Stephen Strasburg Is Coming, Eventually

If you're like me, talk about things like 'the first place Rays' or 'the surprising San Diego Padres' or 'your blood pressure is perilously high' only gets in the way of hearing about Stephen Strasburg. The' world's best pitcher - nay, the world's best anything - is approaching his arrival date, and, like many, I am deeply interested in when that day will finally come. So you can imagine my displeasure upon reading Jon Heyman's Twitter this morning:

not sure where june 4 rumor started. but mid june better guess for strasburg considering 100 big-league IP target.

All along, June 4th just felt right, so it's troubling to see a name like Heyman suggest something else. Is Strasburg really still weeks away? Is Heyman on to something here?

Heyman, in his Tweet, is referring to the following, from Peter Gammons in April:

When Mike Rizzo and Scott Boras finished the Strasburg deal in August, they agreed he'd be limited to around 100 IP in 2010

However, while Gammons is a very good source, one must then consider this from Ben Goessling, posted two hours later:

Just talked to #Nats farm director Doug Harris. He said the idea of Strasburg being capped at 100 innings this year "doesn't hold water."
...
Harris said he'd like Strasburg to throw between 150 and 160 innings this year.

The key here might be Heyman's inclusion of "big-league" in his Tweet. I'm not sure where that comes from, but it's possible that the Nationals have two Strasburg caps - one for total innings, and one for innings in the big leagues. Major League innings are more taxing, on account of the higher stress level and the competition being more fierce, so it would make sense to set two limits.

But I'm just speculating. I don't know what the Nationals are going to do. And, gun to my head, I think June 4th still makes the most sense. The Nationals, believe it or not, are still kind of competing, and Strasburg could give them a huge boost. Better to give it your best shot and deal with a possible problem in September than hold off and wonder what could've been. Let's say, for the moment, that Heyman's got the innings limit right. Figure that 100 innings, as a hard ceiling, gives Strasburg 15-18 starts. That's a lot of time to see how the season's going. If Strasburg approaches 100 innings and the Nats are still in it, then they have a good problem on their hands. And if Strasburg approaches 100 innings and the Nats are out of it, then they can shut him down or move him to the occasional bullpen appearance. No biggie.

Ultimately, whether Strasburg has a big league innings cap or not, he's already thrown 45.1 in the minors, with another start coming on Saturday. Figure he'll throw 5 or 6 or so. That'll leave him with another 100-110 innings before he hits Harris' max. You think the Nationals would rather he throw more of those in Syracuse, or all of them in Washington?