By Jeff Sullivan - MLB Editor

Read More: 2010 spring training, New York Mets

Mar 20, 2010 - By Eric Simon of Amazin' Avenue

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Introduction

Citi Field opened in 2009 to much pomp and fanfare—and expectations of severe homerun suppression—and the Mets were 28-21, a half-game behind the Phillies as May drew to a close. Carlos Delgado had already missed three weeks to that point, and Jose Reyes was going on two weeks since his last game action. Neither would play again for the Mets in 2009.

Mets players combined to lose hundreds of games due to injury last season. In addition to Delgado and Reyes, Carlos Beltran, J.J. Putz, Johan Santana, Brian Schneider, Angel Pagan, Oliver Perez, John Maine, and Fernando Martinez, among others, all missed significant time in 2009. Not even Shane Victorino could provide enough grission to make up for all of those lost games.

Injuries weren't the only problem, of course. Even the regulars who managed to stay on the field were often mediocre versions of themselves. David Wright in particular had an atypically pedestrian season in the power department, socking a mere ten homeruns and slugging just .447, forty points less than Angel Pagan (!).

The defense all-around left a lot to be desired, as the team's infield and outfield range was virtually nonexistent, particularly when Beltran was on the shelf. The shoddy glovework only exacerbated the deficits of an undertalented pitching staff that finished 15th in the National League in xFIP, 13th in FIP, and 14th in strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Offensively, the team had the fifth-worst wOBA and the sixth-worst weighted runs created (wRC) in the National League. Add it all up and you get a 70-92 team with the highest payroll in the league and 23 games—not to mention three other teams—separating them from first place.

As for Citi Field, it greatly favored pitchers as a run-scoring environment, but through an apparent small-sample-size aberration led to more home runs in Mets home games than those played on the road. You can count on this disparity swinging the other way once the ballpark has a few years of data upon which to judge it.

Position Players

C: Rod Barajas/Henry Blanco
1B: Daniel Murphy/Mike Jacobs
2B: Luis Castillo
3B: David Wright
SS: Alex Cora
LF: Jason Bay
CF: Angel Pagan
RF: Jeff Francoeur

Injuries tore apart the 2009 Mets and two weeks from Opening Day they already threaten to do the same to the 2010 version. Superstar center fielder Carlos Beltran went under the knife for arthroscopic knee surgery in January and the most sanguine outlook for him is a May return. Angel Pagan, who had a surprisingly productive year in 2009, should be the starter to begin the season. Out machine Gary Matthews Jr. will be waiting in the wings should Pagan struggle early on. Shortstop Jose Reyes was recently diagnosed with an overactive thyroid and has been prohibited from participating in any baseball activities until his levels return to normal. His prognosis is a 2-8 week recovery period, which puts his chances of being on the Opening Day roster in serious jeopardy (thus Alex Cora's name reluctantly penciled in at shortstop above).

Jason Bay was the big offseason acquisition for the Mets, signing with New York for four years and $66 million plus a vesting fifth year option worth $17 million. Bay is expected to provide plus-plus offense and minus-minus defense, but with Reyes and Beltran out for a while the Mets will need Bay's bat in the middle of the lineup to help generate runs. Meanwhile, a somewhat disappointing 2009 for Wright leaves the perennial star—and the Mets by extension—eager for a 2010 bounceback.

Jeff Francoeur was much better in the second half of the season with the Mets (.350 wOBA) than he was in the first half with the Braves (.278 wOBA). He doesn't walk much (114 unintentional walks in nearly 3,000 career plate appearances), but he makes good contact and can hit the ball a long way. If the Mets get the second-half Francoeur of 2009 they'll have an above-average right fielder. If they get the first-half version (aka the 2006 and 2008 version) they'll have a $5 million replacement level player.

Speaking of replacement level, meet the right side of the Mets' infield. Likely starting first baseman Daniel Murphy could be a useful utility player but is a below average hitter, particularly at first base. Mike Jacobs, in his second go-round with the Mets, could steal some at-bats from Murphy and turn them effortlessly into outs. At second base is the increasingly defensively inept Luis Castillo, who walks and steals enough to be decent but his utter lack of power and range keep him from being anything better than that.

Behind the plate is a who's who of moderately useful backstops, with Rod Barajas the likely starter splitting time with Henry Blanco. Should either falter or incur injury, Chris Coste and Omir Santos, plus upstart Josh Thole, will be waiting to crouch in.

Rotation

1. Johan Santana
2. Mike Pelfrey
3. Oliver Perez
4. John Maine
5. Jon Niese/Fernando Nieve/Nelson Figueroa/Hisanori Takahashi

If you thought the Mets' lineup was iffy, allow me to introduce you to their starting rotation.

Up first is Johan Santana, who has been great (but not stupendous) in his two seasons with the Mets and has lost some zip on his fastball and, likely as a result, a worrying drop in his strikeout rate. He also missed the last month of 2009 following left elbow surgery to remove some bone chips, so his return to superstardom is anything but guaranteed. In any event, he's the best the Mets have and still projects to be one of the better starting pitchers in the National League.

There's a precipitous dropoff from Santana to the rest of the rotation, which begins with sinker baller Mike Pelfrey. Pelfrey seemed to regress from 2008 to 2009—his ERA jumped from 3.72 to 5.03—but his home run-adjusted xFIP was almost identical—4.49 versus 4.52—so there's reason to be optimistic about his 2010. He has been working on a splitter this spring and if he can do a better job inducing ground balls from left-handed batters (1.34 groundball-to-flyball ratio versus lefties as opposed to 2.42 against righties) he could very well be a solid number two starter.

Oliver Perez and John Maine looked like burgeoning stars heading into the 2008 season, but two years later we're left with far more questions than answers. Questions like: Will either actually ever be a good pitcher again? or Why have the baseball gods forsaken me? Last offseason, Perez got married and we were told that a more mature Ollie would settle in and reach his potential. Mission accomplished: a 6.40 FIP. This offseason he actually excercised and is apparently in The Best Shape Of His Life; Outcome? To be determined.

Maine threw just 81 innings in 2009, missing more than half the season with general weakness and fatigue in his throwing shoulder. The half of the season he spent on the field wasn't much better, as he struck out just 55 batters while walking more than four every nine innings. Not that spring training stats should be taken too seriously, but Maine has been pretty lousy in extremely limited action so far. His outlook for 2010 is pretty hazy.

The fifth starter's spot is still up in the air, with rookie Jon Niese the hopeful favorite with journeyman Nelson Figueroa, never-will-be Fernando Nieve, and Japanese import Hisanori Takahashi all vying for a slice of the pie.

Bullpen

Francisco Rodriguez (CL)
Ryota Igarashi
Sean Green
Pedro Feliciano
Bobby Parnell
Kiko Calero
Fernando Nieve/Nelson Figueroa/Hisanori Takahashi

Last offseason the Mets went all out to fix the bullpen, throwing cash at Francisco Rodriguez and useful players at the Mariners to get J.J. Putz. This time around they were a little more responsible, signing Ryota Igarashi, Kelvim Escobar, and Kiko Calero, plus the versatile Takahashi, to reasonable, short-term deals.

Rodriguez is signed to a horrible contract and his peripherals are all heading in the wrong direction, but he's apparently back to wearing the goggles this year so yay for that. Escobar will miss the start of the season with right shoulder soreness and the prognosis for his return is not yet known. Calero was a late signing and might not be quite ready for Opening Day. He's also basically a ROOGY in a bullpen that alread features a guy who can't get lefties out (Sean Green).

The Mets are also counting on an influx of talent from Nippon Professional Baseball, as Igarashi figures to be their top setup man while Takahashi could contribute in the bullpen or rotation or both. Takahashi gives the Mets a second lefty out of the pen, joining fellow southpaw—and extreme LOOGY—Pedro Feliciano.

Bobby Parnell is a converted starter who doesn't seem especially adroit at either role. He seems to have been guaranteed a relief spot despite having apparently done nothing to deserve it, unless you count "keeping your arm attached to your body" to his credit.

In The System

There’s a pretty big gap right now between the popular perception of the Mets farm system and its actual quality. Despite getting frequently picked on by the local media, the system is much closer to the middle of the pack than the bottom tier. The Mets may lack a truly elite prospect, but the depth in the upper levels is really starting to fill out, and there are plenty of arms and international bonus babies coming through the lower levels ready to keep the pipeline of talent running. The Mets have a well-deserved reputation for "sticking to slot" in the draft, but a solid international program and good scouting have allowed the system to remain respectable nonetheless.

The honor of organizational top prospect is between OF Fernando Martinez and RHP Jenrry Mejia. It seems like Martinez has been a prospect forever, but he’s still only 21 and was just beginning to tap his raw power potential in Triple-A in 2009. Mejia is a small right-handed pitcher who can get his fastball close to triple digits along with a changeup and curve that both flash plus potential. Most likely to contribute in 2010 are LHP Jon Niese and C Josh Thole. Niese is essentially a finished product. He throws a wicked curveball, two decent fastballs, and an average changeup. He lacks ace upside, but may already be the third- or fourth-best pitcher in the organization. Thole is a low-power high-contact hitter who has walked more than he’s struck out at virtually every minor league stop he’s made. The problem is he’s only been a catcher for two full seasons, and could use another year in Triple-A to hone his defense. If the Mets had not recently signed Rod Barajas, Thole would have been in the mix for starting catcher in 2010.

Despite a knack for draft-day failures, the Mets have done an excellent job importing international talent. Infielders Wilmer Flores and Ruben Tejada both rank among the organization’s top prospects, along with pitchers Jeurys Familia and Juan Urbina. Though most of the franchise’s recent draft classes have been weak, 2008 marks a major exception. Ike Davis, the Mets' top overall pick from 2008, is already being hailed as the first baseman of the future; he could see big-league action perhaps as soon 2010‘s All-Star break, but more likely he will be held back until 2011. Infielder Reese Havens and RHP Brad Holt, also first round picks from 2008, both seem primed to have significant big-league impact as well. Beyond that, there have been two major surprises from this draft class: Third-round pick Kirk Nieuwenhuis—an outfielder who has displayed impressive power, speed, and defensive tools; and 24th round pick RHP Kyle Allen—a two-way player in college who was considered an early-to-mid-round talent that fell due to a strong perceived commitment to attend NC State.

This is a solid system overall, with more depth and upper-level talent than many would have you believe. The fact that Martinez and Niese failed to graduate from their rookie status last year helps, but there is more depth in the mid and lower levels than the mainstream media typically suggests. Even if there is no true "A" prospect, there’s lots of upside and lots of polish in the upper levels, just spread out among different players. Don’t be surprised if the Mets' farm is more productive in 2010 and 2011 than it has been since Omar Minaya first took over the organization.

Miscellaneous

Manager Jerry Manuel doesn't appear to have any discernible on-field strengths. His approach to lineup construction leaves plenty to be desired, as he often inserts low on-base percentage guys at the top because of distant-past accomplishments or because they have been previously miscast as table-setters. He seems to generally understand that the team's best hitters should bat somewhere in the middle of the order, and he's not as reluctant as his predecessor Willie Randolph to give young players central roles in the lineup.

Manuel also holds fast to the conventional belief that a closer should pitch the ninth inning under any and all circumstances, even when higher-leverage situations in earlier innings clearly call for use of the team's best pitcher. This miscarriage of rationality is hardly Manuel's exclusive domain, as basically every big-league manager hews to that same illogical tenet of post-reserve-clause baseball. That he's not alone in his transgression shouldn't absolve Manuel of this unambiguous case of bullpen mismanagement; a dumb thing is still dumb even if thirty people think otherwise.

Manuel does have a good rapport with the local media, and his casual references to everything being 'gangsta' surely endear him to the almost-entirely-white press corps. He also wears emo glasses, which undoubtedly led to the Mets' viewership surge last year among tweens and Rivers Cuomo.

Hitting coach Howard Johnson seems to have a good relationship with his hitters, but you wouldn't know it, given that they performed in 2009 as if they wanted him gone.

Pitching coach Dan Warthen is unspectacular in every way imaginable. He never seems particularly interested in what's going on in the game, and his pitchers appear equally ambivalent about whatever he has to say when he goes out to the mound.

Conclusion

This is an important season in the front office career of General Manager Omar Minaya. Minaya is very comfortable at the margins: acquiring—either via free agency or trade—elite, usually expensive, talent, and foraging for lost talent or last drops of usefulness amid the baseball scrap heap. The signings of Carlos Beltran, Pedro Martinez, and Jason Bay representing the former; bargain-basement pickups like Fernando Tatis, Jose Valentin, and Pedro Feliciano to name a few of the latter.

Where Minaya struggles is in the middle area, often failing miserably to complement his high-priced superstars with mid-level veterans. The Mets' team payroll is regularly among the highest in baseball, but it is disproportionately allocated to a few players with far less earmarked for the rest of the roster. The result of this resource-bungling is that the talent distribution is heavily concentrated in a handful of players, magnifying the deleterious impact of an injury to one of those players. A more uniform distribution of talent across the roster would help mitigate against the effects of losing any particular player.

The upshot of all of this is that the Mets will spend well over $100 million on players in 2010 but will still enter the season with near-replacement value at first base, second base, catcher, and in right field, while injuries will force them into playing less-than-ideal candidates in center field and at shortstop as well. That's a big problem, and if the Mets don't find a way to outpace their expectations for 2010 and erase the bad memories of 2009, Minaya—and others—could be out of a job come October, if not sooner.