Matt Gardner, editor of And Down The Stretch They Come, puts his expertise to the test by putting his own odds down on the Kentucky Derby now that the draw is done.
Right now, if the morning line odds were to stay the same up to post time, there are four potential overlays based on my handicapping: Ice Box, Super Saver, Dublin, and Awesome Act. Ice Box and Dublin are right about where I have them on my line, but Super Saver and Awesome Act might be available at a much better price than I have (especially Ice Box).
Conversely, both Lookin At Lucky and Sidney’s Candy are underlays, based on how I’m viewing the race, especially Sidney’s Candy, a colt I’ve never been a big fan of. He’s a nice colt with a shot at winning, but I don’t think he offers any value at 5/1.
Of course, in the end, it doesn’t matter where I set my odds, or where the track sets its odds. It only matters where you set yours. Based on today’s draw and morning line odds, where to you plan to find value in the Kentucky Derby?
Head to And Down The Stretch They Come for full coverage of the Derby, and all three Triple Crown races from Matt.