SB Nation's 2010 MLB Previews: Colorado Rockies, It Starts With The Arms

By Russ Oates, Andrew Fisher, Andrew Martin, Jeff Aberle, and Bryan Kilpatrick of Purple Row

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Introduction

After a mid-season managerial change, the Colorado Rockies turned up the heat on their competition in the National League with new manager Jim Tracy and a resurgent Troy Tulowitzki. This led the Rockies to a second Wild Card berth in three years. Losing to the Phillies in a 2009 divisional series, the Rockies now look toward a steady start in 2010 and their first NL West title.

Position Players

C Chris Iannetta
1B Todd Helton
2B Clint Barmes
3B Ian Stewart
SS Troy Tulowitzki
RF Brad Hawpe
CF Dexter Fowler
LF Carlos Gonzalez
Bench: OFs Seth Smith & Ryan Spilborghs, Util Melvin Mora, 1B, Jason Giambi, C Miguel Olivo

Good-to-great defense is the word here, as the club returns all their starters from a year ago. Not only that, but the group is also filled with current - and likely, future - Gold Glovers. Clint Barmes and Troy Tulowitzki are a formidable combination up the middle, as Barmes led the club at his position with a 7.5 U(ultimate)Z(zone)R(rating)/150. Meanwhile, UZR didn't show Tulo as much love, but he possesses a cannon of an arm and when healthy, is generally viewed as one of the better shortstops in the game. Todd Helton has always been a known as quite the picker at first base, and he ranked third in the league at his position last season with a 7.1 UZR/150. Ian Stewart is still a work in progress at the hot corner, but he is a steep upgrade over Garrett Atkins, and always seems to come up with a web gem at the right moment. It is a definite possibility that Stewart will see a natural improvement at third base in 2010, as he won't be relegated to playing other positions or looking over his shoulder. Chris Iannetta threw out 26% of attempted base stealers - not a great number, but a career high and an extreme improvement over Yorvit Torrealba, who garnered most of the playing time down the stretch in 2009.

Offensively, the unit features the ultimate mark of consistency in Helton, surrounded by guys who have all had glimpses of stardom, but have also been largely inconsistent in their (mostly) short careers. Helton is coming off of a season in which he posted a .325/.416/.489 line, which put him right back to where he was before missing most of 2008 with a bad back. Meanwhile, Tulowitzki had the best offensive season of his career thus far, as his .297/.377/.552 line, 32 homeruns, and overall 5.4 WAR suggest. He should post similar or better numbers this season, barring injuries. The Rockies are counting on a bounce-back year from Iannetta, who fell off a bit last year after having a breakout season in 2008. The numbers indicate Iannetta can do just that, as he continues to draw walks and have a patient approach despite having less-than-stellar luck on balls in play (.245 BABIP last year compared to .311 in 2008). Ian Stewart and Clint Barmes were both tremendous assets to the club last year, simply because of the fact that they were able to hit the long ball (25 and 23, respectively). However, both guys will need to find other ways to get on base to help the club. Barmes posted a sub-.300 OBP and a horrible walk rate, but he has committed to changing his approach at the plate, and has opened his stance a bit in hopes of seeing the ball better. Stewart is also working on his approach, focusing on driving the ball to the opposite field when warranted, rather than trying to lift everything, which caused him to pull off of pitches on the outer half of the plate. In any case, he'll definitely be looking to lower his strikeout rate (32.5%), which was worse than three of the team's five starting pitchers.

The outfield trip is a mix of homegrown talent, both old and new, and exciting returns from former players. Brad Hawpe, as always will be in RF, despite his poor OF defense. Dexter Fowler, another homegrown stud, will be patrolling CF. Carlos Gonzalez, acquired in the Holliday trade and arguably the best defender of the 3, will be playing LF. While other OF will be in the mix, we'll be seeing a lot of these three outfielders. Brad Hawpe's strength and rationale for playing a position that he can't really field is the absolute strength of his bat. Hawpe's a career 120 wRC+ batter, and 2 of the past 3 years, 130 wRC+. His downside is that while he sports a cannon of an arm, it's effectively nullified by his poor range on balls in play. Dexter Fowler is a young, toolsy player, considered to be an excellent defender, sports excellent on-base skills, and has the speed to be a definitive basestealing threat. While the fielding metrics are not very high on Fowler, he's young, and scouted to be a plus defender in CF, so it would suggest that he's able to rise above what looked to be a somewhat pedestrian season and become a serious threat at the top of the lineup. Carlos Gonzalez is somewhat of an enigma still to the baseball community. After a weak season in Oakland (at the plate, anyhow, he showed excellent range in the outfield), Gonzalez seems to have harnessed some of the 5-tool talent scouts and analysts have him pegged for in the month of July through the rest of the season. Definitely not the Pujolsian hitter that his August would suggest, an OPS of .850 along with excellent defense seems to be a reasonable look at Carlos Gonzalez. Overall, the outfield is balanced with speed and power, with enough depth to replace any slumping star. The combination of potent bats and (mostly) solid defense make the trio roaming Rhode Island in the Coors outfield one of the best combinations in baseball.

With an excellent mix of power, speed, versatility, and veteran presence, it is quite possible that the Rockies have the deepest bench in all of baseball. Lefty outfielder Seth Smith, entering his prime at 27, is the most dangerous of the bunch, combining an excellent batting eye (.293 AVG and.378 OBP) with some nice power (.510 SLG and 15 HRs) resulting in a 129 wRC+ season over 387 PAs. Smith very well could be starting for almost every team in the league (the Rockies included), so if the Rockies get him plenty of at-bats he could really be a breakout player this season for them. Ryan Spilborghs complements Smith well, performing as a right-handed fifth outfielder with speed, pop, and defense that plays at all three outfield spots. If Spilborghs can return to his lefty-killing ways, he'll be a deadly weapon for Jim Tracy to use when a tough lefty is on the hill.

In the infield, the Rockies brought in former Orioles third baseman Melvin Mora as a utility player. The Rockies expect the right handed 38 year old Mora to contribute all over the field, most notably being the primary backup for second and third base. Mora's best years may be behind him, but a move out of the AL East and to the wide expanse of Coors Field should do him good. Another aging veteran the Rockies have on the bench is the 39 year old Jason Giambi. Giambi joined Colorado late in the 2009 campaign and quickly proved his worth, showing off excellent power and patience as a pinch hitter. The big lefty will be expected to give Todd Helton a few days off at first base, but will mostly be counted upon in high leverage situations. Rounding out the bench is the backup catcher, Miguel Olivo. As the Royals' primary catcher in 2009, Olivo smacked 23 home runs, so there is certainly evidence of power there. He also has thrown out 34% of men trying to steal on him, demonstrating a more powerful arm than previous backup Yorvit Torrealba showed. However, Olivo's lack of plate discipline is legendary (he has 96 HRs in 2631 PAs and only 98 walks), so his fit within the patient Colorado lineup is uncertain.

Rotation

RHP Ubaldo Jimenez
RHP Aaron Cook
LHP Jorge De La Rosa
RHP Jason Hammel
LHP Jeff Francis

A common pet peeve among Rockies fans is a willingness to apply the "Coors Effect" to the statistics of Rockies hitters, but not an equal adjustment for the pitching staff.   In 2009, Colorado's rotation had MLB's 7th best ERA, 2nd most wins, 4th most innings pitched and perhaps most impressive of all - the 4th least number of home runs of any big league rotation.  At Coors Field.  Yeah.  Those components led the staff to be ranked #2 overall by Fangraphs in WAR behind Boston.

Four of the five starters from that staff return in 2010.  Ubaldo Jimenez is the young ace who has recorded MLB's fastest average fastball each of the last two years and is coming off a season that he set the franchise record for ERA, WHIP, H/9 and nearly eclipsed his own franchise record for HR/9.  Aaron Cook is the veteran of the staff and holds the most wins in franchise history.  After an All-Star year in 2008, Cook was disappointing in 2009 and succumbed to a worrying pattern of late season injuries; he dropped 20 pounds this offseason in an effort to remain healthy.  Jorge de la Rosa holds the top two spots in franchise history in K/9 and no NL lefty had more strikeouts in 2009.  After a whirlwind 16-3 finish to the season, the quiet 28-year-old Mexican has come into camp noticeably more confident.  Jason Hammel was a strong fifth starter, setting the franchise record for K/BB in his first year with the club.

All five starters won at least 10 games last year, and even though Jason Marquis bolted to Washington to seriously test his lucky charm, Colorado isn't worried.  They have a guy who tied the franchise record for wins in a season as the ace during Rocktober 2007.  Jeff Francis returns after a lost season from labrum surgery.  As it stands, Colorado knows who their five-man staff already.  However, Francis may open the season on the disabled list as a precaution, though he has looked good so far in Spring Training.  The Rockies' backup plan is likely to be Greg Smith first, who nearly posted a sub-4.00 ERA full season as a rookie in 2008 with Oakland before losing 2009 to injury. If the club is desperate enough, Tim Redding is on the payroll.

The rotation is probably due for some regression or more injuries (the main five started 155 games in 2009), but it remains deep, strong and with developing ace power, making the rotation (not the offense) the strength of the Colorado Rockies.

Bullpen

RHP Huston Street (CL)
RHP Rafael Betancourt
RHP Matt Daley
LHP Franklin Morales
RHP Manny Corpas
LHP Randy Flores
RHP Matt Belisle

This could be a very good bullpen, but injuries and inconsistency are looming concerns. Huston Street signed a three-year deal during the offseason after posting 35 saves last season and a 3.06 ERA. However, Street has a history of injuries and has yet to pitch this Spring Training because of shoulder tightness. His possible replacement and current eight-inning guy, Rafael Betancourt, is suffering from shoulder tightness as well, and is likely to land on the DL to start the season. Matt Daley spent a month in Triple A before a promotion to the big leagues. With his unique delivery, he was able to provide effective relief, but will hitters adjust to his delivery this season? Franklin Morales has been touted as a top of the rotation starter, but he's yet to live up to that potential. He will stay in the bullpen and is the fallback option at closer if Street and Betancourt are out for extended periods of the season. Manny Corpas made headlines during the 2007 playoffs when he was accused of doctoring the ball. It's hasn't gone well for him since then. He lost the closer job in 2008 to the since-departed Brian Fuentes and fell flat on his face in 2009. It didn't help that he had bone chips in his right elbow and missed the second half of the year. Randy Flores and Matt Belisle are adequate veterans in the bullpen. Non-roster invitee Justin Speier has pitched well so far and is a dark horse candidate to make the ‘pen.

In The System

RHP Jhoulys Chacin and Util Eric Young, Jr. are the two guys in the system ready to move up to the big league club. Both played with the Rockies in 2009, but neither is likely to start 2010 there. Chacin will return to Colorado Springs, an even more hitter-friendly park than Coors, but a return to the big leagues either in the rotation or as part of the bullpen by mid-season isn't out of the question. Eric Young, Jr. looked poised to start 2010 with the Rockies until the team signed Melvin Mora. EY Jr. will return to Colorado Springs as the starting second baseman. When he returns to the majors, he'll bounce around between second base and left field.

2008 first-rounder LHP Christian Friedrich will start the season with Tulsa, and barring an injury setback he should see the majors in September. RHP Esmil Rogers dominated Double-A Texas League in 2009 with his fastball-curveball combo, but struggled upon promotion to Triple-A Colorado Springs. He also had an unimpressive start in September against the Padres. If he can improve his changeup, Rogers has a spot in the Rockies' rotation eventually.

While it will be a few season before 2009 first-round pick LHP Tyler Matzek makes it to the majors, the Rockies' supplemental first-round selection, LHP Rex Brothers, could fly through the system as a reliever and see Denver late in 2010.

Miscellaneous

One of the key story lines to follow for the Rockies early in the season will be how well Troy Tulowitzki starts out. He's had slow starts the last few years, and the Rockies have suffered as a result. If he starts off hot, the Rockies will be in a good position. Also, it will help propel Tulo in his bid for an All-Star appearance and postseason hardware. This will also be the season the baseball talking heads will realize that a pitcher who plays his home games at Coors can be good. That pitcher will be named Ubaldo Jimenez and he'll be in the Cy Young conversation. It's time for the Rockies to be recognized nationally.

Conclusion

The odds for this Colorado team getting to the playoffs and winning in them, have never been higher in their history. With the Vegas line for the Rockies at just 84 wins, take the over on that number--one of the easiest on the board. With their deep, talented roster, the Rockies will win the NL West over the Dodgers--and that they'll have a better record than the Braves, Cubs, and Mets.