Updated throughout the day with quick takes from staff.
The Opening Pitch: Is it me, or is this NCAA Tournament field teed up to be top-heavy -- and chalk-heavy? Maybe I'm just still feeling burned after last year, where I tried to get cute and had my worst bracket-picking performance ever.
This year, I'm going with an "Occam's Razor" strategy -- at least as it relates to picking a Final Four: If it seems obvious, do it. And this year, the top teams aren't just clearly great; the ladder seems stacked to cater to them.
As obvious as North Carolina seemed a year ago, you would have to be nuts to pick against Kansas in this field. Ironically, KU seems to have the toughest region of any 1-seed.
I was ready to pick a Syracuse-Kansas final ... right up until the Orange were mystifyingly paired with Kansas as the 4th 1-seed. I still think Syracuse blows through their region.
On the other side of the bracket, I feel the same way about Kentucky that I feel about Kansas: Despite little NCAA Tournament experience, UK will overwhelm its bracket with inside size and John Wall.
But it's no fun to go with the all-1 Final Four. That's why it's so great that Duke earned its way to a 1-seed; you can see their inevitable stumble as clearly as you could have the previous few years. (Or last year: Villanova.)
In the end, I don't mind promoting the pick I've been eyeing for months: The top two teams in the country -- all season long -- playing for the title: Kansas over Kentucky.
This will be an overwhelmingly popular pick. Therefore, to win your pool, the premium will -- more than ever -- be on your ability to pick off a couple of unforeseen results along the way.
But William Ockham would just shake his head and laugh at you.
Top Seedings: The Kansas-Kentucky-Duke-Syracuse quartet wasn't surprising, but Duke vaulting Syracuse for the "No. 3" 1-seed was. Two implications: Syracuse has to get through Kansas to get to the national title game ... and Kansas, potentially, has to get through Syracuse -- a much more difficult match-up than Duke would have been.
Games That Will Freak You Out As You Do Your Bracket: Tennessee-San Diego State (and Georgetown vs. that game's winner); Xavier-Pitt; Temple-Cornell; Marquette-Washington; where to unload Purdue; and that entire mystifying Spokane quartet of Texas A&M, Utah State, Purdue and Siena.
Top Cinderellas: Let's start with some ground rules -- just because the team comes from a mid-major conference doesn't mean it qualifies as a Cinderella (3-seed New Mexico, 5-seed Butler). Also, if any team higher than a 5-seed makes the Sweet 16, consider it a Cinderella. Those will be few and far between. Cornell was a popular pre-bracket pick to make a Sweet 16 run, but Temple then Wisconsin is a brutal path. I'm intrigued by 12-seed Utah State out of the "South" (but playing in Spokane).
Region-by-Region Quick Hits:
Midwest
Top Storyline: Kansas will earn it. The No. 1 overall team, yet the toughest path of any of the 1-seeds. UNLV is no gimme, nor is battle-tested Michigan State. Evan Turner wants to be Danny Manning 2.0.
Toughest call: Tennessee-San Diego State
5/12 Mania: New Mexico State over Michigan State? Unlikely.
Upset Special: UNLV over Kansas (if only!)
Dream Regional Match-up: Evan Turner vs. Kansas
Gutsy pick to win region: Georgetown
Trendy But Iffy: San Diego State
Gutless pick: Kansas
Shanoff pick: Kansas
West
Top Storyline: Cuse gets banished. It seems ludicrous that Syracuse gets shipped out; the good news is that the Orange are on track to play Gonzaga in Buffalo, not out West. And the regional field seems manageable.
Toughest 1st-round call: UTEP-Butler
5/12 Mania: UTEP over Butler? Sure!
Upset Special: BYU over Kansas State
Dream Regional Match-up: Butler vs. Xavier
Gutsy pick to win region: Xavier
Trendy But Iffy: Kansas State
Gutless pick: Syracuse
Shanoff pick: Syracuse
East
Top Storyline: The John Wall Show. Seems like a straightforward path for UK through a potential match-up with West Virginia in the regional final. Watch the Sweet 16 gauntlet against the Temple/Wisconsin sub-region.
Toughest 1st-round call: Marquette-Washington
5/12 Mania: Cornell over Temple? Please!
Upset Special: Washington over New Mexico
Dream Regional Match-up: Kentucky vs. Cornell
Gutsy pick to win region: Wisconsin
Trendy But Iffy: New Mexico
Gutless pick: Kentucky
Shanoff pick: Kentucky
South
Top Storyline: When will Duke choke? Let's be honest: The Selection Committee has done everything it possibly could to ensure that Duke gets to the regional final, where -- as usual -- they will be exposed.
Toughest 1st-round call: Siena-Purdue
5/12 Mania: Utah State over Texas A&M? Yes.
Upset Special: Siena over Purdue
Dream Match-up: Duke-Villanova
Gutsy pick to win region: Baylor
Trendy But Iffy: Siena
Gutless pick: Duke
Shanoff pick: Villanova
Top Early-Round Geo-Advantage:
*Syracuse playing in Buffalo
*Kansas and K-State playing in OKC
*Ohio State playing in Milwaukee
*Utah State playing in Spokane
*Kentucky playing in New Orleans
*Washington playing in San Jose
Bubble Snubs: Mississippi State? Virginia Tech? Illinois? Let's be honest: All were fatally flawed, and it's hard to feel bad for any of 'em. I'd rather have mid-major X-factors like UTEP or Utah State as last teams in than power-conference also-rans.
Complete picks and predictions coming Wednesday.
The Last Word: Wait, there's stuff to talk about besides the Tournament? (Today? Not really. No, Jake Delhomme signing with the Browns or Brady Quinn getting traded to the Broncos doesn't come close to counting.)
Dan Shanoff writes The Wake-Up Call every weekday morning for SportingNews.com and blogs daily at DanShanoff.com. Got any comments, questions or feedback? E-mail Dan at danshanoff@gmail.com. Follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/danshanoff.
This post originally appeared on the Sporting Blog. For more, see The Sporting Blog Archives.
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Wow. I am shocked. Shanoff would rather have mid-major x-factors in the tourney than Miss. St., but isn’t complaining that a 15-loss team like Florida is dancing. Bias much? (and I’m not talking about Len, but you write like you have done more blow than him)
by AC14 on Mar 15, 2010 9:49 AM EDT reply actions
well…i have to be honest. why fight about who’s the 64th best team in the country ??? it’s just futile. be honest, and tell the painful truth…that none of the bubble teams that were left out had ANY CHANCE to win a national championship !!! look at the florida teams that won back to back…you know why they won…their entire starting 5 were NBA players !!!!!!!! using that fact…it’s kentucky and kansas !!!!
by lordhlatts on Mar 15, 2010 9:56 AM EDT reply actions
Two comments:
1. Syracuse is on a two-game losing streak, and you still think they should have stayed as the 3rd one-seed?
2. My advice for all of the would-be cindarellas – make it a team goal to break the tourney record for three-point attempts. If you are expected to lose anyway, bomb away, and hope for a miracle.
by dtalbott on Mar 16, 2010 11:05 AM EDT reply actions
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