Bubble Watch Update: Ole Miss Out; Rhode Island In; Minnesota Knocking On The Door

Here is the updated look at how the NCAA Tournament field stacks up heading into Saturday's conference tournament action. Five teams, including two from the Pac-10 can get themselves in with wins in the league finals today. 

Click here for my Saturday bracket. For more on Saturday's games of importance, check my preview/recap post.

Click any team name that appears as a link to visit that school's SB Nation blog.

One-Bid Leagues (20)

America East, Atlantic Sun (East Tennessee State), Big Sky (Montana), Big South (Winthrop), Big West, Colonial (Old Dominion), Horizon (Butler),  Ivy (Cornell), Metro Atlantic (Siena), Mid-American, Mid-Eastern, Missouri Valley (Northern Iowa) Northeast (Robert Morris), Ohio Valley (Murray State), Patriot (Lehigh), Southern (Wofford), Southland, Southwestern, Summit (Oakland), Sun Belt (North Texas)

Shot At Two (3)

Conference USA: UTEP (Work To Do)
Pacific-10: California (Work To Do)
Western Athletic: Utah State (Work To Do)

Locks (34)

ACC: Duke*, Maryland, Florida State, Clemson, Wake Forest
A-10: Temple*, Richmond, Xavier
Big East: Syracuse, West Virginia*, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame
Big Ten: Purdue*, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Big 12: Kansas*, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Missouri, Oklahoma State
MWC: New Mexico, BYU, UNLV*
SEC: Kentucky*, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
WCC: Gonzaga, St. Mary's*

Teams with an asterisk hold their respective conference's automatic bid at the moment.

Not Quite Safe (7)

ACC:  Georgia Tech
Big East: Louisville
Big Ten: Illinois 
C-USA: UTEP
Pac-10: California
SEC: Florida
WAC: Utah State

That takes care of 61 of the 65 teams. (No, I didn't miscount. Three "Not Quite Safe" clubs, Cal, UTEP and Utah State, appear twice.) That leaves me to look at the last four teams in the field and the eight who the best chance to replace them over the final two days.

RPI data from Crashing The Dance and reflects games through Friday, March 12. All records reflect games played against Division I opponents through Friday, March 12.

After Friday's action, Dayton and all four teams considered "On The Fringe" -- Cincinnati, Memphis, St. Louis and Wichita State are off they board.

Last Four In

San Diego State (22-8; 11-5 MWC; RPI: 25; Non-conf. RPI: 37):The Aztecs look to be in good shape after they defeated New Mexico in the Mountain West semifinals Friday night. That means the Aztecs are 3-5 against the RPI top 50, with two wins over the 11th-rated Lobos. They can grab a fourth, and end any bubble drama in the process, by knocking off No. 42 UNLV in Saturday's final.

Virginia Tech (23-8; 10-6 ACC; RPI: 55; Non-conf. RPI: 93): Florida would be here instead of the Hokies, had Virginia Tech managed to defeat Miami in their ACC quarterfinal on Friday. A 10-6 ACC record should be more than good enough, but the Hokies' abysmal non-conference schedule means they'll sweat. Virginia Tech owns a staggering nine wins over teams ranked below 200 in the RPI (plus one over Penn State, ranked 193rd), with three wins over teams below 300. Florida has seven (and three against 301+), but they have non-conference wins over Michigan State and Florida State. Virginia Tech's best non-conference win, Seton Hall, pales in comparison.

Washington (22-9; 11-7 Pac-10; RPI: 46; Non-conf. RPI: 22): The Huskies grabbed a win over Stanford in the Pac-10 semifinals on Friday, meaning they can book a place in the Tournament with a win over top seed (and likely at-large) California in Saturday's final. Washington owns home wins over Texas A&M and Cal. However, December losses at Texas Tech and against Georgetown in Anaheim are missed opportunities in a weak bubble year. 

Rhode Island (23-8; 9-7 A-10; RPI: 38; Non-conf. RPI: 6): The Rams sneak in after they grabbed a win over St. Louis in the Atlantic 10 quarterfinals. Depending on results elsewhere, they could end up right back outside if they fall to Temple for the third time this season in Saturday's semifinals. The Rams' best league win is over now-eliminated Dayton, as they're 0-4 against Temple, Richmond and Xavier, the three A-10 teams who are in the best shape for bids. Rhode Island's marquee non-conference win came against Oklahoma State, and they own respectable victories over Northeastern, Providence and Boston College. However, none of those three are likely to dance. They get the edge over Minnesota because of fewer bad losses from an RPI perspective and a better road/neutral mark. However, if the Golden Gophers can beat Purdue in the Big Ten semis on Saturday, all bets are off.

First Four Out

Minnesota (20-12; 9-9 Big Ten; RPI: 68; Non-conf. RPI: 60): The Golden Gophers look to be making the needed run through the Big Ten Tournament, as a Friday win over Michigan State sets up a crucial semifinal game against Purdue. Remember that the Golden Gophers only lost by one to the Boilermakers at Williams Arena in a game marred by Robbie Hummel's knee injury.  Minnesota is now 5-8 this season against the RPI Top 100, with two of those wins coming at The Barn, where they defeated Ohio State and Wisconsin. They also beat Illinois on the road and Butler and Michigan State on neutral courts. A 15-4 record against teams rated 101+ doesn't help the case, particularly the sweep at the hands of Michigan and a loss to Maurice Creek-less Indiana in Bloomington. A 6-9 road/neutral mark is also a negative, but Minnesota has a chance to improve upon that over this weekend.

Mississippi State (212-10; 9-7 SEC; RPI: 63; Non-conf. RPI: 71): The Bulldogs became the first SEC West team to beat one of the top four from the East when they defeated Florida Friday. They may need to grab two more wins to go dancing, however. Vanderbilt awaits in Saturday's semifinals, with Kentucky or Tennessee a potential final opponent. The Bulldogs' resume is a bit thin outside of their sweep of archrival (and fellow bubble team) Ole Miss, as a win over Old Dominion in South Padre is the non-conference highlight and losses at Western Kentucky and against Rider in Starkville are major blemishes. 

William & Mary (21-10; 12-6 CAA: RPI: 56; Non-conf. RPI: 13): Remember back in 2006, when the Committee stunned pretty much everyone by taking Air Force out of nowhere? Four years later, could the Tribe fill a similar role if enough teams fall by the wayside over the weekend? With road wins over Maryland and Wake Forest and a home win over Richmond, W&M has more quality wins than many teams on this list. However, three bad losses (at James Madison, Towson and UNC Wilmington) hurt their case, as does a late BracketBuster loss at Iona. From the eye test perspective, the fact the Tribe can be a little too reliant on perimeter shooting (see the closing moments of the CAA final) is another issue.

Mississippi (21-10; 9-7 SEC; RPI: 57; Non-conf. RPI: 33): The Rebels’ hurt their chances with a loss to Tennessee in Friday's SEC quarterfinals. Ole Miss' marquee win is better than archrival Mississippi State's, as they defeated Kansas State by 12 in Puerto Rico before Thanksgiving. They also own a helpful win against UTEP on a semi-home court in the Memphis suburbs. Still, not managing to beat the Bulldogs once is an issue, considering that was the difference in the race for the weaker division of the SEC. 

Next Four Out

Arizona State (22-10; 12-6 Pac-10; RPI: 64; Non-conf. RPI: 55): The Sun Devils fell to seventh-seeded Stanford in the quarterfinals of the Pac-10 Tournament Thursday, all but ending their chances. ASU really needed to make the final to have a realistic shot. Currently, the only win the Sun Devils can hang their hat on is a home victory over San Diego State on December 19, their lone top 50 win on the season. 

Seton Hall (19-12; 9-9 Big East; RPI: 59; Non-conf. RPI: 80): The Pirates' strong finish may be for naught after Wednesday's loss against Notre Dame. On Selection Sunday, Pirates fans will likely be rueing the string of four games at the end of 2009/start of 2010, where their team lost heartbreakers, including OT games against West Virginia and Virginia Tech. Those wins would have been major boosts to an OK resume, especially as the Pirates own a somewhat unlucky  3-8 mark against the RPI Top 50. The Pirates did finish strong, but two wins over Rutgers and another pair over Providence won't do much to convince the Committee. Unfortunately, a win over Notre Dame would have.

South Florida (20-12; Big East 9-9; RPI: 67; Non-conf. RPI: 70): The Bulls' hopes were dashed Wednesday when they couldn't grab a second win over Georgetown. However, USF's offensive performance (or lack thereof) in two games at Madison Square Garden was more damaging than the loss to the Hoyas was by itself. The Bulls didn't hit a single jump shot in their win over DePaul Tuesday and only hit one three (near the end) against Georgetown. The Bulls are now 3-5 vs. the RPI Top 50, and only 3-6 against teams rated between 51 and 100.  While they own wins over Pitt, Georgetown and Seton Hall, a sweep at the hands of Notre Dame, and losses to St. John's, Central Michigan and South Carolina are serious blemishes. 

UAB (23-8; 11-5 C-USA; RPI: 43; non-conf. RPI: 17): The Blazers were embarrassed by Southern Mississippi in the Conference USA quarterfinals Thursday, meaning they're finished. They had a good chance to make the final with Memphis' defeat at the hands of Houston earlier in the day. Early season home wins over lock Butler and fellow bubble team Cincinnati won't help much now. UAB does own a 11-5 road/neutral record, but that’s a bit deceptive, as four of the losses came against four of their best five road opponents — Kent State, Memphis, UTEP and Virginia — and the fifth was Thursday's setback.