SB Nation Bracketology: All Teams Can Do Now Is Wait

Final Bracketology: Virginia Tech And Florida In At UTEP And Miss. State's Expense

So, one of the most confusing and convoluted bubble years ever comes to a close. I honestly think I have no chance at getting the final few teams correct, as there isn't enough separation between them.

Click here to see my final projected bracket.

Here are links to my seed list and tracking spreadsheet.

Mississippi State could have made things much easier had they won the SEC Tournament today. But a DeMarcus Cousins layup at the buzzer forced overtime, where John Wall was sublime. The Bulldogs, in my opinion, needed that win to get in, but the Committee may feel differently. 

Ohio State sewed up a two seed with a win over Minnesota in the Big Ten final. The Gophers are in regardless, but again, the Committee may want to go a different route.

Duke won the ACC, but I doubt that won't be enough to wrest the top one seed from West Virginia.  

Temple won the A-10 Tournament, and I have them solidly as a three seed.

Here's a final look at my projected field.

The Rundown

Top Four Seeds: Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, West Virginia
Last Five In: California, Minnesota, Virginia Tech, Utah State, Florida
First Four Out: UTEP, Illinois, Mississippi State, William & Mary

Conference Breakdown

Big East: 8
Syracuse (1), West Virginia (1), Villanova (2), Georgetown (3), Pittsburgh (4), Marquette (7), Notre Dame (8), Louisville (10)

ACC: 7 
Duke (2), Maryland (5), Clemson (8), Florida State (8),Georgia Tech (9), Wake Forest (10), Virginia Tech (11)

Big 12: 7 
Kansas (1), Kansas State (2), Baylor (3), Texas A&M (6), Texas (7), Oklahoma State (8), Missouri (9)

Big Ten: 5 
Ohio State (2), Wisconsin (4), Purdue (4), Michigan State (5), Minnesota (12)

MWC: 4 
New Mexico (3), BYU (5), UNLV (9), San Diego State (10)

A-10: 3
Temple (3), Richmond (6), Xavier (7)

SEC: 3
Kentucky (1), Tennessee (4), Vanderbilt (5), Florida (11)

Pac-10: 2
Washington (11), California (11)

WCC: 2
Gonzaga (6), St. Mary's (10)

WAC: 2
Utah State (12), New Mexico State (13)

One Bid Leagues (20): America East (Vermont), Atlantic Sun (ETSU), Big Sky (Montana), Big South (Winthrop), Big West (UC Santa Barbara), Colonial (Old Dominion), Conference USA (Houston), Horizon (Butler), Ivy (Cornell), Metro Atlantic (Siena), Mid-American (Ohio), Mid-Eastern (Morgan State), Missouri Valley (Northern Iowa), Northeast (Robert Morris), Ohio Valley (Murray State), Patriot (Lehigh), Southern (Wofford), Southland (Sam Houston State), Southwestern (Arkansas-Pine Bluff), Summit (Oakland), Sun Belt (North Texas)

Virginia Tech Blog: Lack of Quality Wins May Doom Hokies' Tourney Hopes

SBN's Virginia Tech affiliate, Gobbler Country, has a dour outlook on their team's tournament chances. Not only does the weak non-conference schedule hamper the Hokies' chances, but as they point out, the team's supposed strength--the 10-6 ACC record--isn't as good as it looks:

The Hokies also don't have a signature win to point to this year. Florida beat Michigan State and Tennessee. Illinois beat Michigan State and Wisconsin. Virginia Tech's best win was over Wake Forest, which doesn't look as good as it did a week ago after the Deacs lost to Miami (Miami again?!?) in the first round of the ACC Tournament.

In fact, Virginia Tech's 10-6 ACC record, which a lot of people are pointing to, isn't as shiny as it first appears. The five teams the Hokies played twice this season were Miami (three times), NC State, North Carolina, Virginia and Boston College. That's right, the teams that finished 8-12 in the standings.

It was the worst possible conference schedule the Hokies could play and seven of Tech's 10 ACC wins came against those teams. The other three came against the teams that finished 5-7 in the conference: Wake Forest, Clemson and Georgia Tech.

Yikes. Usually when the committee departs from straight RPI and conference record talk, their factoring usually gravitates toward quality wins. That's bad news for the Hokies, and only historic weakness from this year's bubble is keeping them in the conversation for an at-large bid. They'll learn their fate soon enough in Blacksburg.

Sunday Lunchtime Bracketology: West Virginia Grabs Final To Seed; Duke Will Look To Take It Back

After an eventful Saturday, there are several new protected seeds in my second-to-last projection of the season. Things seem to be coming into focus with only four games left in Championship Week.

Click here to see Sunday morning's full bracket.

Here are links to my seed list and tracking spreadsheet.

Kansas looks to have sewn up the top overall seed, as they grabbed their third victory of the season over Kansas State to claim the Big 12 Tournament crown. Kentucky and Syracuse remain on the top line, and West Virginia staked a claim by winning the Big East Saturday night. Currently, I have the Mountaineers as the final No. 1 instead of Duke.

While the Mountaineers and Blue Devils have similar records against the Top 50, WVU's wins are simply better. WVU owns an 8-5 record against these teams, with victories against No. 7 (twice) Georgetown, No. 9 Texas A&M, No.13 Villanova and No. 15 Pitt. Duke, meanwhile is 7-4, with their best victories coming against No. 22 Maryland and No. 32 Georgia Tech, who they split with. They also lost to the seventh-rated Hoyas. The Blue Devils could take the top spot back with a win over the Yellow Jackets in today's ACC final, but I doubt it.

Below the top line, Tennessee and Vanderbilt may have played themselves out of protected seed range after their losses in the SEC semifinals. Purdue is also in danger after they were demolished by Minnesota in the Big Ten semis. I still have both the Volunteers and Boilermakers on the four line, so they're as protected as two Southern/Midwestern teams forced to play out West can be. Vanderbilt drops to a five, but they're in a pod with Wisconsin in Spokane.

At the other end of the field, Houston stole a bid by beating UTEP for the second time this season, meaning the Miners are squarely on the bubble. Washington also played bid thief by topping Cal in the Pac-10 final. Finally, in the WAC final, New Mexico State beat Utah State for the second time, meaning the Blue Aggies likely took another at-large.

That means teams like Virginia Tech and Florida could be out, especially if Mississippi State beats Kentucky in the SEC championship on Sunday. Illinois looked to be in good shape, but they couldn't close the deal at the end of regulation and the first overtime, before they fell to Ohio State. Then, Minnesota made Purdue look like a bunch of middle schoolers. Not quite the contrast the Illini needed. 

It will indeed be a tense day.

Here's how things stand on Selection Sunday at around noon ET.

The Rundown

Top Four Seeds: Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, West Virginia
Last Five In: California, Minnesota, Utah State, UTEP, Virginia Tech
First Four Out: Florida, Illinois, Mississippi State, William & Mary

Conference Breakdown

Big East: 8
Syracuse (1), West Virginia (1), Villanova (2), Georgetown (3), Pittsburgh (4), Marquette (7), Notre Dame (8), Louisville (10)

ACC: 7 
Duke (2), Maryland (5), Clemson (7), Florida State (8),Wake Forest (9), Georgia Tech (9), Virginia Tech (11)

Big 12: 7 
Kansas (1), Kansas State (2), Baylor (3), Texas A&M (6), Texas (7), Oklahoma State (8), Missouri (9)

Big Ten: 5 
Ohio State (2), Wisconsin (4), Purdue (4), Michigan State (5), Minnesota (11)

MWC: 4 
New Mexico (3), BYU (5), UNLV (9), San Diego State (10)

A-10: 3
Temple (3), Richmond (6), Xavier (7)

SEC: 3
Kentucky (1), Tennessee (4), Vanderbilt (5)

C-USA: 2
UTEP (12), Houston (14)

Pac-10: 2
Washington (11), California (11)

WCC: 2
Gonzaga (6), St. Mary's (10)

WAC: 2
Utah State (12), New Mexico State (13)

One Bid Leagues (20): America East (Vermont), Atlantic Sun (ETSU), Big Sky (Montana), Big South (Winthrop), Big West (UC Santa Barbara), Colonial (Old Dominion), Horizon (Butler), Ivy (Cornell), Metro Atlantic (Siena), Mid-American (Ohio), Mid-Eastern (Morgan State), Missouri Valley (Northern Iowa), Northeast (Robert Morris), Ohio Valley (Murray State), Patriot (Lehigh), Southern (Wofford), Southland (Sam Houston State), Southwestern (Arkansas-Pine Bluff), Summit (Oakland), Sun Belt (North Texas)

For a more detailed breakdown of the teams fighting for the final few spots in the tournament, visit Bubble Watch.

Saturday Bracketology: No Changes On Top Lines Friday; Saturday Could See Major Shift

The top 24 teams in Saturday's bracket are the same as they were in Friday's projection.

Click here to see Saturday's full bracket.

Here are links to my seed list and tracking spreadsheet.

With Georgetown and West Virginia facing off for the Big East crown Saturday, that could change. The Mountaineers can potentially claim a top seed with a win, while Georgetown can grab a protected seed of their own (likely Pitt's 3 seed) with a win.

Syracuse moves up to the third overall number one, as it appears Arinze Onuaku's injury isn't as severe as it appeared on Thursday.

No less than 12 bids will be handed out on Saturday, meaning we'll be ever closer to clarity, especially in the cases of California, Washington, UTEP, Utah State and San Diego State. 

Here's how things stand on Selection Eve.

The Rundown

Top Four Seeds: Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke
Last Four In: San Diego State, Virginia Tech, Washington, Rhode Island
First Four Out: Minnesota, Mississippi State, William & Mary, Mississippi
Next Four Out: Seton Hall, Arizona State, South Florida, UAB

Conference Breakdown

Big East: 8
Syracuse (1), West Virginia (2), Villanova (3), Pittsburgh (3), Georgetown (5), 
Notre Dame (8), Marquette (9), Louisville (10)

ACC: 7 
Duke (1), Maryland (5), Florida State (7), Clemson (8),Wake Forest (10), Georgia Tech (11), Virginia Tech (12)

Big 12: 7 
Kansas (1), Kansas State (2), Baylor (4), Texas A&M (6), Texas (7), Missouri (9), Oklahoma State (9)

Big Ten: 5 
Purdue (2), Ohio State (3), Michigan State (3), Wisconsin (5), Illinois (12)

A-10: 4
Temple (4), Richmond (6), Xavier (7), Rhode Island (13)

MWC: 4 
New Mexico (3), BYU (5), UNLV (8), San Diego State (12)

SEC: 4
Kentucky (1), Vanderbilt (4), Tennessee (4), Florida (12)

Pac-10: 2
California (8), Washington (11)

WCC: 2
Gonzaga (6), St. Mary's (11)

One Bid Leagues (22): America East, Atlantic Sun (ETSU), Big Sky (Montana), Big South (Winthrop), Big West, Colonial (Old Dominion), Conference USA, Horizon (Butler), Ivy (Cornell), Metro Atlantic (Siena), Mid-American, Mid-Eastern, Missouri Valley (Northern Iowa), Northeast (Robert Morris), Ohio Valley (Murray State), Patriot (Lehigh), Southern (Wofford), Southland, Southwestern, Summit (Oakland), Sun Belt (North Texas), Western Athletic

For a more detailed breakdown of the teams fighting for the final few spots in the tournament, visit Bubble Watch.

Friday Bracketology: Despite Loss And Onuaku Injury, Syracuse Holds On To Top Seed

Thanks to an overwhelming number of games Thursday and a good amount of time spent reviewing seeding, particularly in the middle of the bracket, this bracket looks significantly different from Thursday's version.

Click here to see Friday's full bracket.

Here are links to my seed list and tracking spreadsheet.

On the top line, there's one minor change. Syracuse drops down to the fourth overall number one seed after their loss to Georgetown in the Big East quarterfinals and Arinze Onuaku's knee/quad injury. Even with that setback, the Orange aren't likely to fall to the two line, especially as West Virginia's best shot at a high RPI win on the way to a Big East tournament crown would be against Georgetown in the final. With the way this tournament's unfolded so far, that's not a result to bank on.

Ohio State jumped back up to the two line without playing a game, as New Mexico struggled to beat lowly Air Force in their Mountain West semifinal. The Buckeyes begin Big Ten tournament play Friday against archrival Michigan in the quarterfinals.

In the middle of the bracket, there was a good amount of shuffling. Teams like Richmond, Marquette, Florida State, Florida and California shifted up, while others, including Xavier, Northern Iowa, Oklahoma State, Louisville and Wake Forest dropped.

There was one at-large change after Thursday's action, as Arizona State dropped out after losing to Stanford in the Pac-10 quarterfinals. Washington, who came back to beat Oregon State in the very next game, replaces them. 

Here's how things stand with three days remaining.

The Rundown

Top Four Seeds: Kansas, Kentucky, Duke, Syracuse
Last Four In: Illinois, Mississippi, Washington, San Diego State
First Four Out: Rhode Island, Dayton, Mississippi State, William & Mary
Next Four Out: Arizona State, Seton Hall, South Florida, UAB

Conference Breakdown

Big East: 8
Syracuse (1), West Virginia (2), Villanova (3), Pittsburgh (3), Georgetown (5), Marquette (7), 
Notre Dame (9), Louisville (9)

ACC: 7 
Duke (1), Maryland (5), Florida State (7), Clemson (7), Virginia Tech (8), Wake Forest (11), Georgia Tech (12)

Big 12: 7 
Kansas (1), Kansas State (2), Baylor (5), Texas A&M (6), Texas (9), Missouri (10), Oklahoma State (10)

Big Ten: 5 
Purdue (2), Ohio State (3), Michigan State (3), Wisconsin (4), Illinois (12)

MWC: 4 
New Mexico (2), BYU (5), UNLV (8), San Diego State (13)

SEC: 4
Kentucky (1), Vanderbilt (4), Tennessee (4), Florida (10), Mississippi (12)

A-10: 3
Temple (4), Richmond (6), Xavier (7)

Pac-10: 2
California (9), Washington (12)

WCC: 2
Gonzaga (6), St. Mary's (11)

One Bid Leagues (22): America East, Atlantic Sun (ETSU), Big Sky (Montana), Big South (Winthrop), Big West, Colonial (Old Dominion), Conference USA, Horizon (Butler), Ivy (Cornell), Metro Atlantic (Siena), Mid-American, Mid-Eastern, Missouri Valley (Northern Iowa), Northeast (Robert Morris), Ohio Valley (Murray State), Patriot, Southern (Wofford), Southland, Southwestern, Summit (Oakland), Sun Belt (North Texas), Western Athletic

For a more detailed breakdown of the teams fighting for the final few spots in the tournament, visit Bubble Watch.

Thursday Bracketology: Arizona State, Ole Miss Enter; Big East Down To Eight

Conference tournament action will be well underway on Thursday, as every major conference (except for the Atlantic 10) will be in action. Therefore, expect to see things shuffle more between Friday and Sunday.

As for this projection, the biggest changes from Wednesday's bracket took place at the bottom of the at-large pool, where Seton Hall and South Florida fell out after unimpressive losses in the second round of the Big East Tournament. Their replacements were both idle Wednesday. Arizona State faces Stanford in a Pac-10 quarterfinal Thursday, while Ole Miss plays in the SEC quarterfinals Friday.

Click here to see Thursday's full bracket.

Here are links to my seed list and tracking spreadsheet.

The field breaks down in this way with four days left in the race for bids.

The Rundown

Top Four Seeds: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Duke
Last Four In: Illinois, Mississippi, Arizona State, San Diego State
First Four Out: Rhode Island, Washington, Dayton, UAB
Next Four Out: Memphis, Mississippi State, South Florida, Seton Hall

Conference Breakdown

Big East: 8
Syracuse (1), West Virginia (2), Villanova (3), Pittsburgh (3), Georgetown (6), Louisville (8), 
Notre Dame (9), Marquette (9), 

ACC: 7 
Duke (1), Maryland (5), Clemson (7), Virginia Tech (8), Florida State (10), Wake Forest (10), Georgia Tech (11)

Big 12: 7 
Kansas (1), Kansas State (2), Baylor (5), Texas A&M (6), Oklahoma State (7), Texas (9), Missouri (10)

Big Ten: 5 
Purdue (2), Ohio State (3), Michigan State (3), Wisconsin (4), Illinois (12)

MWC: 4 
New Mexico (2), BYU (5), UNLV (8), San Diego State (13)

SEC: 4
Kentucky (1), Vanderbilt (4), Tennessee (4), Florida (11), Mississippi (12)

A-10: 3
Temple (4), Xavier (6), Richmond (7)

Pac-10: 2
California (12), Arizona State (12)

WCC: 2
Gonzaga (6), St. Mary's (10)

One Bid Leagues (22): America East, Atlantic Sun (ETSU), Big Sky (Montana), Big South (Winthrop), Big West, Colonial (Old Dominion), Conference USA, Horizon (Butler), Ivy (Cornell), Metro Atlantic (Siena), Mid-American, Mid-Eastern, Missouri Valley (Northern Iowa), Northeast (Robert Morris), Ohio Valley (Murray State), Patriot, Southern (Wofford), Southland, Southwestern, Summit (Oakland), Sun Belt (North Texas), Western Athletic

For a more detailed breakdown of the teams fighting for the final few spots in the tournament, visit Bubble Watch.

Wednesday Bracketology: Butler's Win Means No At-Large Changes

Since the major conference tournaments (other than the Big East) are really getting underway Wednesday, I've updated this bracket to reflect the results of Monday and Tuesday's limited slate.

The biggest change is that Gonzaga drops down a line after their loss to St. Mary's in Monday's West Coast final. Butler moves up to the five line to replace them after their dominating Horizon League championship win Tuesday.

Since Seton Hall and South Florida both won their Big East tournament openers, and there weren't any major shocks in the early conference finals, the at-large pool remains the same as it did in Monday's bracket.

I'll have a more complete update on Thursday after the Big 12 opening round and Big East second round.

Click here to see Wednesday's full bracket.

Here are links to my seed list and tracking spreadsheet.

Here's a look at how the field breaks down with five days left.

The Rundown

Top Four Seeds: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Duke
Last Four In: Seton Hall, San Diego State, South Florida, Illinois
First Four Out: Mississippi, Arizona State, Washington, Dayton
Next Four Out: UAB, Memphis, Rhode Island, Mississippi State

Conference Breakdown

Big East: 10
Syracuse (1), West Virginia (2), Villanova (2), Pittsburgh (3), Georgetown (6), Louisville (8), Marquette (10), 
Notre Dame (10), Seton Hall (12), South Florida (12)

ACC: 7 
Duke (1), Maryland (5), Florida State (7), Virginia Tech (8), Clemson (9), Wake Forest (10), Georgia Tech (11)

Big 12: 7 
Kansas (1), Kansas State (2), Baylor (5), Texas A&M (6), Missouri (7), Oklahoma State (7), Texas (9)

Big Ten: 5 
Purdue (2), Ohio State (3), Michigan State (3), Wisconsin (4), Illinois (12)

MWC: 4 
New Mexico (2), BYU (5), UNLV (9), San Diego State (12)

SEC: 4
Kentucky (1), Vanderbilt (4), Tennessee (4), Florida (11)

A-10: 3
Temple (4), Xavier (6), Richmond (7)

WCC: 2
Gonzaga (6), St. Mary's (10)

One Bid Leagues (23): America East, Atlantic Sun (ETSU), Big Sky, Big South (Winthrop), Big West, Colonial (Old Dominion), Conference USA, Horizon (Butler), Ivy (Cornell), Metro Atlantic (Siena), Mid-American, Mid-Eastern, Missouri Valley (Northern Iowa), Northeast, Ohio Valley (Murray State), Pacific-10, Patriot, Southern (Wofford), Southland, Southwestern, Summit (Oakland), Sun Belt (North Texas), Western Athletic

For a more detailed breakdown of the teams fighting for the final few spots in the tournament, visit Bubble Watch.

SB Nation Bracketology: In The Final Week, 10 Big East Teams Is A Possibility

SB Nation's Chris Dobbertean, editor of Blogging The Bracket, returns with his projection for the Monday before Selection Sunday. He'll be updating this stream throughout the week with updates. The next will come Wednesday.

Selection Sunday is just six days away. Hopefully in that time, there will be some clarity regarding the teams at the bottom of the at-large pool. You know, the ones I've been tracking over on Bubble Watch.

It's become increasingly difficult and frustrating to try to separate the last 12 or so teams fighting for the final five or six spots. Would you have thought, just one week ago, that teams like Arizona State, Memphis and Washington would seriously be in the hunt for an at-large?

While I may not take their chances as seriously as some (especially in the case of the Tigers), they all have a chance over the next few days to get in, either by winning their conference tournaments or by winning enough games to pass the teams who are sure to fall simultaneously.

But for the moment, I have 10 Big East teams in Monday's projection.

Click here to see Monday's full bracket.

Here are links to my seed list and tracking spreadsheet.

Why? (Especially since I had Ole Miss as the last team in for my Sunday Bubble Watch update.) Well, the Pirates have more wins over teams in this projection than USF or Mississippi do. The Rebels have a better road/neutral mark than both, and the Bulls have more top 50 wins. In this case, I knock Ole Miss down a peg because of the weakness of the SEC West. All nine of their conference wins came against teams that are fighting for NIT spots at best, with several of those being closer than necessary.

Of course, all three teams will have to win some games in their conference tournaments this week to get closer to the real bracket.

Here's a look at how the field breaks down with less than a week to go.

The Rundown

Top Four Seeds: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Duke
Last Four In: Seton Hall, San Diego State, South Florida, Illinois
First Four Out: Mississippi, Arizona State, Washington, Dayton
Next Four Out: UAB, Connecticut, Memphis, Rhode Island

Conference Breakdown

Big East: 10
Syracuse (1), West Virginia (2), Villanova (2), Pittsburgh (3), Georgetown (6), Louisville (8), Marquette (9), 
Notre Dame (10), Seton Hall (12), South Florida (12)

ACC: 7 
Duke (1), Maryland (5), Florida State (7), Virginia Tech (8), Clemson (9), Wake Forest (10), Georgia Tech (11)

Big 12: 7 
Kansas (1), Kansas State (2), Baylor (5), Texas A&M (6), Missouri (7), Oklahoma State (7), Texas (9)

Big Ten: 5 
Purdue (2), Ohio State (3), Michigan State (3), Wisconsin (4), Illinois (12)

MWC: 4 
New Mexico (2), BYU (5), UNLV (9), San Diego State (12)

SEC: 4
Kentucky (1), Vanderbilt (4), Tennessee (4), Florida (11)

A-10: 3
Temple (4), Xavier (6), Richmond (7)

WCC: 2
Gonzaga (5), St. Mary's (11)

One Bid Leagues (23): America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Colonial, Conference USA, Horizon, Ivy, Metro Atlantic, Mid-American, Mid-Eastern, Missouri Valley, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Pacific-10, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Southwestern, Summit, Sun Belt, Western Athletic

Stories To Watch

The Battle For The Last One Seed: Duke replaced Kansas State after the Blue Devils throttled North Carolina and the Wildcats lost at home to Iowa State Saturday. Duke is in the driver's seat, but if Purdue can claim the Big Ten tournament crown without Robbie Hummel, they could squeeze in because of their overall profile. Ohio State, West Virginia and even K-State could jump in with a tourney title as well.

Mid-Major Conference Championship Games: Monday, in particular, is a big night for nervous bubble teams. They'll be cheering for Old Dominion in the CAA final at 7 p.m. Eastern, as Old Dominion is likely to snag an at-large if they fall. St. Mary's can ease their bubble worries by claiming the West Coast crown at 9 p.m. ET. To do that, they'll need to beat a Gonzaga team they've struggled against over the past few seasons, who is fighting to stay in Spokane for the first round. That won't happen if they fall to a six or seven seed.

Siena can book their place if they win the Metro Atlantic final at home (7 p.m. ET). A loss would be likely be fatal because of their lack of non-conference wins. However, in my opinion, if you are considering Memphis for an at-large at this point, the Saints deserve a look as well.

Later in the week, pay attention to the WAC Tournament in Reno, as Utah State has legitimate at-large chances if they don't win the conference crown.

Teams On The Verge: I already mentioned that Seton Hall and USF have little margin for error. (I discuss their cases a bit more in Bubble Watch.) But Florida, Georgia Tech and Illinois have to grab some wins in their conference tournaments. 

The Gators open the SEC Tournament against Auburn Thursday night, looking to avoid a fourth straight defeat. If they win, a quarterfinal with barely-alive Mississippi State would be an elimination game.

The Yellow Jackets cannot lose to North Carolina in the 7/10 game of the ACC Tournament on Thursday. A game with Maryland awaits in the quarterfinals if they knock off the Tar Heels.

The Illini are in similar boat to Florida. They've lost three straight, including two at home. Next up, a rematch with Wisconsin in the Big Ten quarterfinals on Friday. The Badgers handled Illinois at Assembly Hall Sunday, but the Illini beat Wisconsin in Madison when Jon Leuer was hurt.

As I will be on the road back from Richmond tonight, my next projection will come on Wednesday morning.

Visit Bubble Watch for a detailed look at the last few teams in and the group that hopes to replace them, along with game previews and recaps.