Updated throughout the day with quick takes from staff.
Remember when things like Miami-Notre Dame used to happen? If you're 35 or older, the answer is probably "yes." If you're younger, those days are increasingly fuzzy. You know in your heart that the amount of football top teams play against each other has declined dramatically. Hell, as recently as 1997 Michigan's non-conference schedule was Colorado, Notre Dame, and Baylor. Baylor is just Baylor, but that's three BCS opponents. The only team doing that sort of scheduling anymore is USC, and that's largely because fickle Los Angeles fans aren't going to shell out for the San Jose States of the world.
Now thanks to Brian Fremeau, freelance statistical guy and Football Outsiders contributor, you can take that knowledge out of your heart and put it on a spirograph. Fremeau has analyzed the number of games between top 25 teams in the years 1989 and 2009 and comes to an unsurprising conclusion:
The AP final top-25 was significantly more connected in 1989 than 2009. Only nine ranked teams played at least four games against other ranked teams last season; in 1989, 18 ranked teams did so. Twenty years ago, the AP top-10 either played or shared a common opponent with an average of 17 other ranked teams. In 2009, the AP top-10 either played or shared a common opponent with an average of only 12.6 other ranked teams.
In twenty years, the frequency of games played between top-25 teams has been nearly cut in half.
However obvious that may be, at least it's good to know there are numbers to back up your crotchety-old-man-complaining about what it was like back in your day. In your day, crotchety old person of 35 or more, it was actually better. Also, the post comes with some sweet data visualizations.
Fremeau suggests one of the main culprits is conference expansion, which seriously limits the ability of independent teams to act as bridges between conferences. There are a few others: games against I-AA teams have also doubled, and I-A has added 14 teams, none of them any good, in the interim. When you've got so many more options for easy wins and the incentives are all aligned towards those wins, the results write themselves.
There are plenty of ways to fix this: ban I-AA games, force teams to play at least five true road games a season, banish teams that have no business in I-A back to where they belong. Since the men in charge regard this change as a feature, not a bug, none of them will be undertaken. As you were.
This post originally appeared on the Sporting Blog. For more, see The Sporting Blog Archives.
Comments
Oh, come on, Eastern Michigan had the best pass defense in the country last year.So what if it was mostly because EMU had the worst rush defense in the country last year?
by ahutchins.tsn on Mar 2, 2010 5:17 PM EST reply actions
"I-A has added 14 teams, none of them any
good, in the interim."
Boise State joined 1-A in 1996. You may have heard of them. They play pretty good football.
by nelsonjoaopessoa on Mar 2, 2010 6:39 PM EST reply actions
Ohio State is doing their part. the Buckeyes opponents from 2005-2019
2005 – texas
2006 – texas, cincinnati
2007 – washington
2008 – usc
2009 – usc
2010 – miami, fl
2011 – miami, fl
2012 – cincinnati, cal
2013 – cal
2014 – cincinnati, va tech
2015 – va tech
2016/17 – @okla, okla
2018/19 – @tenn, tenn
with the current bcs set up, if a team loses 1 game, their fate is no longer in their hands. 1 loss can eliminate them from national championship consideration. there is no incentive to play a tougher schedule. if a top ranked team goes through an easy schedule undefeated, they’re still a top ranked team, but if a top ranked team plays a tough schedule and loses one their fate is no longer their own.
if there were a playoff, and the formula used to determine seeding were based in part on strength of schedule, then you’d see an increase in bcs vs bcs competition.
by Buckeyesoldier on Mar 2, 2010 10:56 PM EST reply actions
The Pac-10 is doing their part as well. According to the College Football Data Warehouse, the Pac-10 has played 10 of the 12 toughest cumulative schedules in the country over the past decade.
http://cfbdatawarehouse.com/data/rankings/decade_team_sched_rankings.php?period=2000-2009
by aajoe7 on Mar 3, 2010 1:09 AM EST reply actions
This conversation is going no where. It’s lacking the place of a good leader to head the things to come out on conclusion.
===
jonsmit
Click Fights
by jonsmit129 on Mar 3, 2010 1:43 AM EST reply actions
LEAD ON jonsmit129!!! LEAD ON
by snowhill on Mar 3, 2010 8:12 AM EST reply actions
This is one thing I’ve liked about Saban at Alabama. He’s been taking the risk and scheduling "real" games early in the season. Clemson, VA Tech, and next year Penn State.
by pastormarksc on Mar 3, 2010 8:25 AM EST reply actions
Ya, Alabama and Tenneesee have been scheduling out of conference Home and Home games. Dont hopd you breath for Florida to come around. Even if your over thirty five or forty five you wont remember Florida playing non conference out of state.
by secoverrated on Mar 3, 2010 9:31 AM EST reply actions
This is the weakness in the system. I’ve been saying it for years the quality of competiton has really gone down since certain conferences have figured out that playing weak competition is not penalized. So what you get are "champions" based on W/L records that take no account for the level of competition.
Thank you Coach Carroll for the last ten years. Thank you USC for not going down this road.
by SailorGabe on Mar 3, 2010 10:05 AM EST reply actions
Back in the day, there were alot more independent teams. Looking at 1989, the year in question, Top 25 teams Miami, FSU, Penn State, Pitt were all independents, and Notre Dame didn’t suck. So all these teams games would have fallen under non-conference back then, but not now.
The playing out of state games is meaningless. Good teams are good teams, and they play you harder if they are your neighbor and hate you than if it’s a one-one-done. Florida has 2 BCS non-conference games against in-state teams that hate them. Georgia has one Gtech, SC has Clemson, etc. West coast schools want to hold up the fact that they HAVE to fly a long ways to schedule talent as a badge, but its not. Its just reality. As SailorGabe likes to point out, Rivals recruiting rankings are an indicator of talent being brought in. That talent is more concentrated in certain conferences than in some conferences out west.
by cnapse on Mar 3, 2010 11:51 AM EST reply actions
Hey Buckeyesoldier:
I love how you put down the one out of four tough OOC games that Ohio State plays. What about the Youngstown States, Akron, Ohio and all those other crap regional teams Ohio State always plays.
by stanfUrdstinks on Mar 3, 2010 12:52 PM EST reply actions
You an example of how this is crap? Look at Ohio State before they had to play USC (um..nobody picked them to go to the BCS title game) and after (hey lets pick tOSU to the title game!). The same thing would have happend to Florida the last couple years…
USC whether you love them or hate them play anyone anywhere.
by SailorGabe on Mar 3, 2010 3:58 PM EST reply actions
anyone anywhere…..
good thing. with the inevitable expansion of the conference and addition of regional football superpowers to the fold, a PAC-10 championship game will happen any day now.
by cnapse on Mar 3, 2010 8:05 PM EST reply actions
That would be sweet. As long as we play big programs I’m happy.
by SailorGabe on Mar 3, 2010 11:21 PM EST reply actions
"This is one thing I’ve liked about Saban at Alabama. He’s been taking
the risk and scheduling "real" games early in the season. Clemson, VA
Tech, and next year Penn State."
Don’t give Saban any credit for scheduling PSU. I was scheduled long before Saban got there and shoudl have been already been played. Alabama asked to delay the series as they were under their NCAA violation restrictions and sucked.
by 78Lion on Mar 4, 2010 7:21 AM EST reply actions
Brian,In 2009, the SEC Champ (AL) played and beat #2 Texas, #3 Florida, #10 Virginia Tech, #17 LSU, & #20 Ole Miss. USC played, and beat #5 Ohio State. Loss to #11 Oregon and yes, Brian played San Jose State.In 2008, the SEC Champ played and beat, #5 Oklahoma, #6 Alabama, #10 Georgia & #23 Florida State. They also played the 2008 BCS Sugar Bowl Representative Hawai’i & Miami (FL). They lost to #15 Ole Miss.In 2007, the SEC Champ played and beat, #4 Ohio State, #9 Virginia Tech, #12 Tennessee, #14 Auburn & #16 Florida. In 2007, USC beat only two teams with Regular season winning records and only one ranked team (#13 AZ St.). They then beat #18 Illinois, the Big 10 Runner-Up in the Rose Bowl. That is a ridiculous schedule.Maybe it’s time for you to use the SEC Champ as your example of the teams that play other top teams and stop using USC as your example… it’s not only misleading… it’s inaccurate! The SEC Champ has played, at least, 5 ranked teams in each of their last 4 NC’s.USC didn’t play 5 ranked teams in either of their 2004 BCS NC or their 2003 AP title year! Big Difference.
<!--EndFragment-->by Hyacenth House on Mar 4, 2010 11:39 AM EST reply actions
Good points, but remember:
1) Notre Dame and Miami were both independents back then — as were Penn State, Florida State, Pitt, South Carolina, BC and a bunch of other schools. Those guys (except Notre Dame) are locked into conference schedules now. No more "Florida State, Notre Dame, and 9 teams our 3rd string could beat." I don’t think it’s an accident that every one of those schools has regressed somewhat in the national limelight since joining a conference (which is probably why Notre Dame never will), meaning you don’t see them ranked as often or as high. It’s much harder to navigate a conference of roughly equal talent where opposing coaches learn your tendencies every year. So in the long run, I think this trend has actually improved competition overrall
by heel9091 on Mar 4, 2010 2:18 PM EST reply actions
To add a couple of points to HH’s post:
1) Two years ago when Florida beat Oklahoma
in the national championship game, they faced 7 first round picks in
their conference schedule alone. USC faced 1. For every player
drafted by the NFL that USC faced in conference that year, Florida
faced 2 in conference.
2) Let me put it another way. For the Pac-10 to equal the NFL production of
the SEC’s top 10 teams (omitting Vandy and Kentucky), they would have
to add Texas and Ohio State. If you put Vandy and Kentucky back into
the mix, the Pac-10, even with Texas and Ohio State, still can’t match
the number of players.
3) If you pull USC out of the Pac-10, you have a conference putting NFL players into the pros at a rate below the SEC, Big 12, Big-10, ACC and Big East. I didn’t check the MWC. My point is that every stat you hear about Pac-10 NFL production to boost USC’s SoS (such as, "more players per team drafted!") manages to assume the players USC puts on the field are also somehow competing against themselves on the other team.
I’m a Tar Heel, not a Florida or SEC fan. Pac-10 football is usually entertaining, mostly well-coached, and features some great players. In other words, it’s the ACC if Miami or FSU (not both) ever returned to their 1990 ways.
by heel9091 on Mar 4, 2010 2:27 PM EST reply actions
Good grief you guys will make up anything to try to make a point.
Here is a big one: USC under Pete Carroll was 4-0 versus the SEC. Not only did USC beat Auburn and Arkansas (home and away) they destroyed them.
Take a look at the NFL combine this year…who has the most invites? USC with 13. This is AFTER having our QB go #5 and all our LB’s getting drafted in the first 2 rounds. You know the current Defensive Rookie of the Year. Heck, even our kicker got drafted last year……
The point of this article is this: Teams don’t play anyone anymore, except USC. That’s it. USC will gladly play any SEC team that has the balls to schedule them…the problem is they won’t. After what USC did to Arkansas (putting 70 on them) the SEC is scared. And they should be.
You guys can try to justify your "championships" all you want, but in the end USC still has not lost to an SEC team in over a decade.
by SailorGabe on Mar 4, 2010 3:30 PM EST reply actions
I think it would be real hard to replicate the inter-sectional landscape of 25 years ago with today’s conference dominated line ups.
There are even conference playoffs/title games at the end of the year that did not exist 25 years ago.
There are natural "in-state rivalries" like Pitt vs PSU or Georgia vs Georgia Tech etc that could become these special games that normally would not get scheduled too.
That being said—even with the limited amount of non-conference games available to choose from—there is still some room for some of the big programs to go out of conference and play another top program once or twice a year.
The big question is which teams are willing to do it?
Maybe the computer rankings for the SOS component could be weighed more heavily to encourage big programs to play non-cream puff opponents and schedule another good program or two during the regular season.
The big BCS money and having an undefeated season until late November ( getting lined up for the big payout) have also wiped out the head-to-head marquee match ups that we used to see 25 years ago.
The NCAA should encourage this more—it would be good for college football viewership and ratings—-and all of the big programs need to be involved in mixing in some tougher non-conference games.
As many have stated above—this is going on to some extent and I would like to see it expanded.
Losing one game to a tough opponent should keep a good team rated higher that an undefeated team who has won all of its games against minor competitition.
In a good year—if all of the big programs play against 1-2 other ranked teams outside of their conference—and one or two happen to come out undefeated—then there are your National Championship BCS match ups sorted out for you.
That was how it worked 25 years ago—-killing several non-conference opponents by 60 points would actually work against your team over the course of the season.
I think there have been too many changes to the sport with many large conferences and huge BCS money in play to make this happen easily—but it could be tried.
by CollegeFootball#1 on Mar 4, 2010 4:23 PM EST reply actions
Sailor — Our comments were directed at schedule comparisons (including yours), not program comparisons. Once again, as awesome as USC football can be, the program only plays itself once a year, and the game doesn’t count.
I like USC football. It’s fun to watch, and the talent is usually top-notch. It would compete annually for the top spot in the SEC if it were a member. But even your own coach says the SEC across the board has better talent in the front seven (you know, the guys who do most of the tackling) than the other conferences, and those comments are after he returned home to SoCal.
Good luck in 2010. If USC finds itself jumped in the polls again by a team from the Big 12 or Big 10, please try to assign blame appropriately.
by heel9091 on Mar 4, 2010 11:32 PM EST reply actions
by Hyacenth House on Mar 4, 2010 11:34 PM EST reply actions
Flawed Trojan-enz logic.
USC has indeed played Auburn and the recently arrived ex SWC Arkansas.
Apart from tOSU, they play no one ALL YEAR, and cry when they stumble against a no one.
One of Georgia’s worst teams with absolutely no OL starter went to Tempe and shellacked ASU.
Washington beat USC, Stanford hammered USC, the vaunted "we’ll play anyone anywhere".
Please. Anyone would play anyone anywhere if it were the only game of merit on their schedule for the whole season, LOL
by Dandy Lion on Mar 5, 2010 5:29 AM EST reply actions
Salor Gabe has a point. The PAC 10 usually beats the SEC team who plays them. Has Florida ever beat a PAC 10 team ever?
by secoverrated on Mar 5, 2010 10:38 AM EST reply actions
We all know USC is scared to play UF. USC is 0-1-1 vs UF. 1982 and 1983. USC has been scared to play UF ever since. They are so scared that they don’t even try to make it to National Championship games because they know that any SEC team they meet will expose them for the true weakness that they are.
by ftlgator on Mar 5, 2010 4:59 PM EST reply actions
LOL, you know the higest rated game on ESPN ever? USC vs tOSU last year.
HY House, in order to own USC you have to beat USC. The SEC can’t.
I’m not sure what the whole "we beat other Pac-10 teams" is all about considering..uh…USC is USC…we are not Cal, Oregon, AZST, etc….we stand alone.
No worries the day is coming really soon when USC will line up against another SEC school and I hope LK puts the hammer down just like Pete did.
by SailorGabe on Mar 5, 2010 7:47 PM EST reply actions
Try worrying about Stanford and Harbaugh’s Hammer, Sailor. First things first.
by heel9091 on Mar 5, 2010 11:55 PM EST reply actions
Nice try on the spin factor about the highest rated game on ESPN but not comparing it to any other networks. Feel free to provide the facts. I’d like to know who that game compared to the SEC championship or Florida at LSU. Let’s go ahead and get back to your "you have to beat USC" comment. USC has never beat Florida, so using your logic, Florida is Florida, we are not Tennessee, Vanderbilt, or Georgia. Florida = Undefeated vs USC.
by ftlgator on Mar 6, 2010 8:07 PM EST reply actions
Buckeye: That sounds great until you belabor the fact that if you lose one game others determine your fate, and if you lose two games you’re out. LSU won the NC with two losses, and with the exception of Alabama and Ohio State, I do not believe anyone else has won 14 games in a season. Florida won two NC’s recently with one loss. If you have one loss, your fate is in the hands of your players to win the rest. If your one loss is in a conference championship, you’re out of the running barring a miracle such as there are few.
If you’re Boise State or Cincinatti, one loss may be the deathblow…then it becomes SOS. Penn State was denied the NC on at least two, maybe three occasions when UNDEFEATED, and in the 60’s, Alabama was undefeated and finished 3rd behind two teams with a tie each. Auburn, Utah, etc. have lost such chances.
Penn State began to earn the respect by playing Alabama and others regularly. Respect is earned, not issued via some Obama Congressional NCAA Playoff Bill. Those who finish second and third have been complaining since the game began. That will not change even with a playoff. NC State in NCAA basketball, and the NYGiants in recent history won it all with terrible seasons.
This is the result of society giving out trophies for anyone who competes, and schools giving out diplomas to anyone who attends regularly.
EARN IT. SOS.
by ArseCynic on Mar 6, 2010 11:41 PM EST reply actions
Alabama is 5-2 against USC. I cannot find LSU’s record against USC.
by ArseCynic on Mar 7, 2010 12:40 AM EST reply actions
"Back in the day, Top 25 teams used to play one another." – and the example used is Miami and Notre Dame?!! Those teams a great to include if you consider number 24 playing number 25 ‘one for the ages’, so be it. Last time I checked, both programs suck.
by Uberbuckeye on Mar 8, 2010 4:13 AM EST reply actions
USC has never played LSU. At least according to fanbase.com
by ALL_KNOWING on Mar 8, 2010 11:21 AM EST reply actions
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