SB Nation Tennis Wimbledon 2010
As the biggest tennis tournament of the year gets underway at the All England Club, Ben Rothenberg of SB Nation's tennis blog, The Daily Forehand, breaks down the five men and five women with the best shots at Wimbledon glory.
Jun 21, 2010 - As it has been for the last several years, rankings seem to be far more predictive of success on the men’s side than on the women’s. Over the last eight grand slams, the average seeding of a men’s finalist has been 4.1. On the women’s side, the average seeding of a grand slam finalist has been 8.6 (and that’s after generously calculating the two unseeded finalists as No. 33 seeds).
But the script may flip for Wimbledon this year. There are question marks surrounding everyone at the very top of the men’s game right now, and it’s tough to see either of the top two seeds on the women’s side losing before the final.
With that in mind, here is a look at the 10 players (five men, five women) who have the best chances to be crowned champions at the end of the Wimbledon fortnight.
Gentlemen's Singles: Five Players To Watch
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Roger Federer (Ranked No. 2, Seeded No. 1) – Defending champion Roger Federer is going for what would be a record-tying seventh Wimbledon title, having already won the tournament an incredible six times in the last seven years. He’s 47-1 at the tournament in those seven years, his lone loss coming in the 2008 final to Rafael Nadal.
But despite his unparalleled grass court pedigree, there are plenty of reasons why Federer may not win this tournament. Ever since winning the Australian Open in January, he’s had an entirely mediocre 2010. He only made the final of one of the four Masters he’s played so far this year, and that final ended with an embarrassing whiff on match point.
His fortunes have only gotten worse since that whiff. Federer made it to the quarterfinals of the French Open, but was drubbed out of the draw by the concussive power of Robin Soderling, a player against whom he previously had a 13-0 record. The loss broke Federer’s streak of twenty-three consecutive grand slam semifinal appearances, a mind-boggling record that will likely stand for at least the rest of his life.
Federer then lost in the finals of the grass-court warmup tournament in Halle, losing in the final to Lleyton Hewitt, whom Federer had bested in each of their previous fifteen matches.
It’s a disturbing trend for Federer. He’s losing on occasions where he didn’t used to lose, to players to whom he never used to lose.
As damaging as these recent losses may seem, no loss could shake him more than an early defeat at Wimbledon. His section of the draw looks clear of any real trouble, save for a possibly tricky fourth round match against No. 22 seed Feliciano Lopez, who snapped Nadal’s 24-match win streak in London a week ago.
If he clears those hurdles, a potential quarterfinal against No. 2 Tomas Berdych looms, followed by the prospect of meeting No. 5 Andy Roddick or No. 15 Lleyton Hewitt in the top half semifinal. If Federer is going to make history with a seventh Wimbledon crown, he’s going to have to work for it.
It’s nearly impossible to argue that Federer isn’t past his peak. The only thing left to debate is how steep the down slope on the other side will prove to be.
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Rafael Nadal (Ranked No. 1, Seeded No. 2) – In some respects, Wimbledon has two defending champions in the draw. Rafael Nadal's knee tendinitis prevented him from entering Wimbledon in 2009 to defend his 2008 championship, and eventually caused him to lose the No. 1 ranking as well. The same injury also cut short his Australian Open this year, and threatened to put a premature end to his entire career.
But Nadal pared back his schedule and has managed to stay healthy for the last several months. His clay court campaign was perhaps the best in the history of the sport, becoming the first player to sweep the three Masters events on clay and finishing with a French Open title that he earned without so much as facing a set point along the way.
Each of the last two years, the French Open Men’s Singles champion also went on to win at Wimbledon. Federer pulled off the double in 2009, and Rafael Nadal did it in 2008. The last player to win the two tournaments in the same year before Nadal was Bjorn Borg back in 1980, so Nadal’s possible momentum from winning the French this year shouldn’t be given too much importance.
What is important? Nadal has made the finals at Wimbledon in his last three appearances at the tournament (2006, 2007, 2008). He finally won the tournament in his third appearance in the final, beating Federer 6-4, 6-4, 6-7(5), 6-7(8), 9-7 in a match so epic that inspired an entire book. Nadal boasts a none-too-shabby career record of 35-2 at grand slam tournaments he's previously won, a category which Wimbledon now fits into.
Those impressive statistics aside, Nadal's presence in what would be a fourth consecutive Wimbledon final is not a given. He lost in straight sets in his only grass court warmup tournament for this Wimbledon, falling in the quarterfinals of the AEGON Championships at London's Queen's Club to No. 31 Feliciano Lopez. Even more ominously, Nadal was treated for pain in his knee during the loss.
If Nadal doesn't arrive to Wimbledon both healthy and ready, he could be in deep trouble early. His extremely tricky draw could have him facing James Blake, No. 27 Ernests Gulbis and No. 23 John Isner all before a potentially nightmarish quarterfinal against No. 6 Robin Soderling.
Nadal will certainly not go down without a fight, but he could still very well go down.
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Andy Murray (Ranked No. 4, Seeded No. 4) – Andy Murray has entered the Wimbledon Gentlemen’s Singles draw four times in his young career, each time making it one round further than he had the previous year. If the pattern holds, his fifth Wimbledon campaign in 2010 would see him best his 2009 semifinal appearance (losing in four sets to Roddick) by making it to the final.
But that seems a lot to ask of Murray, who will almost certainly be the only Briton left in either draw by Day 5 or so (depending on Elena Baltacha’s fortunes). Murray seems to handle the pressure well, and plays to the crowd with his ridiculously un-Wimbledonishly flexing displays after victories.
In the same way that French players rarely enjoy the slow clay at their home slam, Murray is similarly hindered by the grass of Wimbledon. The quick, slick surface doesn’t give Murray the time he needs to employ his counterpunching style, not allowing for the lengthy rallies and changes in pace at which he excels. His steady improvement each year on the grass shows his ability to fight through that disadvantage, but his loss to No. 90 Mardy Fish earlier this month at Queen’s Club shows that he’s also capable of losing to just about anyone.
Murray’s quarter of the draw is probably the easiest of any of them, but it still contains several potential threats in the way of No. 8 Fernando Verdasco, No. 10 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and No. 18 Sam Querrey. If Murray does make it out of the quarter, he’ll then likely have his hands full with either No. 2 Rafael Nadal or No. 6 Robin Soderling in the semifinal.
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Andy Roddick (Ranked No. 7, Seeded No. 5) -- Returning to the site of his heartbreak a year ago, Andy Roddick enters Wimbledon as a far more popular and respected player than he has ever been.
His heart-wrenching loss in the 2009 Wimbledon final to Federer by the excruciating score of 4-6, 7-6, 7-6, 3-6, 16-14, won him legions of fans and the respect of many in the tennis world who had previously seen him as little more than a temperamental brat with a big serve.
Not that his serving wasn’t phenomenal in that match. Roddick held serve 38 times before finally being broken in his 39th service game. But he won his service games not just by serving bombs (his ace total of 27 was dwarfed by Federer’s 50), but by employing a complete all-court game that he had forced himself to develop under new coach Larry Stefanki.
The 2009 loss was Roddick’s third loss in a final, having fallen to Federer in each of the previous two as well. But his success on the way to those finals has to make him believe he can beat anyone on grass, even Federer, given the defending champion’s recent struggles.
And for the first time, he’ll go into Wimbledon as a heavy crowd favorite, probably second only to Andy Murray (and theoretically Scotland’s Jamie Baker as well, if Baker manages to win a match or two).
All the intangibles are there for Roddick. The only question remaining (albeit a big one) is his form. Roddick lost in straight sets to Dudi Sela early in his grass court preparations, after a fairly lackluster clay court season compared to his 2009 run on the dirt. The urgency of Wimbledon should reignite his game upon arrival, but if he doesn’t he could be in for a rude surprise.
Roddick’s road to Wimbledon glory is tougher than almost any other among the top eight seeds. He faces American Rajeev Ram in the first round, who is the defending champion at the grass court tournament in Newport. He then could face Michael Llodra in the second round, who just won his second career grass court title this past week in Eastbourne. After that Roddick could face two men who have both recently beaten him at a grand slam in Philipp Kohlschreiber and big serving Marin Cilic. And if he makes it out of that gauntlet, a quarterfinal brawl with either Novak Djokovic or Lleyton Hewitt lurks. All of that before he even gets another shot at Federer.
The draw certainly is not laid out for this to be an easy year for Roddick. But with his remaining chances at Wimbledon glory becoming fewer and fewer each year, Roddick understands the fierce urgency of now.
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Robin Soderling (Ranked No. 6, Seeded No. 6) – The lone Swede in the Gentlemen’s singles draw, Soderling is the lone remaining hope to fly the flag of the once powerhouse tennis nation that produced such Wimbledon Champions as Stefan Edberg (two Wimbledon titles 1988 & 1990) and Borg (five Wimbledon titles: 1976-80).
Soderling has made a name for himself the past two years at the French Open, beating Nadal then losing in the final to Roger Federer in 2009, then doing the reverse in 2010, beating Federer but losing to Nadal in the final.
Although he’s had his biggest successes on clay, Soderling’s game should be just as well suited to grass. He has an enormous serve, hits the ball incredibly hard and flat, and isn’t averse to finishing points at the net. Though he hasn’t previously made it even as far as the Wimbledon quarterfinals, his only losses in the last three years at Wimbledon have come at the hands of either Federer or Nadal.
Soderling’s path to this year’s quarterfinals seems totally open, with no significant threats in his eighth of the draw except for perhaps No. 26 seed Marcos Baghdatis, whom Soderling would meet in the fourth round. Soderling’s draw sets him up perfectly for a quarterfinal showdown with Nadal, and possibly even another mocking by Soderling of Nadal’s many tics, like he did the last time the two met at Wimbledon back in 2007.
Those sort of antics have disappeared from Soderling’s repertoire with age. But maybe, if we’re lucky, Nadal will grate on Soderling’s last nerve again, and we’ll all be treated to another display show-stopping petulance. And,while we’re at it, maybe some great tennis to boot.
Ladies' Singles: Five Players To Watch
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Serena Williams (Ranked No. 1, Seeded No. 1) -- Serena Williams (and her grand slam pedigree) needs little introduction. She’s won 12 grand slam singles titles, three of which came on the turf of Wimbledon. She’s made the Wimbledon final five of the last eight years, and has made the quarterfinals of 13 of the last 14 grand slams. None too shabby.
Like Federer, her opposite number on the men’s side, Serena also hasn’t won a singles title since the Australian Open. But, unlike Federer, her lack of wins is mostly due to missing three full months (February, March, April) with a leg injury.
Her return from that injury was impressive, making the semifinals of Rome and the quarterfinals of the French Open on clay, her weakest surface. She seems fully healthy and rested, especially after her customary skipping of the grass warmup events.
Serena enters Wimbledon as the WTA No. 1, No. 1 seed, and bookies’ favorite. But after an easy first round match against Michelle Larcher de Brito (bring earplugs), Serena’s draw becomes extremely tough. Andrea Petkovic, her likely second round opponent, is perhaps the best unseeded player in the field.
And either Tamarine Tanasugarn or Lucie Safarova would be an extremely tough third round matchup. And it gets worse. In the fourth round, Serena could face Maria Sharapova, the only woman besides her sister to ever beat her in a grand slam final.
Serena should win all these matches (and for that matter every match before the final) convincingly, but don’t be surprised if she’s forced to fight extremely hard extremely early on.
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Venus Williams (Ranked No. 2, Seeded No. 2) – Venus Williams, who turned 30 on June 17, was the undisputed queen of grass in the last decade. From 2000 to 2009, she made seven finals, winning five of them.
Williams may be the best grass court player in the history of women’s tennis. She excels at Wimbledon even when she struggles everywhere else. Her five most recent appearances in grand slam finals all came at Wimbledon (2003, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009), not making the finals of any other slam since the 2003 Australian Open.
But Williams comes into Wimbledon this year playing well on all surfaces. She won titles in Dubai and Acapulco, and made the finals of tournaments in Miami and Madrid.
Venus has held the No. 1 ranking for only eleven weeks in her career, the second lowest total of any of the nineteen women who have held the top spot on the WTA charts (behind even lesser lights like Ana Ivanovic, Dinara Safina, and Jelena Jankovic). But Venus can get the ranking back with a Wimbledon title, a sign of the consistency she’s achieved over these past 52 weeks.
Venus has a tough road to plow in the first week of the fortnight. A potential second round opponent for her is Ekaterina Makarova, who just beat five top-20 players this past week in Eastbourne on her way to a shocking title.
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Kim Clijsters (Ranked No. 9, Seeded No. 8) – Playing in the tournament for the first time since 2006, defending US Open champion Kim Clijsters marks a complete year back on the WTA Tour with her return to Wimbledon.
Clijsters has made the semifinals of Wimbledon twice, losing to Venus Williams in 2003 and Justine Henin in 2006. Each of those players she lost to has a reputation for being far more capable of summoning the killer instinct needed to crush an opponent than is the player whom many fans refer to as "Saint Kimmie." And on the fast grasses of the All-England Lawn Tennis Club, that ability to go straight for the jugular each and every point is crucial for success.
It’s tough to say with any confidence exactly what type of tennis Clijsters is playing at the moment. After playing atrocious tennis in losing at the third round of the Australian Open, Clijsters won Miami (trouncing a wounded Venus Williams in the final). Clijsters skipped most all of the clay court swing, due in part to injury, but also likely due to her bizarre disdain for clay courts on which she’s had a pretty good deal of success. Clijsters looked phenomenal in the early goings of her grass court tune-up event in Eastbourne, but then flamed out against Victoria Azarenka in the quarterfinals.
The first few steps of Clijsters’ draw at Wimbledon seem fairly straightforward, but it gets tough fast in the fourth round, where she will meet either her nemesis No. 17 Henin or No. 12 Nadia Petrova, the woman who beat her 6-0, 6-1, at this year’s Australian Open. If Clijsters can make it past that round, she should definitely make the semifinal, where a potential throwdown with Venus Williams looms.
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Maria Sharapova (Ranked No. 17, Seeded No. 16) – The only past champion not named "Williams" in the draw, Maria Sharapova returns to the site of her breakout 2004 title with all sorts of questions surrounding her game. Her shoulder has been iffy for years now, and she has been constantly changing her service motion to compensate for that injury with little success.
Although Sharapova had her biggest initial successes on grass, she hasn’t made the semifinals of Wimbledon since 2006. She lost in the second round of the tournament each of the last two years, to Alla Kudryavtseva and Gisela Dulko, giving each the biggest win of her career in the process.
Sharapova hasn’t made it to the semifinals of a grand slam since she won the 2008 Australian Open, but she’s showed occasional flashes of excellent tennis recently. She wrapped up her clay court season with a title in Strasbourg and a gutsy loss to Henin at the French Open, which she followed with a run to the finals of her grass-court preparation event in Birmingham. If her serve (especially her second serve) is decent, there’s no reason she can’t win a few matches.
Sharapova’s draw got a lot easier once Kateryna Bondarenko, her original first round opponent, was made the No. 34 seed and moved to a different part of the draw. Sharapova now opens against lucky loser Anastasia Pivovarova, before likely facing a tough opponent in No. 24 Daniela Hantuchova in the third round. But Hantuchova’s toughness pales in comparison to Sharapova’s likely fourth round opponent, which is none other than No. 1 Serena Williams.
There’s no reason to give Sharapova much of any chance in that rematch of the 2004 Wimbledon final, but then again she wasn’t given much of any chance in that match, either. And look who won.
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Justine Henin (Ranked No. 18, Seeded No. 17) – Justine Henin has said that she came out of her (brief) retirement so that she could win Wimbledon, the only grand slam title her résumé lacks.
And her return to tennis started phenomenally well, with a runs to the final of the Australian Open where she lost in three sets to Serena Williams. But after that fast start, her results slowed significantly. She lost early in Indian Wells and Madrid, though she did win a clay court event in Stuttgart. But Henin fell in the fourth round of the French Open to Samantha Stosur, her first loss at the event since 2004.
Opting not to enter the stacked field at the grass-court warm-up tournament in Eastbourne (a field that included twenty-one of the thirty-two Wimbledon seeds), Henin played last week in the smaller UNICEF Open in the unpronounceable Dutch locale of ‘s-Hertogenbosch.
The decision paid off. Henin got the practice she desired, winning five rounds against players outside the top 30 on her way to the title.
But it’s much tougher to hide at Wimbledon. Henin could face big-hitting No. 12 Petrova in the third round, and then No. 8 Clijsters in the fourth. If she can make it through those matches, a semifinal with Venus Williams likely awaits.
Ben Rothenberg writes about tennis at The Daily Forehand, SB Nation's tennis blog. Check out his Wimbledon predictions here.
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