With the draft being as deep as it is this year I don't think many teams are going to have the incentive to trade up. I think you are only going to see this for teams desperate to fill needs at key positions. Positions, that if not filled could tank your whole season: QB, LT, and NT. I see Bradford and Claussen being gobbled up in the top 4 and I don't think a team will want to reach for a LT. However, I can a NT hungry team making a move for either Dan Williams if he falls far enough or Mount Cody. More after the jump...
I'm a Chiefs fan and it is my opinion that we are the most NT hungry team in the NFL next to our division rivals the San Diego Chargers. The Chargers recently made a trade making their 2nd rounder an early one. This leads me to believe that they would take a NT like Cody or Williams and bank on their RB (Matthews?) falling to their 2nd pick. This means the Chiefs are going to have to make a decision: trade up or draft a 2nd tier project like Cam Thomas or Terrell Troup. I think they will opt for the former and attempt to jump their rivals in the 1st round by trading up with the Dallas Cowboys.
I think this makes sense for many reasons. Pioli values defensive lineman more than any position besides QB. Cody, the one likely to fall, has risen up draft boards lately due to his weight loss. He comes from Saben's defense and is really the only pure zero technique in this draft. The Cowboys are picking right before San Diego and I think they would be willing to trade down. I often find the Cowboys, who do not have a lot of needs, a hard pick to pin down. I think they would get better value by gaining ground later in the draft and picking at the top of the 2nd. Now, I'm also going to assume that the Chiefs most tradeable asset, Derrick Johnson, is going to get moved prior to draft day. Derrick isn't a good fit for our defense, he is inconsistent, and didn't even start the entire year, we just brought him in on sub packages. However, he does bring playmaking ability evidenced by the Broncos game where he had two INTs for TDs. I think his value is currently a late 3rd to early 4th round pick. And I think I perfect marriage would be with the Falcons.
Our GM Pioli and Atlanta's GM Dimitroff have a close relationship and have already made a trade with each other, Tony Gonzolaz. Now, Atlanta just received a 3rd round comp pick. I think this would make them more apt to trade their 3rd. They are in a win now mentality and DJ would provide an instant playmaking ability that no 3rd round linebacker could. Their biggest holes right now in my opinion are DE, CB, and OLB. By trading for DJ they could focus on CB or DE for the 1st round. I think this move make a lot of sense.
Now, assuming this deal gets done it would leave the Chiefs in a favorable position to trade up. According to the NFL draft pick value chart the deal is worth a total of 140 points after the switch with our 2a and their 1st. We could offer Dallas our early 4th rounder (100 pts.), a switch w/ our 3b and their 3rd (34 pts.), and a 2011 7th (14.2 to 2 pts). We could then secure Cody as our NT of the future, while preventing our division rival of doing the same.
Of course a lot of chips have to fall in place, but I think this could very well happen. I think it might be good strategy to assume this trade on draft day for any mock draft competition. Please feel free to to tell me your opinions of this trade scenario. I'm curious to see what the Cowboys and Atlanta fans think. Thanks.