Bubble Watch Update: Florida And Virginia Tech Look For A Kentucky Win Sunday

Here is the updated look at how the NCAA Tournament field stacks up heading into Selection Sunday. As the picture is far clearer now, I've cut out the "Next Four Out" group. 

Click here for my Sunday morning bracket (forthcoming). For more on Sunday's games of importance, check my preview and recap post.

Click any team name that appears as a link to visit that school's SB Nation blog.

One-Bid Leagues (20)

America East (Vermont), Atlantic Sun (East Tennessee State), Big Sky (Montana), Big South (Winthrop), Big West, Colonial (Old Dominion), Horizon (Butler), Ivy (Cornell), Metro Atlantic (Siena), Mid-American (Ohio), Mid-Eastern (Morgan State), Missouri Valley (Northern Iowa) Northeast (Robert Morris), Ohio Valley (Murray State), Patriot (Lehigh), Southern (Wofford), Southland (Sam Houston State), Southwestern (Arkansas-Pine Bluff), Summit (Oakland), Sun Belt (North Texas)

Shot At Two (3)

Conference USA: Houston*
Pacific-10: Washington* 
Western Athletic: New Mexico State*

Locks (34)

ACC: Duke*, Maryland, Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest
A-10: Temple*, Richmond, Xavier
Big East: Syracuse, West Virginia*, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Louisville
Big Ten: Purdue*, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Big 12: Kansas*, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Missouri, Oklahoma State
MWC: New Mexico, BYU, UNLV*
SEC: Kentucky*, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
WCC: Gonzaga, St. Mary's*

Teams with an asterisk hold their respective conference's automatic bid at the moment.

That takes care of 60 of the 65 teams. That leaves me to look at the last five teams in the field and the four who the best chance to replace them.

RPI data from Crashing The Dance and reflects games through Saturday, March 13. All records reflect games played against Division I opponents through Saturday, March 13.

After Saturday's action, Rhode Island, Mississippi and the "Next Four Out" teams are off the board.

Last Five In

California (23-10; 13-5 Pac-10; RPI: 20; Non-conf. RPI: 10): The Golden Bears would be safely in the field had they managed to beat Washington in the Pac-10 Tournament final on Saturday. However, they didn't, so they're now at the mercy of the Committee. Cal is likely to get credit for their conference title, but they don't really have much more to fall back on. The Bears have only two top 50 wins in eight chances (home wins over Washington, who they lost to twice, and Murray State), and are 4-1 against teams ranked 51-100. However, since the Pac-10 struggled as a whole this year, the bulk of Cal's wins came against teams ranked between 101 and 200. Cal will get some credit for the fact Theo Robertson was injured during a difficult non-conference stretch, but they may not have beaten Syracuse, Ohio State and New Mexico with him in the lineup.

Minnesota (21-12; 9-9 Big Ten; RPI: 59; Non-conf. RPI: 60): The Golden Gophers made an absolute statement in Indianapolis on Saturday, as they crushed Purdue in their Big Ten semifinal. They can end their bubble drama by beating Ohio State Sunday, but back-to-back victories over Michigan State and the Boilermakers on a neutral floor should be enough. Minnesota is now 6-8 this season against the RPI Top 100, with two of those wins coming at The Barn, where they defeated Ohio State and Wisconsin. They also beat Illinois on the road and Butler on a neutral courts. A 15-4 record against teams rated 101+, particularly the sweep at the hands of Michigan and a loss to Maurice Creek-less Indiana in Bloomington, doesn't help their case. The Gophers' road/neutral mark now stands at 7-9 road/neutral mark, not great, but there are some quality wins in the group.

Utah State (26-7; 14-2 WAC; RPI: 30; Non-conf. RPI: 56): The Aggies are another team that didn't have a great Saturday, as they fell to their Aggie rivals, New Mexico State, in the WAC final. That means they're not locked into the field. The Aggies did take advantage of two of their three opportunities against teams in the RPI Top 50, beating BYU and Wichita State. However, they fell to St. Mary's three days after they beat the Cougars. A 10-6 road/neutral record is a plus, but the Blue Aggies lost three of their best five true road games (at New Mexico State, Northeastern and Louisana Tech). Plus, they fell at Long Beach State and Utah. Additionally, before falling to NMSU, the Aggies had won 17 in a row.

UTEP (26-6; 15-1 C-USA; RPI: 38; Non-conf. RPI: 135): The Miners blew their chance to book an automatic bid, as they looked lost in the final moments against Houston in the C-USA final Saturday. They fall all the way down here because, upon closer inspection, their profile looks a lot like Memphis'. The Miners are 8-4 against the RPI Top 100, but only one of those wins, a game at New Mexico State, came against a team that's on the board. UTEP lost home games to BYU, New Mexico State (the local rivals play twice), a roadie at Texas Tech, and a semi-road game to Ole Miss. Plus, they lost twice to Houston. On the other hand, the Miners did win their other 17 conference games, which should be enough to keep them in.

Virginia Tech (23-8; 10-6 ACC; RPI: 58; Non-conf. RPI: 92): The Hokies wouldn't be here had they managed to defeat Miami in their ACC quarterfinal on Friday. In fact, they were in the field until New Mexico State won the WAC title. A 10-6 ACC record should be more than good enough, but the Hokies' abysmal non-conference schedule means they're in serious trouble. Virginia Tech owns a staggering nine wins over teams ranked below 200 in the RPI (plus one over Penn State, ranked 193rd), with three wins over teams below 300. Florida has seven (and three against 301+), but they have non-conference wins over Michigan State and Florida State. Virginia Tech's best non-conference win, Seton Hall, pales in comparison. On the other hand, Virginia Tech has finished better, winning seven of their last 12 (including a a 3-2 mark against teams in the field), while Florida is 6-6 and 1-3 against teams on the board.

First Four Out

Florida (21-12; 9-7 SEC; RPI: 56; Non-conf. RPI: 75): Florida's problem of late has been an inability to close games. The Gators have dropped four of their last five, and all four could have been victories had the offense not disappeared for stretches late. Billy Donovan's team is 3-8 against the RPI Top 50, but two of those wins came all the way back in November (at home against FSU and over Michigan State in Atlantic City). The other came against Tennessee in Gainesville. An 8-8 road/neutral record is OK. If Florida gets in, it will be because of an upgraded non-conference schedule, which also featured games against Richmond and Xavier (both losses). 

Mississippi State (23-10; 9-7 SEC; RPI: 54; Non-conf. RPI: 69): The Bulldogs became the first SEC West team to beat one of the top four from the East when they defeated Florida Friday. They followed that victory up with a second over Vanderbilt Saturday. If they grab a third, over Kentucky on Sunday, the Bulldogs will be home clear as they automatic bid owner. Mississippi State may need it as their resume is a bit thin outside of this late run and a sweep of archrival Ole Miss. A win over Old Dominion in South Padre is the non-conference highlight and losses at Western Kentucky and against Rider in Starkville are major blemishes. If the entire "body of work" is important, the Bulldogs aren't a Tournament team as of yet.

Illinois (18-14; 10-8 Big Ten; RPI: 70; Non-conf. RPI: 121): The The Fighting Illini's resume has some good points (two wins at Wisconsin, comeback over Clemson, home wins over Michigan State and Vanderbilt) and some bad (home loss to Minnesota, neutral site losses to Bradley, Utah, semi-away loss to Georgia). They looked to be in, but their inability to close the deal against Ohio State Saturday, especially when compared to how Minnesota blew the doors off Purdue, was not helpful.

William & Mary (21-10; 12-6 CAA: RPI: 57; Non-conf. RPI: 12): Remember back in 2006, when the Committee stunned pretty much everyone by taking Air Force out of nowhere? Four years later, could the Tribe fill a similar role if enough teams fall by the wayside over the weekend? With road wins over Maryland and Wake Forest and a home win over Richmond, W&M has more quality wins than many teams on this list. However, three bad losses (at James Madison, Towson and UNC Wilmington) hurt their case, as does a late BracketBuster loss at Iona. From the eye test perspective, the fact the Tribe can be a little too reliant on perimeter shooting (see the closing moments of the CAA final) is another issue.