Laying Chalk And Taking Dogs: Strikeforce: Heavy Artillery & Shine Fights III: Worlds Collide

Last installment I went ahead and told you to bet on Shogun over Machida, Mitrione over Slice, Koscheck over Daley and Stout over Stephens.  Even being wrong on that last one I still should have made you money.  I will happily take credit for that little boost to your bankroll, just don't come looking for me if I give you some bad advice this time out.

Strikeforce: Heavy Artillery

Andrei Arlovski vs. Antonio "Bigfoot" Silva

I'm going to skip right past the Strikeforce main event of Alistair Overeem against Brett Rogers because I just don't think there is a "smart play" to be made there.

The big trend in people talking about this fight is mentioning that Arlovski has a bad chin.  Fortunately for Andrei I just don't see Silva ever being able to close distance and get close enough to land punches.  Silva is slow and he has very plodding movement that will cause some problems with him getting close to the very agile Arlovski.

I think Andrei uses his superior footwork and speed to wear Silva out before stopping him in the second round.

You can currently get Arlovski at odds as good as -175.  I like him at anything -200 or better.

Lyle Beerbohm vs. Vitor "Shaolin" Ribeiro

This fight may not make the broadcast, which is a shame since it's a really great fight.  Beerbohm is undefeated, Ribeiro has only three career losses and they're to top end guys like Kawajiri, Aoki and Calvancante.  Ribeiro has really tremendous grappling and grappling credentials and You'd have to like his chances if the fight should end up on the ground.  In the stand-up Beerbohm has much better striking as it's an area that Shaolin has not made a ton of progress.

Beerbohm should be the one who decides where the fight takes place and if he does decide to keep the fight standing he should be able to spend three rounds picking apart Ribeiro en route to a unanimous decision.

Given that Lyle is a slight underdog at +130 on most sites I think there is a lot of value to a play on him.

Antwain Britt vs. Rafael "Feijao" Cavalcante

Britt is currently the underdog at anywhere from +110 to +150 with Cavalcante at -140 to -200.

I'm not a huge believer in the gas tank of Antwain Britt and while he does possess some good power early in a fight I think that threat fades significantly as the fight goes on.  Cavalcante should be able to weather the early storm and take over in rounds 2 and 3, probably even getting a stoppage in the second half of the fight.

Make a play on "Feijao" at the best lines you can get him at, but don't go above -200.

Shine Fights III: Worlds Collide

Ricardo Mayorga vs. Din Thomas

This is a fight that I wouldn't suggest gambling on, but I wanted to talk about it a little bit just for those of you who are more daring than I.

Mayorga is a pretty significant underdog at odds up to +475 and the reasons are more than a little understandable.  It's his first MMA bout, he's facing a very skilled and versatile MMA veteran in Din Thomas.  Thomas has made it very clear that he has absolutely no intention of standing up with the former welterweight boxing champion which is smart.

Still, Mayorga is a very hard puncher and it will only take landing one power punch to the chin of Thomas to end the night.  If he can land that punch is the real question. I don't see it as being significantly likely but he's not going to be afraid to throw his hands and try to end the night.

If you feel incredibly risky and want to make a play on the fight I'll go ahead and recommend Mayorga at anything over +450 on the hopes that he can land a bomb early in the fight.  If he starts getting leg kicked or taken down, it's all over.  I just think there is more value in playing the big dog here than there is in taking close to -700 odds on Thomas.