SB Nation's 2010 MLB Previews: San Francisco Giants, No Thunder In The Lumber

By Grant of McCovey Chronicles

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Introduction

It's hard to think about the San Francisco Giants without thinking about the late-'90s/ early-'00s Rangers. Power up and down the lineup. Eighth-place hitters who could hit cleanup for half of the teams in the league. A non-stop barrage of heavy hiting, foiled only by their unspeakably awful pitching. It's truly a shame.

All right, I just wanted to be different. Every preview you read about the Giants this spring will point out the contrast between the awful hitting and the superlative pitching. Tim Lincecum! Edgar Renteria. Matt Cain! Aaron Rowand. It's obvious, and it's entirely accurate. Pablo Sandoval, who often swings at the umpire's return throw to the mound, led the team in walks. Other than Sandoval, only one hitter in the starting lineup had an on-base percentage over .330 (Fred Lewis), and he was benched midseason. You know, for getting on base. Or maybe it was done on a dare. Not sure. 

And while the pitching is still a good bet to be some variety of fantastic, it's no sure thing that the 2010 Giants will replicate their performance from last year. The Giants struck gold with all sorts of random and free players. Justin Miller was a non-roster invitee with an ERA+ of 137 in over 50 innings, and he was only the second-best NRI in the bullpen (Brandon Medders was a touch better). Brad Penny was swiped from the free bin for a handful of stellar starts. Jonathan Sanchez was bounced from the rotation, then he came back on an emergency basis to throw a no-hitter. All of the cosmic tumblers clicked into place for the Giants' pitching staff -- even Barry Zito was above average! -- and it only led to 88 wins and third place.

To blame? That wretched, wretched offense. Don't worry, though. They signed Mark DeRosa and Aubrey Huff.

Position Players

It's not as if the Giants' lineup is filled with abysmal, Yunieskian non-talents. There are a couple hanging around the clubhouse, sure, but for the most part, the players in the lineup are guys who make sense on a roster if you squint. Aaron Rowand can still handle center, and while limited offensively, he still provides a little power. Freddy Sanchez is a high-average, plus-defense middle infielder when healthy. Travis Ishikawa is a steady glove with a modicum of promise. And so it goes up and down the roster. Together, though, the lineup was a mighty Voltron of suck a year ago, far worse than the sum of its parts. 

Don't worry, though. They signed Mark DeRosa and Aubrey Huff. Oh, and the team is optimistic that Edgar Renteria was injured last season, and not just bad. So you can see how everything is going to work out now. It's painful to think of where the offense would be without Pablo Sandoval, who was buried in high-A at the start of 2008 and wasn't even considered one of the Giants' 30 best prospects. Without that bolt of husky lightning, the Giants' offense would have been historically bad last year. Any scenario in which the Giants contend is a scenario in which Sandoval has another outstanding season.

Rotation

Tim Lincecum is a golden god. Well, if pasty were a shade of golden, he would be. Matt Cain is a rare combination of youth, durability, and effectiveness. Barry Zito is overpaid several times over, but he was a valuable member of last year's rotation. Jonathan Sanchez misses bats like few others in the game. Todd Wellemeyer was, uh, born on the same day as Cliff Lee? It's a marvelous collection of talent, and the Giants are hoping the horses will maintain their performance levels while Jonathan Sanchez emerges. Add in some incremental offensive improvements, and that's how the Giants are planning to contend. It's not a crazy formula; it's just asking for a lot of consistency from starting pitchers, which is merely foolhardy. With some continued good health and fortune, though, the Giants' rotation should still be the envy of most of the teams in baseball.

Bullpen

Almost all of the key relievers are back for 2010, but there's no chance they'll all be as productive. Pitchers like Jeremy Affeldt and Brandon Medders all prevented runs as if they were high-strikeout, overpowering types. There weren't, and their merely decent K/BB ratios hint at a little regression. Hopefully, this will be offset by a full season of Sergio Romo and Dan Runzler. Brian Wilson had a quietly impressive season, cutting his walk rate, keeping the ball in the park, and boosting his strikeout rate. It's a sturdy collection of arms, and while it's hard to imagine any bullpen matching that 2009 performance, it should still be a strength of the team.

In The System

Madison Bumgarner still has a shot at making the rotation this spring, but his velocity dropped last year, and it hasn't come back yet. Velocity isn't everything, of course, but it's hard to name a lot of lefties who could live on an 88 MPH fastball without a reliable breaking ball. Bumgarner is likely the first line of defense, and he'll be in AAA to start the season.

Buster Posey is the future. Though he's blocked by the re-signing of Bengie Molina -- the corpulent Steve DeBerg to Posey's Joe Montana -- Posey is certainly ready to hit at the Major League level. The Giants are convinced that he's still too raw behind the plate to start for a contending team, and it's not outlandish to think they could be right. If the team is out of it by the All-Star break, Posey will displace Molina this season. If the team is within a few games of the division leader, the team would rather start Eli Whiteside. 

Apart from Bumgarner and Posey, though, there isn't a whole lot of immediate help in the upper minors just yet.  The Giants' organizational depth is built for the long-term. Most of the more interesting prospects will be in AA, and while one or two might make a guest appearance in 2010, players like Thomas Neal and Roger Kieschnick are still likely a couple of seasons away.

Miscellaneous

After reading that, you might think that Giants fans are a little whiny and bitter. Guilty, I guess. But it's not that I don't appreciate how special it's been to watch back-to-back Cy Young seasons, or how fantastic it's been to watch a quiet force like Cain, or how welcome it was to watch Sandoval emerge as a fully, fully formed hitting beast. It's that it feels like the Giants are on the verge of wasting the organization's best collection of pitching since moving from New York. The Giants are so close to being something special, and yet they're so far, far, far, faaaaaar away from having the offense to do so. It's pure, unfiltered frustration to watch this team. 

Conclusion

...yet they still have a small chance of riding this pitching staff deep into the summer months. Unlkely? Maybe. Impossible? Nah. It's a pretty sweet front of the rotation, and maybe the Giants will accidentally find some offense from an unexpected source. It's a scenario worthy of spring fanboy optimism, at least, no matter how irrational. It's not science fiction to think the Giants can contend, and even win the NL West. It's just not as likely of a scenario as it should be.

Thirty-to-one to win the World Series? Okay. If you want to get technical, each of Wiley E. Coyote's mail-order Acme contraptions probably had better than a thirty-to-one chance at working. They never did, though, because that's not how the universe works. If you want to get technical, the Giants at thirty-to-one is probably a fair bet. But that's not how the universe works. Keep your money.