Well, if you're an NBA fan and want an interesting subplot for this summer of free agency fun in a form that doesn't involve Chris Bosh, Dirk Nowitzki might provide it by opting out of his contract and becoming an unrestricted free agent. ESPN's Marc Stein has the details.
⇥The Dallas Mavericks are expecting star forward Dirk Nowitzki to opt out of his contract late next month and become an unrestricted free agent July 1, according to sources close to the situation.⇥⇥⇥⇥⇥The Mavericks, though, continue to negotiate with Nowitzki on a contract extension in hopes of convincing him to pre-empt his free agency. They remain confident that the leading scorer in franchise history is staying with the only team with which he's ever played, even if Nowitzki winds up joining the most anticipated free-agent class in league history.⇥⇥⇥⇥
⇥⇥The sides have until the end of June to reach terms on an extension that would keep Nowitzki off the open market, but sources told ESPN.com this week that it's more likely -- with free agency less than 40 days away -- that the nine-time All-Star becomes an unrestricted free agent for the first time in his career.⇥⇥⇥⇥
It's a pretty good bet that Dirk will stay in Dallas, where is he beloved, where he has been for almost ten years, where his owner tethered a franchise to him, and where he won the only NBA MVP ever given to a European-born player. But if Nowitzki feels like he's topped out—since the Mavericks' Finals collapse in 2006, Dallas has made the second round of the playoffs just once—then conventional wisdom says he would probably take the fourth slot behind LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh in the free agent derby.
What teams might land Dirk, though, is a little murkier. He would be an intriguing co-star with LeBron in Cleveland, a nice fit for Mike D'Antoni's offense-heavy scheme in New York, or an interesting piece for a team like the Bulls or Heat. (Bill Simmons floats a reunion with Steve Nash as a possibility.) But he's also turning 32 in June, and averaged under eight rebounds a game for the first time since the 1999-00 season; those numbers might dissuade teams from giving Nowitzki the maximum deal he probably wants, despite posting a career high in three-point percentage last season and playing brilliantly (26.8 points per game on 54.7% shooting and 57.1% shooting from beyond the arc) in the Mavs' first-round loss.
There's also the possibility that Nowitzki is just opting out to get a better deal in Dallas, nothing more. A new deal signed this summer would get Nowitzki's terms in ink before a new collective bargaining agreement comes into effect, and might enable him to get a no-trade clause.
If nothing else, Nowitzki is now a moving piece on the fluid chessboard that is this summer. The Mavericks should still have the inside track on keeping him, and Dirk will probably stay in Big D. Still, this adds a bit more chaos in confusion to a scene that wasn't even threatening to be sane.
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