SB Nation's 2010 MLB Previews: Minnesota Twins, Reaching New Heights

By Jesse Lund of Twinkie Town

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Introduction

It’s been a busy and exciting off-season in Twins Territory.  The team is moving into beautiful Target Field, the payroll has smashed the franchise record for spending, and the team has managed to bring in quality free agents while not over-spending.  There’s an amazing collection of talent in Minnesota this year, and it’s created a baseball buzz that this state hasn’t seen in years.

Position Players

C Joe Mauer
1B Justin Morneau
2B Orlando Hudson
3B Nick Punto/Brendan Harris
SS J.J. Hardy
LF Delmon Young
CF Denard Span
RF Michael Cuddyer
DH Jason Kubel

Bench:  Jim Thome (DH), Punto/Harris (IF), Drew Butera/Wilson Ramos (C)

This is, without resorting to hyperbole, the best collection of nine the Twins have had since the 1960’s.  There’s power, there’s the ability to get on base, and there’s youth.  On the down side, there’s some question about the outfield defense, particularly in the corners.

There’s no doubt that, on paper, this team has the potential to be one of the best offenses in the American League.  Span is a solid leadoff hitter, while Hudson is the #2 hitter this team has been searching for the last few seasons.  The meat of the order, Mauer-Morneau-Cuddyer-Kubel, should probably combine for 100 home runs if we’re projecting a little conservatively.  Behind them will be Hardy and Young, who both have something to prove.  The one weak spot in this lineup, at least on paper, will be from the third base position.  You always want some offensive contribution from the hot corner, but as #9 hitters their offensive shortcomings area easier to hide.

The bench is where it gets interesting.  Because the Twins will carry a 12-man pitching staff, a four-man bench is suddenly very limited with the addition of the positionless Thome.  The platoon of Punto and Harris will become the uber-utility player off the bench, while the winner of the Butera/Ramos competition will win the backup catcher job until Jose Morales is back.  The final spot could go to Matt Tolbert (IF) or an outfielder like Jacque Jones (although he’s not on the 40-man roster), but the favorite for the spot has to be infielder Alexi Casilla.  Alexi is out of options, and this team could probably use his speed.  In addition, the organization would likely want to give him one more chance before they have to make a decision on his future.

Rotation

Scott Baker (RHP)
Kevin Slowey (RHP)
Carl Pavano (RHP)
Nick Blackburn (RHP)
Undecided

There’s no clear ace in this group, and a lot of people will see that as a weakness.  Instead, what you have is a list of four pitchers without a clear weak spot.  Baker is under-rated and, if he can avoid the slow start he had last year, should become the team’s de-facto ace.  Slowey has the ability to miss some bats and will likely lead the staff in strikeouts this season.  Pavano and Blackburn will chew up innings, and shouldn’t have a problem competing with any other third or fourth starter in the league.

For the fifth starter spot, the clear leader of the pack is Francisco Liriano.  He blew the competition (and the scouts) away while playing in the Dominican Winter League, and he’s looked pretty sharp so far this spring.  As a Twins fan you have to be cautiously optimistic, but if he’s somewhere between his 2006 self and his 2009 self, he’ll be one of the better starters on the squad.  The strikeouts will always be there—as long as he can be in control more consistently, he still has a chance to be a very good pitcher in this league.

Also in the running for that fifth spot:  Glen Perkins, Brian Duensing and Anthony Swarzak.

Bullpen

Joe Nathan?-Closer (RHP)
Matt Guerrier –Set-up (RHP)
Jose Mijares—Set-up (LHP)
Jon Rauch (RHP)
Jesse Crain (RHP)
Clay Condrey (RHP)
Undecided

Nathan, one of the game’s best closers, is only on this list because he isn’t technically out yet.  Once he makes the difficult decision to have Tommy John surgery, somebody is going to have some pretty big shoes to fill.  While the team is exploring all internal and external options, right now I have to believe it’s a role that will be filled internally.

The bullpen was an area of strength for the Twins, and while losing your best relief pitcher stings, some of that will be absorbed.  Guerrier, Mijares and Rauch are a solid trio, while Crain is solid when utilized properly.  Additionally, strikeout phenom Pat Neshek is finally back from Tommy John surgery, and will likely have an opportunity to shine once the team believes he’s ready to retire Major League hitters.  He’s looked solid so far this spring.

That last spot will likely go to whoever comes in second place in the fifth starter competition.  Duensing and Perkins will lead that list, with Jeff Manship also in the mix.  That is not, however, a complete list of the candidates. 

For those who want to know about Liriano closing:  he will be tried as a starter first, which is his preference.  If he struggles, the team may move him to the bullpen, and if he proves he can get hitters out there then maybe the team would consider trying him out for the closer’s role.  But that’s not happening right now, and it certainly won’t be happening by opening day.  If Liriano ever is this team’s closer, it will be down the line.

In the System

The number one guy on everybody’s list is third baseman Danny Valencia, who will get his first cup of coffee with the Twins at some point this season.  Minnesota hasn’t had a regular third baseman since Corey Koskie (who left the team as a free agent in 2004), so there’s some excitement to see what he can provide.  But the biggest contributors to the 2010 Minnesota Twins might be relief pitchers Rob Delaney (good control, good strikeout rates) and Anthony Slama (amazing strikeout rates).  There is one open spot in the bullpen right now, two when Nathan gives in and goes under the knife, and these guys aren’t your everyday scrub bullpen arms.  Finally there’s catching prospect Wilson Ramos, who would threaten to start at catcher for many teams around the league.  On this team he’s fighting for the third catcher spot, and has a 50/50 shot with Drew Butera to make the opening day roster; whoever wins the spot will be returned to triple-A when Jose Morales returns.

Deeper in the system is outfielder Ben Revere, who will start the season at AA but could still see some time with the Twins if there’s an injury.  Aaron Hicks, Angel Morales, Carlos Gutierrez, Alex Burnett, Tyler Robertson, Kyle Gibson, David Bromberg—these are all guys to keep an eye on this season.  There are only a couple of top-flight prospects on the farm right now, but there’s a lot of solid depth.

Miscellaneous

Or: What’s Going On With Joe Mauer?

The most difficult thing to tell a fan base on edge:  be patient.  Minnesota’s front office is notoriously tight-lipped, and it can be frustrating.  But what seems to get lost is just how big of a deal a Joe Mauer extension is.  Yes, it’s going to get done, but the result will be an organization that’s committing roughly 20% of its payroll to one player.  Even for a team whose payroll is approaching $100 million and whose revenues will suddenly become top-ten in baseball, that’s a hefty responsibility.

There’s a lot of risk that goes into any contract that makes a 27-year old All-Star a franchise player for life, which is essentially what’s happening.  That means a lot of details that need to be ironed out, so both the player and the franchise are happy to sign on the dotted line.

Long-term deals to franchise cornerstones Denard Span and Nick Blackburn are part of the groundwork for the coming Mauer deal.  In spite of the fact that these two would have been under team control for a combined nine seasons, what the Twins are doing seems pretty obvious:  achieving payroll certainty.  By buying out arbitration years on players who the front office clearly views as building blocks, the organization will have a better view of payroll over coming seasons and can plan accordingly with the Mauer deal in tow.

The front office understands that this is about more than just one player.  It’s about who he plays with, it’s about the future of the team and it’s about retaining a fan base.  The deal is coming.  We just have to be patient.

Conclusion

The Twins always have a lot of competition for roles in spring training.  What makes this year different than recent years is that instead of a handful of underwhelming prospects fighting for the 25th roster spot, the Twins have quality players who will be forced to AAA because there’s not enough room to take them north.

Minnesota should still be the favorite to win the AL Central, even considering what the loss of Nathan means to the club.  And if you’re looking for an exciting collection of stars and young, under-valued players, this is a team that deserves watching in 2010.