SB Nation's 2010 MLB Previews: Pittsburgh Pirates, Building A New Identity

By Charlie Wilmoth of Bucs Dugout

-----

Introduction

A T-shirt one occasionally sees around PNC Park says "Pittsburgh Baseball: Rebuilding Since 1992," 1992 being the Pirates' last winning season. One reason the Pirates keep losing, though, is that the slogan isn't quite true. For most of the administration of former GM Dave Littlefield, the Bucs could be mistaken for a rebuilding team only in that they were bad; in reality, they were scrambling to win 68 games, ignoring the draft, and blocking interesting young players with any third-tier vet willing to sign with them.

Led now by team president Frank Coonelly and GM Neal Huntington, the Pirates have begun a real rebuild that should have started long ago, spending liberally on the draft, filling their minor league system with intriguing pitching prospects, and building a young big-league team around Andrew McCutchen and some formerly well-regarded prospects (Lastings Milledge, Jeff Clement, Andy LaRoche, Ross Ohlendorf) who previous teams had tired of. The Pirates won't contend in 2010, but for once, there's a pretty good reason why, and with some luck they'll have an interesting young team beginning in 2011 or 2012.

Position Players

Ryan Doumit is the only position player left over from the Pirates' Opening Day starting lineup in 2008. When healthy, he's a good, offense-minded catcher, but he's never healthy. He hit poorly throughout much of last season while struggling with a wrist injury, but he was excellent in September, so there's reason to hope that he can bounce back this year—unless, of course, he gets hurt again.

Third baseman Andy LaRoche is the only holdover from the Pirates' April 2009 infield, and with the changes since then, the Pirates will be taking big defensive hits at shortstop (where Ronny Cedeno replaces Jack Wilson) and first base (where Clement, who has little experience at the position, will likely take over for Adam LaRoche). The new second baseman, Akinori Iwamura, should provide solid on-base skills from the second spot in the lineup, and will likely improve upon the .698 OPS Pirates second basemen produced last year. Still, while LaRoche and Clement could establish themselves as lineup mainstays with strong performances in 2010 (with LaRoche perhaps moving to second to make way for Pedro Alvarez), Iwamura and Cedeno are probably just temps, and the Pirates' infield isn't anything special overall. Shortstop, in particular, is a weakness.

Center fielder Andrew McCutchen headlines an outfield that should, at the very least, be fun to watch. Graceful, fast, and in possession of a well-rounded offensive game, McCutchen debuted in 2009 to great fanfare among Pirates fans and was even better than expected. He might regress a bit this season, but his future is still extremely bright, and his combination of defense and speed will make him a valuable player even if his bat takes a small—and hopefully temporary—step backward.

Flanking him in the corners will probably be Garrett Jones and Lastings Milledge. After a long and undistinguished minor-league career, Jones broke out in 2009, hitting 33 homers between Class AAA and the majors. Jones' huge season was so big, and sustained over such a long stretch, that it isn't farfetched to hope he'll be an above-average player in 2010, but all the usual caveats about players who inexplicably break out in their late 20s do apply. As for Milledge, the Pirates hope the attitude issues that got him drummed out of New York and then Washington are a thing of the past, and to his credit, he's been a model citizen since arriving in Pittsburgh. Still, he posted only a .728 OPS in Pittsburgh, and entering his age-25 season, he still hasn't blossomed into the star he was supposed to be while he was a young Mets prospect.

The bench will likely include shortstop Bobby Crosby (who could also be the starting shortstop if Cedeno struggles), catcher Jason Jaramillo (a good bet to start 60 or more games, given Doumit's injury issues), and outfielder Ryan Church. There are strong indications that infielder Ramon Vazquez will also win a job, although he doesn't deserve to. In any case, a number of players will compete for the last spot or two on the roster: outfielders Brandon Moss, Brandon Jones, Jon Van Every, and John Raynor (a Rule 5 pick); first baseman Steve Pearce; and utilitymen Delwyn Young and Neil Walker.

Rotation

The Pirates appear to have a fairly solid rotation, but things aren't always what they seem. They don't have any big strikeout pitchers, and the downgrades in their infield defense may make life tougher for groundballers like Paul Maholm and Zach Duke (who are both reasonable candidates to be traded at midseason, anyway). Still, Ross Ohlendorf pitched very well for the Pirates down the stretch, gaining velocity as the season progressed. And Charlie Morton possesses top-of-the-rotation stuff; he certainly doesn't have the performance record to match it, but he did pitch well after coming from the Braves in the Nate McLouth trade last year.

Kevin Hart will probably win a competition with Daniel McCutchen for the fifth spot—McCutchen pitched better last season, but the Pirates hope that Hart's poor performance last year was the result of some mechanical adjustments they made after receiving him in a trade with the Cubs, and not what they should expect going forward. If any of the Bucs' starting five should falter, Dan McCutchen and Brad Lincoln will be next in line.

Bullpen

The news about the Pirates' bullpen this offseason centered on their decision to non-tender closer Matt Capps. Their unwillingness to pay Capps a few million bucks was eye-opening at first, but they quickly  signed Octavio Dotel, probably a better pitcher, to deal similar to the one they would have had to give Capps in the arbitration process. Capps is far younger than Dotel, but his very poor 2009 season ruined any chance the Pirates had of trading him, and he would only have been under team control through 2011 anyway.

The Bucs loaded up on other veteran relievers as well—Brendan Donnelly and probably D.J. Carrasco and Javier Lopez will join Dotel in the Opening Day bullpen, all for the bargain price of about $7 million. That's a good thing, too, because the Pirates really didn't have much on hand besides flamethrowers Joel Hanrahan and Evan Meek, either of whom might become the Pirates' closer after Dotel moves on. Assuming the Pirates carry seven relievers, the loser of the Hart/Dan McCutchen battle and versatile waiver claim Chris Jakubauskas would appear to have the best chances to win the last spot, although a number of other pitchers could enter the picture as well.

In The System

After Clement, the most immediate source of help from the minors will come from third baseman Pedro Alvarez. After struggling a bit at Class A+ Lynchburg to begin his career (Carolina League pitchers wouldn't throw him strikes), the Pirates promoted Alvarez to Class AA Altoona, where he showed the sort of middle-of-the-order bat that the Bucs hoped they'd be getting when they took him second overall in the 2008 draft. He should hit for big-league power right away, although he might have some trouble maintaining a good average at first because of his relatively high strikeout totals.

Outfielder Jose Tabata and starting pitcher Brad Lincoln might also join the team at midseason. Neither should make a huge impact right away, but it's not unreasonable to hope they one day become above-average players. Tabata should hit for a decent average, with power that might develop if he really is his listed age of 21; Lincoln's good control should make him at least a back-of-the-rotation starter, but he needs to work on his changeup, or major league lefties will destroy him. If the Pirates are lucky, it's also possible that righty Tim Alderson, acquired for Freddy Sanchez in July, could make his big-league debut as well, although he lost velocity and posted very low strikeout totals as a 20-year-old in Class AA last year.

Conclusion

Looking at the Vegas odds...does it even really matter?