SB Nation's 2010 MLB Previews: Seattle Mariners, Knocking At The Door

By Jeff Sullivan of Lookout Landing

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Introduction

A year ago, an unknown GM with an unspellable name took over a hapless and hopeless Mariners organization fresh off the first $100m/100-loss season in baseball history and guided the team to an 85-77 record. It was among the bigger surprises of the year, and the only thing more surprising than the Mariners’ return to relevance was the way in which they did it – because it was what was available, the Zduriencik front office placed an emphasis on team defense, with the result being that an average pitching staff managed the top ERA in the league. Despite an awful offense and a bevy of mediocre arms, defense and Felix Hernandez brought about a successful season that concluded with Ichiro and Ken Griffey Jr. being carried off the field in the shoulders of their teammates.

Zduriencik, though, is no mystery man anymore, and where a year ago the Mariners flew under the radar, an offseason of impact acquisitions has turned this team into a media darling. People started to catch on to this team when it finished with a winning record, but it was the additions of players like Cliff Lee, Chone Figgins, and Milton Bradley that really caused the deluge of features on the team and its executives. It began to dawn on the media that Jack Zduriencik knows what he’s doing, and so it has been that his name has shown up on shows and sites the country over.

Where we stand now, then, is with the Mariners serving as the popular pick to overtake the perennial winners in Anaheim.  That the AL West projects to be an incredibly tight four-team race with no clear favorite is no matter. What matters is that, where 2008 dropped the M’s off the map, 2010 will put them in the spotlight. All eyes will be watching, and whether right or wrong, how the team does this season will go a long way towards shaping the way the front office is perceived by the people.  Anything less than competitive baseball through the bulk of September is only going to be viewed as a letdown.

Position Players

C: Rob Johnson
1B: Casey Kotchman/Ryan Garko
2B: Jose Lopez
SS: Jack Wilson
3B: Chone Figgins:
LF: Ryan Langerhans/Eric Byrnes/Milton Bradley
CF: Franklin Gutierrez
RF: Ichiro
DH: Ken Griffey Jr./Milton Bradley

Critics of the 2010 Mariners point to the lineup as being a glaring weakness. The 2009 edition scored just 640 runs, and then lost Adrian Beltre and 31-homer bat Russell Branyan in free agency. Where’s the power? How is this lineup ever going to score?

The weaknesses here are exaggerated. Make no mistake: this is not an impressive lineup, by any means. There isn’t a lot of power. The M’s are going to struggle to hit the ball over the fence. But there are other ways to score runs, and this team is equipped to do a lot of them, and do a lot of them pretty well. Between Ichiro, Bradley, and Figgins, there’s a lot of on-base ability at the top of the order. The core will be batting with ducks on the pond, and there’s enough thump there to drive runners home. None of Kotchman, Garko, Langerhans, Byrnes, or Junior is great in and of himself, but by arranging them in platoons, the M’s will be able to maximize their strengths while minimizing their weaknesses.  Byrnes, for example, isn’t likely to see much time against right-handed pitchers, which will help keep him productive.

In Figgins and Ichiro, you also get some phenomenal baserunning at the top. Baserunning, overall, tends to make a pretty small impact, but it can really help when you do it well, and this team is poised to make a number of pitchers uncomfortable.

It’s not a good offense, but it’s also not a bad offense, and critics ought to remember that, a year ago, the Mariners got a combined .617 OPS from shortstop, third base, and left field. Things are not as dire now, at the plate, as they were last season. If the M’s had the Yankees lineup they’d be WS hopefuls, but as is, they’re plenty good enough to contend.

Lost, of course, in all the discussion about this group’s ability to hit is this group’s ability to field. I don’t mean to trivialize this angle by slipping it in at the end – in Kotchman, Wilson, Figgins, Gutierrez, and Ichiro, the M’s can claim to have the best or one of the best defenders in baseball at five positions. This was the best defensive team in the league last season, and they’re poised to repeat in 2010, much to the delight of the pitching staff and fans who like efficiency. This is the team’s strength. Defense. They simply will not allow many balls in reach to go unplayed.

Note that there’s currently a spring experiment going on that’s flipped Figgins and Lopez at second and third. No decision has been made as of yet on whether this will continue into the year, but it will presumably only be permanent if both players display a high level of comfort at their new positions.

Rotation

1.    Felix Hernandez
2.    Cliff Lee
3.    Ryan Rowland-Smith
4.    Ian Snell
5.    Jason Vargas, Doug Fister, Luke French, or Garrett Olson
6.    Erik Bedard

Things certainly drop off there pretty fast. Little needs to be said about Felix and Lee. The two combined for more than 450 innings of spectacular pitching a year ago, and while there’s no such thing as a guarantee when it comes to predicting a pitcher, there’s no reason to believe that either guy is due for disappointment. Felix and Lee make up the best 1-2 in baseball, and they are, rather obviously, the two most critical players on the team.

Behind them, things get a little messy. Rowland-Smith should be fine as long as he stays healthy. He had an elbow injury a year ago and has never demonstrated superior durability, but when he’s on the mound, he plays well to the park and the defense, much in the way that Jarrod Washburn did during his miraculous first half.

Then come the real question marks. Snell was acquired because of his talent and track record, but lately he’s just been terrible, and the team will need him to start re-discovering some of his old magic pretty fast. You can’t walk as many guys as you strike out and expect to stick in a Major League rotation. There’s been little discussion of what happens if Snell continues to disappoint, but you have to figure his leash won’t be that long.

And the fifth spot is an open competition to be decided in camp. Vargas and Fister are the favorites, but none of the four is exceptional in any way, save for Olson’s ability to cough up runs at the drop of a hat. Fister offers good command of an assortment of pitches. French, Vargas, and Olson are all lefties who fit well in Safeco. Vargas’ top pitch is his change, while French’s is his slider. We’ll see how this one sorts itself out, but there’s not a lot to see, here.

The secret weapon is Erik Bedard, who’s coming off shoulder labrum surgery. It has yet to be determined just when he’ll be back, and it has yet to be determined whether he’ll be successful when he makes his return, but what the team’s hoping for is that he serves as a trade deadline acquisition of sorts, that he’ll be able to come back and get into game shape for the stretch run. On talent, Felix, Lee, and Bedard could be one of the great trios in baseball history. But caution is warranted for a player with Bedard’s history, and so he’s an unknown. He could be terrific, or he could be nothing. 

Bullpen

David Aardsma (CL)
Brandon League
Mark Lowe
Shawn Kelley

That’s the top four. The final two, or possibly three, slots will be filled by names from a massive group of candidates. Among them is Sean White, who we saw a lot in 2009, but there are questions about the health of his shoulder, and he’s competing with Rule 5 pick Kanekoa Texeira and a host of guys on minor league contracts.

The back of the bullpen, fortunately, isn’t that important, so we don’t need to worry too much about how it sorts out. What matters is the front, and the front here is pretty formidable. When combined, Aardsma, League, Lowe, and Kelley struck out a batter an inning last year, and while they all have different styles, they’re all successful. Aardsma succeeds by living off a high fastball that’s difficult to hit. League succeeds by throwing a borderline unhittable splitter. Lowe succeeds with high-90s heat and a strong slider. And Kelley, while not overpowering, throws in the mid-90s and features excellent command.

All bullpens have talented arms, and the Mariner bullpen isn’t the best. On top of that, there are concerns over how well Aardsma will be able to carry over his 2009 success into 2010, as he seemed to allow semi-regular fly balls to the warning track. This isn’t an unbeatable collection of late-inning relievers by any means. But it’s a good one, and it’ll continue to be a pretty good one even if Aardsma ends up losing his job. 

In The System

The Mariners have put together a pretty strong Major League roster, but what they don’t have is a lot of depth. Certainly, at least, not on the mound. Nick Hill and Yusmeiro Petit will be available as starters, but neither has a high ceiling, as they top out as #4’s. Hill, Josh Fields, and a couple other guys could also show up in the big league bullpen at some point this season, but then you’re likely talking about a small contribution. The best pitching prospects in the system are still a little too low.

The situation’s a little better on the position player side. Michael Saunders will be available in Tacoma should the left field situation not pan out, and he offers good discipline, gap power, and defense. Kind of in the Randy Winn mold. Adam Moore will be around as a catcher if he doesn’t break camp as Johnson’s backup, and he’s got some offensive upside to go along with a strong defensive reputation. Top draft pick Dustin Ackley is likely to rise quickly through the system as a second baseman. And then you’ve got Mike Carp and Matt Tuiasosopo in Tacoma as well, although you’d rather not see them come up to occupy significant roles in Seattle in 2010. The Mariners can’t exactly afford a major injury to anyone, but if nothing else, they would be covered better in the field than on the mound.

Miscellaneous

Whether you believe it has a major effect or not, one cannot seem to go ten minutes talking about the Mariners before someone brings up clubhouse chemistry. This team seemed to get along like none other last year, culminating in that dramatic season-ending on-field celebration. The coaching staff put a good system in place, and the front office brought in the right kinds of people.

And when you talk about the Mariners and chemistry, Milton Bradley’s name will come up, because Bradley’s pretty much never fit in, anywhere, and is coming off a nightmare of a season in Chicago. There’s a high degree of concern among many that Bradley could blow up, and that if he does, he’ll tear this team apart from the inside.

It’s important to recognize that the environment in Seattle is very much unlike the environment in Chicago. It’s very much unlike any environment in which he’s ever played. Seattle has a pretty soft media, a welcoming fan base, a supportive coaching staff, and Ken Griffey Jr., whom Bradley says is one of his idols. Bradley’s getting a fresh start here, and while it’s perfectly understandable for one to be skeptical of all this, Bradley’s history by no means serves as a guarantee that he’ll turn into a troublemaker with the M’s. It’s nothing more than a red flag, and it’s a situation that will be closely monitored by the people in power.

If the team wins and Bradley hits, he should be fine. And if he isn’t fine, he can be cut. It’s that simple. Milton Bradley isn’t going to destroy the Mariners.

Conclusion

The 2010 Mariners, as built, are a pretty good team. Not Red Sox- or Yankees-good, but pretty good. The trouble is that the Angels, Rangers, and A’s are all also pretty good teams, which puts the M’s chances of making the playoffs somewhere around 25-35%. It’s going to be a tight race. There’s a lot of talent in the AL West, and the M’s don’t possess a majority.

It is worth noting that, if the M’s *do* go on to make the playoffs, having Felix and Lee at the front of their rotation makes for a dangerous opponent in a short series. Throw in the possibility of a healthy Erik Bedard and you’ve got a team that could make some real October noise. I don’t know much about Vegas odds and thus am underqualified to comment on them, but even though the M’s aren’t among the very best teams in baseball, their outlook for the postseason makes them an interesting gamble. Get into the postseason and it’s a whole different ballgame, one for which the M’s are well-constructed.