SB Nation's 2010 MLB Previews: Chicago White Sox, Runs Come At A Premium

By Chris of South Side Sox

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Introduction

The White Sox made some of the biggest changes of any team in baseball between '09 and '10; they just happened to get started a little earlier than most. Kenny Williams started the major overhaul at the trade deadline in July, picking up Jake Peavy even though he had already nixed one deal and was now on the DL for the foreseeable future, and continued with the surprise waiver claim of Alex Rios from the Blue Jays a couple weeks later. In two moves he had added $100+M to his payroll over the next few years. So you can forgive Williams a bit for not making a considerable splash this off-season either via trade or free agency.

The Sox' offense finished the '09 season ranked 10th in the AL in OBP and 11th in slugging despite playing in one of the league's most hitter-friendly parks. One would assume that a team with those rankings would reestablish a commitment to getting men on base and hitting the ball over the wall... Not the White Sox. They seem to think the reason they had a poor '09 was because they were too one-dimensional, not that they just plain weren't any good at too many spots.

Position Players

Infield

The Sox infield returns four members from the '09 squad (Paul Konerko, Alexei Ramirez, A.J. Pierzynski and Gordon Beckham) but Beckham moves from third base to second. Though he was originally drafted as a shortstop, most scouts felt that Beckham would be shifted to second in the majors. He closed out the the '09 season by proving he could handle the hot corner, but a similar improvement in Ramirez' defense as the season wore on has the Sox siding with the scouts.

The surprise story of the Sox off-season is just how much they apparently like Mark Teahen, acquired from the Royals for Chris Getz and Josh Fields before the Yankees could even shake off their post-World Series celebration hangover. Not only did the Sox act quickly in acquiring Teahen; they signed him to a 3-year extension buying out his arbitration years (and a year of free agency) before the off-season was over. Teahen halted a 2-year decline in all his rate stats last season with a triple slash line of .271/.325/.408, but his slide continued in the peripheral stats (K/BB). It's tough to see what the heck Kenny Williams sees in Teahen, who isn't exactly known for his glove either (-10.1 UZR/150 for his career). They seem to think that by sticking him at a position, unlike his last few seasons in KC where he's bounced around, that he'll magically recapture his '06 form (.290/.357/.517).

Outfield

Technically, the Sox return two members from the crew that finished up their '09 outfield. Functionally, they're hoping for an completely revamped outfield. Carlos Quentin was hampered all season long by plantar fasciitis, for which the only real treatment is rest, and was a shell of the player who was a solid September away from an '08 AL MVP. Alex Rios, mired in his worst season since breaking into the big leagues, was picked up off waivers from the Blue Jays in August, and only got worse once he got to Chicago. Realistically, Rios only has one way to go from his late-season performance in Chicago. The front office is counting on him to replicate his '08 numbers and play a solid center field, which would make the remaining $59M on his contract much easier to swallow.

Juan Pierre is the fresh face in the outfield. Pierre was a target of Williams when he was last a free agent, but the Sox weren't willing to go anywhere near the $44M price tag the Dodgers offered up. Instead they waited a few years for the Dodgers to grow disillusioned with paying a 4th outfield type premium money, and picked him up for about what he was worth ($8.5M over 2 years). The public (and maybe the Sox front office) probably best remembers Pierre for the two month run he had replacing Manny Ramirez last year, but his true talent lies much closer to his '07-'08 lines that played his way out of the Dodgers lineup

DH/Bench

I package the DH and bench together in one category for a reason; they're essentially the same thing. The Sox had the opportunity to re-sign Jim Thome (OPS of .973, .864, and .863 his last three years in Chicago) for a song (presumably at the same price, or even less than the $1.5M he's guaranteed by the Twins). Similarly, they entered into the late-developing Johnny Damon derby, but ultimately decided that "flexibility" in the form of being able to play a different bench bat every day and rotate position players through the DH spot was worth more than the 10-25 extra runs that Thome or Damon would have provided over what is, by definition, a replacement-level DH.

Instead, the Sox will be hoping for a rebound season from Andruw Jones, who has admittedly had a nice spring. But we all know how reliable spring training performance is at predicting the following season's major league success. Jones will share DH and 4th outfield duties with Mark Kotsay, presumably in some sort of platoon. But quadragenarian Omar Vizquel figures to get some non-nominal playing time at DH as well. Yes, Omar Vizquel, Designated Hitter. This is the type of situation you can get yourself into as a GM when you allow your manager to have too much input in your roster construction, especially when that manager is named Ozzie Guillen

Rotation

Here is your reason to be optimistic about the White Sox. They might have the most unheralded rotation in baseball. I've already mentioned Jake Peavy, who already has a Cy Young to his name. On most teams Peavy would be expected to carry more than his fair share of the pitching load. But in Chicago, he's just one of a stable of inning-eating horses that includes two of the top dozen starting pitchers in the AL.

Mark Buehrle has proven to be one of the most durable starters in the game of baseball, topping 200 innings pitched in 9 straight seasons, and ranked 4th in the AL in quality starts the last two seasons. John Danks struggled in '09 with circulation issues in his fingers and saw his walk-rate spike, but still managed to post a 3.77 ERA. Over the last two seasons (395 IP), he ranks 6th in the AL in ERA+ and 9th in quality starts. Gavin Floyd has been a revelation, shaking off the reputation of a guy who couldn't hack it in the big leagues to become an underrated well-above-average big league pitcher in Chicago. Over the last two seasons (399 IP), he ranks 11th in the AL in both ERA+ and quality starts.

The Sox rotation probably gets overlooked because none of these pitchers figures to compete for the Cy Young in '10. They're only consistently very good instead of excellent. But when you've got four starters as good as the White Sox front four, it almost doesn't matter how good your offense is. . . almost.

Rounding out the rotation is Freddy Garcia, who turned in a surprisingly effective 50+ innings to close out '09. Garcia hasn't consistently pitched well since breaking down following the Sox World Series run in '05, but the Sox won't be counting on him too heavily. Should he falter, Daniel Hudson, who vaulted from low-A ball to the majors with a stop everywhere in between last season, is being groomed to be the Sox next homegrown underrated innings eater.

Bullpen

The Sox '09 bullpen was much maligned by fans and media alike. Bobby Jenks posted the highest ERA of his career, and for most of the seasons was plagued by questions about his velocity. In reality, the Sox didn't have any more or less trouble with their bullpen than the rest of baseball. They (and the Chicago area media) seem to focus on it more than most. It's this misguided focus on an area of the game that is intrinsically volatile that leads to decisions like handing a declining Scott Linebrink a 4-year deal, which, ironically, is about the surest way to make sure your bullpen ends up looking bad.

Thankfully, the Sox have seemingly focused on what they do best; find struggling power arms, apply mechanical tweak, a little pixie dust and hope for the best. J.J. Putz is the big addition to the pen. Brought in to take over the role of Octavio Dotel, Putz has shaken off surgery for bone spurs and appears fully healthy once again. He'll join fellow flamethrowers Matt Thornton, whose relationship with Putz factored heavily into that signing, and Tony Pena. Sergio Santos, a converted shortstop with only a year of professional mound experience, is throwing in the high-90's this spring with a sharp high-80's slider and figures to fill out the Sox bullpen with some high-upside stuff.

In The System

Thanks in large part to the graduation of Beckham, who was glossed over in this preview but figures to be the face of the franchise for the foreseeable future, and the acquisition of Peavy, who cost the Sox a back-end starter in Clayton Richard and their '07 first-rounder Aaron Poreda, the Sox farm system has once again fallen to among the lower third in baseball. The Sox talent pool may not be deep or particularly wide, but it does contain a few impact players who should see action in '10.

The Sox controversial decision to forgo a major league DH is softened a bit by the big bat of Tyler Flowers, acquired last off-season in the Javier Vazquez trade. He'll start the year as the catcher in AAA Charlotte, but will probably spend usual off-days as the Knights DH. When questioned last week about the Sox DH situation, assistant GM Rick Hahn said,

"There’s already a list [of replacements] in place, the are already conversations that have taken place, as it does with any potential foible in a roster construction. There is always a contingency plan and this is no exception."

When pressed, he refused to name any name other than Flowers, as tampering rules prevent him from talking about any player under contract with another team. If and when the Sox DH-of-back-ups fails, Flowers, whose long-term place is behind the plate, will be the first option.

Similarly, Hudson provides the same insurance against injury or ineffectiveness in the rotation or pen. Most projection systems have him as the Sox' 4th-5th best starter, and he could probably hold his own for a full season at the majors, but he needs to refine his breaking stuff, specifically a curveball that comes with an invitation, no RSVP necessary.

Although no other Sox prospect of note figures to contribute in '10, they've got a couple of interesting outfielders in Jordan Danks (John's brother) and '09 first-rounder Jared Mitchell, who tore an ankle tendon in Spring Training and could miss the season. A pair of "third base" prospects rounds out the players of note in the high minors; Dayan Viciedo, a 21 year old Cuban who the Sox committed $10M towards last off-season, seems destined for first base and has the air of future bust on him, Brent Morel is a lightly-regarded '08 draft pick whose progress makes the Teahen signing all the more questionable, and C.J. Retherford is a completely unheralded, undrafted utility player with a club foot who's destined to be one of Hawk Harrelson's favorites.

Miscellaneous

You can't discuss the White Sox without talking about Ozzie Guillen. His high-energy, say-anything-at-anytime approach has its charms (the media is never at a loss for something to write about) and its drawbacks. It appears to this former ardent Guillen supporter, however, that the negatives may be beginning to outweigh the positives. In Guillen's six years on the south side, the White Sox have never finished with a better winning percentage in the second half than in the first. Part of that is due to a farm system that rarely produces mid-season major-league-ready talent, but at some point you have to acknowledge that some of it has to be attributed to players who start to tune Guillen out as his act wears thin.

Just this past week, the White Sox were embroiled in "Twittergate," which in Guillen's defense wasn't about him, but was literally related to him. His son, Oney, took to Twitter and said some disparaging things about the organization, attacked the cuisine at a Kenny Williams-backed restaurant, and eventually resigned at the behest of his much more relevant father. It's the type of thing that the "Good Guys" have come to take in stride, says Paul Konerko:

"As a rule of thumb, twice a month something is going to come up. Sometimes it's back-to-back in a week, sometimes every other week, but if you're a White Sox player you just kind of prepare that it's not boring around here and things kind of pop up. That's just the way it is. There's always some controversies that pop up here that are a little different than most teams, but that's the way we roll here."

Conclusion

The White Sox will not be a bad team in '10; the starting pitching depth will make sure of that. But an offense that needed an infusion of OBP and SLG got instead Juan Pierre, Mark Teahen and Alex Rios. That trio averages about 40 walks per 600 at-bats, and a combined 35 homers a year. Add in a DH-by-committee-of-bench-players, and it sure doesn't feel like the Sox have done enough to address their most glaring weaknesses.

Based on their roster at the time, they probably finished the '09 season as the '10 favorites in the AL Central. But a backwards off-season that saw them shopping for bench bats first, and resting on their laurels since mid-December while the Minnesota Twins waited until until gems like Orlando Hudson and Jim Thome fell into their lap, has flopped the two teams' pre-season outlooks.

Based on my supremely scientific back-of-a-used-cocktail-napkin calculations, the White Sox have a 29.37% chance of winning the AL Central. Even if, thanks to their 4-deep rotation, you give them a better than 1-in-8 chance of taking home the World Series crown from there, it still wouldn't be worth the play at 12/1 odds. So if you find yourself walking up to a betting window anytime soon, do yourself a favor and find a better play than the White Sox to win the series. You might as well take Cornell over Kentucky.