Where Do Players Come From? Examining NHL Draft Patterns From 1995 To 2005

By Derek Zona - NHL Contributor

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Jun 24, 2010 - My last column looked at the success rates of each team in the NHL draft during the time period 1999-2005.  The Atlanta Thrashers and New Jersey Devils writers each followed suit by looking at team success rates. 

Scott Reynolds, a brilliant writer at The Copper & Blue, looked at league preferences by team since the lockout, but I want to take the larger view - overall in the years 1999-2005, where did these players come from?  It's not a surprise to see the WHL and the OHL at the top of the list, though the amount of Russians might surprise some.

League	Total	% Total
WHL	299	15.3%
OHL	295	15.1%
Russia	201	10.3%
NCAA	200	10.2%
QMJHL	178	9.1%
Sweden	140	7.2%
Finland	125	6.4%
Czech	108	5.5%
USHL	102	5.2%
Junior-A	87	4.4%
USHS	80	4.1%
Slovakia	48	2.5%
Junior-B	35	1.8%
Swiss-A	28	1.4%

 

The CHL combined to account for nearly 40% of all drafted players in this period.  Europe combined for nearly 35% and the various components of the U.S. system combined for nearly 20%.  The missing percents came from various levels of Junior-A and Junior-B hockey and other European leagues.  The first and second rounds were skewed more towards the leagues at the top of the list.  The WHL and OHL alone combined for 45.6% of all first round choices and 37% of all second round choices.  The NCAA accounted for 15% of first round choices and 12% of second round choices.

What of the "career player" metric used in the last column to measure draft success by team?  Remember, league-wide, 16.1% of all drafted players became career players, so how does each league and/or country stack up?  The chart below shows the ratio of players drafted from each league that eventually became career players.

League	Total	Career Total	%
WHL	299	60	20.1%
OHL	295	71	24.1%
Russia	201	16	8.0%
NCAA	200	40	20.0%
QMJHL	178	25	14.0%
Sweden	140	25	17.9%
Draft Avg.	1958	316	16.1%
Finland	125	19	15.2%
Czech	108	17	15.7%
USHL	102	16	15.7%
Junior-A	87	4	4.6%
USHS	80	7	8.8%
Slovakia	48	5	10.4%
Junior-B	35	3	8.6%
Swiss-A	28	3	10.7%

 

Drafting from Russia during this time period was a colossal flop.  Only 8% of Russian players drafted developed into career players, half of the average, and worse yet, one-third of the rate of the top league - the OHL.  The Tampa Bay Lightning took fifteen players from Russia and had one turn into a career player, and that was Evgeny Artyukhin.  The Devils took nine Russians during this period, fifth-most in the league and went 0-9. Three of those nine were in the second round.  I've yet to sit down and go through this case-by-case to see if players weren't coming to North America, or these were poor picks.  The QMJHL, Finland, The Czech Republic, and the USHL were all slightly below average.

Drafting from Junior-A, Junior-B and from U.S. High Schools was also poor as the three combined to turn 7% of their draftees into career players.  Slovakia and the Swiss leagues were only slightly ahead.

The OHL was the big winner with the WHL and NCAA close behind.  Drafting from these leagues was a much safer bet overall and it was reflected in the picks weighted by round.  The league loaded up on players from the OHL, WHL and NCAA in the first two rounds and then started taking risks in the later rounds on players from the other leagues.

Read More: 2010 nhl entry draft, 2010 nhl draft, whl, ohl, chl, qmjhl, sel, sm-liiga, Evgeny Artyukhin (RW - WPG), New Jersey Devils, Winnipeg Jets, Tampa Bay Lightning

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