Yes, according to one statistical projection. But it comes with a caveat, of course:â†µ
Hardcore gamblers will tell you that betting can be reduced down to a science.â†µ
That’s the article's first sentence. And not to nitpick, but hardcore gamblers will tell you a lot of things...â†µ
Anyway, the article continues, introducing us to Paul Bessire, inventor of a the “Predictalator”:â†µ
Bessire says he has run every possible matchup in the NCAA tournament 50,000 times through what he calls his Predictalator, which uses season stats to guide the program.â†µ
“The idea is that the unpredictable never happens,” said Bessire, who has his masters degree in quantitative analysis. “It’s whether a likely situation will happen or not.”â†µ
Using 50,000 scenarios pumped out of The Predictalator—which sounds like a fourth grader’s science project—Bessire finds that fifth seeded Michigan State has a 92.1% chance vs. 12-seed New Mexico State in the first round, while another five seed, Butler, has just a 59% chance against 12-seed UTEP. He’s also got Baylor playing in the title game, which makes me feel a lot better about putting them for the Final Four. The Predictalator’s got my back.â†µ
But then again, I’m sure there are about 1,000 other formulas that say differently. In fact, as far as gambling on the tournament, here’s the safest bet: no matter who you take, there’s someone out there with a statistical formula to support your decision.