SB Nation's 2010 MLB Previews: Baltimore Orioles, More Than Just Matt Wieters

By Stacey Long, James Feldman, and Jordan Katz of Camden Chat

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Introduction

I have something to tell you, and you might want to sit down for it. The Orioles are not going to win the AL East. Now that you've recovered from that shocking fact, let's get down to business.

There aren't many baseball fans who have it rougher than those who follow the Orioles. The Kansas City Royals and Pittsburgh Pirates are really the only teams that can claim a higher level of woefulness over such a long period of time. It's reassuring to Orioles fans to say, "Hey, at least we're not the Pirates." We used to be able to say that about the Devil Rays. Man, those were the days.

But the 2010 Baltimore Orioles won't be the sad sack losers that all of baseball has come to know over the past 12 years. Once laden with high-priced mediocrity, the Orioles are younger, cheaper, and more talented than they've been in any year in recent history. I'm just going to go ahead and say it: The Baltimore Orioles are in the best shape of their lives. Promising young pitchers fill the rotation, they have arguably the best young outfield in baseball, and that impressive figure behind the plate needs no introduction.

They won't win the AL East in 2010, but they're not going to roll over, either. The Orioles have improved and are ready to move up in the standings, even if that just means finishing ahead of the Blue Jays.

Position Players

C: Matt Wieters
1B: Garrett Atkins
2B: Brian Roberts
3B: Miguel Tejada
SS: Cesar Izturis
LF: Nolan Reimold
CF: Adam Jones
RF: Nick Markakis
DH: Luke Scott

Bench: Felix Pie (OF), Chad Moeller (C), Robert Andino (SS/2B), Ty Wigginton (1B/2B/3B)

The Orioles didn't lose any position players of consequence for 2010 as only Melvin Mora and Aubrey Huff left the fold, replaced by free agents Miguel Tejada and Garrett Atkins. Both signed on one year deals, Tejada as a placeholder for 3B prospect Josh Bell and Atkins as a reclamation project. 

Tejada, now in his second stint with the Orioles, isn't the MVP caliber slugger that the Orioles first signed in 2004. Now 36 years old, he isn't considered a viable defensive shortstop and will play 3B for the Orioles in 2010. His power numbers have slipped in recent years but Tejada can still hit. He'll provide an offensive upgrade from Mora that hopefully won't be negated by his defense at his new position.

Club officials claim to have reviewed video of Atkins and have high hopes of returning him to his earlier form. It's not entirely impossible that Atkins will succeed but it's certainly a long shot. Not many 30 year olds decline for three straight years and then rebound, especially not when they're taken out of Coors Field and plopped down in the American League East. Should Atkins completely bomb he could lose his position to former top prospect Michael Aubrey or even DH Luke Scott.

Double play partners Cesar Izturis and Brian Roberts make a good team but feature nearly opposite strengths. Izturis' glove is mighty but his bat is weak. He is nearly incapable of taking a walk (career BB% of 4.9) or hitting for any power (.331 career SLG with 14 HR) but he plays shortstop better than almost anyone in the American League. Roberts, now 32 years old, has lost a step at second base but continues to put up very solid offensive numbers. Roberts can be counted on for 40-50 doubles, 10-15 HR, and an OPS in the low 800s.

The Orioles are in the enviable position of having four young, talented outfielders in Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, Nolan Reimold, and Felix Pie. As it stands the first three will see the most playing time in the outfield but Pie showed potential to be very valuable in 2009 and will be ready to step in should any of the starters suffer injury or if Reimold doesn't repeat his 2009 success. 

Markakis is the veteran of the group who, at age 26, is entering his fifth full season with the Orioles. Markakis' 2009 season, while respectable, was a disappointment to those who watched him improve every year he'd been in the league. His huge decrease in walks dragged down his OBP and SLG. There's no reason to think that Markakis won't bounce back, however, and he's still regarded as one of the finest right fielders in baseball.

In 2009, Jones gave Orioles fans and the rest of the American League a preview of what they can expect from him in center field for the foreseeable future. He started the season on fire, slugging his way to his first All Star appearance. Unfortunately he slowed down considerably in the second half as the plate discipline he showed earlier disappeared. He also struggled with injury and was shut down for the year in the beginning of September due to an ankle sprain. If Jones can stay healthy and consistent, 2010 could be the year he blooms into the superstar people are predicting.

Nolan Reimold, called up in 2009 to fill in for injury, took hold of left field and ran with it. A potential power threat, the rookie led the team in OBP in '09 and trailed only Luke Scott in SLG. He also led all rookies in HR with 15 despite not playing a full season at the Major League level. Reimold will need to avoid the sophomore slump and prove he can produce and stay healthy over a full season if he's going to be the long term answer in left field.

The odd man out, Felix Pie will be trying to repeat the success he found in the second half of 2009. It will be tough for manager Dave Trembley to find consistent at-bats for Pie if the other three outfielders are healthy and, in Reimold's case, productive, but hopefully he'll figure it out as Pie has a lot of promise. He's arguably the best defensive outfielder on the team, which is saying something considering the competition, but his bat is still suspect. 

The myth of Matt Wieters grew so much prior to his call up in May '09 that it became hard to keep a rational state of mind regarding the rookie catcher. He essentially broke the PECOTA projection system with the very idea of his awesomeness, Bill James pretty much inducted him into the Hall of Fame, and Keith Law's excitement was so great that he created his own Matt Wieters Fact. Even The Onion got in on the fun. Given all that it's understandable that some Orioles fans felt a little let down when he didn't immediately play like the love child of Joe Mauer and Superman. The truth is he had a very solid rookie campaign considering the rigors of being a catcher learning his pitchers and the opposing batters mid-season. He improved steadily over the course of the season and will in all likelihood will be one of the best catchers in baseball in 2010 even without having reached his peak. 

Rotation

Kevin Millwood, RHP
Jeremy Guthrie, RHP
Brad Bergesen, RHP
Brian Matusz, LHP
Chris Tillman, RHP

Last year, the Orioles' pitching was atrocious. They were last in the AL in hits, earned runs and homers allowed, and they had the pitcher with the most losses in league (17), Jeremy Guthrie (he also led the team in wins with 10). For the first half of the season, the O’s took a page out of Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer; Camden Yards was the island of misfit pitchers. They had Adam Eaton, Rich Hill, Alfredo Simon, and Mark Hendrickson who had a combined ERA of around 6. But this year’s rotation is a vast improvement over last year’s. The likely Opening Day starter will be former Ranger, Indian, Phillie and Brave, Kevin Millwood.  He will start Opening Day; however it’s unlikely he’ll be the staff’s ace. The Orioles got him primarily for three reasons. One - he’s an above average pitcher who’s shown that he can pitch really well (e.g., he pitched a no-hitter in 2003), not great but certainly not mediocre. Two - the team wanted a mentor for the young pitchers on the club, particularly the three who’ll most likely be in the rotation: Brad Bergesen (23), Chris Tillman (21) and Brian Matusz (22). Three - he is an innings-eating workhorse. The front office doesn’t want to have the bullpen to get overworked again and they expect Millwood to consistently go deep into games. 

Jeremy Guthrie, a Stanford kid and a former first-round draft pick is the biggest question mark for the pitching, even more so than the three sophomores following him in the rotation. In 2007 and 2008, Guthrie was the staff ace, putting up ERAs of 3.70 and 3.63. Then last year, something went terribly wrong. His ERA went up by over a run (5.04), he allowed more homers then games he started (35-33) and everything went downhill. The question this year is simple: which Guthrie will we see? 

Finally, the "Big Three": Brad Bergesen, Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman. Brad Bergesen recently got some unwelcome attention for getting injured during a commercial shot for MASN; however, if he keeps up the pace he had last year that won’t be the only exposure he gets. If you look on Baseball Reference, you’ll notice some familiar names for Brad Bergesen’s similarity score through age 23; notably Cy Young and John Lackey. Checking his stats, it doesn’t come off as far-fetched as some would think. His opponents slugging %, OPS, OBP were all lower than the league average. The main concern is he puts too many balls in play.  He allowed 9% more balls in play than the league average, and a 5% higher contact rate.  

The fourth starter, and perhaps the staff ace of the future, is Brian Matusz; he’s just got the look. His signature game of 2009 was his last of his season.  He went into Yankee Stadium and lasted 7 innings while giving up just one run on four hits and ending the performance with back-to-back strikeouts of Jorge Posada and Derek Jeter. He finished the season strong, winning his last three games, allowing six runs in 21 innings and notching 15 strike outs.  

Fifth in the rotation is Chris Tillman, the man with the most room for improvement of the big three, who had an ERA of 5.40 in 2009. His opponent’s batting average was almost .300. Tillman's biggest issue of 2010 was the long ball; he allowed 15 in just 65 innings pitched. Tillman will only be 21 on Opening Day and he should be able to improve greatly with a season under his belt.

Bullpen

Mike Gonzalez, LHP
Jim Johnson, RHP
Koji Uehara, RHP
Cla Meredith, RHP
Mark Hendrickson, LHP
Kameron Mickolio, RHP
Matt Albers, RHP

The Orioles also hope to improve the bullpen once again. Last year, if you were an Oriole fan you knew that no lead you had was insurmountable when your bullpen consisted of guys with ERA's between 4.00 and 7.00. To improve the bullpen, the Orioles got rid Danys Baez (now a Phillie) Dennis Sarfate (DFA’d and sent to AAA), Chris Ray, who had an ERA starting with 7 (Millwood trade) and Brian Bass (released). 

To fill the void left by the trade of closer George Sherrill to the Dodgers, GM Andy MacPhail brought in Mike Gonzalez, who set-up last year for the Braves. Gonzo has closing experience with both the Braves and Pirates, racking up 54 career saves over the last 5+ years. Jim Johnson will return to his role of set-up man after failing miserably to be Sherrill’s replacement at the end of the season. It’s possible last year’s Japanese import, Koji Uehara, could have a chance to gain a save or two as well. After having trouble staying in games for very long last year, the bullpen seems perfect for him. He always pitched well for the first five or so innings of the game, then his arm turned into one big wet noodle. Cla Meredith, obtained in a trade last year, was one of the best pitchers in the second half for the Birds. Another reliable pitcher out of the pen was former NBA-er Mark Hendrickson. Miserable in the rotation, he became excellent in the bullpen and re-signed with the O's in the offseason. The Orioles have yet another young pitcher in Kam Mickolio. He looks to be a future closer, though it’s a small sample size: 9.2 K/9 and no home runs in 13.2 innings. This will most likely be his first full season in the bigs, so we'll see if he can keep up his impressive stats for the duration. The last piece of the bullpen is the most suspect. Matt Albers, who missed the second half of 2008 rehabbing a torn labrum, had an atrocious 2009. Prior to his shoulder injury, Albers was very reliable in the pen. The Orioles have to be hoping that the farther removed he is from his injury the more he'll resemble the Albers of old.

Over the past few years the Orioles bullpen has fallen into a pattern of starting off well before imploding in the second half. One key to improving the bullpen is improving the rotation, which pitched less innings than any other starting rotation in baseball last year. The addition of Millwood and the maturation of the young pitchers will hopefully lead to more innings pitched and therefore a less overworked bullpen.

In The System

Jake Arrieta, RHP – Arrieta had an up-and-down 2009 season.  Dominant in AA Bowie, he was promoted to AAA Norfolk where he had his worst numbers of his professional career. In AAA, Arrieta was particularly prone to giving up a big inning, most often in the fourth inning or later. Despite his struggles at Norfolk, Arrieta showed good improvement in his control, walking batters in only 8.2% of their plate appearances, the best ratio of his career and a 1.2% improvement over his numbers in Bowie.  His GB% remained relatively constant at 41%, and his HR/FB ratio remained at 5% where it has been his entire minor league career.  There are two major deviations from his career numbers in Norfolk – his BABIP, which ballooned to .333 after being below .290 his entire minor league career, and his K/PA, which fell to 19.5% after being above 25% his entire minor league career.  In short, Arrieta put more balls in play than he ever had before while in Norfolk, and the defense behind him gave up more hits than should be expected on those balls in play.

There is cause for a lot of optimism about Arrieta’s possible 2010 debut.  A refinement of his mechanics and improvement with his fastball location would cement the improvements in his secondary pitches and overall control that brought his walk rate below 10% for all of 2009 for the first time in his career.  Arrieta doesn’t have too far to go before he is ready to be an impact arm at the Major League level.

Brandon Snyder, 1b/3b – In 2009, Snyder had a year much like that of Arrieta – he dominated in the first half with Bowie, but struggled in the second half with Norfolk.  In Snyder’s case, the difference was even more pronounced – he had an OPS of 1.018 in AA and a mere .671 in AAA.  This dropoff in performance coupled with the doubts about Snyder that have persisted since his first injury-plagued seasons leave many questioning whether Snyder’s breakout in Bowie was real and whether he has the potential to be the Orioles’ starting first baseman going forward. 

Like with Arrieta, there are reasons to remain optimistic about Snyder, but the case isn’t as clear cut.  Snyder was sent to the Arizona Fall League after the season, where he was dominant for the league champion Desert Dogs, with an OPS of 1.056 that was fifth-best in the AFL among players who had two or more plate appearances per game.  While the AFL is notorious as a hitter’s league, the fact is that Snyder outperformed many of the game’s top first base prospects there, including Yonder Alonso, Ike Davis, Josh Vitters, Mike Moustakas, and Dustin Ackley. If he builds on his strong AFL performance with a strong start to the year in AAA, all it will take to see Snyder at Camden Yards is an injury or continuation of last year’s struggles by Garrett Atkins.

Troy Patton, LHP – Once the top prospect of the Houston Astros, Patton has been largely forgotten by prospect watchers.  Patton came to the Orioles as the centerpiece of the Miguel Tejada trade before the 2008 season, was promptly diagnosed with a torn labrum, and missed the season.  Patton came back last year, beginning with Bowie where he was pretty dominant in the first half, posting an ERA of 1.99 with a FIP of 3.53.  While those numbers spoke well of his recovery from surgery, they are less impressive than they seem, seeing as it was Patton’s third stint in AA.  But then, possibly due to pressure to fit in with his fellow prospects, Patton struggled in the second half after a promotion to Norfolk, with an ERA of 6.45 and a FIP of 6.80 in nine starts.  

As a flyball pitcher, Patton has a lot of work to do on limiting home runs before Orioles fans can hope that he will fulfill his early promise that had him among Baseball America’s top 100 prospects for three seasons.  And there is reason to fear that even a slight decrease in his already marginal stuff may prevent him from ever being an effective pitcher at the Major League level.  But considering how his struggles in Norfolk in the second half of 2009 were so strongly focused in a single area, there is still a lot of reason to hope that Patton may yet be a quality starter in the back end of Baltimore’s rotation.  If Patton is healthy and shows he has recovered his ability to limit home runs in 2010, I’d expect him to be in line for a couple starts in September, but unlike Arrieta, he probably won’t be someone who gets the call if a spot starter is needed due to injury.  With more heralded arms like Zack Britton on the way and two full seasons gone since his Major League debut, Patton needs to have a strong 2010 to have much of a future in the organization.

Josh Bell, 3b – Bell exploded onto the prospect scene in 2009, and his tremendous season, split between the Baysox and the Chattanooga Lookouts, made him the Orioles’ top position prospect after his arrival in the midseason trade of closer George Sherrill.  

The big knock on Bell so far has been his platoon split, which is huge for a switch-hitter.  In 2009, Bell hit .340 against right-handers but only .198 against southpaws, and his OPS against lefties was .497 lower than against right-handers.  With only 131 at-bats against lefties, some of this is possibly distorted by sample size, but comments by Baysox manager Brad Komminsk that questioned Bell’s work ethic regarding hitting left-handers combined with the stats is a cause for serious concern.  Bell showed improved results against left-handers in a strong AFL performance, but he will need to show improvement over a larger sample to quell doubts.  But far worse things could happen than Bell turning into an excellent Major League hitter who needs to be platooned against tough lefties.  Despite some discussion about whether he should stop switch-hitting, the decision for now seems to be that he will continue, and the O’s will hope to add another strong switch-hitter to the lineup along with Brian Roberts and Matt Wieters. 

Bell’s chances at seeing Major League time took a big hit this offseason when Miguel Tejada was signed.  The Orioles are not paying Tejada $6 million to sit on the bench come midseason, and team officials have been adamant that Tejada is expected to start at third for the entire season.  It seems that the decision has been made that no matter how Bell does, he is going to be in Norfolk until September.  But unless Bell struggles terribly, count on seeing him get a lot of playing time down the stretch, as the Orioles will need to evaluate his readiness with Tejada on a one-year deal.

Luis Lebron, RHP – Signed as a free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 2004, Lebron was always an electric arm, with a fastball in the mid to high 90s.  But he also had a reputation as someone who couldn’t control his stuff.  He gave up 55 walks in as many innings in 2007 with Delmarva, and in an injury-shortened 2008 where he pitched solely in the Gulf Coast League and short-season Aberdeen, he gave up 27 walks in 19 2/3 innings. But in 2009, Lebron found his control, bringing his BB/9 to a manageable 4.84, which paired with a 13.09 K/9 will turn quite a few heads.   

Now 25, Lebron has been added to the 40 man roster, and should likely see some time in the Major League bullpen by midseason.  The key to keep an eye on will be his walk rate; if he cements the control improvements he showed in 2009, he will likely be a key piece of our future bullpen, and a much needed success for our international scouting department.

Brandon Erbe, RHP – Selected by the Orioles in the third round of the 2005 draft out of McDonogh High, Erbe is the most prominent local product in the Orioles’ system.  Erbe’s calling card is his mid-90s fastball, which tops out at 98, and some still think that his skinny 6’4" frame still has some projection.  He compliments his four seamer with a cutter, a slider and a change.  His change lags behind his other offerings, and it shows in his splits – he held right handed batters to a .133 average and had a WHIP against them of 0.82 in Bowie. 

A major cause for concern for Erbe is regression in his control.  After cutting his BB/9 to 3.0 in 2008 in his second pass at Frederick, Erbe saw a huge regression in his control at Bowie, with his BB/9 ballooning to 4.3.  The key for Erbe in 2010 will once again be harnessing his electric stuff and limiting his walks.  If he does, Erbe could see time with the Orioles in September.

Wilfrido Perez, LHP – A free agent from the Dominican Republic, Perez is a slightly built lefty relief arm who has achieved stellar results in five seasons in the Orioles organization, never posting an ERA above 3.30 and posting ERAs below three in his three seasons in full season ball.  With a fastball sitting from 88-92, a plus curveball and a decent change, the Orioles tried to use Perez as a starter initially, but moved him to the bullpen on a permanent basis when Perez reached the Sally League one season removed from Tommy John surgery in 2006.  

The Orioles are quite high on Perez, and he is likely to see time in the big league bullpen this season.  He probably won’t win a spot in Spring Training, but he will compete with Alberto Castillo to be the next lefty up after Will Ohlman.  That the club believes he will be a contributor is made clear by his continued presence on the 40-man roster, despite the fact that several other lefties also hold roster spots. 

The key for Perez’s 2010 will be to remain healthy.  Perez would have seen time in the majors last year if not for July surgery to remove bone chips from his throwing elbow that ended his season.  This is Perez’s second major surgery to his throwing arm, and if he fails to recover, his time with the Orioles may quickly come to a close.  But good health will get Perez to the majors in 2010, even if he may not have the talent to last there.

Conclusion

The Orioles' success in 2010 lies almost solely in the pitching. With three 2nd year pitchers in their rotation it's just as likely that they'll fall flat on their faces as it is that they'll rise to their potential. If Brian Matusz and Brad Bergesen pick up where they left off in 2009 and Chris Tillman can harness his talent, the American League will be in for a surprise. If they struggle, the Orioles will continue to flounder. 

Las Vegas has given the Baltimore Orioles 100:1 odds of winning the World Series, which actually seems generous. They are improved and have a lot to look forward to but are still quite a ways behind the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays. When the three best teams in baseball play in the same division as you, it's a difficult and daunting task to compete, but the Orioles, led by Andy MacPhail, are assembling the pieces they need to make a run soon. Just not in 2010.