Can HISTORY help predict who will be a BUST in the 2010 draft?

Using some info from and their series of "Looking back at the ______draft: 6 yrs later"

I have attempted to make some predictions

The first on my list of who will most likely be a bust from the 2010 NFL draft is Dez Bryant WR, Oklahoma State

Comparison: Charles Rogers, Michigan State.  second overall to the Lions.   Andre Johnson, Miami  was almost universally considered to be just a notch below Rogers, who despite tremendous athletic ability, did not develop into one of the most physically dominating receivers in the NFL as predicted.  Instead, he was brittle, had a poor work ethic, some off-the-field problems, and was simply not very good. Everybody loved Rogers, and as it turned out, everybody was 100 percent wrong.


#2 is Terrence Cody, NT Alabama

Comparison: Aaron Gibson OT, the behemoth offensive lineman from Wisconsin.  I struggled to find a comparision due to Cody's uniquness until I remembered the 378 pound Gibson, a player whos size made him immovable, but injuries due to his weight constantly hounded him, and Gibson became a journeyman.


#3 is Bryan Bulaga, LT Iowa

Comparison:  Robert Gallery , LT Iowa was to be the next great tackle prospect, a superb technician who would make a seamless transition to the pros . Gallery's technical skill and the relative dearth of quality pass rushers in the Big Ten camouflaged the fact that he simply wasn't quick enough out of his stance to take away the outside edge from NFL defensive ends.


#4 is Taylor Mays, S USC

Comparision: Roy Williams, S Oklahoma.  Those who have not watched much NFL since 2004 may wonder how I can call Roy a bust.  But the former runner-up for 2002 Defensive rookie of the year, and former pro-bowler was always a liability in coverage, although early in his career it was masked better  than later.


#5 is Earl Thomas, S Texas

Comparision:  Bob Sanders, S Iowa, 44th overall to the Colts who  turned out to be an excellent player --  the 2007 Defensive Player of the Year. The knock on him at Iowa was that he was undersized and potentially too fragile to hold up in the NFL. He has done nothing to disprove that notion.


#6 is Golden Tate: WR, Notre Dame

Comparison: Florida State's Peter Warrick was seen as head and shoulders above of the rest of the pack.  Warrick, No. 4 overall to the Bengals,  never emerged as a No. 1 receiver in Cincinnati, certainly qualifies. Both have similar skill sets, the ability to juke and make defenders miss.  Both are at their best at the NFL level as a slot/3rd WR, more worthy of a second round pick, but not a first.


#7 Arrelious Benn, WR Illinois

Comparision: Michael Jenkins, WR, Ohio State.  Benn like Jenkins will likely be a late 1st round pick.  Dont concider MJ a bust? tell that to Falcons fans who have seen him total just 8 TDs the last three years combined. Benn has  only 10 TDs starting 3 years for Illinois before leaving after his Jr season.  To expect more than 10 TDs during Benn's first three years in the NFL will leave one disappointed.


#8 Everson Griffin, DE USC

Comparision: Kenechi Udeze, DE USC, 20th overall to the Vikings  seemed like a perfect fit for the pass-rush starved Vikings. Udeze played well as a rookie, notching 36 tackles and five sacks.  Udeze started for another two seasons, but he was never able to improve on his rookie sack total  and didn't have the pure pass-rushing skills to be taken in the top half of the first round.


#9 Jean-Pierre Paul, DE South Florida

Comparison: Andre Wadsworth, DE FSU 1988,  Reluctant to pick on Gaines Adams due to his unfortunate death, I am still not completely comfortable wih the Wadsworth comparison. JPP has been "mocked" as high as #3, the position where Wadsworth was picked, however his "bust" was mostly due to injury. JPP is a one year wonder, that played only one year of major college football, making me want to compare him more to several NBA "busts" than NFL players.


#10 Ndamukong Suh:

Ok, actually I dont think he will be a bust, but with such high expectations he could be a major disappointment.

You say Suh is the best DT to come out in the last 10 years??  better hope its the last 20,  if Suh is drafted with the number one pick, he will be just the 7th DT drafted first overall since 1936 , and the first since 1994= Dan Wilkinson

2nd if Suh is drafted with the first pick, he will be the 2nd HIGHEST PAID  DT in the league after Albert Haynesworth, who is listed as 6'6 and 350 vs Suh 6'4 305, Suh wont throw around 320 pound NFL guards and centers like he did at nebraska, or like Haynesworth does now.

3rd  much like Mario Williams was thought to be a major mistake until both Reggie Bush and Vince Young's failures,  if EITHER QB Bradford or Clausen becomes the next Joe Montana, it wont matter if Suh becomes the next Reggie White, he will be considered a mistake.

4th I see 5 DTs (Suh, McCoy, B. Price, D. Williams, Cody) plus college DT likely moves to NFL 3-4 DE (Odrick) all drafted in the 1st round.   With alot of value in the later rounds (Arthur Jones, Lamarr Houston, Tyson Alualu, ect) the point being four years from now there will be alot of competition for who is the BEST DT to come out of this years draft class, and certainly McCoy and someone COULD end up being better Pros, even if Suh was better in college.

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