starting to clear up a little. Still, there are going to be many anxious Bubble Watch teams sweating it out. That includes one team who I had pegged as safe after Thursday's action.
If a team's name appears as a link, click it to visit that school's SB Nation blog for more coverage and analysis.
Georgia Tech leaves Bubble Watch after they held off Maryland, 69-64 (recap), to advance to the ACC semifinals. They'll face, 11th seed N.C. State, a team they beat by two at home on February 6. If they lose, they could be right back in this post tomorrow.
Several teams still have their fate in their own hands. Five Bubble Watch teams can end any drama and rest easy tonight by claiming their conference crowns this evening. Four can move on to Sunday championship games.
California, who should be in as an at-large knocked off UCLA, 85-72 (recap) in their Pac-10 semifinal. The Golden Bears will face "Last Four In" team Washington in Saturday's final (6 p.m. ET, CBS). The Huskies defeated Stanford, 79-64 (recap), to stay in the hunt. This will be the rubber match of the season series, as both won at home during the regular season.
San Diego State looks a bit safer now, even if I still have them as a "Last Four In" team after their 72-69 win over New Mexico (recap) in the Mountain West semifinals Friday. The Aztecs face host UNLV for the title Saturday (7 p.m. ET, Versus). If this was last year, Steve Fisher's team would probably feel better about their chances, as they went 3-0 against the Rebels, and grabbed two wins at Thomas & Mack. This season, the two split, with each defending their home court.
Conference USA should be a one-bid league as UTEP bounced host Tulsa, 75-61 (recap), in the semis. The problem for the Miners is that they must face Houston in Saturday's final (11:30 a.m., CBS). The Cougars were the only conference team to beat UTEP in the regular season, winning by seven at home. However, the Miners did beat Tom Penders' team at the Haskins Center.
Utah State defeated fourth-seeded Louisiana Tech, 85-55 (recap) to move on to the WAC Final. There they won't have to play two seed Nevada on their home floor. The Wolfpack fell to third-seeded New Mexico State, a team who split the season series with Utah State. The Logan Aggies won by 18 at home to close the regular season. The rubber match will be at 10 p.m. ET (ESPN2).
Illinois opened up a lead on Wisconsin and held on to grab a 58-54 Big Ten semifinal win (recap). That gives the Illini a season series win over the Badgers. Illinois will next try to beat Ohio State for the first time this season in the semifinals (1:30 p.m. ET, CBS).
Rhode Island completely burst St. Louis' bubble in Friday's Atlantic 10 quarterfinals, 63-47 (recap). The Rams next play top seed Temple (1 p.m. ET, CBS College Sports). The Owls won both regular season meetings, following up a four-point overtime win in Kingston with a 22-point triumph in Philadelphia.
Minnesota is very close to booking their ticket after they topped Michigan State in the Big Ten quarterfinals, 72-67 in overtime (recap). The Gophers really need to beat Purdue in today's semifinal though (4 p.m. ET, CBS). The Boilermakers won both meetings, but only won at Williams Arena by one on February 24, the night they lost Robbie Hummel for the season.
Mississippi State likely needs to win the SEC Tournament to make the field, even after they knocked off Florida in Friday's quarterfinals, 75-69 (recap). The Bulldogs became the first West Division team to beat one of the top four from the East with that victory. They'll need to repeat that feat twice to dance. Vanderbilt is up first in the semifinals (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS).
This next group of teams can only watch and wait, as their fate is out of their hands.
Louisville should be in even though they lost to Cincinnati in the Big East Second Round Wednesday.
Wake Forest should also hold on to a spot even though they were slammed by Miami in the ACC Opening Round Thursday.
Florida will have to sweat it out after their loss to Mississippi State Friday. The fact they came back to avoid a blowout against the Bulldogs helps.
So much for promoting Virginia Tech out of Bubble Watch. The Hokies drop back down after they fell to Miami, 70-65, in their ACC Quarterfinal Friday (recap).
Mississippi really needed to beat Tennessee in the SEC quarterfinals to have a chance, but they fell 76-65 (recap).
Keep an eye on William & Mary, even though they lost to Old Dominion in the Colonial Athletic Association final Monday. They have enough quality wins to make a solid case, but some headscratching losses may keep them out.
UAB is likely on the outside looking in after they failed to beat Southern Mississippi in the Conference USA Quarterfinals Thursday.
Arizona State looks to be out of the running after they lost their Pac-10 Quarterfinal to Stanford.
Seton Hall and South Florida are both likely finished after they lost Big East Second Round games Wednesday.
Charlotte is off the board after they lost to Massachusetts at home in the Atlantic 10 Opening Round Tuesday.
Cincinnati had a chance to win at the end of regulation, but Dion Dixon couldn't hold on to the ball and Da'Sean Butler banked in a three when time expired to give West Virginia a 54-51 win in the Big East Quarterfinals Thursday, bursting the Bearcats bubble.
Dayton once again couldn't close out a close game, as they fell to Xavier, 78-73 (recap), in the Atlantic 10 quarterfinals Friday. That was a fatal loss for the Flyers.
Memphis, like UAB, is finished, as they lost their Conference USA Quarterfinal against Houston.
Wichita State lost their chance when they fell to Northern Iowa in the Missouri Valley final Sunday..
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