Five Numbers: Recognizing The Success Of Brett Gardner, The More Sudden Success Of David Ortiz, And More

Who needs an introduction? I need no introduction.

1)      4.7

All in all, Yankees fans have it pretty good. They tend to have high expectations of their roster, and those expectations tend to be met. The Yankees routinely feature some of the best talent in the world, and they've ridden that talent into the playoffs in 14 of the last 15 seasons.

And so it's understandable that fans of the team don't really know how to react to question marks. They're not used to seeing a roster with many unknowns, so when there are unknowns, they become hot topics of conversation. What's this guy all about? Can he play? Can he play well enough to be a True Yankee?

Perhaps the biggest question mark coming into 2010 was Brett Gardner. Yankee fans had grown accustomed to productive veterans like Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui - veterans who'd proven their worth on the biggest stage - and so handing a starting outfield job to an untested 26 year old made a lot of people uncomfortable. Brett Gardner was a virtual unknown. A backup with a .256 average and three home runs over 425 big league trips to the plate between 2008-2009.  What were the Yankees doing? Did they really believe in a player like this?

The Yankees did, and if their fans were initially skeptical, by now they believe in Gardner, too. Gardner's been solid across the board. He hasn't hit for a lot of power, but as a speedy groundballer, he isn't supposed to hit for a lot of power. What he's supposed to do is draw walks, make contact, play defense, and run like crazy, and Gardner's done each of them while barely breaking a sweat.

Gardner, to date, has the fifth-best contact rate in baseball, at 93.9%. He's drawn 17 walks. Advanced metrics paint him as a spectacular defensive outfielder. And perhaps most impressively, according to a baserunning statistic housed at Baseball Prospectus, Gardner has been the best baserunner in the league so far, at 4.7 runs above average. A full run ahead of Michael Bourn, in second, and 1.7 runs ahead of Elvis Andrus in third.

It's no fluke. Gardner came in at +4.9 runs a year ago in limited time, leading the Yankees, and came in at +2.6 - second on the team - in even more limited time the year before. Brett Gardner knows how to run the bases, and he makes a significant contribution in doing so.

It's not just the steals, either. Yeah, Gardner's succeeded on 17 of 19 attempts in 2010, and 56 of 64 attempts in his career. That's phenomenal. But it's also his ability to take the extra base. To advance on fly balls, and to take two bases on singles. The Yankees have a lot of thump in their order, and they rank first in OPS, but Gardner plays an older style that gives the team a big boost from the top of the lineup. With his ability to wear pitchers out, get on base, and make the most of his presence on the basepaths, Gardner's just another guy in that lineup who can hurt you.

Is Brett Gardner going to keep hitting .326? No, that isn't likely. His batting average on balls in play is a well above-average .368, against a career mark of .323. He's going to come down a little bit. But even if and when that happens, he does so many different things well that he's going to remain a standout young outfielder on a team full of stars. The Yankees put their trust in Gardner. A lot of people were skeptical. Gardner, though, has only proven his employers right, and now everyone gets to take pleasure in the payoff.

2)       .774

The Red Sox are 21-20. More importantly, they're 4.5 back of the Yankees, and 8.5 back of the Rays. The Red Sox are in a tough position. Have been for several weeks. And when the Red Sox are in a tough position, fingers get pointed.

As the team struggled through a mediocre April, a lot of the fingers were pointing at David Ortiz. To be sure, he was far from the only problem. The pitching staff had allowed 5.2 runs per game. Josh Beckett looked terrible. J.D. Drew was hitting .197. The Red Sox had their problems. But standing head and shoulders above - or perhaps sitting head and shoulders below - was David Ortiz and his .143/.238/.286 batting line. Ortiz ended April with one home run. He was killing the team from the heart of the order. This looked like the end, they said, and many began to whisper about the possibility of cutting Big Papi and letting him walk.

Then the calendar turned, and in a flash, David Ortiz caught fire. He hit a pair of home runs against the Orioles on May 1^st. He hit another May 5^th. He hit two more May 15^th. And so on and so forth. Through 58 trips to the plate in the month of May, David Ortiz has gone deep seven times, hit .358, and slugged .774. He's pulled his season numbers back to a more normal level of performance, and while the Sox continue to sit in fourth place, fewer and fewer people seem willing to blame the DH.

This isn't exactly anything new. In 2008, Ortiz posted an OPS of .644 in April and .953 the rest of the way. In 2009, he sat at .596 as late as June 7^th before catching fire in the second half. This is the third consecutive season that Ortiz has raised questions with a slow start, only to provide convincing answers later on. It's perfectly fair to question the ability of a 34 year old slugging DH, and Ortiz has clearly lost quite a bit from his peak, but perhaps more than anyone else, Ortiz reminds us all of the dangers of reading too much into a small sample of data.

David Ortiz is likely nearing the end. At some point, he will fall off the map, and his critics will be right. This most recent cannonade of his, however, goes to show that he isn't there yet, and that fans might want to direct their blame elsewhere. The Sox have a lot of problems. David Ortiz isn't one of them.

3)      29%

 I don't need to lay out the Milton Bradley/Carlos Silva trade for you. It is what it is. Mariner fans were thrilled to be rid of an expensive, underperforming malcontent. Cub fans were thrilled to be rid of an expensive, underperforming malcontent. Outside observers marveled at the two teams' ability and willingness to exchange expensive, underperforming malcontents. It was a classic change-of-scenery deal, where each team hoped that the other team's trash would turn into their treasure, or at least something that isn't trash.

Bradley, so far, has been hit and miss. He has delivered a few big knocks that have helped the Mariners win a few ballgames. However, he's also melted down, left the stadium in the middle of a game, and missed two weeks while undergoing personal counseling.  Milton Bradley has packed the whole Milton Bradley experience into a month and a half, and while many remain happy to have him in Seattle, it's safe to say things haven't gone great.

Silva, meanwhile, has experienced something of a career resurgence in Chicago. A guy who at one point looked like he might not even stick on the roster has instead pitched like the ace of the staff, allowing 20 runs over eight starts while posting a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3:1. Seattle fans have observed his success and written it off as a fluke or a product of pitching in the National League, but Cub fans, to be sure, see Silva as one of the lone bright spots in an otherwise difficult season.

Silva's secret? He's done a few things right. For one thing, he's throwing a lot more strikes - 68% strikes, to be precise, compared to 63% with the M's. But perhaps more significantly, he's abandoned his familiar fastball-heavy approach and moved to more of a mix. Just 57% of his pitches so far have been fastballs. He's mixed them up with 14% sliders and 29% changeups.

That 29% figure is by far the highest of Silva's career, and the second-highest in baseball, behind Rich Harden's 37%. And it makes sense, because despite all the fastballs, Silva's changeup has long been a decent pitch. It's able to induce far more swinging strikes than his fastball, and it's the only weapon of his he can use well against left-handed batters. It's no coincidence that he's held lefties to a .212 average so far. They aren't seeing as many of the fastballs that they're used to, and as a result, they're having a tougher time.

It's hard to say that Silva's going to keep ups his current level of success. To date, he's been very, very good, and his strikeout rate is by far the best it's ever been. Based simply on his track record, we'd expect a fairly heavy regression. But on the other hand, Silva hasn't pitched in the NL since 2003, and he hasn't ever been there as a starter, so perhaps he's just a way better match for the senior circuit. It's worth noting that his career OPS against is .803, but just .732 in interleague play.

Carlos Silva may not keep this up. Carlos Silva may regress rather heavily. Given the player the Cubs dealt to get him, though, Chicago's gotta be thrilled. They've already gotten more than they ever could've expected.

4)      1.78

Many moons ago, I declared the race in the NL Central to be over. On May 4^th, the Cardinals held a division lead of five games. I predicted them to be the easy winner before the year, and the early disparity did nothing to make me re-evaluate my position. It seemed then that, sure enough, the entire regular season would, for St. Louis, be nothing but a cakewalk.

Since that day, the Cardinals have gone 5-9 while the Cincinnati Reds have gone 10-3. Result? It's Reds who now sit in first place by half a game after spending the offseason getting talked about as a possible sleeper. It's the Reds who're giving everyone hope that the NL Central may see a race yet, and it's the Reds who've gotten here on the back of a potent lineup and some big-time pitching.

I'm here to throw water on the flames. The Reds, certainly, have pulled off an admirable run. With series against Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Houston coming up, there's little reason to believe the run'll stop now. But theirs is a roster that simply doesn't match up to that of the Cardinals, and even now, you have to think St. Louis remains the heavy favorite.

As of this writing, the Cardinals rank second in the NL in team ERA, at 2.87. The Reds, meanwhile, rank 13^th, at 4.65. That's a difference of 1.78. While Johnny Cueto has been terrific and Mike Leake has given the rotation a considerable shot in the arm, they just can't match up to the Cardinals' impressive foursome of Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Jaime Garcia, and Brad Penny. Each of those arms has pitched like an ace, with groundballs and either strikeouts, command, or both. No rotation has pitched better than St. Louis' has through the first month and a half.

And while the Reds have featured a potent offense and a few good relievers, neither their lineup nor their bullpen (nor their defense) has performed better than their Cardinal equivalent. Joey Votto, Scott Rolen, Jay Bruce, and Jonny Gomes have powered the offense, but that's not a better foursome than Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Colby Rasmus, and Ryan Ludwick. Everything the Reds can do, the Cardinals can do at least a little better, and it's for that reason that, even given the current situation, the Cards have to be feeling pretty good about their chances.

Don't get me wrong - this division race isn't over. The Reds are a talented team, and they'll give the Cards a run for their money. The difference in run prevention is not as great as that 1.78 figure would lead one to believe, as the Cardinals have had some good luck and the Reds have had some bad. Still, all the Reds have done is shortened the year. The Cardinals are still better. They just have less time to prove it, and that's the thing that's really working in Cincinnati's favor.

5)      92.8%

Think catcher durability, and a few names might come to mind. Yadier Molina. Ivan Rodriguez, definitely. Russell Martin. Maybe Kurt Suzuki. Being a starting catcher doesn't mean playing 160 games like it does for guys at other positions, but there are still a handful of backstops who manage to play the field with remarkable frequency, given the hazards and strains of crouching for four hours a day.

So if I asked you which catcher has caught the greatest percentage of his team's innings so far this season, you'd probably guess one of those names above. They're the logical picks. And you know what? You'd be wrong. Because the leader, as of this writing, is Kansas City's Jason Kendall, who has caught 346.1 of 373.1 innings, or 92.8%.

This is not an incredibly important statistic. The Royals are terrible and beyond irrelevant as far as 2010 is concerned. This is more of a shout out to Will McDonald, who's had to suffer through this, and all of the other miserable Royal seasons the world has seen in recent years. The reason I'm including Kendall's inning% is: Jason Kendall sucks. He's 35 years old. He hasn't been a good hitter since 2004. He doesn't have a good arm. He's not great at blocking the ball. Jason Kendall is neither a good catcher, not a player to build around, and he's employed by a team sitting in the cellar of the AL Central, a full 8.5 games back of the far superior Minnesota Twins.

So why is Kendall catching so many innings? It doesn't matter that backup Brayan Pena may not be very good. Brayan Pena is 28 years old. There's at least some glimmer of hope that he may be able to contribute down the road. A glimmer of hope that doesn't exist for Kendall. So why has Pena only started two games? I get that the Royals gave Kendall a two-year contract, and I get that pitchers may like working with him, but this is just silliness. There is nothing to gain by playing Jason Kendall at every opportunity. There may not be much to gain by starting Pena, but at least there's the hope that there is.

Making matters worse is that the Royals  declined the 2010 option on catcher Miguel Olivo, who's been good, and non-tendered catcher John Buck, who's been good. Olivo and Buck, like Pena, weren't great, but they represented far more desirable options than Jason Kendall, whose veteran leadership has guided his pitching staff to the second-worst ERA and the highest walk total in the American League.

There are a lot of things about the Royals that don't make sense. Jason Kendall is one of them. And given that Kendall was Ned Yost's regular backstop in 2008, don't look for things to change any time soon.